Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

One other thing I want to mention is for everyone that considers the " bounce" which I feel is over represented and misunderstood often, a prime horse to possibly " bounce" today is Journalism.

Wanting to lay 4th , 5th or 6th easily, which is his perfect setup, he was forced lay 10th early. He ran a great race. So is today for him a bounce candidate? Yes. While I hope not for the connections who got hosed in the Derby, if he runs flat, that would be a bounce. I'm not talking about Beyer numbers or figures, I'm talking about physical effort and excursion which the horse reached deeply for to run the race he did.
Hope that makes sense.

[JBEX]

One other thing I want to mention is for everyone that considers the " bounce" which I feel is over represented and misunderstood often, a prime horse to possibly " bounce" today is Journalism.

Wanting to lay 4th , 5th or 6th easily, which is his perfect setup, he was forced lay 10th early. He ran a great race. So is today for him a bounce candidate? Yes. While I hope not for the connections who got hosed in the Derby, if he runs flat, that would be a bounce. I'm not talking about Beyer numbers or figures, I'm talking about physical effort and excursion which the horse reached deeply for to run the race he did.
Hope that makes sense.

guess no matter how good the trainer is you just don't know till they run .. have to think with his pedigree they are considering what his resume will look like at the end of his career for stud fee
purposes and as you know that money dwarfs purses..I have an above avg amount of confidence that he's ok to go and if he works out a good trip he's going to win..will there be any value..no and that's why I like the idea of going for the exacta with him on top

[str]

I've gone through the Preakness field here is my take.

1. Goal Oriented: Most likely tries to get the lead from the one post. If not, just off it down inside but because he was "climbing" so much that it warranted a mention in the form from the chart caller, and that climbing was most likely due to the spray back or kickback that flies from the horses in front, all signs point to him trying to avoid that situation. For me, he is speed.

2. Journalism: Has done nothing wrong in all 6 starts. I can't expect him to today. He is the heavy favorite and deservedly so. Evan a bounce as people call it, still puts him 2nd or 3rd in all probability. On paper, no doubt the best horse today.

3. American Promise: Speed and or early position. As long as the other speeds run to their capabilities, I just don't see it here. He should be prominent early but I don't see him able to hold off the closers with a duel up front IMO.

4. Heart Of Honor: Looks like he runs mid pack early. Next to no form to go on. He is a nice horse I am pretty sure. But, today, and with little if anything to go on, If he wins , I lose.

5. Pay Billy: Local horse gets to swing for the fences. He will try but if he gets there, I won't.

6. River Thames: This horse looks like he could improve as he runs more. He could run well today and at high odds, I think I could use him in exotics.

7. Sandman: Most likely better than his last race. The question is... how much better? Lower odds has me looking elsewhere.

8. Clever Again: Speed. And three across the track it very well could be. If any of those can get loose and slow it down, that horse will have a huge chance. That said, for me, I will toss and hope for that 3 horse duel and fast splits early.

9. Gosger: Probably is allowed, if he cooperates, and I would think there is a good chance for that, to settle off the top three across the track and lay 4th, save a bit of ground around the first turn, advance when needed to keep his position and finish well. At nice odds, he will be on my tickets.

At current odds my plays would be:
Gosger to win at 20-1

An exacta box of 2,6,9. Then see the payoffs and most likely use the 9 with the 2 a bit more assuming the 6-9 box is big.

A triple box of 2,6,9

Hope that makes sense.

Let's get lucky!

GL everyone.

Who do you all like?

[JBEX]

Without even seeing the form yet, I would be way more surprised if all three ran off the board than if all three won.

If anyone is just looking for action, play these three and you can rest assured that you will get a hard trying run for your money on all of them.
I don't think there is another sire I would say that about more confidently than I do Army Mules.

what do you think is a tougher thing to do first time str .. a dirt sprinter trying a turf sprint or a dirt router trying a turf route..both are in good current form running on dirt .. I think the sprint is tougher because there's less to no room for error

this would apply to brooklyn drew (AM CD1) as it's a first try turf sprint .. going to discount the slow start debutas experience (actually be her 2nd with that) and possibly came back too quick last start for the poor performance (good current form) .. the latter is certainly a guess as to the reason

[str]

I agree. The sprint would be more difficult.
The horse is asked to run at top speed from the gate on unfamiliar terrain.
With all the relax in route turf races, it has to be easier to adapt to any footing worries the horse might have.

if he has a turf work like a 1/2 mile, that would be a big relief for the horse.

[JBEX]

might negate some of the lack of experience if she's able to get the lead ..doesn't look impossible to do in that field

[JBEX]

army mule saturday



monmouth 7 @ 3:56
#1 bel pensiero (3-1)

monmouth 8 @ 4:28
#1 ceepeegee (9-2)

churchill 1 @ 6pm
#7 brooklyn drew (4-1)




.

just moving forward

[JBEX]

I've gone through the Preakness field here is my take.

1. Goal Oriented: Most likely tries to get the lead from the one post. If not, just off it down inside but because he was "climbing" so much that it warranted a mention in the form from the chart caller, and that climbing was most likely due to the spray back or kickback that flies from the horses in front, all signs point to him trying to avoid that situation. For me, he is speed.

2. Journalism: Has done nothing wrong in all 6 starts. I can't expect him to today. He is the heavy favorite and deservedly so. Evan a bounce as people call it, still puts him 2nd or 3rd in all probability. On paper, no doubt the best horse today.

3. American Promise: Speed and or early position. As long as the other speeds run to their capabilities, I just don't see it here. He should be prominent early but I don't see him able to hold off the closers with a duel up front IMO.

4. Heart Of Honor: Looks like he runs mid pack early. Next to no form to go on. He is a nice horse I am pretty sure. But, today, and with little if anything to go on, If he wins , I lose.

5. Pay Billy: Local horse gets to swing for the fences. He will try but if he gets there, I won't.

6. River Thames: This horse looks like he could improve as he runs more. He could run well today and at high odds, I think I could use him in exotics.

7. Sandman: Most likely better than his last race. The question is... how much better? Lower odds has me looking elsewhere.

8. Clever Again: Speed. And three across the track it very well could be. If any of those can get loose and slow it down, that horse will have a huge chance. That said, for me, I will toss and hope for that 3 horse duel and fast splits early.

9. Gosger: Probably is allowed, if he cooperates, and I would think there is a good chance for that, to settle off the top three across the track and lay 4th, save a bit of ground around the first turn, advance when needed to keep his position and finish well. At nice odds, he will be on my tickets.

At current odds my plays would be:
Gosger to win at 20-1

An exacta box of 2,6,9. Then see the payoffs and most likely use the 9 with the 2 a bit more assuming the 6-9 box is big.

A triple box of 2,6,9

Hope that makes sense.

Let's get lucky!

GL everyone.

Who do you all like?

while journalism factoring trouble was obviously the best horse,nice call with gosger str ..had he won the exacta with the win bet would've been a really nice hit

[Easy-Rider 66]

good run by Gosger STR. Just got beat by a pretty good horse

[mrginandtonic]

Sir STR, just curious on what is your take on Prat's ride on the 1- Goal Oriented? Didn't get a chance to watch it live today, just saw the replay. According to commentator Bailey, "Prat crowded Rispoli". What did you see? Make no mistake, I never like Prat so that's my personal bias. Thanks.

[str]

while journalism factoring trouble was obviously the best horse,nice call with gosger str ..had he won the exacta with the win bet would've been a really nice hit

Thanks JBEX.

I thought that outside post with all that run to the 1st turn and speed inside would allow this horse plenty of time to find a stride, be left alone, and settle in. That is exactly what happened. Had he been in the 1-6 post or thereabouts, it could have been a completely different story.
Also think that the trainer, Walsh is one of the very best around and maybe flies under the radar in these types of races. From a Beyer number standpoint, he was looking to improve off two solid 93 numbers and expected an improvement while others had improved off their last numbers in the race before . It just seemed to make sense. And you know I always look twice at the BOX post position.

One thing I noticed was the 1 minute to post time money dump when the 9 horse went from 19-1 to 14-1 in one click. That is so wrong on every level for bettors. Totally bull crap for management to allow those syndicates to get the rebates they get while ordinally fans don't have the same opportunity. Shame on racing for facilitating that. It's like management does everything they can to alienate the fanbase, and somehow they continue to get away with it.

[str]

good run by Gosger STR. Just got beat by a pretty good horse

Still can't combine quotes but my last answer was for you as well EZ. Thank you.

[JBEX]

if things go well for journalism this is what I think his road to the breeders cup will be


much as I would've liked to see him go 1 1/2 miles @ belmont the 10f version at saratoga is perfect off yesterday's race .. run him in san diego handicap (@ 1 1/16 miles) last week of july and then pacific classic (@ 1 1/4 miles) last week of august ..about 9 weeks after that is the bc classic @ del mar


have to think they'll go the dmr path (vs the travers) because of the breeders cup and trainer is based out there

[str]

Sir STR, just curious on what is your take on Prat's ride on the 1- Goal Oriented? Didn't get a chance to watch it live today, just saw the replay. According to commentator Bailey, "Prat crowded Rispoli". What did you see? Make no mistake, I never like Prat so that's my personal bias. Thanks.

Hi Mr. GandT ! Great to see you in here.

The main takeaway here is that everyday , normal, average riders cannot do what the top 1% can. That is no knock, it is just the very best of the best is what I mean. I fully expected what occurred to happen when the winning rider decided to stay inside. With those top riders, you just do not get the holes the way you do with everyday riding. He did however take it one step to far. The analysis from Jerry Bailey was spot on. It was just the last move that went too far. Up until then, it was fair game.
You do not see that very often on a normal day at a normal track. There is almost always room to get through on the fence in day to day races. But not the best of the best, and not in Grade 1's for sure.

Did you hear the name drop by Mike Tirico when he mentioned the head Stewart Adam Campola when talking about the incident. Adam is an old friend of mine. He galloped horses for me way back in the day and has made a career out of the track and climbed to the top as the head Stewart. Really nice, classy guy. Good for him!

[str]

if things go well for journalism this is what I think his road to the breeders cup will be


much as I would've liked to see him go 1 1/2 miles @ belmont the 10f version at saratoga is perfect off yesterday's race .. run him in san diego handicap (@ 1 1/16 miles) last week of july and then pacific classic (@ 1 1/4 miles) last week of august ..about 9 weeks after that is the bc classic @ del mar


have to think they'll go the dmr path (vs the travers) because of the breeders cup and trainer is based out there

I guess I would need to think about that but, it does make sense being as that is his home base. And the San Diego Cap and the Pacific are real nice races but for a resume as a stallion, not much tops the Travers.
I guess it just depends on the overall thought process of the team. And, he could always take that run at the Travers as a 4 year old. So many ways to go and it is cool to watch the decision making along the way.
Good stuff JBEX.

[JBEX]

I guess I would need to think about that but, it does make sense being as that is his home base. And the San Diego Cap and the Pacific are real nice races but for a resume as a stallion, not much tops the Travers.
I guess it just depends on the overall thought process of the team. And, he could always take that run at the Travers as a 4 year old. So many ways to go and it is cool to watch the decision making along the way.
Good stuff JBEX.

thanks str

agree with the prestige of winning the travers over the pacific classic .. in addition this year the belmont will be the same trip as the former so
that holds some appeal ..with the bc being at dmr though it makes the call a little trickier and will be interesting to see the path they choose .. i still think two @ dmr but certainly some merits to running in the travers

guess you also have to factor in the cross country round trip to come back to saratoga to run in the travers ..that's kind of unappealing I would think ..plenty of time to decide but i would guess the connections will have this on their mind's even before the belmont

[str]

thanks str

agree with the prestige of winning the travers over the pacific classic .. in addition this year the belmont will be the same trip as the former so
that holds some appeal ..with the bc being at dmr though it makes the call a little trickier and will be interesting to see the path they choose .. i still think two @ dmr but certainly some merits to running in the travers

guess you also have to factor in the cross country round trip to come back to saratoga to run in the travers ..that's kind of unappealing I would think ..plenty of time to decide but i would guess the connections will have this on their mind's even before the belmont

Maybe not a decision edged in stone but certainly a strong lean. At that level, the road gets mapped out early and revisited almost daily.

[Madison]

good run by Gosger STR. Just got beat by a pretty good horse

You are tough my friend. "pretty good horse". That was some performance yesterday!!

[Madison]

Thanks JBEX.

I thought that outside post with all that run to the 1st turn and speed inside would allow this horse plenty of time to find a stride, be left alone, and settle in. That is exactly what happened. Had he been in the 1-6 post or thereabouts, it could have been a completely different story.
Also think that the trainer, Walsh is one of the very best around and maybe flies under the radar in these types of races. From a Beyer number standpoint, he was looking to improve off two solid 93 numbers and expected an improvement while others had improved off their last numbers in the race before . It just seemed to make sense. And you know I always look twice at the BOX post position.

One thing I noticed was the 1 minute to post time money dump when the 9 horse went from 19-1 to 14-1 in one click. That is so wrong on every level for bettors. Totally bull crap for management to allow those syndicates to get the rebates they get while ordinally fans don't have the same opportunity. Shame on racing for facilitating that. It's like management does everything they can to alienate the fanbase, and somehow they continue to get away with it.

That first qtr/break was much indicative of how one would gain advantages in greyhound racing. Let the 8 slice the entire field to the rail and allow the 9 a gigantic alley to the first turn. Nothing against the 9. Just saying.

[JBEX]

hey str

if you happened to see my thread aqu 6 had two 2nd time starters ,one by frankel and the other by dubawi..the frankel a 4yo gelding and dubawi 3yo colt.. my thought is if you spend $400k + to breed to him you don't want the horse to be a gelding in his 1st start .. that much money you want to have some chance at having him be a stallion..I understand that it really has to happen for some to be effective runners

then I was thinking this..if you can afford to shell out that kind of money on a stallion it's probably (nah definitely) something you are comfortably able to do .. doesn't work out not going to effect your overall finances and the consolation prize is you might have a horse who has a better than avg chance to earn a significant amount of money ..so I feel in general it's not as bad a thing as I have made it out to be ..do you think a horse from either of these 2 sires or one of our elite 4 has just as good a chance to be a top runner if he starts off or within his first few starts is gelded ?

[JBEX]

also what would you guess journalism's trouble cost him in time ? mine would be about 1.5 seconds

[Jellymancan]

The way journalism won yesterday was something else. We’ll see the path they take with this horse, but something special might be brewing with this one.

[JBEX]

The way journalism won yesterday was something else. We’ll see the path they take with this horse, but something special might be brewing with this one.

agree jelly ..with what he cost and being by curlin I think there's an extremely high ceiling for how good he can be ..possibly even better things to come

[JBEX]

army mule

horseshoe 2 @ 2:41

#2 lalily (9-2)

.

[str]

You are tough my friend. "pretty good horse". That was some performance yesterday!!

Thanks Madison.

[str]

hey str

if you happened to see my thread aqu 6 had two 2nd time starters ,one by frankel and the other by dubawi..the frankel a 4yo gelding and dubawi 3yo colt.. my thought is if you spend $400k + to breed to him you don't want the horse to be a gelding in his 1st start .. that much money you want to have some chance at having him be a stallion..I understand that it really has to happen for some to be effective runners

then I was thinking this..if you can afford to shell out that kind of money on a stallion it's probably (nah definitely) something you are comfortably able to do .. doesn't work out not going to effect your overall finances and the consolation prize is you might have a horse who has a better than avg chance to earn a significant amount of money ..so I feel in general it's not as bad a thing as I have made it out to be ..do you think a horse from either of these 2 sires or one of our elite 4 has just as good a chance to be a top runner if he starts off or within his first few starts is gelded ?

You can bet that they really did not want to have to geld that horse. Sounds to me like he was probably a very heavy horse that had difficulty trimming down. Now compound that with leg problems and they likely Decided that there was no way he would make the races without dropping 150 pounds or so. They did not want to guild him without running him. What circumstance is most likely left them no choice.

They probably just figured let’s try to win some races with him, knowing that he had no chance to do that staying a Colt.

[str]

also what would you guess journalism's trouble cost him in time ? mine would be about 1.5 seconds

I suppose that sounds right, but you have to factor in that if he was two or three in front inside the eight pole, he would not have been pushed that last eighth as hard, and therefore most likely would have slowed down at least some.

[str]

The way journalism won yesterday was something else. We’ll see the path they take with this horse, but something special might be brewing with this one.

Yes jelly, I agree. I am wondering, though, if some of that gap was closed because the leader was out of gas, having never been that distance before. I want to look at those fractions a little harder and see how slow the leader finished. I’ll try to get to that tomorrow. I do want to remember to do that.

[JBEX]

I suppose that sounds right, but you have to factor in that if he was two or three in front inside the eight pole, he would not have been pushed that last eighth as hard, and therefore most likely would have slowed down at least some.

so if we go by about 1.5 secs or 7 lengths then you would add 11 points to his 98 beyer giving him a very respectable 109 ..if you factor in cruising to the wire way in front that might lower it to 106-107 ..he ran a 108 in the santa anita derby so that falls in line nicely with this adjusted effort .. these are very solid figures for a 3yo at this stage

[JBEX]

one other thing I think is worth considering regarding journalism's path forward.. with them running the belmont at saratoga (if they decide to run him) at the travers distance,assuming he wins or runs well in losing,to me that's less incentive to come back and try the travers..been there,done that kind of thing..back to home base and gear up for the breeders cup at del mar running his preps there which ,as I mentioned before, I think would be the san diego and pacific classic

[str]

one other thing I think is worth considering regarding journalism's path forward.. with them running the belmont at saratoga (if they decide to run him) at the travers distance,assuming he wins or runs well in losing,to me that's less incentive to come back and try the travers..been there,done that kind of thing..back to home base and gear up for the breeders cup at del mar running his preps there which ,as I mentioned before, I think would be the san diego and pacific classic

I would agree with that. Makes sense

[str]

Did you folks see Michael Buffer at the Preakness? IMO, about 2 sentences of him is awesome. But several minutes seemed painful.
I don’t know you guys. I’m really worried about Md. racing as we move forward. I will get to discuss this with a new friend I made who is the chairman of the racing commission fairly soon.
A very knowledgeable man who has been in racing for a long time. I’m hopeful for success but have to admit I am nervous about the future. I do know he will do everything he can to keep it viable.

[JBEX]

Did you folks see Michael Buffer at the Preakness? IMO, about 2 sentences of him is awesome. But several minutes seemed painful.
I don’t know you guys. I’m really worried about Md. racing as we move forward. I will get to discuss this with a new friend I made who is the chairman of the racing commission fairly soon.
A very knowledgeable man who has been in racing for a long time. I’m hopeful for success but have to admit I am nervous about the future. I do know he will do everything he can to keep it viable.

agree..too long for his voice

[mrginandtonic]

Hi Mr. GandT ! Great to see you in here.

The main takeaway here is that everyday , normal, average riders cannot do what the top 1% can. That is no knock, it is just the very best of the best is what I mean. I fully expected what occurred to happen when the winning rider decided to stay inside. With those top riders, you just do not get the holes the way you do with everyday riding. He did however take it one step to far. The analysis from Jerry Bailey was spot on. It was just the last move that went too far. Up until then, it was fair game.
You do not see that very often on a normal day at a normal track. There is almost always room to get through on the fence in day to day races. But not the best of the best, and not in Grade 1's for sure.

Did you hear the name drop by Mike Tirico when he mentioned the head Stewart Adam Campola when talking about the incident. Adam is an old friend of mine. He galloped horses for me way back in the day and has made a career out of the track and climbed to the top as the head Stewart. Really nice, classy guy. Good for him!

Thank you very much for your insight. Much appreciated. What he did just reminded me of Maximum Security when he was disqualified from the Derby win. If I had to bet it over again, I still would have picked Journalism for the Derby. I think he was the best horse; I just think that Rispoli may have moved a little too soon. If he goes to Belmont, my money will be on him again. He is the best horse for 1 1/4 (not sure if it was actually run at 1 1/2).

So glad to hear that your friend has moved up the ladder. It is a tough game, but if you are really passionated. You will succeed. Kudos to your friend and best wishes.

Talk again soon, take care and lets have fun at the races.

[JBEX]

army mule

finger lakes 6 @ 3:25
#8 trojan mule (8-1)