Horse Racing questions and answers

[str]

hey str


do you think todd might have a strong opinion on KB chances in the derby assuming he gets a reasonable trip..could he be thinking anywhere from he's in over his head to haven't nearly gotten to the bottom and he could easily get it done..the conversation with the owners is going to be an honest assessment and not sugar-coated I would assume

realize he's got forte and the other besides KB will also probably be a top 5 contender but that shouldn't really come in to play with his assessment of KB chances ..would you say each one is a separate entity and discussed with it's owner(s) privately ?





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Q. do you think todd might have a strong opinion on KB chances in the derby assuming he gets a reasonable trip..could he be thinking anywhere from he's in over his head to haven't nearly gotten to the bottom and he could easily get it done..the


A. I am sure he does have an opinion on his chances in the Derby assuming all things being equal.
He could be thinking over his head or not . We will never know his true opinion I don't think, as he is forced to play politics with the owners of all his horses. He just can't say horse A is way better than the rest I don't think. Even if he thinks it. At least not at this stage. He has to let the game play out some more IMO. It's the one race a year where people just go nuts and can't think rationally in some cases. Not saying this is that though with Todd. But his owners ? Probably.
I'm sure he has an opinion though.

Q.the conversation with the owners is going to be an honest assessment and not sugar-coated I would assume

A. Yes. In Todd's position I would think the owners would welcome that. If he was a small stable, he might have to blow smoke to the owners to keep them from thinking about giving the horse to a big name trainer.

Q. realize he's got forte and the other besides KB will also probably be a top 5 contender but that shouldn't really come in to play with his assessment of KB chances

A. I would not think so. I think it is more of an overview of the entire race and all the horses as compared to the horse in questions ability as Todd currently sees it.


Q. would you say each one is a separate entity and discussed with it's owner(s) privately ?


A. Yes. The other owners have no business talking about someone else's horse in a private conversation.


But... because this is the Derby, the craziest race of the year every year, a lot of "run in the Derby questions" have probably already been answered. Mainly by the horses performance. It's obvious all were given paths to get to the Derby. If they passed those tests, there really isn't a lot of deciding at this point. Just as if they had gotten beat it would be pretty clear they probably should not.

Any of these that do not run now are struggling with a minor problem or setback that will negate their chances of being ready.

Hope all that makes sense JBEX.

[JBEX]

makes sense that you can't get into one is better than the other with the owners but of course he has his own personal opinion

not surprised and only fair that what's going on with a particular horse along the way is none of the other owners business



think circumstances are more interesting than normal this edition with the top trainer having 3 horses and amongst them the best and the other 2 possibly top 5..then throw into that one of them (KB) is coming in with only 3 races to me makes how good he is a lot more intriguing



thanks str




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[Madison]

Just FYI, The ressurected Repo Rocks runs 4/8 AQ in the Carter. Been worldbeater of late?? Not sure what's up with this one??

Is CA done as far as overall dominance? Seems to many 5 horse races and Delmar begging for imports??

[JBEX]

Just FYI, The ressurected Repo Rocks runs 4/8 AQ in the Carter. Been worldbeater of late?? Not sure what's up with this one??

Is CA done as far as overall dominance? Seems to many 5 horse races and Delmar begging for imports??

won't be able to look at pp's till tomorrow but I will Madison

I don't look at cal racing that much anymore but when I did there seemed to be ,as you said,too many small fields..imo for at least a couple of decades s cal racing hasn't been close to on par with east coast venues

[str]

Just FYI, The ressurected Repo Rocks runs 4/8 AQ in the Carter. Been worldbeater of late?? Not sure what's up with this one??

Is CA done as far as overall dominance? Seems to many 5 horse races and Delmar begging for imports??

I need to see Repo Rocks PP's before I can comment. I need to see what is going on.


As for Cal. racing, IMO the product is weakened with the lack of overall competition but as long as owners are willing to give very expensive horses and some of the best stock coming out in the yearling sales from year to year, to that certain trainer, there will most likely be very solid horses coming from there. Unless of course they cannot make the big races due to injury.

[JBEX]

Just FYI, The ressurected Repo Rocks runs 4/8 AQ in the Carter. Been worldbeater of late?? Not sure what's up with this one??

Is CA done as far as overall dominance? Seems to many 5 horse races and Delmar begging for imports??

new trainer seems to have figured him out..todd and saffie joseph's are solid but rr going to be a tough out ..imo 7f hits him right between the eyes ..haven't seen ml but he'll be no secret

[Easy-Rider 66]

Hey STR: I read that R. Dutrow Starts this THUR will stalls at Belmont. His first Horse to stall in a 3 year old filly called Recognize that was previously trained by Bill Mott. I also read that Dutrow was the trainer of Big Brown and 2005 Horse of the year St Liam. I did not know that. BOL to him. will be following his progress this Summer.

[str]

Taking the 4- Mage (ML 10-1) with Saez on board; the best front running jockey right now IMO. He needs the points and will control the speed and need to hold off Forte; Exacta Box 4,11,12. GL all

Sorry I missed this Mr. G and T.

I would have approached that race the same way. Who am I going to play to try and beat the favorite?

Shame your horse got left and had to pass Forte only to be passed by him at the end. Your horse ran great. Very nice call. And yeah, Saez is a top rider especially on the front end.

Look forward to your Derby pick, now only a few weeks away.

All the best sir.

[str]

Just FYI, The ressurected Repo Rocks runs 4/8 AQ in the Carter. Been worldbeater of late?? Not sure what's up with this one??

Is CA done as far as overall dominance? Seems to many 5 horse races and Delmar begging for imports??

new trainer seems to have figured him out..todd and saffie joseph's are solid but rr going to be a tough out ..imo 7f hits him right between the eyes ..haven't seen ml but he'll be no secret

Just saw the form and yes, Ness has this horse really happy. He is performing at a very high level. In that spot, which seems to be a great distance for him to try, he looks really tough even though a few others are pretty solid.
Agree with both things JBEX eluded to.

[JBEX]

new trainer seems to have figured him out..todd and saffie joseph's are solid but rr going to be a tough out ..imo 7f hits him right between the eyes ..haven't seen ml but he'll be no secret

army mule's final race which he won by about 8 ..shameless plug

[Madison]

Just saw the form and yes, Ness has this horse really happy. He is performing at a very high level. In that spot, which seems to be a great distance for him to try, he looks really tough even though a few others are pretty solid.
Agree with both things JBEX eluded to.

Thanks guys!!

[Easy-Rider 66]

Earlier on today's AQU card, Rick Dutrow made his first claim, taking Dame Cinco, who finished last in race 3, for $40K. Owner Sanford Goldfarb. Dutrow was granted stalls by NYRA and he is setting up shop at Belmont Park.

[str]

army mule's final race which he won by about 8 ..shameless plug

Shameless indeed.

But I liked it !

[str]

Hey STR: I read that R. Dutrow Starts this THUR will stalls at Belmont. His first Horse to stall in a 3 year old filly called Recognize that was previously trained by Bill Mott. I also read that Dutrow was the trainer of Big Brown and 2005 Horse of the year St Liam. I did not know that. BOL to him. will be following his progress this Summer.

Earlier on today's AQU card, Rick Dutrow made his first claim, taking Dame Cinco, who finished last in race 3, for $40K. Owner Sanford Goldfarb. Dutrow was granted stalls by NYRA and he is setting up shop at Belmont Park.

Someone else , a friend from my racetrack years that I stay in touch with, asked me about Ricky yesterday.( I know, it's Rick but when he was 12-18 it was Ricky. Old habits die hard). I'll say in here what I said yesterday.

All Ricky ever wanted to do his whole life after experiencing being at the barn and working for his dad when he was 15-18, was to wake up each morning and go to the barn and be around all that goes on at the barn each morning. Having been unable to do that for the last 10 years must have been terrible for him. Well, he finally gets to do that again and this morning.

It must feel like Christmas morning when you were a kid to him. I have no doubt that he was there probably by 5 AM, watching his new horse eat a scoop of oats for breakfast. Seeing what her temperature is, what her stall looks like, how much she drank last night, how much dinner she ate, watching her walk the shed and checking her legs, eyes, mouth, teeth, feet, heck, everything, for the first time.

Just to see it, feel it, smell it, and I'm sure , have some old friends drop by during the course of this morning, will be a morning he will not soon forget.

And when I say that is all he ever wanted, I'm not kidding. I wish I could better define the feeling I know he is experiencing right now, a better story teller could. But trust me, this is like heaven for him.

I am sure he has been laughing and smiling all morning already. With more to come before lunch time for his new horse at 10:30.

I am so happy for him. You know, I guess people say this more than they should when trying to define a name person that many know. But if you ever met Rick, I mean the real Rick. Not the TV guy or when he is being interviewed, but Rick in the shed row on a typical morning, and just being there, it would be very difficult to not like him. What a piece of work he is.

Just thinking about him this morning has me smiling and on the verge of laughing, just because that is exactly who he is. That and a tremendous trainer that I have no doubt will be doing very well for himself sooner rather than later. If you want to, go to Equibase and look for trainers stats and plug in his last name. You will find him and when you do you will see stats that are incredible.
I guess when people see that, they figure he must be cheating. I'd say LOL but there is nothing funny about it. Ricky doesn't cheat or use illegal drugs. Nor does his brother, his late father, and all of us that learned under Dicky and went on to win our share of races. Not sure how many. I guess about 15,000 races? Something like that. And if you took all our names and added up all the positive tests and all the starts, all tolled together they would be many more starts and many less positives collectively, than more than a few trainers that are somehow still training.

It is great to see Mr. Goldfarb stand behind Rick and get him going again. There are others waiting in the wings as well. It will take a little time to get more stalls and the right stock but have no doubt that Ricky will be there, every morning, doing his favorite thing in the world.
Being at the barn and training in the morning. I'm so happy for him.

Thanks EZ !

[Easy-Rider 66]

OK STR Thx for the Detailed take about R. Dutrow. I will be paying close attention to see how he Fares this summer on the NYRA circuit. BOL to him and you.

[Madison]

Watch Guns & Graces in the Ashland. Very tough group. I big move up to 600K stakes on 3 races but I really like the way this one steps into this one.

[Madison]

Bet to show. Ran 4th. Not sure why last 2 got left but this guys a runner.

[str]

Watch Guns & Graces in the Ashland. Very tough group. I big move up to 600K stakes on 3 races but I really like the way this one steps into this one.

Bet to show. Ran 4th. Not sure why last 2 got left but this guys a runner.

I watched the replay and she broke ok but IMO she looked a bit stiff behind early. It took her a while to get underneath herself. ( hope that makes sense. Let's say more fluid in her running action. ). The rider was wanting her to move 1/2 way down the backside but again, it took her until the turn to start to gain momentum.
Not a bad effort the last 1/2 mile but she just couldn't put it together when it was needed.

[Madison]

I watched the replay and she broke ok but IMO she looked a bit stiff behind early. It took her a while to get underneath herself. ( hope that makes sense. Let's say more fluid in her running action. ). The rider was wanting her to move 1/2 way down the backside but again, it took her until the turn to start to gain momentum.
Not a bad effort the last 1/2 mile but she just couldn't put it together when it was needed.

Yeah, kind of a curious stretch turn. Seemed like rail opened up wide open and he went from the rail to 8 wide for the stretch run.

[JBEX]

just so you know str "shadow dragon"(army mule) is going in the wood memorial today..the onei asked you why mott was running in Florida when his last race was bad against NY statebreds..ran a good 2nd that day..just watch races with (AM) running..also have a futures position on "hit show" so that's enough for me

[str]

just so you know str "shadow dragon"(army mule) is going in the wood memorial today..the onei asked you why mott was running in Florida when his last race was bad against NY statebreds..ran a good 2nd that day..just watch races with (AM) running..also have a futures position on "hit show" so that's enough for me

Thanks for the heads up!

I was wondering where that horse was going to run next.

I'll watch it. Thanks.

[str]

Yeah, kind of a curious stretch turn. Seemed like rail opened up wide open and he went from the rail to 8 wide for the stretch run.

He was 8 wide because when you are trying to get a horse to pick up the bit and go and they are reluctant to do so, you try and do things to get them happy or interested.

More times than not, if they are reluctant to do so, you figure that maybe if I get clear of all the kick back spray, the horse will pick it up. If you don't try that, you leave a solid reason as to why she was not, on the table.
And while she did pick it up a little finally, by then he was way out there. If he had horse and she had been in the bit, he probably would have saved some ground around the turn and been there when it opened up.
So what looks like a jockey misfortune or even a mistake, it was the horse not responding and lagging back out of the bit that forced him to do things he would not ordinarily do.
Totally the horses fault there IMO.

[str]

just so you know str "shadow dragon"(army mule) is going in the wood memorial today..the onei asked you why mott was running in Florida when his last race was bad against NY statebreds..ran a good 2nd that day..just watch races with (AM) running..also have a futures position on "hit show" so that's enough for me

I did not realize he ran last month. Was wrapping up a big project and just got busy I guess. All finished and sold now. Cool old house in Georgetown, D.C. My old stomping grounds before the track days.

He ran poorly last out which has me seeing one of my favorite angles which is the "every other race" horse. A horse that just cannot string two real solid efforts together without running a poor or flat one in between. In this case maybe it's just the level of competition. But I have always loved that angle because it can create real solid prices if the horse displays it over time. I used to love using these when I'm playing exactas or triples.
We will see in here. Should be about 15 or 20-1 I assume?

Thanks JBEX !

[JBEX]

I did not realize he ran last month. Was wrapping up a big project and just got busy I guess. All finished and sold now. Cool old house in Georgetown, D.C. My old stomping grounds before the track days.

He ran poorly last out which has me seeing one of my favorite angles which is the "every other race" horse. A horse that just cannot string two real solid efforts together without running a poor or flat one in between. In this case maybe it's just the level of competition. But I have always loved that angle because it can create real solid prices if the horse displays it over time. I used to love using these when I'm playing exactas or triples.
We will see in here. Should be about 15 or 20-1 I assume?

Thanks JBEX !

no problem str and glad things went well with the house. remember you mentioned it a while back

see you what you mean about the good/bad pattern..he did have more time to put it together between starts 2 and 3 whereas he'll be coming back in the usual about of time today..I guess mott wouldn't take a shot if he felt he wasn't ready and the race 2 back was impressive..doubt 1 1/8 will be a problem..doesn't appear to be a lot of pace but I have a hunch someone will be aggressive and go with the 7..definitely need that for SD to have a shot


I think you'll get around ml to 20-1 on him..gl if you play

will be difficult for hit show from post 12 (think there was a scratch) ..think he's going to be a very good horse down the road




.

[JBEX]

bluegrass


#7 sun thunder (10-1)


R9 @ 5:15


here's a horse who also backed up after a good effort and fired big in his next start..pretty even in the last 2 calls prior to both his good runs also .. trailed behind that tortoise-like pace of kingsbarns in the louisiana derby..returning in 2 weeks also

[JBEX]

bluegrass

R9 @ 5:15


#7 sun thunder (10-1)


here's a horse who also backed up after a good effort and fired big in his next start..pretty even in the last 2 calls prior to both his good runs also .. trailed behind that tortoise-like pace of kingsbarns in the louisiana derby..returning in 2 weeks also

#7 had 9 up briefly

[str]

bluegrass


#7 sun thunder (10-1)


R9 @ 5:15


here's a horse who also backed up after a good effort and fired big in his next start..pretty even in the last 2 calls prior to both his good runs also .. trailed behind that tortoise-like pace of kingsbarns in the louisiana derby..returning in 2 weeks also

#7 had 9 up briefly

Yep. Same deal here as the other one. The only thing is, because they are just starting out and being challenged early in their career, the every other race thing could very well be ability and not exactly what jumps off the page with older horses or ones that have run enough to have a level of some sort and the paper clearly shows that pattern.

But, if I'm playing either of these races, I am looking hard at both of these along with maybe two others to box ... or something like that.

Olders that have shown this over time are like the gift that keeps on giving. I love them. They run well when they are a price and not so well when they are bet down.

Thank again JBEX.

[Madison]

He was 8 wide because when you are trying to get a horse to pick up the bit and go and they are reluctant to do so, you try and do things to get them happy or interested.

More times than not, if they are reluctant to do so, you figure that maybe if I get clear of all the kick back spray, the horse will pick it up. If you don't try that, you leave a solid reason as to why she was not, on the table.
And while she did pick it up a little finally, by then he was way out there. If he had horse and she had been in the bit, he probably would have saved some ground around the turn and been there when it opened up.
So what looks like a jockey misfortune or even a mistake, it was the horse not responding and lagging back out of the bit that forced him to do things he would not ordinarily do.
Totally the horses fault there IMO.

Thank you. Much appreciated!!

[JBEX]

Yep. Same deal here as the other one. The only thing is, because they are just starting out and being challenged early in their career, the every other race thing could very well be ability and not exactly what jumps off the page with older horses or ones that have run enough to have a level of some sort and the paper clearly shows that pattern.

But, if I'm playing either of these races, I am looking hard at both of these along with maybe two others to box ... or something like that.

Olders that have shown this over time are like the gift that keeps on giving. I love them. They run well when they are a price and not so well when they are bet down.

Thank again JBEX.

no problem str


so it's more excusable in your opinion for lightly raced 3yo's form to fluctuate until it settles at the right level and distance... might be some value in approaching it that way... not automatic plays, , but when other things come together on the particular horse you like?

[Madison]

Gentlemen, I want to sincerely thank you for all your insight. It seems time for me to move on. I've had a bunch of fun but the time spent versus my ROI is just not worth the effort. I enjoy the sport but I've always been about winning and I'm just not smart enough. I'll hover but will be stepping back. BOL to all and thanks again!

[Jellymancan]

Gentlemen, I want to sincerely thank you for all your insight. It seems time for me to move on. I've had a bunch of fun but the time spent versus my ROI is just not worth the effort. I enjoy the sport but I've always been about winning and I'm just not smart enough. I'll hover but will be stepping back. BOL to all and thanks again!

Sad to hear this Madison. Maybe, take a break for a long time. Sometimes, it helps clear the mind. Also, you could just bet a lot lower. But, if you want out, I get it.

[JBEX]

Gentlemen, I want to sincerely thank you for all your insight. It seems time for me to move on. I've had a bunch of fun but the time spent versus my ROI is just not worth the effort. I enjoy the sport but I've always been about winning and I'm just not smart enough. I'll hover but will be stepping back. BOL to all and thanks again!

no problem madison

most,including myself, cannot win at this especially when you factor the take..I'd say < 2% of players might ..you really have to be extremely talented,bankrolled and put the time in to have a shot..just have a little fun with it while staying within your means is the best way to look at it imo

[str]

no problem str


so it's more excusable in your opinion for lightly raced 3yo's form to fluctuate until it settles at the right level and distance... might be some value in approaching it that way... not automatic plays, , but when other things come together on the particular horse you like?

Q. so it's more excusable in your opinion for lightly raced 3yo's form to fluctuate until it settles at the right level and distance.


A. Maybe not so much with a cheaper horse who is running at the same level but for these high end horses who are asked to move around and constantly change distances, tracks, surfaces, levels of competition, riders maybe, etc. it can be a lot for plenty of them.


They are trying to get to the Derby and that is such a tough road to go down. Especially when it is rushed. Takes a special horse to be able to stand up to that IMO.


Q. not automatic plays, , but when other things come together on the particular horse you like?


A. Sure. After the fact, we will see plenty of horses that run improved races and look back and say, now I see it. Something they disliked in their last race or really liked in this one where they ran better.

I don't think you can go looking for that. It's just something that when you read the pp's or watch a replay, it might show up. It very well could only be a hunch but when the horse improves off a not so hot effort , or, regresses off a great trip, it can become apparent so as to better gauge the horse next out.

As we know, it is always a guessing game to some extent. But if you can try and get a feel prior to the race one way or another, you will be wrong on some for sure, but you will also be right on some. And for those, from that point forward, you have a solid inside track on that particular horse, at least for the next race or two. After that, so many things can happen, you often have to recalculate.

I guess that what makes the game so tough and yet compelling at the same time. It is always in motion and moving around. It never becomes automatic.
Nobody is right all the time. But if you can be right just sometimes on a horse that pays a nice price, or even a horse that was bet way down that you played against, it is that, that will pay for many mistakes we all will make when handicapping.

Such a tough game that when you were wrong in seven out of the ten races, you feel good about it because you had three winners.



Hope that makes sense.

[str]

Gentlemen, I want to sincerely thank you for all your insight. It seems time for me to move on. I've had a bunch of fun but the time spent versus my ROI is just not worth the effort. I enjoy the sport but I've always been about winning and I'm just not smart enough. I'll hover but will be stepping back. BOL to all and thanks again!

Madison, I have the same sentiment as Jelly, JBEX and I'm sure others here. We hate to see you go and hope you come back after a freshener.

Please though, don't ever think you are not smart enough. Who is?

I started when I was about 14. Fifty four years later, I'm still learning.

You never stop in this business. There is always something new. And as we get older, enjoyment becomes a bigger thing. Maybe not for the young guys but for us, the ROI has to include enjoyment , and not just a monetary total.

At least that's how I see it.

Good luck and All the best to you Madison. Sure hope we see you again. It's been a pleasure sir.

[mrginandtonic]

Gentlemen, I want to sincerely thank you for all your insight. It seems time for me to move on. I've had a bunch of fun but the time spent versus my ROI is just not worth the effort. I enjoy the sport but I've always been about winning and I'm just not smart enough. I'll hover but will be stepping back. BOL to all and thanks again!

Hope you wont be out too long; it is always fun to have more people around here. I totally agree with STR, enjoyment and fun is far more fun to me now that making a few bucks. It's part of my entertainment and stress release from my day to day work. Also, find your niche; as for me, I like turf racing a lot more and I would spend more time handicapping. I don't have anything to contribute here like the other cappers here but I like to just play and enjoy the game. GL to whatever you do.