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hey str
first time starter by army mule saratoga R1
#2 burn jakey burn (10-1)
this one cost a bunch unlike the others..also relative to the dam info imo..ny bred race
albertrani slightly below avg firsters but his roi is huge so he must pop prices on occasion
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I was just going to post this for the Army Mule army...
Serious question, is there somewhere I can find the statistic of Todd Pletcher in R1 of the card that is a maiden race on NYRA tracks. I think his win rate is approaching 0 if not 0 but that's just my gut. Anyway, I always fade his horses in this spot. Should be a good betting race since we can theoretically throw out the favorite.
2-3 exacta box???Comment -
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I would have loved to see a flashier work out of the gate but... that could be the trainer. There are two other works that look slow but they are better than they look .
All in all, I think you have to trust the process of simply playing these Army Mules if you are getting value.
Thanks for the heads up.Comment -
Don’t know where you might find that stat but because it is not a stat the trainer has any control of, I can’t see how it would reflect a positive or negative influence on any particular race.
Hope that makes sense.
The 5 horse could show up at a price possibly . Trainer and sire both know how to win first out. The 7 will probably be bet down. Flashy works, nice sire % first out and trainer with an expensive baby .
Solid race for NY breds.
Good luck if you play.Last edited by str; 07-17-22, 11:45 AM.Comment -
Hey STR: AT NYRA tracks they announce who is wearing quarter inch bends. Any major significance to that? THX.Comment -
R1 fuk yeah! One beer, one winner.Comment -
hey str
have one of those 2yo msw races (sar R6) that probably has at least 3 future stakes winners in it
michele nevin has one of those incredible pedigree firsters
#2 full moon madness (10-1)
homebred into mischief (most expensive stallion in north america and excellent first out) and out of a multiple graded stakes winning indian charlie mare...classy speed influence and sire of the great sire uncle mo..first foal to race out of the mare who broke her maiden vs specials first time out in july (so also early 2yo) at saratoga
going to have his work cut out for him to win here but will probably be an overlay with all the usual suspects (elite trainers) having horses going in hereLast edited by JBEX; 07-23-22, 12:08 AM.Comment -
managed to get that post (and hopefully this one)in but everything has been pot luck for me past few daysComment -
No. Useless information to the player IMO.
That is a small cleat at the end of the hind shoe. It is usually worn if a horse is having trouble getting a hold of the surface or giving that horse a slipping feeling in the hind end like the ground is breaking away from them ( like running on the dry portion of the beach ), or horses that tend to get friction burn on the back of their hind ankles. That is why hind bandages are on. To help prevent that.
That friction burn or "running down" as it's called by horsemen can also start to occur if a horse is shifting it's weight off the front end to feel more comfortable. That is code for probably compensating for a pinching or soreness up front, like a knee or an ankle, tendon, etc. More often than not the horses conformation will be the culprit. i.e. the way they were made.
So IMO unless you kept notes on all of this ( and I did for years when I was claiming them) for most players, I think it is pretty much useless info.
It's not like the old days when stickers were worn for off tracks. Those were front shoe cleats. That was a huge edge for those that wore them. I don't know if that exists anymore. They did away with that option in a lot of places if I'm not mistaken.
Hope that helps EZ.Comment -
THX STR. Have a good day. And NYRA tracks are the only circuit that I have heard report this.Comment -
Absolutely ridiculous pedigree across the board in this race.
Happy for Michelle that she is getting horses like this to train.
While you all have read what I have to say about her and just about all graduates of our former mentor in regards to firsters, in this case, I would have to assume that Michelle spent a little more time prepping this one out of respect to the pedigree. And while this race is crazy loaded with solid firsters, like Chad's million dollar baby as well as several at 1/2 a million, I think Michelle's horse will run better as a firster out of her barn than most.
Now better in this race might be 5th or 6th. Who knows. But she undoubtedly made sure she did a little more than her normal comfort zone getting this one ready. Evidence of that is a flashy work two works back, very unlike her, and then followed by a very controlled last workout. (old habits die hard).
An awful lot to look for in this race with all the heavy hitters flashing big money babies but do watch for the January foal (#3). With all the marquee names in here, that one could find itself under bet. Just sayin.
Thanks for showing me this race. I will check out the chart afterwards.
Good luck if you play this one JBEX !Comment -
thanks str
great information regarding the bullet 4f being something she normally wouldn't ask for..agree with what you said about training a horse with this type of pedigree a little more aggressively than the normal stock she gets..breeders/owners have been in this game for at least 3 decades and wouldn't be surprised if they are there today..would be real nice for Michelle as for many of the others being in the winner's circle with a firster is something they've experienced many timesComment -
not a bad effort..got beat by another into mischief who ran well in his debut last start and a really expensive first time starter..unfortunately he's no secret nowComment -
I thought it was an really good effort.
If you see a replay, the horse was trapped darn near the entire race. OK for a mature seasoned horse but for a firster, that would be plenty of reason to fold up. If you watch the gallop out head on the winner and the 2nd horse are clean as a pin and this horse is caked in wet dirt all up his chest , face, everywhere.
He gained a ton of experience in that one. Anything close to a clean trip next out, providing a monster isn't lurking, should allow this one to win. Sure hope so. Great job the trainer did for this horse.
Thanks JBEX.Comment -
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Hey STR: The above is a race from JULY 20th at Assiniboia Downs up in Canada. What is your take on what you see specifically on the #1 KING WITT? THX in advance.Comment -
Wowzers. You want to give these guys the benefit of the doubt, but at some point the excuses don't matter. I've seen some shady looking rides but this is the oak tree of shady.
This is what the guy who makes the TImeform figs said about the ride on the #1 Kings Witt.Comment -
The Rider in question on the #1 is Sheldon Chickeness.
Here is his career stats. Been riding since 2001.
2,741 296 313 342 $1,581,013 Comment -
Here is what I see:
The horse at 1:23-1:26 is totally in pull up mode. That horse is easing himself because that was the que from the rider. Watch the horse, not the jock as they turn foe home. The horses legs widen out and the horse is almost jumping up and down. Look at his knee's. See how wide they are? That is the horse doing that. But.. because the rider sent that signal so the horse thought. Or, the horse was right about the signal. We don't know.
If you keep watching the horses legs, by 1:30 they are back to low and stretching forward. Once you see that, and again, just look at the horses legs, you can clearly see the difference. It's gallop vs. run, and that is night and day.
Further evidence of the horses mental at approx. 1:23, he switches to his right lead but remains in full pull up mode. That is on the jock not the horse.
I need to explain a couple of things :
I am assuming because I see the gap at the 3 1/2 pole,( white fence style swinging gate) where horses enter and exit the track when training daily up to races (I think there is another gap just past that so either way one of those is where horses enter and exit.), this trainer allows exercise boys to gallop a mile and pull up through the stretch. That is what a free lance exercise boy will do because time is money and it takes 5 more minutes to gallop past the wire, pull up, and jog home the wrong way. They get paid by the head ( unless it is a salary exercise boy). This is probably confusing but this should clean it up. Half ass trainers or ones that are struggling to pay bills will allow this.
Now let me say this. Galloping past the wire before you pull up was one of the first things I was taught when I started to oversee training. Pulling up through the lane can only teach a horse the wrong thing.
So IMO, and I am forced to assume things here, this horse thought the race was over.
That said, the rider is either a criminal , has no clue, or had a really terrible lapse in judgement. ( I'm being kind there).
No matter who the jock is, and you can watch just about any race, you don't sit that still as you turn for home and swing on the horses mouth looking back to the inside and allow the horse to drift out, especially just as you hit the top of the stretch. That's asking for exactly what you see.
Some questions that need answering:
1. Was the jock saying "whoa" to the horse? I don't know but that outrider sitting on the outside fence that you can see as they turn for home knows that answer. You would be amazed how voices carry away from the crowd noise. And jocks naturally shout when riding because they can't hear that well with the wind in their ears at the speed they are going.
2. Does this horse pull up there daily while training ? Plenty of people know that too.
3. Any irregular betting patterns? They will find out.
4. The stewards know this rider. I only see this one ridiculous race. It is hard to judge any rider off one race but on the surface, this looks bad for the game.
5. The horse was an easy winner if this jock does ANYTHING but what he did at the 3/16ths pole ( 1:23-1:26). Obvious evidence is how well the horse finished.
6. When I see the horse pulling up AND slowly going towards the outside, that is exactly what you do in the morning. So was that it, or was the rider looking for someone to come up the inside in a boat race?
7. That was either a failed attempt to set up a finish or that jockey completely screwed up in an amateurish fashion. Hate to say that, but the tape doesn't lie and he is supposed to be a horseman which would know all these things I have spoken to. That is not an opinion. It's a fact.
What a blunder ! Or a setup. I hope not. But without more evidence, I cannot make a full judgement. The investigation will conclude . I hope we get to see the results of it. All those questions I asked must be answered as well as more once I hear those answers.
I do get where bettors will assume the worst. It's about money, and betting, and there is always something shady going on somewhere in anything gambling related. Or, it looks like it. That IS what gambling produces. Skepticism. And I understand that. This could be exactly that. Or, what I spoke to. We will have to wait and see.
In the interim, I would expect a 100% effort from this rider in the near future. But I have to be honest. I can't see me ever betting 1.00 there. Did you see the times? 25, 49 and change, 1:09 ??? Lol.
A cool, in hand, 19 and change 3rd quarter. That's just an embarrassment EZ.
Keep me posted. I do want to hear what the Stewards come up with.
And do follow up if I missed anything.Comment -
OK STR thx for the detailed explanation. The rider was working last night at ASD. If I hear anything more will hit you back.Comment -
Wow. Biggest win payout in the history of @CanterburyPark or Downs. $162.00Comment -
The regulatory body that oversees Thoroughbred racing in the Canadian province of Manitoba has ruled that no rules of Thoroughbred racing were violated in an oddly run race at Assiniboia Downs on July 20.
“The Liquor, Gaming and Cannabis Authority of Manitoba (LGCA) initiated our standard investigative process at the completion of race 5 on July 20, 2022 held at Assiniboia Downs,” a statement from the organization read. “Steps included interviewing witnesses, video replay analysis and reviewing wagering data. After this investigation, the LGCA determined that no rules of thoroughbred racing were violated and therefore, no adjustments to the order of finish are required.”Comment -
Darren Dunn, CEO of the Manitoba Jockey Club, issued the following statement after the LGCA said no rules were violated: “I want to start by indicating from the outset that we understand and fully respect the right and responsibility that our regulator has to make the determination that they did related to this race. At the same time, I want to identify and recognize our right as the operator to respond to their findings and, to be clear, we strongly disagree with the conclusion they arrived at from this review.
“Our interpretation of the race is that the horse, King Witt, to our understanding, may have previously exhibited tendencies in how he navigates the turn for home and the early stretch drive of the racetrack that caused the jockey to believe that with a potential repeat of those tendencies, the safety of the other horses and jockeys in the race were in jeopardy and that this was reflected in his actions, exhibiting his concern.
“And, while we will always support and encourage efforts of jockey's to be safe in the saddle for themselves, their fellow riders and the horses in the race, a distinction, in our opinion, should be made when these actions occur and then affect the possible and likely ultimate outcome of the race through an overreaction by a jockey. We believe, in our opinion, that jockey Sheldon Chickeness did over-compensate in his handling of his mount, likely related to a safety concern, but given the clear lead the horse had at the time, he did affect, in our opinion, the final outcome of the race and the order of finish.
“We believe that, while consideration and understanding could be given to his safety intent, overriding this was the need to protect the wagering public in ensuring the integrity of the race remained intact and that the over-compensation by jockey Sheldon Chickeness should have been met with a determination of significant discipline against him.”Comment -
The 2 above Posts STR are from the Paulick Report. Looks like no action will be taken as said in the first post but in the 2nd post A statement is made disagreeing with that decision.Comment -
I do not know who sits on this board so it is difficult to analyze what they said. Sadly, most boards are made up of appointed people from the governor or some political person. That's in the U.S.
I have absolutely no idea how it works in Canada but from the second comment I will get to in a minute, it sounds like they have little clue what they are looking at.
If that stands as is and that is the end of it with no explanation to the public whatsoever, that would prompt me to never bet another cent on any race that that board oversees. Not that I did prior to this.
The public , as well as any honest horseman, deserves a full understanding of what transpired. This kind of lip service is exactly why people get frustrated with the game. As well they should.
Great job Liquor, Gaming and Cannabis Authority.Comment -
So this horse pulls a number of some sort when he turns for home most races? Well if that is the case, what the hell is the rider doing allowing the horse the opportunity to think for himself at that point. Horses do NOT want to think for themselves. That is the job of the rider. That rider allowed what happened to happen. In fact, he even had a hand in encouraging the horse to screw up by not guiding the horse and making the horse mentally comfortable by staying busy on the horses mouth and mind.
If that is the best that can be done with that horse, which it is clearly not, then the horse needs to be ineligible to race until such a time that it has shown that whatever it does at the top of the stretch it no longer does. At that point, it should become a race by race decision.
Almost assuredly, this started by repeatedly pulling the horse up in the wrong spot to begin with as I mentioned previously. That is a disgrace. But a horse can only be as smart a runner as the dumbest person that is working with it.
This CEO gets it.Comment -
OK STR thx for your take on the respective comments.Comment -
STR; I have heard Maggie Wolfendale say that she regards Blinks on a FTS as a negative. How do you feel about that situation? Thx in advance.Comment
