Why you should play the Exchanges ..

[jw]

Mountaineer .. current tote betting ... just before the off

#2 - 2-1
#4 - 2-1
#5 - 3-1
#6 - 2-1

Exchange

#2 - 2.3-1
#4 - 3.2-1
#5 - 9-1
#6 - 2.1-1

Tote returns

#2 - 2-1
#4 - 2.5-1
#5 - 4.5-1
#6 - 3/2


The #5 won - Bernie Blue - returned on the tote @ 9/2 after late money for the #6 ... price available on eHorseX - 9-1 ... double the odds ... how can you afford not to play the exchanges?

[robmpink]

Mountaineer .. current tote betting ... just before the off

#2 - 2-1
#4 - 2-1
#5 - 3-1
#6 - 2-1

Exchange

#2 - 2.3-1
#4 - 3.2-1
#5 - 9-1
#6 - 2.1-1

Tote returns

#2 - 2-1
#4 - 2.5-1
#5 - 4.5-1
#6 - 3/2


The #5 won - Bernie Blue - returned on the tote @ 9/2 after late money for the #6 ... price available on eHorseX - 9-1 ... double the odds ... how can you afford not to play the exchanges?

And this happens how often? If you have time to sit in front of a computer 11 hours a day. Let me ask you this. Was it you loved the horse or you made a quick move because the horses odds dipped on tote and the horse just so happened to win? Yes, you could find value here and there, but you make it seem like it is the best thing since sliced bread.

How many times have you done the same thing where the horses odds dropped on tote, but were up on the exchanges, and the horse lost? Many I'm sure.

[jw]

And this happens how often? If you have time to sit in front of a computer 11 hours a day. Let me ask you this. Was it you loved the horse or you made a quick move because the horses odds dipped on tote and the horse just so happened to win? Yes, you could find value here and there, but you make it seem like it is the best thing since sliced bread.

How many times have you done the same thing where the horses odds dropped on tote, but were up on the exchanges, and the horse lost? Many I'm sure.

I beat the tote around 80-85% of the time ... I had capped the race and had the #4 horse as my selection @ odds of 3.5 or better, however I had the #5 as a 4-1 shot to win ... when it drifted out to 9-1 - I had to make a value play ...

Having the winner in a race or not isn't the point i'm trying to make however ... my point is ....... every single horse in the race was paying better odds than you could get - or did get on the tote .. now THIS happens 90-95% of the time.

Playing into an over round of 30+ percent is crazy. If you are NOT playing on an exchange - you are throwing money away ...

Edit: Just wanted to add here - I don't play exclusively on the exchanges - Sometimes a horse will have been backed off the board on the exchanges - or maybe the liquidity isn't there - or the one horse you like may be shorter than on the tote .... on those occasions I use other bookies ... but where an exchange is available for a race ... more often than not - that's where my money goes... because that's where i can get the best price.

p.s. Its normally 15 hours a day.

[robmpink]

I beat the tote around 80-85% of the time ... I had capped the race and had the #4 horse as my selection @ odds of 3.5 or better, however I had the #5 as a 4-1 shot to win ... when it drifted out to 9-1 - I had to make a value play ...

Having the winner in a race or not isn't the point i'm trying to make however ... my point is ....... every single horse in the race was paying better odds than you could get - or did get on the tote .. now THIS happens 90-95% of the time.

Playing into an over round of 30+ percent is crazy. If you are NOT playing on an exchange - you are throwing money away ...

Edit: Just wanted to add here - I don't play exclusively on the exchanges - Sometimes a horse will have been backed off the board on the exchanges - or maybe the liquidity isn't there - or the one horse you like may be shorter than on the tote .... on those occasions I use other bookies ... but where an exchange is available for a race ... more often than not - that's where my money goes... because that's where i can get the best price.

p.s. Its normally 15 hours a day.

Thanks for the explanation. I can relate to you as my book once had very nice race of the week bets where they were slow to move off the current tote prices. Now they are super quick. I once hit a 10-1 ml that went off the 6-5 fav at gulfstream for $500.

[gtkid911]

Do you use EhorseX? If so, how much liquidity is in there as i am interested in signing up.

[thezbar]

Exchanges are the future. But we need them now.

[jw]

Do you use EhorseX? If so, how much liquidity is in there as i am interested in signing up.

Liquidity is reasonable for main daytime meetings - the smaller meetings and the evening meetings can sometimes tail off with poor numbers ... should be no problem getting up to 3-500 at a time on a race if you want to though .... there is more liquidity on the fav's than on the outsiders ... and the one thing i HATE about ehorsex is the fact that the market only goes live around 10 mins before each race .... whereas betfair will have realistic odds several hours before racing.

Having said that - your best bet might be to just leave the ehorsex screen open for a day or two ... so that you can track the amount of money and odds that would be available on the horses that you play .... deposit fee's were reasonable last time I did it with a debit card ... withdrawal fee's are around $50 for **/check ... payout took me just a couple of days (**) last time I got one.

I'm sure the exchanges won't be for everyone - but each and every time I get on a horse that goes off shorter ... even if it gets beat - I feel like i've screwed a bookmaker ....

[sq764]

Mountaineer .. current tote betting ... just before the off #2 - 2-1 #4 - 2-1 #5 - 3-1 #6 - 2-1 Exchange #2 - 2.3-1 #4 - 3.2-1 #5 - 9-1 #6 - 2.1-1 Tote returns #2 - 2-1 #4 - 2.5-1 #5 - 4.5-1 #6 - 3/2 The #5 won - Bernie Blue - returned on the tote @ 9/2 after late money for the #6 ... price available on eHorseX - 9-1 ... double the odds ... how can you afford not to play the exchanges?

you can cherry pick anything you want.. I could post another threat about not playing exchanges because of this situation going the other way.. big deal

[sq764]

its impossible for 'every other horse to be paying better than the odds'.. you realize this is statistically impossible right?

[jw]

its impossible for 'every other horse to be paying better than the odds'.. you realize this is statistically impossible right?

Nope - its not ... bookmakers work with an "overround" which means a horse that is placed at even money - statistically has a 50% chance of winning the race ... if there is a three horse race ... the odds on the tote will more often than not look something like

#1 - evens - 50% chance
#2 - evens - 50% chance
#3 - 2-1 - 33% chance

this gives a total overround on the race of 133% .. which is about the average overround on the tote.

The exchanges however would offer odds that are MUCH closer to 100% overround ...

So you might have

#1 - 5/4 - 44.44%
#2 - 5/4 - 44.44%
#3 - 5-1 - 16.67%

Total overround = 105.6

not only is it possible - its actually mathematically more likely that you get better odds on an exchange.



If you are happy throwing money down the drain - good for you ... you are obviously a much better capper than I am ... some of us need all the help we can get .. and 30%+ better odds on the field in every single race helps me stay in the game longer and win more than I would by using the tote on its own.

[jw]

you can cherry pick anything you want.. I could post another threat about not playing exchanges because of this situation going the other way.. big deal

You could - but if you were talking about a well funded exchange market (any of the ones on betfair) you would be talking out of your back-end. If you could more find more than 5% of horses being better odds on the tote than they are on the exchange market - i'd gladly give you a medal. It does happen - but it is the exception - NOT the norm.

[sq764]

Nope - its not ... bookmakers work with an "overround" which means a horse that is placed at even money - statistically has a 50% chance of winning the race ... if there is a three horse race ... the odds on the tote will more often than not look something like #1 - evens - 50% chance #2 - evens - 50% chance #3 - 2-1 - 33% chance this gives a total overround on the race of 133% .. which is about the average overround on the tote. The exchanges however would offer odds that are MUCH closer to 100% overround ... So you might have #1 - 5/4 - 44.44% #2 - 5/4 - 44.44% #3 - 5-1 - 16.67% Total overround = 105.6 not only is it possible - its actually mathematically more likely that you get better odds on an exchange. If you are happy throwing money down the drain - good for you ... you are obviously a much better capper than I am ... some of us need all the help we can get .. and 30%+ better odds on the field in every single race helps me stay in the game longer and win more than I would by using the tote on its own.

couple things... if ehorse gives you essentially 5% takeout, then you are dealing with 105 odds points rather than a typical 120-125 racetrack.. you can get 15-20% rebates at a lot of places that put your money into the track pools.

So all you're really doing is taking money out of the racetracks and filtering offshore, thus helping to ruin the horse racing industry.

I'm not here to get on a soapbox and tell you that taking money out of pulls is not right to do, its totally your right.. Just saying the same result can be obtained with rebates AND supporting horse racing.

[jw]

So all you're really doing is taking money out of the racetracks and filtering offshore, thus helping to ruin the horse racing industry.

Horse racing is responsible for ruining horse racing ... i'm here to make money ... simple as that - i'll take the place where I can get the best odds about the horse that I like in the race ... if the US tote system is the place .. i'll go there - if it isn't - i'll go elsewhere.



p.s. would be interested in where I can get 20% rebates .... seriously ... I've never found one that'll offer me much above 5% .... care to share .... ? Maybe I could put some money back into the tracks after-all ...

if ehorse gives you essentially 5% takeout,

From this I take it you have never played at an exchange ... ? Or certainly not this one .... If not - Why are you so dead set against something that you have no experience with ? Maybe its the best thing that will ever happen to you ... try it - you might like it

[sq764]

p.s. would be interested in where I can get 20% rebates .... seriously ... I've never found one that'll offer me much above 5% .... care to share .... ? Maybe I could put some money back into the tracks after-all ...



From this I take it you have never played at an exchange ... ? Or certainly not this one .... If not - Why are you so dead set against something that you have no experience with ? Maybe its the best thing that will ever happen to you ... try it - you might like it

yu've seriously never seen higher than a 5% rebate? really?

never heard of premierturfclub? Horseplayersbet? just 2 of many that you will get 7-10% from day one..

im not telling you what you should do, if you're happy and doing well then keep on keepin on... there is more than one way to skin a cat

[andywend]

its impossible for 'every other horse to be paying better than the odds'.. you realize this is statistically impossible right?

sq764, its extremely rare when a horse has lower odds on a betting exchange as compared to the final odds at the track. Clearly, you don't use betting exchanges so it probably makes sense to refrain from talking about them until you have a better understanding of how they work.

couple things... if ehorse gives you essentially 5% takeout, then you are dealing with 105 odds points rather than a typical 120-125 racetrack.. you can get 15-20% rebates at a lot of places that put your money into the track pools.

NAME ONE!!! This claim is 100% false.

I am familar with that North Dakota outlet and they do offer the highest rebates in the country for bettors that bet obscene amounts of money. However, the rebate isn't anywhere near 15-20% as that is almost equal to the entire track take (actually exceeds the track take in certain states).

JW, anything this SQ764 guy says should be taken with a grain of salt.

As far as the horseracing industry in general, they really don't care about the bettors and the owners have always gotten a raw deal (I owned horses in Southern California for almost 20 years).

Since the owners and the bettors are the ones financially supporting the industry with the trainers, jockeys, race track operators and local/state governments sharing those proceeds, the industry has to make serious changes as the game is drying up very quickly.

[jw]

never heard of premierturfclub? Horseplayersbet? just 2 of many that you will get 7-10% from day one..

I can only imagine the amount of play you have to put through a wagering facility in order to get a 20% rebate ..... 7-10% is much closer to "Not much more than 5%" than it is to 20% ....

I placed a total of 4 bets yesterday -
Determination - bet placed @ 3.0 went off @ 1.90
Speechifying - bet placed @ 4.05 - went off @ 2.70
Pure Polished - bet placed @ 4.85 - went off @ 2.50
Steph's Bullet - bet placed @ 3.19 - went off @ 1.10

This is a typical days racing for me .... all beat final track odds by around 50% + and I did not get the best odds available on any one of these four ....

When the track can offer me this kind of return - i'll be all over it.

[sq764]

I am familar with that North Dakota outlet and they do offer the highest rebates in the country for bettors that bet obscene amounts of money. However, the rebate isn't anywhere near 15-20% as that is almost equal to the entire track take (actually exceeds the track take in certain states).
.

take your own advise on this one, you don't know what you're talking about... I get 15% on all exotics and 12% on WPS wagers.. its for 7-9 tracks daily.

If you think this is false, that's certaintly your prerogative, I have no reason to lie about it.

[sq764]

sq764, its extremely rare when a horse has lower odds on a betting exchange as compared to the final odds at the track. Clearly, you don't use betting exchanges so it probably makes sense to refrain from talking about them until you have a better understanding of how they work.NAME ONE!!! This claim is 100% false.

I am familar with that North Dakota outlet and they do offer the highest rebates in the country for bettors that bet obscene amounts of money. However, the rebate isn't anywhere near 15-20% as that is almost equal to the entire track take (actually exceeds the track take in certain states).

I'm considered a smaller time bettor through PTC and they are one of the better rebate shops, but not close tot he highest rates.. here's just 2 examples of track rebates for a lower handle bettor: (WPS/Ex/Double/Tri/Spc/Pk3)

Hazel Park (HAZ)6.00%
12.00%
12.00%

12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%

12.00%

Philly Park - 11% on trifectas and supers

[sq764]

As far as the horseracing industry in general, they really don't care about the bettors and the owners have always gotten a raw deal (I owned horses in Southern California for almost 20 years).

Since the owners and the bettors are the ones financially supporting the industry with the trainers, jockeys, race track operators and local/state governments sharing those proceeds, the industry has to make serious changes as the game is drying up very quickly.

you're using California as the example - they are the worst run tracks in the country. Not saying NYRA is any better, they're a mess too, but California racing is run about as intelligent as their state is.

[sq764]

I can only imagine the amount of play you have to put through a wagering facility in order to get a 20% rebate ..... 7-10% is much closer to "Not much more than 5%" than it is to 20% ....

I placed a total of 4 bets yesterday -
Determination - bet placed @ 3.0 went off @ 1.90
Speechifying - bet placed @ 4.05 - went off @ 2.70
Pure Polished - bet placed @ 4.85 - went off @ 2.50
Steph's Bullet - bet placed @ 3.19 - went off @ 1.10

This is a typical days racing for me .... all beat final track odds by around 50% + and I did not get the best odds available on any one of these four ....

When the track can offer me this kind of return - i'll be all over it.

that's great, its all about profit.. keep doing what ur doing..

[robmpink]

Good dialogue going on in this thread. JW, when you see big overlays on ml bombs do you bet them just because you see the big gap in exhanges vs tote or you have to actually like the horse?

[jw]

Good dialogue going on in this thread. JW, when you see big overlays on ml bombs do you bet them just because you see the big gap in exhanges vs tote or you have to actually like the horse?

In answer to your question ... the answer would be - no - I don't blindly back shorter priced favorites that I can get at much bigger prices .... but if you did - it would probably make your money last much longer than blindly backing them at tote odds ....

I tend to handicap a race and create my own very-loose "value line" ... If I see a horse that I think should be 3/2 trading at 2-1 ... i'll usually bite ... I have three or four "methods" that I use on any given day ....

1. Form reading .... I generally pick one or two horses each day that i REALLY like (yesterdays was Determination) .. I mostly stick with 5 or 6 furlong non-maiden races with no first time starters ..... and I always have no bet if a track is sloppy .... (watching replays of shorter races takes less time and i'll never back a horse unless I've seen its last couple of races and the main dangers last couple of races) if the horse wins - i'll then play 20% of the profits on my other "likes" for the day if it loses .. i'll wait for tomorrow.

2. My speed/trainer angle horses .... these are horses that are picked out each day using a mechanical selection process that shows profits long-term .. once I have the 4-10 horses each day that are normally shortlisted by these systems .. I then study each race and watch the last three races of each contender in each race to see if I will be getting involved in a race.

3. My "Stable notice" horses .... at the end of each day I watch almost all races and use one of the "notify" programs to let me know when a horse will run next ... when one is flagged - again - i look at the race to see if it is strong enough to be a play or not ...

4. My Longshots ... this time - a mixture of all of the above - watching race replays and form reading might throw up a "live" outsider that I think has a decent shot at going close .. these ones I normally play on the betfair "place only" markets ...

With all of the above methods however .... I always rate an entire race and know beforehand what the odds of a horse will need to be before i'll get involved .... If one of my 3/2 shots opens at 4/5 and stays there - I won't bet the horse just because I think it will still win the race .. i'll only bet it if I think it will win - and if the price I can get is better than the chance I give the horse to win(or place)

[jw]

I'm considered a smaller time bettor through PTC and they are one of the better rebate shops, but not close tot he highest rates.. here's just 2 examples of track rebates for a lower handle bettor: (WPS/Ex/Double/Tri/Spc/Pk3)

Hazel Park (HAZ)6.00%
12.00%
12.00%

12.00%
12.00%
12.00%
12.00%

12.00%

Philly Park - 11% on trifectas and supers

ahhh ...... I only ever play win and place ... never exacta/trifecta/pick 3 or 4 - I guess this is why I never get close to the 10+% rebates
...again - i envy the guys who can play the pick 3/4's and wait out the big hit - i like to play shorter prices for the smaller more frequent hits .. than the longer prices for the bigger .. but less frequent payouts .. just my personality trait .... I don't have the patience to plug away waiting for the hit .. i have to see results constantly (no matter how small) else i'd soon give up and move on to something else .... knowing your weakness is half the battle

[ferndog]

Since you guys are talking about exchanges...i thought i would ask....At ehorse if i bet against a horse to win & it says on the against side +450 & underneath that it says $40 dollars....Does this mean if i bet $10 i can win $45 if this horse loses the race? This payout seems high when betting against a horse to win if i'm reading this right....

[jw]

Just a quick update here for those that might be interested ... I've just taken out all my funds .. am moving it all over to betfair as 95% of the horses I play are now in the UK ....

Requested payout Monday 9am - I have a check here in my hand @ 9.30am Thursday via FedEx.. so payout is nice and efficient ... the fee of $50 is quite steep however.



Good luck all.

[gtkid911]

From what i hear, Betfair is killing horse racing in the UK. And are you in America or the UK? I would love a Betfair account but im in the US

[jw]

From what i hear, Betfair is killing horse racing in the UK. And are you in America or the UK? I would love a Betfair account but im in the US

yup - i'm in the Us .. but all my family is in the Uk - so is easy for me to have an address and bank account over there ...
Betfair isn't the problem ... like in the US - racing is its own worst enemy ...

[MdnSpecialist]

I deposited 300 bucks at ehorsex about a month ago...I was up and down all month. I would bet 2 or 3 horses per race. Several races a day. Not much handicapping to be honest. I wanted to see if you just bet the horses going off at a much higher prices compared to U.S. odds. Could one make money. I remember one race where the odds were 7/2 here in the U.S. but at ehorsex they were 11-1. That's a huge overlay. I bet 50 bucks to win. Horse didn't run a lick. The other day at Arlington a 50-1 shot won. I got 80-1 at ehorsex. Unfortunately that horse was only offered at 80-1 for 2 bucks. I did bet the horse to win at BetAmerica also. I went broke at ehorsex the other day. Those higher odds can get addicting. LOL!!! There's so many races. I didn't want an overlay to get by. I probably made over 4 thousand dollars in bets over the month a ehorsex before going broke. If I make another deposit at ehorsex. I'll just stick to my maiden races. I'll actually handicap them and won't get hypnotized by the high odds over there..

[jw]

If I make another deposit at ehorsex. I'll just stick to my maiden races. I'll actually handicap them and won't get hypnotized by the high odds over there..

Yes they are

For me - spotting the horses that I knew would be @ 3/5 or 1/5 on track and getting them @ 2.2 or 2.50 was a high strike rate strategy that paid off with a slow but steady profit ...

Towards the end I was capping a race and picking out maybe three in each race that I liked and looking for overlays in those situations ... rather than just blindly backing the overlays for all horses, that seemed to be working well too ...

They really do need to get more liquidity on some of the meetings ,,, and also try and open up to earlier wagering ... that's the one reason I love betfair .. I can get odds on tomorrows races right now and still be backing at just over 100% over-round.

[mproud1]

I deposited 300 bucks at ehorsex about a month ago...I was up and down all month. I would bet 2 or 3 horses per race. Several races a day. Not much handicapping to be honest. I wanted to see if you just bet the horses going off at a much higher prices compared to U.S. odds. Could one make money. I remember one race where the odds were 7/2 here in the U.S. but at ehorsex they were 11-1. That's a huge overlay. I bet 50 bucks to win. Horse didn't run a lick. The other day at Arlington a 50-1 shot won. I got 80-1 at ehorsex. Unfortunately that horse was only offered at 80-1 for 2 bucks. I did bet the horse to win at BetAmerica also. I went broke at ehorsex the other day. Those higher odds can get addicting. LOL!!! There's so many races. I didn't want an overlay to get by. I probably made over 4 thousand dollars in bets over the month a ehorsex before going broke. If I make another deposit at ehorsex. I'll just stick to my maiden races. I'll actually handicap them and won't get hypnotized by the high odds over there..

''I remember one race where the odds were 7/2 here in the U.S. but at ehorsex they were 11-1. That's a huge overlay. I bet 50 bucks to win. Horse didn't run a lick''

This is one thing not to get suckered on. players only offer those huge odds on a favorite because they HATE the horse. Of course the bombs on track can be BOMBS AWAY on Ehorsex. I hit a 25/1 for 50/1($700) at Turfway & a 40/1 5 horse field at arlington for 70/1!!

[carparts1000]

exchanges are the best way to bet. actually wish all sites were betting exchanges. don't ever have to worry about being limited or shown the door.

[Art Vandeleigh]

Exchanges help me identify live horses (for use in exotics)

[mproud1]

Exchanges help me identify live horses (for use in exotics)

yep, you can tell which long shots people think have NO chance.