Bet the horse or the jockey?

[docbarnes]

Just curious on what the popular opinion is. Trying to get a better understanding of the sport.

Preakness:
Dublin has switched jockeys for this race. Thompson rode him in the Derby and now Gomez takes the mount. Will this make a difference?

Coa and Prado are in the field and both are good jockeys

Am I crazy for liking:
Super Saver
Dublin
and either Yawanna twist or Schoolyard Dreams in a trifecta box or exacta boxes.

[Reload]

Jockey switches do matter. It's one of the few "human" elements into racing we can take advantage of.

[the player]

Sometimes a big jock switch does matter a on horse.

[Paul Kersey]

Overall..one of the most if not THE most overrated aspect in betting horse racing. And something I'm often guilty of. People fall in love with jockeys and destroy the odds. Of course, many jockeys are more talented than others and therefore obtain the better mounts from the best trainers. So much more value concentrating on handicapping horses and not focusing on blaming jockeys.

The Preakness will be interesting. He will never admit it..but inside Garrett Gomez is burning inside with extra incentive to win...but that DOESN'T mean the horse he's riding (Dublin) will cooperate.

[MadTiger]

I like strong jockey/trainer combos.

No, wait, I LOVE strong jockey/trainer combos.

[jw]

I like strong jockey/trainer combos.

No, wait, I LOVE strong jockey/trainer combos.

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/article.cgi?id=286

[mtneer1212]

Bet the trainer. Then the horse. Then the mental and physical midget riding him.

[jw]

Bet the trainer. Then the horse. Then the mental and physical midget riding him.

I suspect the positive impact of the good jockeys is not quite as significant as the negative impact of the bad jockeys.

[EmpireMaker]

Bet the horse !!!

[thezbar]

I suspect the positive impact of the good jockeys is not quite as significant as the negative impact of the bad jockeys.

I agree with this 99%. A jockey will make a big difference in a photo finish. If I'm betting big $ on a horse I require to things. A top jockey who is riding well at that point in time. Horses win races but jockey's can lose them.
The rider changes in the Preakness are minor imo. Race shape, post position, pace and track condition are much more important.

[MadTiger]

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/edito...cle.cgi?id=286

Good lookin' out.

[docbarnes]

Thanks for all the input!

[gman2114]

You never what will be the deciding factor till after the race is over. That is the only problem.

[wtt0315]

i never bet jockey

[Brewers in 7]

jockey switches not as important as driver switches.. except Gomez off lookin at lucky is key

[MdnSpecialist]

Bet the trainer. Then the horse. Then the mental and physical midget riding him.

Bet the horse. Then the trainer. Then the jockey. The horse runs the race. Not the trainer or jockey..

[str]

If you don't have the horse , you don't have anything.

[Gunpher]

I am a big fan of betting the jockey. But taking Garcia over Gomez was a big risk that paid off.

[madmaxx]

Garcia > Gomez..Garcia is Baffert's main guy now and it has paid off, look at their %

[dollarbill]

I like strong jockey/trainer combos.

No, wait, I LOVE strong jockey/trainer combos.

check-out Monday Harness

[the player]

yeah...garcia is the man for Baffert's barn.

[sq764]

bet the value...its great to have top trainer and jockey, but you're likely going to get shit odds.. Looks at Russell Baze and Jerry Hollendorfer, every single horse is an underlay.. you're going to lose in the longrun with that mentality

[mproud1]

Dutrow(trainer) has the biggest favs in NY & a lot of times they SUCK BALLS. Always look to beat these horses at Aqueduct & Belmont.

[wtt0315]

Actually I did bet Dominque at prekness

[gangeriver]

there are lots of factor. (nearly 400-500) jockey is a factor. if you bet a horse you should consider lots of factors.

horses pervious races
right distance
right course (dirt,allweather or turf)
right course condition (good or heavy turf or wet dirt etc..)
right hippodromme (where is the hippodromme? which city? is there dry air or humid air? which is right for your horse? is racecourse clockwise or not?
good trainer
has jockey rode it
his pedigree
right accessories ( right martingal,tack,eye pacificer....etc.)
the horse's running style and others styles (go ahead or waiting patiently...you should compare)
horse condition (good or bad looking on the paddock.is it's body fit?) (sweaty,nervous...or cool)

those are important factors and you can learn these. I think you can't learn other factors.Only stable staff can know

[MdnSpecialist]

there are lots of factor. (nearly 400-500) jockey is a factor. if you bet a horse you should consider lots of factors.

horses pervious races
right distance
right course (dirt,allweather or turf)
right course condition (good or heavy turf or wet dirt etc..)
right hippodromme (where is the hippodromme? which city? is there dry air or humid air? which is right for your horse? is racecourse clockwise or not?
good trainer
has jockey rode it
his pedigree
right accessories ( right martingal,tack,eye pacificer....etc.)
the horse's running style and others styles (go ahead or waiting patiently...you should compare)
horse condition (good or bad looking on the paddock.is it's body fit?) (sweaty,nervous...or cool)

those are important factors and you can learn these. I think you can't learn other factors.Only stable staff can know

All your points are right on..But it seems to me that many handicappers focus on jockeys and trainers more then they should..The high percentage Jock/Trainer combos are for the most part over bet.

The main factor in this game imo is finding over lays. If your top pick in the race is going off at 5/2 and you think that horse would win 30 times out of 100 races ran. A small profit (+$10)..Your second pick is about the same..But your 3rd pick is 7-1 and you think he could win 18 out of 100 races ran..$200 bet..$288 returned(18 x 16).An ROI of 44%. The $200 bet and $288 is all hypothetical but an easy way to figure out if your horse is an overlay. Now don't get me wrong..I'll play low priced horses sometimes. But almost always use them in exactas that are offering a generous price. Those single digit exacta payoffs are something I don't bet.

[dollarbill]

Bet the trainer. Then the horse. Then the mental and physical midget riding him.

In the flats you bet the midget in harness you bet the widget,,,,,,,,