The one thing about horse betting that

**ironmike** · 04-22-10, 05:24 PM

best advice i can give you is dont bet on the ponies

jk

**DaHoss** · 04-22-10, 05:34 PM

Sometimes you have to read into trainer intentions at times. For example, is there a bigger stakes event on the horizon and they just want to keep him tight and finish as he pleases and not go balls to the wall. or maybe (im not a big tbred guy myself but perhaps if the horse needs to lose some weight they finish back a piece then enter lower classification and carry less weight then they put the hammer down.

Me I just get annoyed when i bet a horse and the following start they win. Happened to me 8 straight bets three weeks ago.

jw · 04-22-10, 07:03 PM

Watch out for a horse that run its fastest (Bris or whatever) ever speed figure last time out. Or that ran a speed figure that was all of a sudden 15-20 points above its "normal" run as there horses rarely run up to that figure next time out.

Disclaimer : This normally applies to lower level horses - not those running for graded/stakes races ... also avoid maiden races as these horses can and do improve by that much ... also horses on second race after a break can and do improve by 10-20 points .... so pick your spots .... also look for "patterns" winner last time out .... stable might have landed the gamble last time out so might not be as interested this time out .. look over horses past figures .. does the horse normally win 2 or more in a row - or do speed figures normally dip after a win/big effort ..

You can also sometimes spot a horse that has two big speed figures followed by a low speed figure ... other horses will steadily improve over four or five starts then dip for two or three starts ... there are lots of patterns out there ... trying to spot them is what the game is all about.

I also like the angle where a horse was claimed for $5k but its immediately put into a $7.5k claimer without first having a workout ... on occasions like this the trainer might be just putting the horse into a race he does not want it claimed out of so that he can see what it can do over a certain distance.

Also look for horses running races "off" distance .... a big run - followed by a start over 2 or more furlongs more or less than the last race ... might indicate horse is just here to make up the numbers .... or a stalker type horse suddenly dropping in distance .. or an early speed horse jumping up in distance (again avoid maidens with this last stereotype) might be in the race .. but might not have been placed this time out to get the win.

Maybe a few things to look at there - hope it helps.

Of course if we could tell all the time when the favorite was not going to spark - we could all make money at this by backing the second/third favorite ... and that's not how it works

Personally I look for angles where the favorite IS here to race .... right track/right distance/good recent workout/high percentage win rates for certain things (first time with blinkers/first start with trainer/second off lay-off) etc.

**thezbar** · 04-22-10, 10:54 PM

The sheets is based on form cycles. Expensive about 25 for a race card. In handicapping contests its useful to know who the sheet players are on. John Hardune from the roger Stein radio show {link via drf.com} bases his selections from the sheets. Track announer Vic Stouffer {hollywood park} current agent for T. Baze is a big sheets supporter as well.

**Richkas** · 04-23-10, 12:35 AM

I dont have any certain angles that I use. All the ones mentioned in this thread are correct and will help. One thing I do know. You can go to the drf or brisnet and look at the charts for every race and every track, 75%-80% of the time, the winner is one of the top 4 favorites. So if your trying to hit a longshot you have basically 2 races every day to pick out of the 5 or so longshots, the right horse. So if your betting horse with big odds, use them for second or third because you will go broke over the long run chasing the big odds. By concentrating my handicapping to just 4 horses a race, I now make a living playing ponies. People will say I'm crazy with this theory, but take a look for yourself and you will see I am correct. Alot of 4th favorites go off at 10/1-15/1. Those are the ones I fire on.

**gtkid911** · 04-23-10, 01:10 AM

Originally posted by Richkas

I dont have any certain angles that I use. All the ones mentioned in this thread are correct and will help. One thing I do know. You can go to the drf or brisnet and look at the charts for every race and every track, 75%-80% of the time, the winner is one of the top 4 favorites. So if your trying to hit a longshot you have basically 2 races every day to pick out of the 5 or so longshots, the right horse. So if your betting horse with big odds, use them for second or third because you will go broke over the long run chasing the big odds. By concentrating my handicapping to just 4 horses a race, I now make a living playing ponies. People will say I'm crazy with this theory, but take a look for yourself and you will see I am correct. Alot of 4th favorites go off at 10/1-15/1. Those are the ones I fire on.

I could say the same thing about chasing favorites.

**wtt0315** · 04-23-10, 07:57 AM

horses are tough

**robmpink** · 04-23-10, 08:14 AM

tough game but fun.

**mtneer1212** · 04-23-10, 08:24 AM

Sheets are good for tracking form, and analyzing performance against hidden track bias...... you occasionally can find a gem there. I still try to stick to playing good trainers, especially off a claim, and try to figure out how the race will set up -- lots of early speed, etc...... then play a closer, etc.

**dollarbill** · 04-23-10, 08:36 AM

Racing is a full time job w/o pay!

Once in awhile you get a bonus.

I lost guite a bit over the years chasing not by choice. It's just natural once you start playing.

If you notice the main players here posts selections but never their $ numbers wagered on each race or the win/lose for the day or year to date.

As someone said here, not betting is the best advice but if you want I say......
The odds are on your side with NBA/NFL/MLB......

Just play the Derby/Preakness/Belmont and of course the Breeders Crown in Harness in October

Good Luck............. BTW

In Harness I use 5 point system when looking at program

Date last raced
up/down/no change in purse
time of last 3 races
closing speed
earnings for year

tiebreaker is driver/trainer

**Brewers in 7** · 04-23-10, 10:21 AM

im gonna try to go see the breeders crown at pocono this year, i hit the pace and hambo each year at the Bigm as well

**Dark Horse** · 04-23-10, 04:41 PM

Thanks for the helpful responses.

This horse forum is a good place.

**MdnSpecialist** · 04-25-10, 10:28 AM

The most important figure in handicapping as a whole is pace figures imo...If a horse show blistering fractions then tires badly..It's highly probable the horse will come back and improve. My favorite type of races to bet on are maiden races. Knowing Pedigree is just as important in these type of races as are pace figures. If you don't know the sires. Then you should bet lightly. Find what your strong points are in handicapping and stick to that..Some like a certain circuit or track. I focus on maiden races 90% of the time at all tracks. Some handicappers focus on jockeys and trainers. I don't but it does work for others. If you already know where strengths are in this tough game. Then handicap those races only for awhile and document how you do..

Anyone who wants to play tournaments. Check out BetAmerica.com..The tournament section of the site just started about 6 weeks ago or so..The players create the tournaments..I'm a player there..My screen name is the same as it is here..