betting horseraces ev+

[phans3]

Hey guys,

i have been searching all over the internet for information about horseraces and also found this forum! I was reading the Horse Racing Betting forum for the last 3 hours and now have a few questions i would like to ask.

In a few threads of the forum i often read that beating horses is very very very hard and some people even think it's not possible w/o insider knowledge.

But people who said this meant mainly the us races right? As much as i heard the takeout is an incredible 20-30% in this which are obv sick numbers.

However the UK/IRL races have a takeout of about 5% nowadays and if you bet via BetFair the vig can be even smaller...
It can't be to hard to bet ev+ in this UK/IRL market if you have a decent knowledge is it? I mean even punters who are loosers in the us but are able to overcome half of the takeout would be able to gain a 7,5-12,5 roi% on there bets in the uk!


I really don't know much about horseracing but want to get into it but only if i have a realistic shot at becoming a winner with some hard work and a good amount of time. This should be possible in the UK!?


thanks for your help and sorry for the bad english

[cecil127]

run away from horse handicapping like it was on fire and thank me later. seriously.

[jw]

In my opinion - its almost impossible to beat horse racing unless you are betting on an exchange ... there are those that do/can... but they are the exception .. not the norm.

Betting on an exchange where you know or can set the odds you are going to get gives you a HUGE advantage. I'm certainly not saying its easy .. but its much more possible using an exchange like betfair/betdaq or even betmaker to a lesser extent.

[TonyP]

ticket construction along with only playing races that offer enough value for a play are ways to stay ahead of the game

[BGboothA]

yeah you have to choose your races wisely...learning not to bet simply because there is a race.

[Dr.Gonzo]

Think of it like betting sports where 10+ teams are playing at once.

Only cheating is at a stage where it is almost celebrated.

Form is so inconsistent you might as well wipe your ass with the guide.

And there are so many variables that NASA couldn't access it effectively.

Apart from all that it's easy money

[sportscash]

It is tough

[sq764]

it CAN be beat, but near impossible.. I know a couple pros that beat the game but ONLY because of rebates.. the best player I know gets a 10% rebate and pushes hundreds of thousands of dollars a year and strives for a negative 5-7% ROI.. So essentially he's making 3% profit with rebates.. I think that is really the only way to consistently win

[sq764]

Form is not always inconsistent... If you're playing higher level tracks with classy horses, the form is there.. If you're playing dogs (Mountaineer, Beulah, etc) you get what you get..

[phans3]

first of all thanks for all the feedback!

it CAN be beat, but near impossible.. I know a couple pros that beat the game but ONLY because of rebates.. the best player I know gets a 10% rebate and pushes hundreds of thousands of dollars a year and strives for a negative 5-7% ROI.. So essentially he's making 3% profit with rebates.. I think that is really the only way to consistently win

ain't you talking about us races?
because if you bet the uk/irl races at betfair the market pays out 99-101% of the bets depending if you are laying or backing. You only pay a 5% commision if you win and only on the amount of the netwin not the betsize you made! If you are betting really active you can even get a 60% rebate so you are betting lines that don't have a vig and pay 2% of your netwinning if you win. That is as good as the vig in soccer football and basketball!To hear that it's nearly impossible to get an edge in a market like this just sounds illogical to me because in all the other spots good punters can make ev+ bets all season long w/ a vig like this.


I know that 99% of you have more knowledge about horses than i do but ain't most of you talking about us races an other races w/ huge take outs?
please correct me if i am wrong!


thanks buddys

[jw]

I know that 99% of you have more knowledge about horses than i do but ain't most of you talking about us races an other races w/ huge take outs?
please correct me if i am wrong!

Generally - US racing is slightly easier to handicap in my opinion.

UK "Handicap" races can have a 30lb difference or more that one horse has to carry over another .... Fields tend to be larger in the UK too ... If you are betting with betfair ... you don't need to worry about takeout at all - as you are not betting directly with the track - you are betting against other punters.

My advice ... Start in the US with non maiden races ... bet with betfair where you can so that you fix your odds and know your risk and return going into the race ... and specialize in just one type of race if you can (6 furlong sprints .. or 1 mile route races) The best advice I can give you is to handicap a race .. narrow the field down to 4 or 5 that you think have a chance - then watch each horses last couple of races so that you get a feel for how they run and how they might run today against these other horses .... then make your decision from there.

It's a long slog ... but if you are willing to put in the time - it can be beat.

[phans3]

thanks jw

i am pretty new to sportsbetting through i know the basics because i already read a lot of sportsbetting forums for some while as well i read the sportsbetting books of Wong and Yao i am also in cardcounting blackjack and playing poker ev+ so i am not new to the hole ev+ gambling scene...

however in sportsbetting i didn't picked the sport i mainly want to concentrate about till now and till i like horse racing and think it's the sport i would enjoy most while betting it i just wanted to make sure i have a realistic chance to get profitable if i put anough time and work in it