Kentucky Derby

**EBone** · 05-03-07, 07:43 AM

I hate to sound like a chalk eater but, at this time, I think I gotta go with #2 Curlin. I still have some work to do but I think this is an incredible draw for him. I'd be willing to guarantee that Curlin's odds don't stay at 7/2.

E

**EBone** · 05-03-07, 08:57 AM

Trifecta:

#2 Curlin
#16 Circular Quay
#8 Hard Spun

A question for the forum: was Prado given the mount for Scat Daddy over Velazquez or did Velazquez decide he wanted Circular Quay over Scat Daddy? It looks to me like it was decided a month ago that Prado would be the mount for Scat Daddy for the Derby if Prado won the Florida Derby, which he did.

If you hold the belief that Prado is the best jockey out there, it stands to reason that Scat Daddy has some value. Opening odds having Scat Daddy @ 10/1 and Circular Quay @ 8/1 with Pletcher being the trainer of both.

I reserve the right to change my mind before post but this trifecta is my base. I may stray a bit before post.

E

**Seattle Slew** · 05-03-07, 10:08 AM

I wouldn't read too much into it. Velasquez rides first call for Pletcher, but not only has Prado emerged as the better jock but so has Garrett Gomez, who Pletcher now rides almost as much as Velasquez.

Pletcher has so many horses, there are plenty of mounts to go around. Gomez was the regular rider for Circular Quay last year but Velasquez picked up the mount this year because GG was riding in California.

I was hoping Gomez would stick with Zanjero but he had to take Any Given Saturday. Brighmohan riding Zanjero will send the odds way up anyways, and he's not a bad jock, so if he's good enough the price will be better with Gomez riding elsewhere.

Originally posted by EBone

If you hold the belief that Prado is the best jockey out there, it stands to reason that Scat Daddy has some value. Opening odds having Scat Daddy @ 10/1 and Circular Quay @ 8/1 with Pletcher being the trainer of both.

I reserve the right to change my mind before post but this trifecta is my base. I may stray a bit before post.

E

**kdmfox** · 05-05-07, 05:25 AM

Originally posted by EBone

I hate to sound like a chalk eater but, at this time, I think I gotta go with #2 Curlin. I still have some work to do but I think this is an incredible draw for him. I'd be willing to guarantee that Curlin's odds don't stay at 7/2.

E

You're going to get about 5-1 on this horse ... The #2 post and history angles will keep his odds up ... Interesting to note that he was a 57k yearling purchase and was sold for 3.5 million after his maiden win.

**kdmfox** · 05-05-07, 05:40 AM

I'm going with #16 Circular Quay ... Good as any and will be about 10-1 ... Hasn't had a race since March 10 which was a negative until Barbaro pulled off the same scenario last year ... Looks to be the best closer in the field ... Off track may help his chances

**gummo** · 05-05-07, 08:19 AM

Street Sense
Scat Daddy
Circular Quay

**moses millsap** · 05-05-07, 08:38 AM

8 Hard Spun

**EBone** · 05-05-07, 08:53 AM

Originally posted by kdmfox

I'm going with #16 Circular Quay ... Good as any and will be about 10-1 ... Hasn't had a race since March 10 which was a negative until Barbaro pulled off the same scenario last year ... Looks to be the best closer in the field ... Off track may help his chances

I think I'm gonna go the opposite way, kdmfox. With the track being sloppy, I think a wire-to-wire win is more likely. I seem to recall Alysheba with McCarron doing this about 20 years ago on a sloppy track. For that reason, I think OWNED and picantel are on the correct path. Hard Spun should be able to take the lead easily from the get-go with no speed around him. If my 'sloppy track' theory holds up, Hard Spun should be the play.

I think my final plays will be:

#8 Hard Spun WPS $50 across
#2 Curlin WPS $30 across
Trifecta $1 Box: 8-2-16-14 (I'll keep Circular Quay in the trifecta just in case along with Scat Daddy) $24

I'll add this as an editorial comment: I think that, with a sloppy track, it is absolute suicide to take any horses outside of Circular Quay, especially with the speed out there.

E

**BigBollocks** · 05-05-07, 10:44 AM

EBone I agree with what you're saying, but just hate that it is the case. I really feel like several of the best potential horses with great Tomlinson ratings in both wet and distances have drawn post positions just rendering them useless. GL today....

**Seattle Slew** · 05-05-07, 11:45 AM

You're thinking about Go For Gin in 1994. Wire-to-wire and about 12-1. I remember liking him and backing off at the last minute for someone else.

Alysheba won from well off the pace under McCarron.

[QUOTE=EBone;263697]I think I'm gonna go the opposite way, kdmfox. With the track being sloppy, I think a wire-to-wire win is more likely. I seem to recall Alysheba with McCarron doing this about 20 years ago on a sloppy track.

**EBone** · 05-05-07, 12:00 PM

[QUOTE=Seattle Slew;263771]You're thinking about Go For Gin in 1994. Wire-to-wire and about 12-1. I remember liking him and backing off at the last minute for someone else.

Alysheba won from well off the pace under McCarron.

Originally posted by EBone

I think I'm gonna go the opposite way, kdmfox. With the track being sloppy, I think a wire-to-wire win is more likely. I seem to recall Alysheba with McCarron doing this about 20 years ago on a sloppy track.

Thank you for the correction. My flashes of memory seem to only be half way accurate.

Another comment: it is really interesting to me that Circular Quay is now @ 12:1 after opening @ 8:1....If there is no rain, this could be a helluva price.

E

**thezbar** · 05-05-07, 12:50 PM

I've got doubles working to Circular Quay for 30,Street Sence for25, Nobiz and Hard Spun for 10 and seven others for in least 2. Enjoy the race everyone+

**kdmfox** · 05-05-07, 01:43 PM

My bets are in:

$50 WPS #16 Circular Quay
$50 PS #2 Curlin
$50 S #8 Hard Spun

$10 Exacta Box 2/8/16

Good luck to all

Attached Files

**EBone** · 05-05-07, 04:25 PM

Originally posted by EBone

I think I'm gonna go the opposite way, kdmfox. With the track being sloppy, I think a wire-to-wire win is more likely. I seem to recall Alysheba with McCarron doing this about 20 years ago on a sloppy track. For that reason, I think OWNED and picantel are on the correct path. Hard Spun should be able to take the lead easily from the get-go with no speed around him. If my 'sloppy track' theory holds up, Hard Spun should be the play.

I think my final plays will be:

#8 Hard Spun WPS $50 across
#2 Curlin WPS $30 across
Trifecta $1 Box: 8-2-16-14 (I'll keep Circular Quay in the trifecta just in case along with Scat Daddy) $24

I'll add this as an editorial comment: I think that, with a sloppy track, it is absolute suicide to take any horses outside of Circular Quay, especially with the speed out there.

E

Just to make it official. I made a couple of changes. Since there is no rain, I switched the amounts on Curlin and Hard Spun and took Scat Daddy out of my trifecta box and increased it to a $2 tri box:

#8 Hard Spun WPS $30 across
#2 Curlin WPS $50 across
Trifecta $2 Box: 8-2-16 (I'll keep Circular Quay in the trifecta just in case) $12 total

Just in the interest of full disclosure. Good luck everyone and enjoy the race. Something about this race gets my blood pumpin'. $252 officially in play.

E

**ukbro00** · 05-05-07, 04:28 PM

I really had some trouble with this field, but I'm going to go with....

#2 Curlin

Expect him to either run away with it or finish off the board. We just have to wait to see how good (or not good) he really is.

**kdmfox** · 05-05-07, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by kdmfox

My bets are in:

$50 WPS #16 Circular Quay
$50 PS #2 Curlin
$50 S #8 Hard Spun

$10 Exacta Box 2/8/16

Good luck to all

With $360 invested the 2 show payoffs returned $315, so I have to be pleased with that, all things considered.

**picantel** · 05-05-07, 05:39 PM

dammit. how the hell did street sense get up the rail from 19th. I watched the overhead. 2 horses that had him trapped moved off the rail and let him through. wtf. I feel like I just got robbed. I knew I had lost though went I saw hard spun go for the lead in :46. good try though

**EBone** · 05-05-07, 05:54 PM

Originally posted by EBone

Just to make it official. I made a couple of changes. Since there is no rain, I switched the amounts on Curlin and Hard Spun and took Scat Daddy out of my trifecta box and increased it to a $2 tri box:

#8 Hard Spun WPS $30 across
#2 Curlin WPS $50 across
Trifecta $2 Box: 8-2-16 (I'll keep Circular Quay in the trifecta just in case) $12 total

Just in the interest of full disclosure. Good luck everyone and enjoy the race. Something about this race gets my blood pumpin'. $252 officially in play.

E

Oh well. Close but no cigar. A net winner but, again, nothing to write home about. I guess I was hoping against hope that Street Sense wouldn't win this race. Had he not, I was planning on hammering the hell out of Street Sense in the Preakness. Now, Street Sense will probably go off at even money at Pimlico and it aint worth all that.

E

**kdmfox** · 05-05-07, 06:35 PM

Originally posted by picantel

dammit. how the hell did street sense get up the rail from 19th. I watched the overhead. 2 horses that had him trapped moved off the rail and let him through. wtf. I feel like I just got robbed. I knew I had lost though went I saw hard spun go for the lead in :46. good try though

Not only did he go right down the rail like a rocket ship, he did it with such ease that it looked staged for a movie ... He ran about 100 yards less than most of those other donkeys ... I know Curlin was a distant third, but he's my preliminary pick in the Preakness.

**pavyracer** · 05-05-07, 07:13 PM

I doubled my money. I thought it was a no brainer. I placed equal bets on Curlin, Street Sense and Hard Spun based on your posts. Thanks guys! I can't even tell the difference between a horse and a mule.

**picantel** · 05-05-07, 07:21 PM

Originally posted by kdmfox

Not only did he go right down the rail like a rocket ship, he did it with such ease that it looked staged for a movie ... He ran about 100 yards less than most of those other donkeys ... I know Curlin was a distant third, but he's my preliminary pick in the Preakness.

Yah it did look staged except nobody throws the derby. I am not sure who the 2nd horse to clear off the rail was but I watched it again and for the life of me I cannot understand why they did it. They still had pace, had the rail, and had open space. Instead the jockey moved him 2 wide and let street sense come right under him. If he stays put like 99% of the other horses do your winner is hard spun. I am gonna be pissed off a few more days on this one. I had hard spun over curclin in the exacta also a few times- quite a few times lol. uh

**kdmfox** · 05-05-07, 07:41 PM

I may be whistling dixie on this, but didn't previous races show that the rail was the place to be? ... Another question ... Does Calvin Borel have any teeth?

**EBone** · 05-05-07, 08:17 PM

Well, I've been drinking and I've done something I shouldn't have. I put my winnings on the Mets tonight. I'm so beside myself about this trifecta that I guess I've started chasing. I had a net gain on the Astros Win minus the Phillies loss today so I've put $200 on the Mets tonight. Not smart but I did it anyway.

I'm convinced Brandon Webb has no testes. Go Metropolitans.

E

All I had to do was replace Scat Daddy with Street Sense in my already committed tri box. Why, why, why?

E

**picantel** · 05-05-07, 08:17 PM

hahaha fox. When I was cursing borel and street sense I called him a toothless ****. you noticed too eh hahaha

**Seattle Slew** · 05-05-07, 11:44 PM

Congrats to the Street Sense backers. I didn't think this horse had enough 3-year-old seasoning to win this race. Interesting stat was the three other horses in the Blue Grass blanket finish with Street sense all ran terrible.

I still think SS is a good bet against in the Preakness. He could just love Churchill Downs. Gotta see who's heading to Baltimore.

Overall, thought the race was lousy. Usually, 3 or 4 horses make a run at the lead. This one was kinda dull.