Saturday, November 7, 2009
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
Zenyatta is a 5/2 favorite this morning, but the longshot trio of Einstein, Colonel John and Richard’s Kid are smart money overlays in Saturday's $5 million Breeders Cup Classic.
Day 1 of the Breeders Cup saw a wide open main event in the Ladies Classic with longshots Life Is Sweet and Mushka finishing in the top two. Today’s eight races of action is headlined by the Breeders Cup Classic and looks to be wide open as yesterday with a field of 13 contenders from around the globe going after the big bucks.
Although Zenyatta is getting all the attention as today’s favorite, this handicapper feels Einstein, Colonel John, and Richard’s Kid all at 12-1 have the best value and are some smart choices to back at the betting windows.
With lots of action in six Breeders Cup races yesterday at Santa Anita, it has set the stage nicely going into Day 2 as gamblers around the world look to chase some losses or multiply their winnings. Although today’s entire card will feature some classic action, it does not get any bigger than the Breeder’s Cup Classic which has showcased some true legends over the past few decades.
Today’s Classic is led by 5-2 morning line favorite Zenyatta (#4) who has captured the hearts of many fans as she is looking for a 14th straight win against the biggest competition faced to date. Zenyatta has been a phenom filly for the past two years and has been a specialist with the synthetic surface with dominating the California tracks at Hollywood, Del Mar, and at today’s track Santa Anita.
She has also been an odds on favorite through most of that run going off at less than even money in nine straight races. Although I do expect a lot of action on her today, the odds should stay above even money as the professionals out there looking to make a score on some longshot overlays will keep the numbers intact.
As impressive as Zenyatta has been, I find myself unable to back her due to the low odds and it will be hard to tell what happens for her when going against the boys today. It is also the first time Zenyatta will be going 1 ¼ miles and she could find it hard to fend off some closers deep in the stretch. I also find it tough to take such low odds when speed figures have been on a decline as Zenyatta’s last two victories came at less speed with some wide trips and puts a question mark as to what will be in the tank of her trunk against the boys.
Regardless of how I feel, Zenyatta’s ownership and jockey Mike Smith are certainly confident and would not have entered this race otherwise. However, I feel they are going after too big of a check here and may have to settle for third or fourth place while others are more worthy of some betting dollars.
In looking at the rest of today’s contenders in the Classic, I went through and had to determine my choice by process of elimination. This happens to me a lot in big races with large fields as you have to get the number of choices down so you can focus on who to back at the betting windows. Although any decision made will have some pro’s and con’s, in the end it is about grinding out a profit with horse racing and remember that as big of a race as the Breeders Cup Classic is every year, it is just one race of many around the world to make some money from. Although I cashed some win and place tickets yesterday with Life Is Sweet and Mushka, you cannot celebrate too long as it is back to business with another big card today – so whether you won or lost yesterday, remember there are still a lot more races to come aside of today’s card.
My first course of eliminating contenders in the Classic is focusing on the synthetic surface. I feel horses who have not had any races on a synthetic track or have faired poorly on them are not worth backing here. Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird (#1) gets the rail today and use to race on synthetic before becoming a household name, but a poor performance in the Goodwood last month at Santa Anita is enough for me to pass on him today. Summer Bird (#3) will get some action at the windows coming in with the kind of stamina and speed he has had with Kent Desormeaux aboard in victories at the Belmont and Travers Stakes, but 9-2 in the morning line is not enough for me to back him here without ever having raced on synthetic or any track west of Kentucky. Quality Road (#12) has shown he can go the 1-1/4 mile distance but like Summer Bird, no starts anywhere except the east coast and no synthetic track makes me pass even with the always capable Velazquez-Pletcher combination intact.
Two members of the field today are coming across the pond from Europe to compete and are also worth eliminating as most of their racing has happened on turf. Twice Over (#5) and Rip Van Winkle (#10) will both have their respective jockeys aboard who rode them to recent victories overseas, but I feel if the ownership was serious about going after this big prize today, they would have at least gotten one prep race in on the synthetic surface in the United States.
Like the European contingent, Gio Ponti (#7) and Awesome Gem (#13) have also had most of their recent success on turf and have not done well on the synthetic surface when switches were tried out there. Gio Ponti failed with a fifth place finish at Santa Anita in the Strub Stakes with the last time a switch was tried and then went right back to cashing tickets on turf since then. Awesome Gem has finished out of the money on two straight synthetic surface starts and would need a lot to have a chance here from the worst post position as well.
Regal Ransom (#11) is another one to eliminate from the field due to not having success on the synthetic surface. A wire to wire win in the Louisiana Derby back in September certainly will turn more heads than the 8th place clunker in the Kentuck Derby this year, but finishing 11 lengths behind the leader last year at Santa Anita when trying out the synthetic surface tells me Regal Ransom will need more than keeping Richard Migliore aboard to have a shot at the throne today.
Another factor to eliminate contenders aside of the synthetic surface is having doubts about going the 1 ¼ mile distance. Girolamo (#9) fits this criteria even with an obvious effort to breed him for distance with legends like AP Indy in his blood. Without any starts past a one mile distance, it is enough for me to pass here even with three straight wins coming into today’s race.
With being able to eliminate most of the field, it left me with only three horses to consider backing: Colonel John (#2), Richard’s Kid (#6), and Einstein (#8). At a 12-1 morning line for all three of these contenders, I am looking to spread out the bankroll going with win and place tickets on this trio.
Colonel John has spent most of his career out west on the synthetic surface and has done well finishing in the money 8 out of 11 times when doing so. This former Santa Anita Derby winner comes into today losing by a neck in the Goodwood last month and impressively tied the career high speed figure also achieved when winning the Travers Stakes last year. It looks to be a sign of some good form and unlike going off as the betting favorite in the Goodwood, some value at higher odds is there today.
Richard’s Kid has been trained by Bob Baffert for his last four races and hit some blazing career-high speed two starts ago in winning the Pacific Classic on Del Mar’s synthetic surface. A closing kick that day saw some digging deep down in the stretch going from fourth to first and with that being the only start at 1 ¼ miles, it makes me feel the same can happen today. With three straight finishes in the money on the synthetic surface, look for some tickets to cash again.
Einstein was the runner up to Richard’s Kid in the Pacific Classic and we might see both hit the wire together again today. As with Richard’s Kid, Einstein also hit career-high speed in the Pacific Classic and is showing good form. Einstein also won the Santa Anita Handicap back in March in his only other synthetic surface start and should like the surroundings of being back out west again today. Although the ownership has done quite a lot of surface switching with Einstein, it seems clear they have picked their spot carefully with a two month layoff here.
Good luck with all of the Breeders Cup action today and remember to focus on overlays – not over-hyped favorites by the media. It is hard enough battling the track’s takeout and still being able to come out ahead. Keep an eye on the tote boards for the best value and grind out your profits with good prices.
By: "Reload" Joe Freda | reload.mysbrforum.com
Zenyatta is a 5/2 favorite this morning, but the longshot trio of Einstein, Colonel John and Richard’s Kid are smart money overlays in Saturday's $5 million Breeders Cup Classic.
Day 1 of the Breeders Cup saw a wide open main event in the Ladies Classic with longshots Life Is Sweet and Mushka finishing in the top two. Today’s eight races of action is headlined by the Breeders Cup Classic and looks to be wide open as yesterday with a field of 13 contenders from around the globe going after the big bucks.
Although Zenyatta is getting all the attention as today’s favorite, this handicapper feels Einstein, Colonel John, and Richard’s Kid all at 12-1 have the best value and are some smart choices to back at the betting windows.
With lots of action in six Breeders Cup races yesterday at Santa Anita, it has set the stage nicely going into Day 2 as gamblers around the world look to chase some losses or multiply their winnings. Although today’s entire card will feature some classic action, it does not get any bigger than the Breeder’s Cup Classic which has showcased some true legends over the past few decades.
Today’s Classic is led by 5-2 morning line favorite Zenyatta (#4) who has captured the hearts of many fans as she is looking for a 14th straight win against the biggest competition faced to date. Zenyatta has been a phenom filly for the past two years and has been a specialist with the synthetic surface with dominating the California tracks at Hollywood, Del Mar, and at today’s track Santa Anita.
She has also been an odds on favorite through most of that run going off at less than even money in nine straight races. Although I do expect a lot of action on her today, the odds should stay above even money as the professionals out there looking to make a score on some longshot overlays will keep the numbers intact.
As impressive as Zenyatta has been, I find myself unable to back her due to the low odds and it will be hard to tell what happens for her when going against the boys today. It is also the first time Zenyatta will be going 1 ¼ miles and she could find it hard to fend off some closers deep in the stretch. I also find it tough to take such low odds when speed figures have been on a decline as Zenyatta’s last two victories came at less speed with some wide trips and puts a question mark as to what will be in the tank of her trunk against the boys.
Regardless of how I feel, Zenyatta’s ownership and jockey Mike Smith are certainly confident and would not have entered this race otherwise. However, I feel they are going after too big of a check here and may have to settle for third or fourth place while others are more worthy of some betting dollars.
In looking at the rest of today’s contenders in the Classic, I went through and had to determine my choice by process of elimination. This happens to me a lot in big races with large fields as you have to get the number of choices down so you can focus on who to back at the betting windows. Although any decision made will have some pro’s and con’s, in the end it is about grinding out a profit with horse racing and remember that as big of a race as the Breeders Cup Classic is every year, it is just one race of many around the world to make some money from. Although I cashed some win and place tickets yesterday with Life Is Sweet and Mushka, you cannot celebrate too long as it is back to business with another big card today – so whether you won or lost yesterday, remember there are still a lot more races to come aside of today’s card.
My first course of eliminating contenders in the Classic is focusing on the synthetic surface. I feel horses who have not had any races on a synthetic track or have faired poorly on them are not worth backing here. Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird (#1) gets the rail today and use to race on synthetic before becoming a household name, but a poor performance in the Goodwood last month at Santa Anita is enough for me to pass on him today. Summer Bird (#3) will get some action at the windows coming in with the kind of stamina and speed he has had with Kent Desormeaux aboard in victories at the Belmont and Travers Stakes, but 9-2 in the morning line is not enough for me to back him here without ever having raced on synthetic or any track west of Kentucky. Quality Road (#12) has shown he can go the 1-1/4 mile distance but like Summer Bird, no starts anywhere except the east coast and no synthetic track makes me pass even with the always capable Velazquez-Pletcher combination intact.
Two members of the field today are coming across the pond from Europe to compete and are also worth eliminating as most of their racing has happened on turf. Twice Over (#5) and Rip Van Winkle (#10) will both have their respective jockeys aboard who rode them to recent victories overseas, but I feel if the ownership was serious about going after this big prize today, they would have at least gotten one prep race in on the synthetic surface in the United States.
Like the European contingent, Gio Ponti (#7) and Awesome Gem (#13) have also had most of their recent success on turf and have not done well on the synthetic surface when switches were tried out there. Gio Ponti failed with a fifth place finish at Santa Anita in the Strub Stakes with the last time a switch was tried and then went right back to cashing tickets on turf since then. Awesome Gem has finished out of the money on two straight synthetic surface starts and would need a lot to have a chance here from the worst post position as well.
Regal Ransom (#11) is another one to eliminate from the field due to not having success on the synthetic surface. A wire to wire win in the Louisiana Derby back in September certainly will turn more heads than the 8th place clunker in the Kentuck Derby this year, but finishing 11 lengths behind the leader last year at Santa Anita when trying out the synthetic surface tells me Regal Ransom will need more than keeping Richard Migliore aboard to have a shot at the throne today.
Another factor to eliminate contenders aside of the synthetic surface is having doubts about going the 1 ¼ mile distance. Girolamo (#9) fits this criteria even with an obvious effort to breed him for distance with legends like AP Indy in his blood. Without any starts past a one mile distance, it is enough for me to pass here even with three straight wins coming into today’s race.
With being able to eliminate most of the field, it left me with only three horses to consider backing: Colonel John (#2), Richard’s Kid (#6), and Einstein (#8). At a 12-1 morning line for all three of these contenders, I am looking to spread out the bankroll going with win and place tickets on this trio.
Colonel John has spent most of his career out west on the synthetic surface and has done well finishing in the money 8 out of 11 times when doing so. This former Santa Anita Derby winner comes into today losing by a neck in the Goodwood last month and impressively tied the career high speed figure also achieved when winning the Travers Stakes last year. It looks to be a sign of some good form and unlike going off as the betting favorite in the Goodwood, some value at higher odds is there today.
Richard’s Kid has been trained by Bob Baffert for his last four races and hit some blazing career-high speed two starts ago in winning the Pacific Classic on Del Mar’s synthetic surface. A closing kick that day saw some digging deep down in the stretch going from fourth to first and with that being the only start at 1 ¼ miles, it makes me feel the same can happen today. With three straight finishes in the money on the synthetic surface, look for some tickets to cash again.
Einstein was the runner up to Richard’s Kid in the Pacific Classic and we might see both hit the wire together again today. As with Richard’s Kid, Einstein also hit career-high speed in the Pacific Classic and is showing good form. Einstein also won the Santa Anita Handicap back in March in his only other synthetic surface start and should like the surroundings of being back out west again today. Although the ownership has done quite a lot of surface switching with Einstein, it seems clear they have picked their spot carefully with a two month layoff here.
Good luck with all of the Breeders Cup action today and remember to focus on overlays – not over-hyped favorites by the media. It is hard enough battling the track’s takeout and still being able to come out ahead. Keep an eye on the tote boards for the best value and grind out your profits with good prices.