saratoga 2022

[JBEX]

R2 #3 hat check girl (20-1)

cost a lot for the pedigree yet still only a high 5 figure
auction purchase..new sire off to a quick start with firsters..lot's of big name trainers with expensive well bred horses in here but worth a shot at a price


R8 #1 handbelle (15-1)


race she ran here last year at this distance wasn't terrible.. did nothing at belmont the following month and they wait till now to bring her back.. big pedigree(TAPIT) homebred, attracts jose ortiz... they feel strong enough to try her here again vs tough competition



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[JBEX]

added R8

[JBEX]

R10 #8 hezastonecoldfox (20-1 ml and 30-1 @ 5 mtp)

[JBEX]

dmr

R5 #5 super renee (4-1)

[JBEX]

R2 #5 mischief motion (10-1)

did nothing in his debut on the turf but find it interesting that saez is climbing aboard..this is a homebred by the most expensive stallion in north america with a dam sire that is way below avg on the turf..I say homebred because either this way or via auction I know he wasn't sold cheap privately..top jock needed for me to give this one a shot



R9 #5 advanced strategy (15-1)

you have a chad brown #3 @ 2-1 who I think will be odds-on and blow away this field..certainty no value there ..I like the races mine ran earlier last year going the 1 turn mile @ aqu (7f today but I like 1 turn miles for comparison vs 6f )..he won with a good figure knocking heads all the way around..then he actually improved his figure by a point exiting an extremely fast race..got some foundation off the long layoff in his last 2 starts on the turf..probably much higher than ml




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[JBEX]

added R9

[JBEX]

dmr

R1 #2 kolomio (6-1) 6pm
R3 #1 blocked (20-1)
R4 #5 almont (5-1)
R5 #8 annie graham (7-2)
R7 #7 spiritist (8-1)
R8 #9 naughty nadine (12-1)






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[JBEX]

added dmr 3

[JBEX]

added dmr 4

[JBEX]

added dmr 8


skipped ahead.. going to look at 5 6 7

[JBEX]

added 5 7..finished

[JBEX]

R3 #9 great workout (6-1)

7f race and I like to group this distance with 1 mile races at either aqu or bel (including 7f of course).. these tracks a mile is 1 turn..also factor track condition into this

this horse won both of the races that qualify under these conditions of distance and track condition..the win 2 back at 1 mile at bel he was within 3 lengths of a very fast pace..the win further back he had to overcome a slow pace to just get up at the wire at 7f ..a lightly raced 4yo who was reclaimed by her 3 starts back



R8 allen jerkens (g1)


#9 accretive (9-2)

just missed in the amsterdam to gunite last out ..sets up for a closer and outside posts do well at 7f
..has the advantage of being over this track..won by almost 6 lengths in his debut which was prior to the amsterdam..big figures in both and like that they were at 6.5f (vs 6f) as conditioners to go 7f today




R10 sword dancer (g1)


#8 soldier rising (15-1)


there is no more consistent performer at 10f and beyond on the turf than this guy..also a very lightly raced 4yo which doesn't hurt for ability to go forward ..probably set up nicely with the 7,9 likely going at it on the front end


R11 travers


#8 zandon (5-1)


I guess you could say that early voting might improve coming back in 4 weeks after being off 10..thing I don't like though is he's run well fresh every other time and according to brisnet figures the pace wasn't that fast in the jim dandy.. not going to say that doesn't bode well to get the extra furlong because he did win the preakness at half a furlong less then the travers distancecan't see anybody pressuring early voting after the jim dandy .. zandon's trip was disadvantageous in that race ...think he will be further back this time and make a big close like he did in his 3 prior races want no part of epicenter at short odds




R12 #5 ripe for mischief (8-1)
R13 #1 parnac (3-1)








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[JBEX]

added R8

[JBEX]

added R10

[JBEX]

R3

winner 4-1 ml and goes off 8-1..won his last race at 6f here opening up 2+ lengths in the stretch with a good figure..so 7f wouldn't seem to be a problem today..so why 8-1.because he only beat sb mcl's in his win..I guess so..just do the easy thing and play him..geez

[JBEX]

R3

winner 4-1 ml and goes off 8-1..won his last race at 6f here opening up 2+ lengths in the stretch with a good figure..so 7f wouldn't seem to be a problem today..so why 8-1.because he only beat sb mcl's in his win..I guess so..just do the easy thing and play him..geez

venting ..I had a different one

[Jellymancan]

venting ..I had a different one

I can relate to your frustration, j. Aggravating in hindsight, I agree.

[Pigpen]

R3 #9 great workout (6-1)

7f race and I like to group this distance with 1 mile races at either aqu or bel (including 7f of course).. these tracks a mile is 1 turn..also factor track condition into this

this horse won both of the races that qualify under these conditions of distance and track condition..the win 2 back at 1 mile at bel he was within 3 lengths of a very fast pace..the win further back he had to overcome a slow pace to just get up at the wire at 7f ..a lightly raced 4yo who was reclaimed by her 3 starts back



R8 allen jerkens (g1)


#9 accretive (9-2)

just missed in the amsterdam to gunite last out ..sets up for a closer and outside posts do well at 7f
..has the advantage of being over this track..won by almost 6 lengths in his debut which was prior to the amsterdam..big figures in both and like that they were at 6.5f (vs 6f) as conditioners to go 7f today




R10 sword dancer (g1)


#8 soldier rising (15-1)


there is no more consistent performer at 10f and beyond on the turf than this guy..also a very lightly raced 4yo which doesn't hurt for ability to go forward
..probably set up nicely with the 7,9 likely going at it on the front end



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Agree in the Sword Dancer. I like the #8 too.

[JBEX]

I can relate to your frustration, j. Aggravating in hindsight, I agree.

glad to hear jelly.. really lol


from what I've noticed over, I'd say easy 10-20 years, is even though it seems too easy the public under values the ability of a horse to repeat on the step up.. in this case going from top level statebred mcl to statebred allowance n1x which is the equivalent of a 2 level class rise.. because of the manner in which he won and the figure (at least on the brisnet's it was good) the ml maker thought the public would bet him to around 4-1.. not saying auto bet horses to repeat but when some of the credentials are there like trainer, jock, figures, set up etc, definitely at least consider them for a play at value odds

[JBEX]

Agree in the Sword Dancer. I like the #8 too.

good to hear pigpen

[JBEX]

added the travers

[JBEX]

added 12 13 (post 257)

[JBEX]

R6 #1 the great maybe (8-1)


field loaded with expensive, well bred horses and the usual suspects who train them

with mine (debuter) you get an under the radar trainer who has provided excellent value with msw' horses.. having an excellent meet with a limited amount of horses

an extraordinarily expensive horse relative to the specs with a sire and dam sire combo that's very speed oriented



R7 #8 high school crush (15-1)

maybe a shot to run the race 8 back where he won a turf sprint.. didn't race on the turf again until her last race at 7f where she did little.. maybe needed that for a little conditioning.. this trainer's avg winning price in turf races is $20+ and she'll be a lot higher than that

[BOA12]

R6 #1 the great maybe (8-1)


field loaded with expensive, well bred horses and the usual suspects who train them

with mine (debuter) you get an under the radar trainer who has provided excellent value with msw' horses.. having an excellent meet with a limited amount of horses

an extraordinarily expensive horse relative to the specs with a sire and dam sire combo that's very speed oriented

On this WP R6. R5 #9 WP too. BOL J.

[BOA12]

On this WP R6. R5 #9 WP too. BOL J.

Hope to get $5 to place R5.

[JBEX]

On this WP R6. R5 #9 WP too. BOL J.

OK b o a.. gl



I added R7

[BOA12]

OK b o a.. gl



I added R7

Just outside of you R7 0n #9.

[Jellymancan]

glad to hear jelly.. really lol


from what I've noticed over, I'd say easy 10-20 years, is even though it seems too easy the public under values the ability of a horse to repeat on the step up.. in this case going from top level statebred mcl to statebred allowance n1x which is the equivalent of a 2 level class rise.. because of the manner in which he won and the figure (at least on the brisnet's it was good) the ml maker thought the public would bet him to around 4-1.. not saying auto bet horses to repeat but when some of the credentials are there like trainer, jock, figures, set up etc, definitely at least consider them for a play at value odds

Bingo. Nice hit in R6. Beach day for me today. Just got back. Looking at cards now, mostly DMR. Good luck rest of today!

[JBEX]

Bingo. Nice hit in R6. Beach day for me today. Just got back. Looking at cards now, mostly DMR. Good luck rest of today!

thanks jelly..may take a look myself

[BOA12]

R6 #1 the great maybe (8-1)


field loaded with expensive, well bred horses and the usual suspects who train them

with mine (debuter) you get an under the radar trainer who has provided excellent value with msw' horses.. having an excellent meet with a limited amount of horses

an extraordinarily expensive horse relative to the specs with a sire and dam sire combo that's very speed oriented



R7 #8 high school crush (15-1)

maybe a shot to run the race 8 back where he won a turf sprint.. didn't race on the turf again until her last race at 7f where she did little.. maybe needed that for a little conditioning.. this trainer's avg winning price in turf races is $20+ and she'll be a lot higher than that

R6 a definite maybe. Outstanding.

[BOA12]

R9 #3 carmel swirl 12-1. My lucky #.

[JBEX]

R6 a definite maybe. Outstanding.

thanks b o a

[JBEX]

I realize this started as a saratoga thread but have been putting everything in here..turned into a while saratoga meet is going on thread


colonial

R3 #8 suwanee chick (10-1) 2:41

10 lifetime starts in which 6 were on the turf (today).. 4 of those were from the rail (including her last race).. the other 2 were good efforts (2nd by 3L and a 3rd by 1.5L).. I don't see this ml

11-1 (good 3rd) hats off mlm


R5 #4 my baton rouge (20-1)

speed and big class drop and think will be lower



R6 #9 bruce banner (6-1)


good back figure on dirt..last race @ 7f the 4f fraction was 45³ and the pace fig says that was 5 lengths slow ..had to be a disadvantage being even a few lengths off that



R7 #6 justin's quest (7-2)




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[JBEX]

added 5

[JBEX]

added 6