jbex plays again

[JBEX]

colonial

R4 #1 argentic (12-1)

a 7 yo with 37 career starts making his 3rd dirt start and today will probably be his first on a fast track..
starts 2-4 back in the spring were over the hurdles and he showed good form..prior to that ran a couple of nice 2nds on the turf..trainer having a nice meet ..intrigued at a price






R5 #10 aurum (9-2)

homebred fts (I think..owners name similar to breeders) with a nice combo of pedigree and multiple works at a training center that legs you up .. trainer having very nice meet..weak field imo



.R7 #2 continental congres (10-1)

2yo statebred stakes..think the even run at belmont could set him up nice here..don't care that she's a maiden..homebred by an elite sire ..trainer and jockey having excellent meets


R8 #4 mr jefferson (6-1)

male edition of R7..same sire,trainer,jock and owner/breeder but this one's a debuter..should be very fit off the fair hill tc works


R9 #10 pau hana (6-1)

ran evenly behind a ridiculously slow pace last out..drops ...2 and 3 back efforts would put him right in the hunt here




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[JBEX]

added 5

[JBEX]

added 7 8

[JBEX]

finished colonial

[JBEX]

prarie meadows

R8 #7 goodnightsugar (7-2) 8:00 pm

extreme outside bias and extra half furlong should help out here



mountaineer

R7 #7 banx turbo (8-1) 9:30 pm

last time he won ran an extremely similar line in his prior race.. returned in 9 days then and coming back in 8 tonight.. even the odds in that prior race were within a point of his last race and we're talking over 30-1..exits an allowance race here where the winner ran a stakes quality figure (at least on the brisnets)





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[JBEX]

added mnr 7

[JBEX]

delaware

R4 #3 cashing big checks (3-1)

this was a question for str (del 4)

jamie ness whose having a great meet at delaware has a 2yo firster
who has worked out very well..he's also someone who has excellent numbers with msw's (roi included).. they paid $1500 (not missing a zero ) at auction for this horse last year
..would you say just based on that ,that she was a good buy ? obviously there's got to be flaws also
..name hunts at some positives lol



saratoga


R4 #3 remembermom (30-1)

realize he did little in his debut but that was not only vs msw but a faster than avg race for that class..gets 1st lasix and some decent moves sprinkled..pedigree info isn't that bad but definitely the type of horse who belongs in mcl..probably a better use underneath


R7 #9 wild william (8-1)

if I excuse his final start last year (2 races back) because of the bad break
and figure he may have needed one off the extended break last out he's run some nice races including up here..last out wasn't a terrible effort anyway factoring in the fast pace..bullet breeze after that race so guessing he's sharp..also 2nd start with new trainer so he's probably a lot more familiar with him now

[JBEX]

delaware

R4 #3 cashing big checks (3-1)

this was a question for str (del 4)

jamie ness whose having a great meet at delaware has a 2yo firster
who has worked out very well..he's also someone who has excellent numbers with msw's (roi included).. they paid $1500 (not missing a zero ) at auction for this horse last year
..would you say just based on that ,that she was a good buy ? obviously there's got to be flaws also
..name hunts at some positives lol



saratoga


R4 #3 remembermom (30-1)

realize he did little in his debut but that was not only vs msw but a faster than avg race for that class..gets 1st lasix and some decent moves sprinkled..pedigree info isn't that bad but definitely the type of horse who belongs in mcl..probably a better use underneath


R7 #9 wild william (8-1)

if I excuse his final start last year (2 races back) because of the bad break
and figure he may have needed one off the extended break last out he's run some nice races including up here..last out wasn't a terrible effort anyway factoring in the fast pace..bullet breeze after that race so guessing he's sharp..also 2nd start with new trainer so he's probably a lot more familiar with him now

R2 ....careless

[JBEX]

saratoga

R3 #7 leviosa (5-2..3-1 @ 15 mtp)

[JBEX]

delaware

R4 #3 cashing big checks (3-1)

this was a question for str (del 4)

jamie ness whose having a great meet at delaware has a 2yo firster
who has worked out very well..he's also someone who has excellent numbers with msw's (roi included).. they paid $1500 (not missing a zero ) at auction for this horse last year
..would you say just based on that ,that she was a good buy ? obviously there's got to be flaws also
..name hunts at some positives lol



saratoga


R4 #3 remembermom (30-1)

realize he did little in his debut but that was not only vs msw but a faster than avg race for that class..gets 1st lasix and some decent moves sprinkled..pedigree info isn't that bad but definitely the type of horse who belongs in mcl..probably a better use underneath






R7 #9 wild william (8-1)

if I excuse his final start last year (2 races back) because of the bad break
and figure he may have needed one off the extended break last out he's run some nice races including up here..last out wasn't a terrible effort anyway factoring in the fast pace..bullet breeze after that race so guessing he's sharp..also 2nd start with new trainer so he's probably a lot more familiar with him now

with 3 favs in order $8.77 for a dime super is a ridiculous overlay

[JBEX]

saratoga

R3 #7 leviosa (5-2..3-1 @ 15 mtp)

out 9-5

[JBEX]

saratoga

R4 #6 enough love (9-2..15-1 @ 15 mtp)

[JBEX]

saratoga

R4 #6 enough love (9-2..15-1 @ 15 mtp)

out @ 14-1

[JBEX]

off R5

[JBEX]

boldface = live

[JBEX]

saratoga

R6 #1 towering orbit (8-1..9-2 @ 20 mtp)


was bet first out and not a terrible effort behind a very slow pace..nice pedigree and trainer is solid 2nd out..rail very good in sprints..connections include owner who is a longtime owner/breeder from as far back as I can remember..sure he'd like to notch one at saratoga

[JBEX]

saratoga

r6 #1 towering orbit (8-1..9-2 @ 20 mtp)


was bet first out and not a terrible effort behind a very slow pace..nice pedigree and trainer is solid 2nd out..rail very good in sprints..connections include owner who is a longtime owner/breeder from as far back as i can remember..sure he'd like to notch one at saratoga

winner $9.00

[JBEX]

12 horse in R7 named "thing" and he's a half sibling to "morticia" lol

[JBEX]

won't be on R8 or 9

[JBEX]

won't be on R8 or 9

done today

[JBEX]

saratoga


R1 #7 office etiquette (9-2)
R2 #7 fastelle (12-1)


R6 #8 eridromis (10-1)

this trainer,owner and breeder has shipped here before and won with a bomb fts (this one a fts also)..this one has a real nice pedigree (win early also)..long steady string of works at fair hill training center (major) which legs them up very well..really bad jock should get you a bit of a price but even so wouldn't be surprised if this one is bet

[Jellymancan]

Good luck JBEX. You can break down races really well compared to me. Do you go back and watch replays? I just have no time. Anyway, since I have time, my thoughts on your picks.

R1- Seems to point to the #1 with pedigree, Todd's stats etc. as many of the other first timers seem mediocre at best. The #2 has some solid works. Your pick of the #7 is sensible, has the experience, cutting back, dropping in class, easier field, Stephens doesn't run many but decent results and I think he won one at the SPA this summer.

R2- Fastelle- Dropping, faced some toughies last summer on dirt, trainer has good turf to dirt sprint stats in NY (but she's been cold aas well as jockey) For a price pick, I get it. Englehart does well in these types of races, has the #1 and #2.

R7- I agree with this pick and will be playing this myself. Agree with everything you said (Kantharos 17% first time, trainer has hit some bombs) Ward's horse and others will be heavily bet. Just noticed 3,6,7 are scratched. He'll still be a decent price, so why not.

Good luck today with all your picks and any others.

[JBEX]

Good luck JBEX. You can break down races really well compared to me. Do you go back and watch replays? I just have no time. Anyway, since I have time, my thoughts on your picks.

R1- Seems to point to the #1 with pedigree, Todd's stats etc. as many of the other first timers seem mediocre at best. The #2 has some solid works. Your pick of the #7 is sensible, has the experience, cutting back, dropping in class, easier field, Stephens doesn't run many but decent results and I think he won one at the SPA this summer.

R2- Fastelle- Dropping, faced some toughies last summer on dirt, trainer has good turf to dirt sprint stats in NY (but she's been cold aas well as jockey) For a price pick, I get it. Englehart does well in these types of races, has the #1 and #2.

R7- I agree with this pick and will be playing this myself. Agree with everything you said (Kantharos 17% first time, trainer has hit some bombs) Ward's horse and others will be heavily bet. Just noticed 3,6,7 are scratched. He'll still be a decent price, so why not.

Good luck today with all your picks and any others.

thanks jelly..I rarely watch replays unless it's a horse I played who had a bad trip..if I see a comment about a bad trip I'll leave it at that although I understand watching is better



I'll go over 1 and 2 later on as I'm pressed for time..stuff you wrote up was very good




good luck to you also

[JBEX]

thanks jelly..I rarely watch replays unless it's a horse I played who had a bad trip..if I see a comment about a bad trip I'll leave it at that although I understand watching is better



I'll go over 1 and 2 later on as I'm pressed for time..stuff you wrote up was very good




good luck to you also

R1


as you said cutback and drop in class as this was a restricted vs the last which was vs open ..1st out at mth wasn't a terrible effort factoring the slow start..agree with what you said about trainer



R2

weak field relative to the class level..realize favorite won but wasn't overly enamored with her going into this..she was involved in better races (as you said) and in the last according to brisnet the pace was fast ..three back
led to the pace call in a route vs msw (2 levels above)
which kind of lends itself to she might well sprinting ..also consider it some conditioning along the way


realize those were on the turf and today was dirt but in a bottom level mcl race it's still significant to me




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[JBEX]

saratoga

R1 #5 materialize (8-1) other 2yo thread also

pedigree on this fts* is outstanding..when I say this i am always taking into account sire/dam's sire/dam (race and progeny record)..md based trainer ships in with a horse who has been working at fair hill tc which I like..gets to race vs restricted msw's ..not sure how he qualifies for this being a homebred but whatever the case they are much easier races


* first time starter




R5 #2 airborne gal (8-1)

like pedigree and works but only thing is trainer is terrible over a decent size sample with firsters (3yo)..this however will fetch a better price ... being it's the spa feel there is an extra incentive to win first out if you've got one that's capable


R10 #2 jimmy dan (12-1) 3WP


has shown a little life vs specials and drop should help..trainer offers lots of value with shippers and overall

[JBEX]

added R10

[JBEX]

del mar.. 7pm


R1 #6 aurelian man (6-1)

[JBEX]

boldface =playing live

[JBEX]

saratoga


R5 #5 big skipper (6-1..7-1 @ 17 mtp)

[JBEX]

R6 pass

[BOA12]

R6 pass

Had the 3. Ran, no wagering. good thing, ran 3rd.

[JBEX]

saratoga

R7 #4 orglandes (10-1ml ..8-1 @ 18 mtp)

[JBEX]

Had the 3. Ran, no wagering. good thing, ran 3rd.

good you were off it..didn't even watch

[JBEX]

saratoga

R8 #8 bella sofia (6-1 ml ...7-2 @ 17 mtp)

[JBEX]

saratoga


R9 #4 cadillac (4-1 ml..5-1 @ 18 mtp)