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  • JBEX
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 01-02-12
    • 23396

    #141
    colonial

    R4 #1 argentic (12-1)

    a 7 yo with 37 career starts making his 3rd dirt start and today will probably be his first on a fast track..
    starts 2-4 back in the spring were over the hurdles and he showed good form..prior to that ran a couple of nice 2nds on the turf..trainer having a nice meet ..intrigued at a price






    R5 #10 aurum (9-2)

    homebred fts (I think..owners name similar to breeders) with a nice combo of pedigree and multiple works at a training center that legs you up .. trainer having very nice meet..weak field imo



    .R7 #2 continental congres (10-1)

    2yo statebred stakes..think the even run at belmont could set him up nice here..don't care that she's a maiden..homebred by an elite sire ..trainer and jockey having excellent meets


    R8 #4 mr jefferson (6-1)

    male edition of R7..same sire,trainer,jock and owner/breeder but this one's a debuter..should be very fit off the fair hill tc works


    R9 #10 pau hana (6-1)

    ran evenly behind a ridiculously slow pace last out..drops ...2 and 3 back efforts would put him right in the hunt here




    .
    Last edited by JBEX; 08-02-21, 12:59 PM.
    Comment
    • JBEX
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 01-02-12
      • 23396

      #142
      added 5
      Comment
      • JBEX
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 01-02-12
        • 23396

        #143
        added 7 8
        Comment
        • JBEX
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 01-02-12
          • 23396

          #144
          finished colonial
          Comment
          • JBEX
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-02-12
            • 23396

            #145
            prarie meadows

            R8 #7 goodnightsugar (7-2) 8:00 pm

            extreme outside bias and extra half furlong should help out here



            mountaineer

            R7 #7 banx turbo (8-1) 9:30 pm

            last time he won ran an extremely similar line in his prior race.. returned in 9 days then and coming back in 8 tonight.. even the odds in that prior race were within a point of his last race and we're talking over 30-1..exits an allowance race here where the winner ran a stakes quality figure (at least on the brisnets)





            .
            Last edited by JBEX; 08-02-21, 06:57 PM.
            Comment
            • JBEX
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-02-12
              • 23396

              #146
              added mnr 7
              Comment
              • JBEX
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 01-02-12
                • 23396

                #147
                delaware

                R4 #3 cashing big checks (3-1)

                this was a question for str (del 4)


                jamie ness whose having a great meet at delaware has a 2yo firster
                who has worked out very well..he's also someone who has excellent numbers with msw's (roi included).. they paid $1500 (not missing a zero ) at auction for this horse last year
                ..would you say just based on that ,that she was a good buy ? obviously there's got to be flaws also
                ..name hunts at some positives lol



                saratoga


                R4 #3 remembermom (30-1)

                realize he did little in his debut but that was not only vs msw but a faster than avg race for that class..gets 1st lasix and some decent moves sprinkled..pedigree info isn't that bad but definitely the type of horse who belongs in mcl..probably a better use underneath


                R7 #9 wild william (8-1)

                if I excuse his final start last year (2 races back) because of the bad break
                and figure he may have needed one off the extended break last out he's run some nice races including up here..last out wasn't a terrible effort anyway factoring in the fast pace..bullet breeze after that race so guessing he's sharp..also 2nd start with new trainer so he's probably a lot more familiar with him now
                Comment
                • JBEX
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 01-02-12
                  • 23396

                  #148
                  Originally posted by JBEX
                  delaware

                  R4 #3 cashing big checks (3-1)

                  this was a question for str (del 4)


                  jamie ness whose having a great meet at delaware has a 2yo firster
                  who has worked out very well..he's also someone who has excellent numbers with msw's (roi included).. they paid $1500 (not missing a zero ) at auction for this horse last year
                  ..would you say just based on that ,that she was a good buy ? obviously there's got to be flaws also
                  ..name hunts at some positives lol



                  saratoga


                  R4 #3 remembermom (30-1)

                  realize he did little in his debut but that was not only vs msw but a faster than avg race for that class..gets 1st lasix and some decent moves sprinkled..pedigree info isn't that bad but definitely the type of horse who belongs in mcl..probably a better use underneath


                  R7 #9 wild william (8-1)

                  if I excuse his final start last year (2 races back) because of the bad break
                  and figure he may have needed one off the extended break last out he's run some nice races including up here..last out wasn't a terrible effort anyway factoring in the fast pace..bullet breeze after that race so guessing he's sharp..also 2nd start with new trainer so he's probably a lot more familiar with him now
                  R2 ....careless
                  Comment
                  • JBEX
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 01-02-12
                    • 23396

                    #149
                    saratoga

                    R3 #7 leviosa (5-2..3-1 @ 15 mtp)
                    Comment
                    • JBEX
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 01-02-12
                      • 23396

                      #150
                      Originally posted by JBEX
                      delaware

                      R4 #3 cashing big checks (3-1)

                      this was a question for str (del 4)


                      jamie ness whose having a great meet at delaware has a 2yo firster
                      who has worked out very well..he's also someone who has excellent numbers with msw's (roi included).. they paid $1500 (not missing a zero ) at auction for this horse last year
                      ..would you say just based on that ,that she was a good buy ? obviously there's got to be flaws also
                      ..name hunts at some positives lol



                      saratoga


                      R4 #3 remembermom (30-1)

                      realize he did little in his debut but that was not only vs msw but a faster than avg race for that class..gets 1st lasix and some decent moves sprinkled..pedigree info isn't that bad but definitely the type of horse who belongs in mcl..probably a better use underneath






                      R7 #9 wild william (8-1)

                      if I excuse his final start last year (2 races back) because of the bad break
                      and figure he may have needed one off the extended break last out he's run some nice races including up here..last out wasn't a terrible effort anyway factoring in the fast pace..bullet breeze after that race so guessing he's sharp..also 2nd start with new trainer so he's probably a lot more familiar with him now
                      with 3 favs in order $8.77 for a dime super is a ridiculous overlay
                      Comment
                      • JBEX
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 01-02-12
                        • 23396

                        #151
                        Originally posted by JBEX
                        saratoga

                        R3 #7 leviosa (5-2..3-1 @ 15 mtp)
                        out 9-5
                        Comment
                        • JBEX
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-02-12
                          • 23396

                          #152
                          saratoga

                          R4 #6 enough love (9-2..15-1 @ 15 mtp)
                          Comment
                          • JBEX
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 01-02-12
                            • 23396

                            #153
                            Originally posted by JBEX
                            saratoga

                            R4 #6 enough love (9-2..15-1 @ 15 mtp)
                            out @ 14-1
                            Comment
                            • JBEX
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 01-02-12
                              • 23396

                              #154
                              off R5
                              Comment
                              • JBEX
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 01-02-12
                                • 23396

                                #155
                                boldface = live
                                Comment
                                • JBEX
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 01-02-12
                                  • 23396

                                  #156
                                  saratoga

                                  R6 #1 towering orbit (8-1..9-2 @ 20 mtp)



                                  was bet first out and not a terrible effort behind a very slow pace..nice pedigree and trainer is solid 2nd out..rail very good in sprints..connections include owner who is a longtime owner/breeder from as far back as I can remember..sure he'd like to notch one at saratoga
                                  Comment
                                  • JBEX
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 01-02-12
                                    • 23396

                                    #157
                                    Originally posted by jbex
                                    saratoga

                                    r6 #1 towering orbit (8-1..9-2 @ 20 mtp)



                                    was bet first out and not a terrible effort behind a very slow pace..nice pedigree and trainer is solid 2nd out..rail very good in sprints..connections include owner who is a longtime owner/breeder from as far back as i can remember..sure he'd like to notch one at saratoga
                                    winner $9.00
                                    Comment
                                    • JBEX
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 01-02-12
                                      • 23396

                                      #158
                                      12 horse in R7 named "thing" and he's a half sibling to "morticia" lol
                                      Comment
                                      • JBEX
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 01-02-12
                                        • 23396

                                        #159
                                        won't be on R8 or 9
                                        Comment
                                        • JBEX
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 01-02-12
                                          • 23396

                                          #160
                                          Originally posted by JBEX
                                          won't be on R8 or 9
                                          done today
                                          Comment
                                          • JBEX
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-02-12
                                            • 23396

                                            #161
                                            saratoga


                                            R1 #7 office etiquette (9-2)
                                            R2 #7 fastelle (12-1)


                                            R6 #8 eridromis (10-1)

                                            this trainer,owner and breeder has shipped here before and won with a bomb fts (this one a fts also)..this one has a real nice pedigree (win early also)..long steady string of works at fair hill training center (major) which legs them up very well..really bad jock should get you a bit of a price but even so wouldn't be surprised if this one is bet
                                            Comment
                                            • Jellymancan
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 03-09-20
                                              • 3695

                                              #162
                                              Good luck JBEX. You can break down races really well compared to me. Do you go back and watch replays? I just have no time. Anyway, since I have time, my thoughts on your picks.

                                              R1- Seems to point to the #1 with pedigree, Todd's stats etc. as many of the other first timers seem mediocre at best. The #2 has some solid works. Your pick of the #7 is sensible, has the experience, cutting back, dropping in class, easier field, Stephens doesn't run many but decent results and I think he won one at the SPA this summer.

                                              R2- Fastelle- Dropping, faced some toughies last summer on dirt, trainer has good turf to dirt sprint stats in NY (but she's been cold aas well as jockey) For a price pick, I get it. Englehart does well in these types of races, has the #1 and #2.

                                              R7- I agree with this pick and will be playing this myself. Agree with everything you said (Kantharos 17% first time, trainer has hit some bombs) Ward's horse and others will be heavily bet. Just noticed 3,6,7 are scratched. He'll still be a decent price, so why not.

                                              Good luck today with all your picks and any others.
                                              Comment
                                              • JBEX
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 01-02-12
                                                • 23396

                                                #163
                                                Originally posted by Jellymancan
                                                Good luck JBEX. You can break down races really well compared to me. Do you go back and watch replays? I just have no time. Anyway, since I have time, my thoughts on your picks.

                                                R1- Seems to point to the #1 with pedigree, Todd's stats etc. as many of the other first timers seem mediocre at best. The #2 has some solid works. Your pick of the #7 is sensible, has the experience, cutting back, dropping in class, easier field, Stephens doesn't run many but decent results and I think he won one at the SPA this summer.

                                                R2- Fastelle- Dropping, faced some toughies last summer on dirt, trainer has good turf to dirt sprint stats in NY (but she's been cold aas well as jockey) For a price pick, I get it. Englehart does well in these types of races, has the #1 and #2.

                                                R7- I agree with this pick and will be playing this myself. Agree with everything you said (Kantharos 17% first time, trainer has hit some bombs) Ward's horse and others will be heavily bet. Just noticed 3,6,7 are scratched. He'll still be a decent price, so why not.

                                                Good luck today with all your picks and any others.




                                                thanks jelly..I rarely watch replays unless it's a horse I played who had a bad trip..if I ​see a comment about a bad trip I'll leave it at that although I understand watching is better



                                                I'll go over 1 and 2 later on as I'm pressed for time..stuff you wrote up was very good




                                                good luck to you also
                                                Comment
                                                • JBEX
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 01-02-12
                                                  • 23396

                                                  #164
                                                  Originally posted by JBEX
                                                  thanks jelly..I rarely watch replays unless it's a horse I played who had a bad trip..if I ​see a comment about a bad trip I'll leave it at that although I understand watching is better



                                                  I'll go over 1 and 2 later on as I'm pressed for time..stuff you wrote up was very good




                                                  good luck to you also
                                                  R1


                                                  as you said cutback and drop in class as this was a restricted vs the last which was vs open ..1st out at mth wasn't a terrible effort factoring the slow start..agree with what you said about trainer



                                                  R2

                                                  weak field relative to the class level..realize favorite won but wasn't overly enamored with her going into this..she was involved in better races (as you said) and in the last according to brisnet the pace was fast ..three back
                                                  led to the pace call in a route vs msw (2 levels above)
                                                  which kind of lends itself to she might well sprinting ..also consider it some conditioning along the way


                                                  realize those were on the turf and today was dirt but in a bottom level mcl race it's still significant to me




                                                  .
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JBEX
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 01-02-12
                                                    • 23396

                                                    #165
                                                    saratoga

                                                    R1 #5 materialize (8-1) other 2yo thread also

                                                    pedigree on this fts* is outstanding..when I say this i am always taking into account sire/dam's sire/dam (race and progeny record)..md based trainer ships in with a horse who has been working at fair hill tc which I like..gets to race vs restricted msw's ..not sure how he qualifies for this being a homebred but whatever the case they are much easier races



                                                    * first time starter




                                                    R5 #2 airborne gal (8-1)

                                                    like pedigree and works but only thing is trainer is terrible over a decent size sample with firsters (3yo)..this however will fetch a better price ... being it's the spa feel there is an extra incentive to win first out if you've got one that's capable


                                                    R10 #2 jimmy dan (12-1) 3WP


                                                    has shown a little life vs specials and drop should help..trainer offers lots of value with shippers and overall
                                                    Last edited by JBEX; 08-06-21, 03:08 PM.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JBEX
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 01-02-12
                                                      • 23396

                                                      #166
                                                      added R10
                                                      Comment
                                                      • JBEX
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 01-02-12
                                                        • 23396

                                                        #167
                                                        del mar.. 7pm


                                                        R1 #6 aurelian man (6-1)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • JBEX
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 01-02-12
                                                          • 23396

                                                          #168
                                                          boldface =playing live
                                                          Comment
                                                          • JBEX
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 01-02-12
                                                            • 23396

                                                            #169
                                                            saratoga


                                                            R5 #5 big skipper (6-1..7-1 @ 17 mtp)
                                                            Comment
                                                            • JBEX
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 01-02-12
                                                              • 23396

                                                              #170
                                                              R6 pass
                                                              Comment
                                                              • BOA12
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 02-19-12
                                                                • 20622

                                                                #171
                                                                Originally posted by JBEX
                                                                R6 pass
                                                                Had the 3. Ran, no wagering. good thing, ran 3rd.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JBEX
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 01-02-12
                                                                  • 23396

                                                                  #172
                                                                  saratoga

                                                                  R7 #4 orglandes (10-1ml ..8-1 @ 18 mtp)
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JBEX
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 01-02-12
                                                                    • 23396

                                                                    #173
                                                                    Originally posted by BOA12
                                                                    Had the 3. Ran, no wagering. good thing, ran 3rd.
                                                                    good you were off it..didn't even watch
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JBEX
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 01-02-12
                                                                      • 23396

                                                                      #174
                                                                      saratoga

                                                                      R8 #8 bella sofia (6-1 ml ...7-2 @ 17 mtp)
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JBEX
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 01-02-12
                                                                        • 23396

                                                                        #175
                                                                        saratoga


                                                                        R9 #4 cadillac (4-1 ml..5-1 @ 18 mtp)
                                                                        Comment
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