keeneland/saratoga limited plays contest

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  • Wabashwonders
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 02-28-20
    • 813

    #71
    Originally posted by BOA12
    Back after 3 day layoff. Saratoga Race3 #2 $2Win/ $6Place. Race4 #7 $2Win / $6Place. BOL TO THE 4 HORSEMEN at The TOGA Party hosted By JBEX. KId can party.
    Found another to play but I think your pick in race 4 is a very good play. #7 Gran Chemin ran 5th in a turf route in first start here last August. The top 3 finishers in that maiden race all ran in stakes races next time out with 3rd place finisher(Micheline)winning. So that was a very strong race. By Constitution, out of a Point Given mare, the switch to dirt and cut back to a sprint shouldn’t be a problem. Bullet work over main track Saturday says she is ready for a big effort.
    Comment
    • BOA12
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 02-19-12
      • 20622

      #72
      Originally posted by Wabashwonders
      John Hancock said Hopeful Princess is one of the best 2yo he has ever had before that maiden win at Churchill. Now in the Asmussen barn, she will be tough. One of my selections may be in that race but it won’t be the #8. Got a few I like tomorrow but haven’t decided which 2 to play here.
      Day One as big as closing day. From now on will not post my contest picks until morning of. 8th toughest on the card. Choose Wisely Wabash.
      Comment
      • JBEX
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 01-02-12
        • 23422

        #73
        saratoga


        R1 #4 sargent drive (8-1)
        R2 #8 mutakaamil (5-2)
        R4 #1 escape fund (10-1) 4WP
        R5 #8 the caretaker (3-1)

        hopefully be the beneficiary of a speed duel..loves the track

        R6 #2 mr everything (7-2)

        entry irad named on both..only if this one goes



        R7 #5 marquet legacy (6-1)

        ran a very similar race here last year off a long layoff.. returned to belmont (understand this is saratoga) in her next start with just about the same amount of time in between to run a solid 2nd.. this trainer very good with this move and not that great overall.. am concerned that #1 astoria kitten (2-1) may wire this field so I'd put half a unit on him..i'd be happy to get back half or break even if he does that



        R8 #7 dayoutoftheoffice (12-1)

        going with pedigree moving forward off the maiden win.. sire and dam sire tremendous class and speed


        R9 #2 country grammer (7-2)

        cost a bunch for the pedigree and I still like to factor this in early in their careers.. won at this distance as a 2yo..upgrade to irad.. not ideal circumstances last 2 races but still ran well


        R10 #4 grudge (15-1) 4WP
        Last edited by JBEX; 07-16-20, 11:11 AM.
        Comment
        • Jellymancan
          SBR MVP
          • 03-09-20
          • 3695

          #74
          Originally posted by JBEX
          saratoga


          R1 #4 sargent drive (8-1)
          R2 #8 mutakaamil (5-2)
          R4 #1 escape fund (10-1) 4WP
          R5 #8 the caretaker (3-1)

          hopefully be the beneficiary of a speed duel..loves the track

          R6 #2 mr everything (7-2)

          entry irad named on both..only if this one goes



          R7 #5 marquet legacy (6-1)

          ran a very similar race here last year off a long layoff.. returned to belmont (understand this is saratoga) in her next start with just about the same amount of time in between to run a solid 2nd.. this trainer very good with this move and not that great overall.. am concerned that #1 astoria kitten (2-1) may wire this field so I'd put half a unit on him..i'd be happy to get back half or break even if he does that



          R8 #7 dayoutoftheoffice (12-1)

          going with pedigree moving forward off the maiden win.. sire and dam sire tremendous class and speed


          R9 #2 country grammer (7-2)

          cost a bunch for the pedigree and I still like to factor this in early in their careers.. won at this distance as a 2yo..upgrade to irad.. not ideal circumstances last 2 races but still ran well


          R10 #4 grudge (15-1) 4WP
          BOOM BOOM JBEX, had a feeling you were going to hit a big one, great call!
          Comment
          • JBEX
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 01-02-12
            • 23422

            #75
            Originally posted by Jellymancan
            BOOM BOOM JBEX, had a feeling you were going to hit a big one, great call!


            thanks jelly.. the way he drifted up was wondering but that's not an exact science.. trombetta a solid long time trainer but not one of the locals or glam guys.. impressive how he did it to
            Comment
            • JBEX
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 01-02-12
              • 23422

              #76
              Originally posted by JBEX
              saratoga


              R1 #4 sargent drive (8-1)
              R2 #8 mutakaamil (5-2)
              R4 #1 escape fund (10-1) 4WP

              winner $71.00/25.40



              R5 #8 the caretaker (3-1)

              hopefully be the beneficiary of a speed duel..loves the track

              R6 #2 mr everything (7-2)

              entry irad named on both..only if this one goes



              R7 #5 marquet legacy (6-1)

              ran a very similar race here last year off a long layoff.. returned to belmont (understand this is saratoga) in her next start with just about the same amount of time in between to run a solid 2nd.. this trainer very good with this move and not that great overall.. am concerned that #1 astoria kitten (2-1) may wire this field so I'd put half a unit on him..i'd be happy to get back half or break even if he does that



              R8 #7 dayoutoftheoffice (12-1)

              going with pedigree moving forward off the maiden win.. sire and dam sire tremendous class and speed


              R9 #2 country grammer (7-2)

              cost a bunch for the pedigree and I still like to factor this in early in their careers.. won at this distance as a 2yo..upgrade to irad.. not ideal circumstances last 2 races but still ran well


              R10 #4 grudge (15-1) 4WP

              3rd @ 17-1.. nose off second.. < 1 length from winner
              (10) 80/ 227.80 [+184%] (16.5 average odds)
              Last edited by JBEX; 07-16-20, 09:15 PM.
              Comment
              • BOA12
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 02-19-12
                • 20622

                #77
                Originally posted by JBEX
                (10) 80/ 227.80 [+184%] (16.5 average odds)
                Wow, knew sheriff in town.
                Comment
                • BOA12
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 02-19-12
                  • 20622

                  #78
                  Originally posted by BOA12
                  Back after 3 day layoff. Saratoga Race3 #2 $2Win/ $6Place. Race4 #7 $2Win / $6Place. BOL TO THE 4 HORSEMEN at The TOGA Party hosted By JBEX. KId can party.
                  (10) 80/47.60 [0.59]
                  Comment
                  • JBEX
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 01-02-12
                    • 23422

                    #79
                    Originally posted by BOA12
                    Wow, knew sheriff in town.
                    couple of big hits,one of them a contest play,on the day along with a $10 winner..would have felt a lot better if I wasn't nosed out for 2nd in the last race but as they say..that's horse racing
                    Comment
                    • BOA12
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 02-19-12
                      • 20622

                      #80
                      Originally posted by JBEX
                      couple of big hits,one of them a contest play,on the day along with a $10 winner..would have felt a lot better if I wasn't nosed out for 2nd in the last race but as they say..that's horse racing
                      You post everyday, none more deserving in the entire industry. Proves my point, to truly succeed, U must fail. Master Degree In Play Your Own Picks. I'm still A Student, 4Life.
                      Comment
                      • BOA12
                        SBR Posting Legend
                        • 02-19-12
                        • 20622

                        #81
                        Originally posted by BOA12
                        (10) 80/47.60 [0.59]
                        Race3 #3/ $4Win $4Place. Race4 #5 /$4Win $4Place. BOL TO ALL.
                        Comment
                        • JBEX
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 01-02-12
                          • 23422

                          #82
                          Originally posted by BOA12
                          You post everyday, none more deserving in the entire industry. Proves my point, to truly succeed, U must fail. Master Degree In Play Your Own Picks. I'm still A Student, 4Life.

                          we've both been doing this a long time.. if you don't struggle for a month or two you're not human.. and when you can only play 30 picks in a little over a month that's ripe picking for a slump imo.. I like the format though of putting up your best play or two of the day.. it makes you think a little more about what really sticks out and what's just ok and its often not an easy decision for me...bol today b o a
                          Comment
                          • BOA12
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 02-19-12
                            • 20622

                            #83
                            Originally posted by JBEX
                            we've both been doing this a long time.. if you don't struggle for a month or two you're not human.. and when you can only play 30 picks in a little over a month that's ripe picking for a slump imo.. I like the format though of putting up your best play or two of the day.. it makes you think a little more about what really sticks out and what's just ok and its often not an easy decision for me...bol today b o a
                            Like minded friends never lose. Love the format, less is more, more or less, in trying to beat the favorite, THE NAME OF THE GAME. Even 2nd could B best. Feel a big day 4ALL who Play, The Name of Any Game. Horse's is the toughest game in town, OUR Format frightens even me! 4Horsemen Fearless.
                            Last edited by BOA12; 07-17-20, 09:32 AM.
                            Comment
                            • JBEX
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 01-02-12
                              • 23422

                              #84
                              R2 #7 fridaybeers (6-1) 4WP



                              R3 #1 universal payday (6-1) 4WP

                              same trainer (michael trombetta) who popped the $71 firster yesterday but I think this horse stands on her own merits.. the race at penn last out produced solid #'s.. been training steadily at fair hill training center leading up which supposedly good for getting them very fit.. rail an edge at saratoga going two turns
                              Comment
                              • BOA12
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 02-19-12
                                • 20622

                                #85
                                Originally posted by JBEX
                                R2 #7 fridaybeers (6-1) 4WP



                                R3 #1 universal payday (6-1) 4WP

                                same trainer (michael trombetta) who popped the $71 firster yesterday but I think this horse stands on her own merits.. the race at penn last out produced solid #'s.. been training steadily at fair hill training center leading up which supposedly good for getting them very fit.. rail an edge at saratoga going two turns
                                BOL JBEX. Have R3 #3, hope we run 1, 2.
                                Comment
                                • Wabashwonders
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 02-28-20
                                  • 813

                                  #86
                                  Originally posted by JBEX
                                  (10) 80/ 227.80 [+184%] (16.5 average odds)
                                  Great start JBEX. Nice when you find a 10/1ML that goes off at 34/1. Awesome day with your other picks too.
                                  Comment
                                  • Wabashwonders
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 02-28-20
                                    • 813

                                    #87
                                    (12) 96/93.60 0.98 (avg odds 7.2)



                                    ​Race 6...#4 Giant Shoes $4WP
                                    Comment
                                    • JBEX
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 01-02-12
                                      • 23422

                                      #88
                                      Originally posted by Wabashwonders
                                      Great start JBEX. Nice when you find a 10/1ML that goes off at 34/1. Awesome day with your other picks too.
                                      appreciate wabashwonders...yeah I thought drifting up like that might be a bad sign but he's an out of towner so not always true
                                      Comment
                                      • JBEX
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 01-02-12
                                        • 23422

                                        #89
                                        Originally posted by JBEX
                                        (10) 80/ 227.80 [+184%] (16.5 average odds)
                                        Originally posted by JBEX
                                        R2 #7 fridaybeers (6-1) 4WP



                                        out at 5-1


                                        R3 #1 universal payday (6-1) 4WP


                                        winner $11.80/4.90

                                        same trainer (michael trombetta) who popped the $71 firster yesterday but I think this horse stands on her own merits.. the race at penn last out produced solid #'s.. been training steadily at fair hill training center leading up which supposedly good for getting them very fit.. rail an edge at saratoga going two turns

                                        (12) 96/ 261.20 [2.72] (14.5 avg odds)

                                        [1.00] = breakeven





                                        .
                                        Last edited by JBEX; 07-17-20, 07:51 PM.
                                        Comment
                                        • BOA12
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 02-19-12
                                          • 20622

                                          #90
                                          Originally posted by BOA12
                                          (10) 80/47.60 [0.59]
                                          (12) 96/47.60 [0.49] Race1 #4 $8Win.// Race11 #2 $8Win. Bol To All.
                                          Last edited by BOA12; 07-18-20, 09:19 AM.
                                          Comment
                                          • JBEX
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 01-02-12
                                            • 23422

                                            #91
                                            R8 #5 holiday bonus (30-1) 3W

                                            stumbled at the start and did nothing last race running off about a 4.5 month layoff..possible he's just a hurtin'horse.. also worth mentioning he's lost at least 19 races in a row... but he's been running against better and his last 2 figures around 2 turns could win this race (although his last one was hugely pace aided). rosario jumps on to ride for the first time .. hmmm?


                                            R8 #6 musical heart (9-2) 5W

                                            even turf effort last out and drops with a switch to dirt.. 2 of last 3 dirt route efforts bury this field and jose ortiz not staying on for no reason.. hey if you're going to drop and win why not do it at saratoga and really looks like what this horse needs anyway
                                            Comment
                                            • BOA12
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 02-19-12
                                              • 20622

                                              #92
                                              (14) 112/47.60 [0.42] Race7 #4 $8win.// Race10 #8 $4win $4Place. Bol To All.
                                              Comment
                                              • Wabashwonders
                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                • 02-28-20
                                                • 813

                                                #93
                                                (13) 104/93.60 0.90 (avg odds 7.0)


                                                Race 9...#1 Speaktomeofsummer $4WP
                                                Comment
                                                • JBEX
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 01-02-12
                                                  • 23422

                                                  #94
                                                  Originally posted by JBEX
                                                  R8 #5 holiday bonus (30-1) 3W

                                                  [COLOR=#000000]stumbled at the start and did nothing last race running off about a 4.5 month layoff..possible he's just a hurtin'horse.. also worth mentioning he's lost at least 19 races in a row... but he's been running against better and his last 2 figures around 2 turns could win this race (although his last one was hugely pace aided). rosario jumps on to ride for the first time .. hmmm?[


                                                  out at 33-1/COLOR]


                                                  R8 #6 musical heart (9-2) 5W

                                                  even turf effort last out and drops with a switch to dirt.. 2 of last 3 dirt route efforts bury this field and jose ortiz not staying on for no reason.. hey if you're going to drop and win why not do it at saratoga and really looks like what this horse needs anyway


                                                  2nd by a neck @ 3-1

                                                  (13) 104/261 [2.51] (14.7 avg odds)

                                                  [1.00] = breakeven
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JBEX
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 01-02-12
                                                    • 23422

                                                    #95
                                                    R5 #1 or 1a ...6W 2P

                                                    different jocks named so probably both go.. like em both.. tip my cap to the 1a a bit


                                                    neither scrathed..either go it's a play



                                                    R7 #3 baba (20-1) 3WP

                                                    gonna go little lighter at those odds

                                                    an absolutely loaded field of maiden 2yo's (all firsters) and to be honest mine has the best class, speed win early pedigree..also a homebred so you know wasn't solid cheap at an auction or privately...but the trainer is way below avg in this category which is a good part of the reason for the ml ..this is the situation I like to find... side note #6 peachy queen (8-1) is by run happy.. connections get a $100k bonus if a rh breaks there maiden at a major track.. if you've never seen him break his maiden first out it's truly amazing (you tube)



                                                    above write up in my thread.. another reason high ml probably is slow works.. Of course it's possible he is just that but works are always a neutral factor for me.. I don't take away for them.. if a horse has an extreme speed class pedigree as this one does top and bottom he may not need the quick moves.. just enhances the price
                                                    Last edited by JBEX; 07-19-20, 02:03 PM.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • JBEX
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 01-02-12
                                                      • 23422

                                                      #96
                                                      added another play
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Wabashwonders
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 02-28-20
                                                        • 813

                                                        #97
                                                        Originally posted by Wabashwonders
                                                        (13) 104/93.60 0.90 (avg odds 7.0)


                                                        Race 9...#1 Speaktomeofsummer $4WP

                                                        (14) 112/129.40 1.16 (Avg odds 6.8)

                                                        Comment
                                                        • JBEX
                                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                                          • 01-02-12
                                                          • 23422

                                                          #98
                                                          Originally posted by JBEX
                                                          R5 #1 or 1a ...6W 2P

                                                          different jocks named so probably both go.. like em both.. tip my cap to the 1a a bit


                                                          neither scrathed..either go it's a play


                                                          $12.20/4.60



                                                          R7 #3 baba (20-1) 3WP

                                                          gonna go little lighter at those odds

                                                          an absolutely loaded field of maiden 2yo's (all firsters) and to be honest mine has the best class, speed win early pedigree..also a homebred so you know wasn't solid cheap at an auction or privately...but the trainer is way below avg in this category which is a good part of the reason for the ml ..this is the situation I like to find... side note #6 peachy queen (8-1) is by run happy.. connections get a $100k bonus if a rh breaks there maiden at a major track.. if you've never seen him break his maiden first out it's truly amazing (you tube)


                                                          out @ 26-1


                                                          above write up in my thread.. another reason high ml probably is slow works.. Of course it's possible he is just that but works are always a neutral factor for me.. I don't take away for them.. if a horse has an extreme speed class pedigree as this one does top and bottom he may not need the quick moves.. just enhances the price
                                                          (15) 118/302.20 [2.56] (14.8 avg odds)


                                                          [1.00] = breakeven
                                                          Comment
                                                          • BOA12
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 02-19-12
                                                            • 20622

                                                            #99
                                                            (16) 128/47.60 [0.37]
                                                            Comment
                                                            • BOA12
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 02-19-12
                                                              • 20622

                                                              #100
                                                              Originally posted by BOA12
                                                              (16) 128/47.60 [0.37]
                                                              Race4 #4 $8Win. Race10 #10 $8 Win. BOl 2 All.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Wabashwonders
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 02-28-20
                                                                • 813

                                                                #101
                                                                Originally posted by Wabashwonders

                                                                (14) 112/129.40 1.16 (Avg odds 6.8)

                                                                Race 5...#10 Luna’s in Charge $4WP

                                                                Race 6...#5 Playthatfunnymusic $4WP
                                                                Comment
                                                                • JBEX
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 01-02-12
                                                                  • 23422

                                                                  #102
                                                                  Originally posted by Wabashwonders
                                                                  Race 5...#10 Luna’s in Charge $4WP

                                                                  Race 6...#5 Playthatfunnymusic $4WP


                                                                  like this pick wabash..good luck !
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • JBEX
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 01-02-12
                                                                    • 23422

                                                                    #103
                                                                    R7 #4 two cent tootsie (6-1) 3WP
                                                                    R7 #11 mia bea star (30-1) 2W


                                                                    R9 #5 central perk (4-1)6W 2P
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • JBEX
                                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                                      • 01-02-12
                                                                      • 23422

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Originally posted by JBEX
                                                                      R7 #4 two cent tootsie (6-1) 3WP


                                                                      out @ 5-1



                                                                      R7 #11 mia bea star (30-1) 2W


                                                                      out @ 50-1


                                                                      R9 #5 central perk (4-1)6W 2P

                                                                      out @ 5-1


                                                                      5 horses viaed for favoritism between 5.0 and 6.1 odds.. rare
                                                                      (17) 134/302.20 [2.25] (14.2 average odds)


                                                                      [1.00] breakeven
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • JBEX
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 01-02-12
                                                                        • 23422

                                                                        #105
                                                                        just a reminder races scheduled for turf only count if they are run on it and it can be specified "fast or good only" if you don't want your plays to count on a muddy or sloppy track
                                                                        Comment
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