By Frank R. Scatoni
Date: 7/19/2018 Race 6: $80K optional-claiming/N1X for 3-year-olds going 9-furlongs on turf Post: 4:33 pm PDT
OVERVIEW Every year, the horses that weren’t quite ready or quite good enough to test the Oceanside on Opening Day end up in this entry-level allowance for 3-year-olds going 9-furlongs on the lawn. Just because they skipped the Oceanside, however, doesn’t mean this is a weak field. In fact, we might see a few of these show up later in the meet in the La Jolla (G3) or the Del Mar Derby (G2), so pay attention to this race.
#1 EAST RAND (12/1), the first Mullins entrant, has done decent work on the lawn, picking up some minor awards, including a third in the Cecil B. DeMille (G3) over this course last year. He’s a bit of a grinder though, so he’ll need everything to go his way in this big full field. At least Quinonez can save ground until he’s ready to produce this guy’s stretch run—and if a hole opens up late, he might be able to get up for the win, since his best race came at this distance two back. GRADE: B.
#2 MAJESTIC EAGLE (7/2) has never run a bad race on turf, and he’s a perfect 2-for-2 in the exacta going today’s distance. He has tactical speed, so Franco will have options here, and you have to like the fact that he just ran a respectable second at 16/1 in his first try against winners, which also happened to be against older horses. He’ll appreciate a return back to the sophomore ranks. GRADE: A.
#3 HE’S LIKE VIOLENCE (15/1) sat in second, well off a runaway leader before making his move to win going away. It was a decent effort, but it came against $50K maiden-claimers. He now has to face proper allowance runners while also racing beyond a mile for the first time. His come-home times at a mile aren’t anything special, so I’m thinking he might need lesser company to shine. GRADE: X.
#4 ANDESH (IRE) (6/1) has never finished out of the money in his native Ireland, so we’ll see what this European import can do stateside in his first start for D’Amato. The fact that Desormeaux takes the call makes me think that D’Amato will have this guy ready to run right off the boat even with just two published works to his name. First Lasix is always a plus, and we all know that European runners transfer their form very well here in the States. The only negative is that D’Amato is on an 0-for-12 run with these types of imports. GRADE: A.
#5 BUCKSTOPPER KIT (20/1), the second Mullins runner, was 9/2 at this level back in March, and the best he could do was a sixth-place finish, losing to a few of these in the process. He’s been freshened and gelded for his summer campaign, but he’ll need a big step forward today, and note that he loses the services of Prat. GRADE: X.
#6 INSCOM (9/2) is where Prat ends up, and that’s significant because he rode this horse to victory last year when he broke his maiden impressively going a mile at Santa Anita. Since then, this runner has been pretty unfortunate, squaring off against some quality horses who were just better than he was. Toss his poor effort on a yielding course in the American Turf (G2) at Churchill—and toss his other poor races where he’s had excuses—and you’ll see how consistent he is. He’s never been this far—and he has been run down in the lane a few times while going a mile so maybe 9-furlongs is a bridge too far—but he has the right running style to get a perfect stalking trip, and then we’ll see if he can finally break through for win number-two. GRADE: B.
#7 MAGIC MUSKETIER (6/1) has two wins to his credit, so that should count for something—but that second win came in a $100K claiming race against five other runners, and he needed a 7-pound weightbreak to get his nose on the wire first. His tries at this N1X level haven’t been as good, so he’s going to have to do a lot better today. On the plus side, he retains his 7-pound weight-break, so maybe he can stay on late for a slice. GRADE: X.
#8 MONGOLIAN GROOM (12/1) was running in $30K maiden-claimers on dirt before his connections tried him against MSWs on turf, and he responded with a wire-to-wire win at 6/1. He was game in victory, but two things stand out: first, he was part of a pretty slow pace; second, the Santa Anita turf course was a speedway the last month of the meet, so I’ll take every wire win there with a pinch of salt. Some could say he’s just a better animal on turf, but I’d like to see him run well again before buying that argument. GRADE: X.
#9 SOLTERO (12/1), the second D’Amato trainee, also broke his maiden in front-running fashion on the Santa Anita turf, so I won’t read too much into that effort—but his race before that might have even been better, where he tried to stalk and pounce in a 9-furlong race that had absolutely no early pace. He looks like a horse who can continue to develop under D’Amato’s tutelage, so it wouldn’t shock me if he ran well again, but he is facing winners for the first time, so he will need a decent step forward today. Note that he was entered in the Oceanside on Opening Day, yet D’Amato chose to run in this softer spot. GRADE: B.
#10 EPICAL (20/1) broke his maiden at first-asking, going long on the turf—and that’s never an easy thing to do. He also beat a nice horse named Fibonacci, so it was a decent field. His next try came in the El Camino Real Derby on the synth up north, and that didn’t work out so well for him. He was freshened after that and then came back to try older N1X allowance runners to no avail (losing to fellow 3-year-old Majestic Eagle in the process). The fact that he won his debut suggests there is some talent here, but he’ll have to prove that his maiden-breaker was no fluke after two poor races. Plus, Espinoza will have to work out a trip from the 10-hole for this recently gelded son of Uncle Mo. GRADE: C.
#11 TRUE LOYALTY (6/1) shows up a new gelding after several failed attempts at the N1X level already. He hasn’t run all that badly, but he’s lacked the eye of the tiger in the lane, so perhaps the “ultimate equipment change” can be a difference-maker today. Note that he lost by a nose to Magic Musketier two back in a $100K claiming race, and East Rand also has him on form. He’s not impossible for a slice, especially with C-Nak in the irons, since you know the cagey rider will go right to the rail, save all the ground, and then look to bull through into the lane for a piece of the pie. GRADE: C.
#12 FLIP THE COIN JAN (8/1) has proven to be an astute claim, since he’s now won twice for O’Neill (once at the $62.5K maiden-claiming level and once in a starter-allowance). He has speed, so Gutierrez will have to go hard from out here so he can get good position before leaving the chute, and that might be an issue for a horse who has never been two turns on the turf. Plus, his starter-allowance victory came on the front end down the hill on a course that was heavily playing to speed. He’ll have to really earn this victory today. GRADE: X.
CONCLUSION #2 MAJESTIC EAGLE is the morning-line favorite, so he does me no favors in the contest at 7/2 or lower. As for #4 ANDESH (IRE), 6/1 seems like a square price, though I suspect if he’s really live, he’ll end up going off shorter. I’ll rely on the board to guide my play, hoping the 6/1 holds on ANDESH (IRE), but if not, I’ll look to my “B” contenders #1 EAST RAND or #9 SOLTERO at their 12/1 morning-line.
Date: 7/19/2018 Race 6: $80K optional-claiming/N1X for 3-year-olds going 9-furlongs on turf Post: 4:33 pm PDT
OVERVIEW Every year, the horses that weren’t quite ready or quite good enough to test the Oceanside on Opening Day end up in this entry-level allowance for 3-year-olds going 9-furlongs on the lawn. Just because they skipped the Oceanside, however, doesn’t mean this is a weak field. In fact, we might see a few of these show up later in the meet in the La Jolla (G3) or the Del Mar Derby (G2), so pay attention to this race.
#1 EAST RAND (12/1), the first Mullins entrant, has done decent work on the lawn, picking up some minor awards, including a third in the Cecil B. DeMille (G3) over this course last year. He’s a bit of a grinder though, so he’ll need everything to go his way in this big full field. At least Quinonez can save ground until he’s ready to produce this guy’s stretch run—and if a hole opens up late, he might be able to get up for the win, since his best race came at this distance two back. GRADE: B.
#2 MAJESTIC EAGLE (7/2) has never run a bad race on turf, and he’s a perfect 2-for-2 in the exacta going today’s distance. He has tactical speed, so Franco will have options here, and you have to like the fact that he just ran a respectable second at 16/1 in his first try against winners, which also happened to be against older horses. He’ll appreciate a return back to the sophomore ranks. GRADE: A.
#3 HE’S LIKE VIOLENCE (15/1) sat in second, well off a runaway leader before making his move to win going away. It was a decent effort, but it came against $50K maiden-claimers. He now has to face proper allowance runners while also racing beyond a mile for the first time. His come-home times at a mile aren’t anything special, so I’m thinking he might need lesser company to shine. GRADE: X.
#4 ANDESH (IRE) (6/1) has never finished out of the money in his native Ireland, so we’ll see what this European import can do stateside in his first start for D’Amato. The fact that Desormeaux takes the call makes me think that D’Amato will have this guy ready to run right off the boat even with just two published works to his name. First Lasix is always a plus, and we all know that European runners transfer their form very well here in the States. The only negative is that D’Amato is on an 0-for-12 run with these types of imports. GRADE: A.
#5 BUCKSTOPPER KIT (20/1), the second Mullins runner, was 9/2 at this level back in March, and the best he could do was a sixth-place finish, losing to a few of these in the process. He’s been freshened and gelded for his summer campaign, but he’ll need a big step forward today, and note that he loses the services of Prat. GRADE: X.
#6 INSCOM (9/2) is where Prat ends up, and that’s significant because he rode this horse to victory last year when he broke his maiden impressively going a mile at Santa Anita. Since then, this runner has been pretty unfortunate, squaring off against some quality horses who were just better than he was. Toss his poor effort on a yielding course in the American Turf (G2) at Churchill—and toss his other poor races where he’s had excuses—and you’ll see how consistent he is. He’s never been this far—and he has been run down in the lane a few times while going a mile so maybe 9-furlongs is a bridge too far—but he has the right running style to get a perfect stalking trip, and then we’ll see if he can finally break through for win number-two. GRADE: B.
#7 MAGIC MUSKETIER (6/1) has two wins to his credit, so that should count for something—but that second win came in a $100K claiming race against five other runners, and he needed a 7-pound weightbreak to get his nose on the wire first. His tries at this N1X level haven’t been as good, so he’s going to have to do a lot better today. On the plus side, he retains his 7-pound weight-break, so maybe he can stay on late for a slice. GRADE: X.
#8 MONGOLIAN GROOM (12/1) was running in $30K maiden-claimers on dirt before his connections tried him against MSWs on turf, and he responded with a wire-to-wire win at 6/1. He was game in victory, but two things stand out: first, he was part of a pretty slow pace; second, the Santa Anita turf course was a speedway the last month of the meet, so I’ll take every wire win there with a pinch of salt. Some could say he’s just a better animal on turf, but I’d like to see him run well again before buying that argument. GRADE: X.
#9 SOLTERO (12/1), the second D’Amato trainee, also broke his maiden in front-running fashion on the Santa Anita turf, so I won’t read too much into that effort—but his race before that might have even been better, where he tried to stalk and pounce in a 9-furlong race that had absolutely no early pace. He looks like a horse who can continue to develop under D’Amato’s tutelage, so it wouldn’t shock me if he ran well again, but he is facing winners for the first time, so he will need a decent step forward today. Note that he was entered in the Oceanside on Opening Day, yet D’Amato chose to run in this softer spot. GRADE: B.
#10 EPICAL (20/1) broke his maiden at first-asking, going long on the turf—and that’s never an easy thing to do. He also beat a nice horse named Fibonacci, so it was a decent field. His next try came in the El Camino Real Derby on the synth up north, and that didn’t work out so well for him. He was freshened after that and then came back to try older N1X allowance runners to no avail (losing to fellow 3-year-old Majestic Eagle in the process). The fact that he won his debut suggests there is some talent here, but he’ll have to prove that his maiden-breaker was no fluke after two poor races. Plus, Espinoza will have to work out a trip from the 10-hole for this recently gelded son of Uncle Mo. GRADE: C.
#11 TRUE LOYALTY (6/1) shows up a new gelding after several failed attempts at the N1X level already. He hasn’t run all that badly, but he’s lacked the eye of the tiger in the lane, so perhaps the “ultimate equipment change” can be a difference-maker today. Note that he lost by a nose to Magic Musketier two back in a $100K claiming race, and East Rand also has him on form. He’s not impossible for a slice, especially with C-Nak in the irons, since you know the cagey rider will go right to the rail, save all the ground, and then look to bull through into the lane for a piece of the pie. GRADE: C.
#12 FLIP THE COIN JAN (8/1) has proven to be an astute claim, since he’s now won twice for O’Neill (once at the $62.5K maiden-claiming level and once in a starter-allowance). He has speed, so Gutierrez will have to go hard from out here so he can get good position before leaving the chute, and that might be an issue for a horse who has never been two turns on the turf. Plus, his starter-allowance victory came on the front end down the hill on a course that was heavily playing to speed. He’ll have to really earn this victory today. GRADE: X.
CONCLUSION #2 MAJESTIC EAGLE is the morning-line favorite, so he does me no favors in the contest at 7/2 or lower. As for #4 ANDESH (IRE), 6/1 seems like a square price, though I suspect if he’s really live, he’ll end up going off shorter. I’ll rely on the board to guide my play, hoping the 6/1 holds on ANDESH (IRE), but if not, I’ll look to my “B” contenders #1 EAST RAND or #9 SOLTERO at their 12/1 morning-line.
