belmont stakes 2018

[JBEX]

figure I'd start a new thread for my belmont selection..
got a chance to look at the PP's without knowing the post of course.. don't think that'd change my mind anyway in this race no matter where free drop billy lands

stellar 2yo campaign prior to the breeders cup juvenile..
not sure what happened there and it might be that he was just a little tired from the 4 big races he ran prior.. these included first out maiden win at churchill//race 2 -2nd
by a length with a tough trip in the sanford at saratoga/3rd race was a neck loss in the G1 hopefull where he was closing while 5 wide in the upper stretch and the chart callers comment was "good energy"// 4th start was a win in the grade 1 keeneland futurity at 8.5f..by far the most accomplished juvenile record in this race and to me that's not unimportant.. like the early seasoning even at this stage of the campaign

first race as a 3yo a 2nd in the holy bull at gulfstream and that is fine to me.. he was 3rd in the gotham next with a very wide trip but I like his running line related to running in the belmont.. very even race all the way around as he passed 4 horses and gradually dropped back about 3 lengths over the course of the race.. I find horses who do this often like to go further so a positive for me.. ran 4th in the blue grass and was placed 3rd via disqualification of sporting chance who bore out beyond badly.. looked like he had some horse in the stretch but no way was he going to win that one.. in the derby broke from the 2 post which isn't ideal and with the condition of that track I'm just tossing that one

now he gets 5 weeks rest and I really think he's up to a big race.. 2 blazing fast workouts at churchill (47.3 b 1/51)
(59.3 b 2/25) say to me he's doing well.. dale romans definitely one of the better trainers in the country so he's in good hands in that respect.. he's by union rags out of a stakes winning giant's causeway mare which is above average distance pedigree..

justify is an automatic bet against for me for obvious reasons.. a concrete stat against him is since 2000 the belmont winner has come from the derby or preakness winner 4 times in 36 attempts and two of those of course were american pharoah.. I also don't like that he won both of the 1st 2 legs on sloppy tracks.. I feel the surface (big sandy) and distance are enough of a challenge without having to deal with a new track condition(hopefully) that you didn't face in the first 2 legs.. maybe that's being a little picky but all in all like the package your getting here

[Easy-Rider 66]

Good write up. Will wait until later in the week and ask STR his thoughts leading up to the race. Wonder what Free Drop Billy ML will be? GL.

[JBEX]

Good write up. Will wait until later in the week and ask STR his thoughts leading up to the race. Wonder what Free Drop Billy ML will be? GL.

thanks

found this.. supposedly early belmont ml odds

Justify 4-5
Hofburg 4-1
Bravazo 7-1
Vino Rosso 8-1
Tenfold 10-1
Blended Citizen 14-1
Gronkowski 25-1
Noble Indy 33-1
Free Drop Billy 50-1

[Easy-Rider 66]

Looks like you are swinging for the fences with that 50/1 ML for Free Drop Billy. One horse I am throwing out without even looking will be Bravazo as he will be running in all 3 legs of Triple crown. In addition, not a Lucas Fan. Interesting race.

[Heppy10]

the only horse i can see beating justify is audible but hes a closer and i dont see any speed in this race, justify will have an easy trip for the triple crown

[Easy-Rider 66]

the only horse i can see beating justify is audible but hes a closer and i dont see any speed in this race, justify will have an easy trip for the triple crown

Yeah Audible not running. Noble Indy has speed but read an article on Bloodhorse that said unless he draws inside he may not go to the front and challenge Justify. Will be interesting to see if any horse puts early pressure on Justify.

[JBEX]

Looks like you are swinging for the fences with that 50/1 ML for Free Drop Billy. One horse I am throwing out without even looking will be Bravazo as he will be running in all 3 legs of Triple crown. In addition, not a Lucas Fan. Interesting race.

didn't know his odds going in to handicapping this race.. doesn't change my mind..the average win price for the belmont since 2000 is $32.60 so what better race to take a swing.. lukas is 3 for his last 98 in graded stakes so no argument there

[JBEX]

Yeah Audible not running. Noble Indy has speed but read an article on Bloodhorse that said unless he draws inside he may not go to the front and challenge Justify. Will be interesting to see if any horse puts early pressure on Justify.

easy when you see the brisnet's his pace figures in the louisiana derby are just as good as justifys except for justify's 2nd career start which was in the mud.. hard for me to think they won't try to take advantage of that considering he's such a longshot anyway and besides looks like no one else is up to the job.. i would hope he draws outside of justify so he can press him if he's not able to get the lead..either way he's the best hope to apply pressure of any of the horses in this field

[Easy-Rider 66]

Noble Indy has the speed to set or push the pace in theBelmont Stakes, and if he applies pressure to Justify during the secondhalf-mile, he could potentially make things tricky for the Triple Crownaspirant. But the question is this—will Noble Indy use his speed? Noble Indy isowned in partnership by WinStar Farm (the majority owner of Justify) and RepoleStable (who owns a share of Vino Rosso), which could make things tricky from atactical perspective. If Noble Indy goes out fast, it could benefit Vino Rossowhile putting Justify at a disadvantage; if Noble Indy takes back, he won't bedoing Vino Rosso any favors while conceding the advantage to Justify.The way I see it, this actually leaves the strategy forNoble Indy relatively clear. Three of his four best efforts, including hisLouisiana Derby victory, came when Noble Indy tracked the pace, so unless hedraws an inside post and is forced to commit to the lead, I expect to see NobleIndy settle close to the pace in the Belmont Stakes without getting aggressivein battling for the lead. This strategy would be in line with Noble Indy'sestablished running style and could give him every chance to win or hit theboard without particularly compromising either of his stablemates.

From Part of Blood horse article.

[JBEX]

yes I agree with what they're saying.. the neutral thing to do would be track justify rather than aggressively try for the lead... the ownership of these horses being who they are have to think there's a bias to letting justify get this done ..that's not a good thing overall for racing

[Heppy10]

anyone know why audible didnt go into this race?

[Easy-Rider 66]

anyone know why audible didnt go into this race?

I think I read that Pletcher said he had low energy. But I think the real reason is that he is owned by same outfit as Justify.

[JBEX]

I think I read that Pletcher said he had low energy. But I think the real reason is that he is owned by same outfit as Justify.

this is really ridiculous.. don't ever remember this many ownership overlaps

[Easy-Rider 66]

Looks like there is a chance Justify will catch another sloppy track on Sat. 50% chance of rain for Elmont, NY.

[Easy-Rider 66]

Post Draw just completed for Belmont. Here is the Draw:

1. Justify 4/5
2. Free Drop Billy 30/1
3. Bravazo 8/1
4. Hoffburg 9/2
5. Restoring Hope 30/1
6. Gronkoswski 12/1
7. Ten Fold 12/1
8. Vino Rossi 8/1
9. Noble Indy 30/1
10. Blended Citizen 15/1

[JBEX]

thanks easy..possibly rain again sucks.. so I get to break just outside of the big guy.. really think billy has the speed if he wants to use it.. look at the pace figures in the sprints at saratoga and he was relatively close to the front in the fast paced wood memorial.. couple that with the recent works and I think he'll be up close early which doesn't look
to be the case if you look at his last 3 races..I see an aggressive approach for him in this race and don't think he'll be towards the back

[Easy-Rider 66]

[JBEX]

hard to justify, pun intended, 4-5

http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-beyers-tell-slowing-story-justify

[StackinGreen]

I wouldn't touch unless 3-2 minimum, that post draw makes me think it's gotta be at least 2 or 3-1 now, which means he's a bet against

[JBEX]

I wouldn't touch unless 3-2 minimum, that post draw makes me think it's gotta be at least 2 or 3-1 now, which means he's a bet against

I think even money or higher is a definite negative.. good chance something's up, even more so if it's an off track

[StackinGreen]

The one thing I like (maybe the only thing?) about your boy Free Drop is the dosage profile and index (1.72).

[JBEX]

The one thing I like (maybe the only thing?) about your boy Free Drop is the dosage profile and index (1.72).

that's fine.. I explained my position..everybody weighs things differently which is what makes it interesting

[StackinGreen]

Sorry, he's a May foal too (2nd thing)

[JBEX]

Sorry, he's a May foal too (2nd thing)

ok.. you've made your point.. dosage means nothing to me as I go by avg winning distance of the sire and dam sire.. the may foal shows you're just trying to bust my balls

[StackinGreen]

I was serious. You may have the last laugh as this would be a huge score. I'm going against Justify too, and I wouldn't be shocked if your boy did it, just surprised. The only ones I'm not really playing into (to win at least) are the 2, 3 and the 6, but I won't neglect to fill underneath

Right now, I like Tenfold better than Bravazo. I hate that they are going to pound Hofburg, so it'll only be in exotics and horizontals that I use him.

[JBEX]

the biggest knock on mine is (imo) with the non effort in the derby will he have enough fitness to get it done.. I like the way he ran 2 and 3 back and feel it translates well to this oddball distance he'll be running.. something he'll never be doing again unless he runs in the brooklyn handicap..I'm not just putting him out there because he's 30-1 morning line.. can understand being put off by the derby and so so efforts in the aforementioned other races
but really feel the whole package isn't bad

[StackinGreen]

Why FDB over the other 30-1, Noble Indy? Some are making the case for (at least as a long price) Indy in that he can get loose on the lead and just keep going, as has been done. I'm not saying I believe this, but I personally see more in him than FDB, though I do like the Dosage Index for your boy ...

[Easy-Rider 66]

Why FDB over the other 30-1, Noble Indy? Some are making the case for (at least as a long price) Indy in that he can get loose on the lead and just keep going, as has been done. I'm not saying I believe this, but I personally see more in him than FDB, though I do like the Dosage Index for your boy ...

The way I see it Stackin is that JBEX likes Free Drop not because he is 30/1 ML but because he fits his methodology of how he picks his horse. Have not looked it over yet, but will give all the ponies running a long look. Going to try and beat Justify for sure here. GL.

[StackinGreen]

The way I see it Stackin is that JBEX likes Free Drop not because he is 30/1 ML but because he fits his methodology of how he picks his horse. Have not looked it over yet, but will give all the ponies running a long look. Going to try and beat Justify for sure here. GL.

[JBEX]

Why FDB over the other 30-1, Noble Indy? Some are making the case for (at least as a long price) Indy in that he can get loose on the lead and just keep going, as has been done. I'm not saying I believe this, but I personally see more in him than FDB, though I do like the Dosage Index for your boy ...

bottom line is I rate the blue grass and gotham higher than other people.. I think running like that at middle distances is an indicator that he might like 12f.. plus the other things I said about his back class as a 2yo.. the holy bull fine and the derby with his post and track conditions is a toss for me..

nothing wrong with yours.. his pace figures in the louisiana derby were as good as justify's.. if justify is not up to it or gets pinned inside of him could work out well for you.. my biggest knock would be your positive on mine.. he's out of a storm boot mare and the average winning distance of his progeny 6.3f which is really short.. he may not want 12f.. take charge indy a relatively new sire but of course by the great distance sire ap indy so the top is OK

[JBEX]

tenfold would be my other.. caught behind magnum moon in a real slow pace arkansas derby and of course nothing wrong with his two prior to that.. by curlin out of a tapit mare great class and distance bloodlines

[StackinGreen]

tenfold would be my other.. caught behind magnum moon in a real slow pace arkansas derby and of course nothing wrong with his two prior to that.. by curlin out of a tapit mare great class and distance bloodlines

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

I love tenfold here...maybe too much but he's my pick
not money to be made w/ Justify as the winner

[Easy-Rider 66]

JBEX: Going to buy the T-Graph Info for the Belmont and 4 other stake races tomorrow. Usually purchase the sheet info a couple of times per year.

[JBEX]

JBEX: Going to buy the T-Graph Info for the Belmont and 4 other stake races tomorrow. Usually purchase the sheet info a couple of times per year.

ok easy.. good luck with them