Hurry up and take the field against pharo

bob6199 · 05-16-15, 05:26 PM

thanks for the fade

reigle9 · 05-16-15, 05:58 PM

Love all the pros that come out of the woodwork during events. The most common knowledge tidbit with 3 race a year bettors (me) was that he liked the slop. God you fukking dorks are annoying.

trytrytry · 05-16-15, 09:50 PM

that might have been the worst idea of the young year.

horse is amazing in the slop and none of the others were. (maybe slow mr Z)...easiest triple crown " trip " in 25 years...even easier than smarty jones derby trip in the slop.

StackinGreen · 05-20-15, 10:48 AM

Taking the field in the Belmont was the right angle, certainly not against 7 horses in a front runner's dream, slop and Preakness

sandyw123 · 05-20-15, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

Taking the field in the Belmont was the right angle, certainly not against 7 horses in a front runner's dream, slop and Preakness

It's getting tempting. Instead, I'll just box some horses I like at the distance with him. If you go to www.chef-de-race.com and scroll to 2015 Belmont contenders, you'll find all kinds of info on the runners towards the bottom of the page. I looked at slope in a chart that measured the level of fatigue the horses showed, was interested in each horses number from the Kentucky Derby. The higher the slope number, the more fatigue. The horses that seemed to come out with the most left in the tank were 1. Keen Ice 2. Frosted 3. Materiality. American Pharaoh's number was considerably higher, making me wonder if he might get caught at such a long distance. What blew my mind was that Tale of Verve'

sandyw123 · 05-20-15, 11:14 PM

Sorry. Accidentally sent that by mistake. Tale of Verve's fatigue slope was low, much lower that Pharaoh's after that impressive run in the Preakness from way back to 2nd. Never saw that one coming.

StackinGreen · 05-21-15, 10:16 AM

I just spoke with Steve Roman yesterday. While I won't violate his trust (not that he might mind regarding his thoughts) I can paraphrase the conversation if you are interested.

sandyw123 · 05-21-15, 10:19 PM

[QUOTE=StackinGreen;24036029]I just spoke with Steve Roman yesterday. While I won't violate his trust (not that he might mind regarding his thoughts) I can paraphrase the conversation if you are interested.[/QUOTEI

I am interested and would appreciate that if he wouldn't mind. Thanks!

trytrytry · 05-22-15, 08:55 AM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

I just spoke with Steve Roman yesterday. While I won't violate his trust (not that he might mind regarding his thoughts) I can paraphrase the conversation if you are interested.

paraphrase away!

StackinGreen · 05-22-15, 09:44 AM

He told me that he is rooting against a TC winner. I can quote him on this, "I have commented elsewhere that I believe this is the fastest group of three-year-olds in a decade up to 9f and the slowest group of three-year-olds in at least two decades at classic distances."

Prior to that, he wasn't very impressed with anyone staying the 10f of the Derby. I think the time and Steve's own PF vindicate this. Note that the Beyer uses too much sync with the known par and that's why they got a good number (105) but the reality is that it just wasn't that fast, nor was the Preakness.

The class (AP) may prevail due to the lack of distance breeding, but Steve believes as I do that Frosted, Mubtaahij and Materiality might have a little more than people realize given the rodeo of the Derby. We'll see.

I'll use AP a bit in my pick 4 and other multis, but mainly I'm going to play against him because it's the right thing to do from historical and value point of view. The ticket will be big if he doesn't come out on top. I took advantage of that with Tonalist last year.

If AP ends up doing it, at least there'll be a new TC champion.

sandyw123 · 05-23-15, 12:00 AM

Thanks! I'm kind of looking at horses that were further back in the Kentucky Derby, but gaining some ground (Materiality and Keen Ice). Maybe Mubtaahij. We know he can run the distance, but does he have enough speed? Frosted could win it if he's kept just a few lengths off the lead. Or maybe AP will win it all. We don't know yet how far he can run, but he didn't blow out the field in the Derby. It's just one of those things, hope for the best but expect the worst. It would be great to see a TC champion.

StackinGreen · 05-23-15, 09:22 AM

I could see at least half the field winning the Belmont.

If you asked me right now, I'd take the field over American Pharoah.

sandyw123 · 05-23-15, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

I could see at least half the field winning the Belmont.

If you asked me right now, I'd take the field over American Pharoah.

Have to say I'm with you there. I'll take the field plus box a few small exotics. Which ones do you see not having a chance? I think I'd eliminate Frammento and War Story, maybe Carpe Diem and Tale of Verve. I think I'm adding MadefromLucky to the list that can win, even though he finished far behind American Pharaoh in much shorter races. He does have AP Indy in his bloodline who's won at a mile and a half. I'm thinking Lookin at Lucky never ran in the Belmont or at that distance in his career. Anyway If American Pharoah gets tired down the stretch, there could be a pack of horses closing in on him. Odds are against a Triple Crown winner this year.

reigle9 · 05-25-15, 03:59 PM

SG, you seem like a smart knowledgeable dude. Very refreshing on the internet.

StackinGreen · 05-26-15, 09:29 AM

Originally posted by reigle9

SG, you seem like a smart knowledgeable dude. Very refreshing on the internet.

Thank you very much for the nice words.

sandyw123 · 05-28-15, 04:04 PM

Originally posted by StackinGreen

Thank you very much for the nice words.

I agree that you know your stuff. Like you said, these horses are slow. The race times have been slower than what we normally see in TC races. I saw past performances of the horses running in the Belmont on downthestretchs.com. The speed figures in both the Derby and Preakness have been ridiculously low. Do you think American Pharaoh's only chance is to be kept back off the pace more? His early speed figures are extremely high, but they drop off drastically late at classic distance. Wonder if he can get the distance.

StackinGreen · 05-28-15, 04:33 PM

Mark my words, he'll need no other horse to run a [fairly] big race to win. His figs, and you can use any source you want, are pretty much the same, that is, topped out. We pretty much know what he can do, just like Chrome last year. There's a chance I could be wrong about that, but just look at his line and then think about 3 races in 5 weeks, and think about it. It's very small. The key is finding who is sitting on the greatest improvement. He will be tiring greatly at the 1/4 and might be galloping at 1/8 ... will his lead at that point be enough?

I'm betting not.

Go watch Afleet Alex's Belmont win. That's what this year's winner will look like, most likely.

By the way, he's the last horse to win the Belmont who actually ran in the Preakness. 5 others went alternate pathways, 4 were Derby horses who skipped the Preakness.

sandyw123 · 05-28-15, 10:27 PM

I have to agree with you. American Pharaoh's speed figures have topped out. Even with those numbers, he had to fight to win the Now the race gets longer, with fresh horses that are bred for distance. I really think American Pharaoh is a great racehorse, but I'd be really surprised if he doesn't meet his match next week. Materiality could win, with a complete race. Maybe Frosted, if he's kept closer to the pace. I'm still looking at MadefromLucky. He's showing improvement and loves the Belmont track. Castellano said after he won the Peter Pan Stakes that he's a Belmont horse, so maybe. Anyway, I'll watch a video of Afleet Alex's Belmont win, been awhile since I saw that. Thanks!