KY Derby 2015

**StackinGreen** · 04-30-15, 11:03 AM

Booth, I love your top 5/6 ... my savers as longshot disruption picks are Bolo and Firing Line. The latter has looked really good training this week too. At this point, I'm still focusing on Dortmund-Mubtaahij-Frosted-American Pharaoh

Can't decide on order just yet but my bets will be mostly with Dortmund and Mubtaahij on top, especially if that price holds.

**THam12** · 04-30-15, 11:23 AM

question for you guys... what type of bets do you play? Do you like tris, exactas, superfectas, straight up on winner, or boxes? Or what?

Thanks for any info!

**survive** · 04-30-15, 01:30 PM

Thanks for the write ups BG. I'm going to the derby for my buddy's bachelor party and i don't know much about ponies so this is much appreciated!

**gummo** · 04-30-15, 01:41 PM

Stanford just scratched.

**BGboothA** · 04-30-15, 01:42 PM

Originally posted by gummo

Stanford just scratched.

Stanford Out, Frammento in...changes nothing for me.

A pace horse just left that could help the overall pace, but I think Ocho and MrZ still make sure its quick

**vegasreaper** · 04-30-15, 10:18 PM

Came in here looking for Money line expresses writeup as I won 2 of 3. Years with his info. Glad ifound yours BOOTH and thanks for all the hard work

**thezzzone** · 05-01-15, 12:35 AM

Leaving Vegas today and heading home , i got:

MUBTAAHIJ - $200 Win Derby 12/1. Also took a flyer $50 bet Mubtaahij to win The Triple Crown. 60/1.
There are many who doubt him and I have read some articles where the authors are trying to apply and compare Beyers saying he has no chance. That may be but i wonder how they calculated the final 200 meters where he put 2 of his hooves in his pockets and walked /strutted home?

What i see is a horse who will easily handle the distance, has no issue at all rating, can run and rate near the lead and has a totally different stretch gear and is push-button. He didn't change leads properly in the stretch and still won by 8 in his last, totally easy. He walked home the last 200 meters and looked fantastic after the race.
Anyone who is in North America and can handicap his competition in his races and compare them to the derby competition is a far better handicapper than I could ever be. For me, I think I've found some value here. We'll see.

**Boner_18** · 05-01-15, 06:56 AM

Originally posted by THam12

question for you guys... what type of bets do you play? Do you like tris, exactas, superfectas, straight up on winner, or boxes? Or what?

Thanks for any info!

I like P3, P4 ending with the derby. Especially if I can key a horse in the any of the under card. For example I thought Palace Malice was an easy key in the Met Mile @ Belmont allowing me to really afford some options in the belmont stakes. FWIW I missed the P4. It's nice to be able to route for a couple horses in such a large field knowing that a fave will likely pay little after the cost of the ticket and the middle-long shots you include will blow up the value of your P3-4.

Course you could be busted out by the time the feature race comes around so I usually take a couple middle priced WPS tix and a EX box or two. I stay away from Tri+ on a field of 20.

**rkelly110** · 05-01-15, 07:29 AM

Originally posted by THam12

question for you guys... what type of bets do you play? Do you like tris, exactas, superfectas, straight up on winner, or boxes? Or what?

Thanks for any info!

I just play to show. Usually 3-4 horses with top earnings. Even the fav will pay good show odds for the derby.

**StackinGreen** · 05-01-15, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by thezzzone

Leaving Vegas today and heading home , i got:

MUBTAAHIJ - $200 Win Derby 12/1. Also took a flyer $50 bet Mubtaahij to win The Triple Crown. 60/1.
There are many who doubt him and I have read some articles where the authors are trying to apply and compare Beyers saying he has no chance. That may be but i wonder how they calculated the final 200 meters where he put 2 of his hooves in his pockets and walked /strutted home?

What i see is a horse who will easily handle the distance, has no issue at all rating, can run and rate near the lead and has a totally different stretch gear and is push-button. He didn't change leads properly in the stretch and still won by 8 in his last, totally easy. He walked home the last 200 meters and looked fantastic after the race.
Anyone who is in North America and can handicap his competition in his races and compare them to the derby competition is a far better handicapper than I could ever be. For me, I think I've found some value here. We'll see.

I'm definitely playing him WPS and underneath in exotics. This is a year where the field is so good, you should be "allowed" to play a lot of horses. While my top pick is Dortmund, I like Firing Line and Bolo as my long shots (if you give me near 15 and 20-1 for them).

Nobody knows what to do with Mubtaahij; I also like getting value on a horse that has run nearly the distance of the Derby (and that of the Preakness) twice.

**StackinGreen** · 05-01-15, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by Boner_18

I like P3, P4 ending with the derby. Especially if I can key a horse in the any of the under card. For example I thought Palace Malice was an easy key in the Met Mile @ Belmont allowing me to really afford some options in the belmont stakes. FWIW I missed the P4. It's nice to be able to route for a couple horses in such a large field knowing that a fave will likely pay little after the cost of the ticket and the middle-long shots you include will blow up the value of your P3-4.

Course you could be busted out by the time the feature race comes around so I usually take a couple middle priced WPS tix and a EX box or two. I stay away from Tri+ on a field of 20.

I've capped today's card and am playing the P4. Have you landed on any singles or tosses for tomorrow's?

**Boner_18** · 05-01-15, 09:21 AM

Nothing for today, didn't have time to cap it. Tomorrow, so far I have 2,4/8/2,6,8,10,12 in the 9th and 10th and Derby. At least that's my preliminary inclination. It looks like Stephanie's Kitten stepped down in class for a quick refresh and I like the move. Always a little worried to use a single... I might add a contender there for the P3 but keep it as a single for the P4. Also, I'm thinking of cutting out Carpte Diem. Still have to really dig in to the 8th for the first leg of the P4.

**BGboothA** · 05-01-15, 09:31 AM

Only playing the Oaks/Derby double, will be playing the pick4 tomorrow. Will post those picks tonight

**DMBcardinal** · 05-01-15, 10:25 AM

Happy Oaks Day! Good luck to all!

**Boner_18** · 05-01-15, 03:21 PM

El Kabir is a confirmed scratch. Doesn't change much for me.

**buddha** · 05-02-15, 08:27 AM

Thanks for your work.

**buddha** · 05-02-15, 09:03 AM

#12 International Star - late scratch

International Star, leading points-holder following the Road to the Kentucky Derby, is a late scratch according to officials in the Churchill Downs media center. The Fusaichi Pegasus colt was headed to the Run for the Roses with three consecutive victories in prep races: the G2 Louisiana Derby, the G2 Risen Star, and the G3 Lecomte.

Following Friday’s scratch of El Kabeir, officials announced that the number 1 starting gate would be left open, with all others shifting inwards. It is not clear how today’s scratch will impact starting positions. International Star was to break from post position 12. Program numbers do not change following a scratch.

This is a developing story. More information will be provided as it becomes available.

**reigle9** · 05-02-15, 09:25 AM

Nooooooooooooooooo. Had him in an open parlay that will now grade for peanuts.

What does that do to a tri box? Entire thing get canceled or just his parts?

**buddha** · 05-02-15, 09:32 AM

Originally posted by reigle9

Nooooooooooooooooo. Had him in an open parlay that will now grade for peanuts.

What does that do to a tri box? Entire thing get canceled or just his parts?

Yeah sucks, sharp play, he coulda hung with these ponies. Not sure enough to say on the Tri-Box....the experts will be here momentarily & they'll know.

**reigle9** · 05-02-15, 03:02 PM

They must be delayed.

**vegasreaper** · 05-02-15, 03:07 PM

Yes waiting anxiously for picks BG

**vegasreaper** · 05-02-15, 03:50 PM

Oh well 2 hours pre race, on my own I guess. Taking AP 20-40-40 and a 5 tribox 3,8,10,18GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE

**vegasreaper** · 05-02-15, 06:16 PM

Not bad 800.00 cash for not knowing horses

**daoilman** · 05-02-15, 06:22 PM

Originally posted by vegasreaper

Not bad 800.00 cash for not knowing horses

I read that, nice hit!

**vegasreaper** · 05-02-15, 06:38 PM

Thanks daoilman

**mikemca** · 05-02-15, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by vegasreaper

Not bad 800.00 cash for not knowing horses

Nice one

being new can be a good thing because you don't over evaluate or use TMI.

still nice hit

**vegasreaper** · 05-02-15, 07:00 PM

Also can reel you in...

**buddha** · 05-02-15, 07:03 PM

Nice Hit Vegas. Great call on Firing Line, I didn't think the 52 year old in the saddle Gary Stevens was gonna be that much up in it with this horse but he had a great trip.

**BGboothA** · 05-02-15, 07:37 PM

Not bad, I hit the Trifecta Twice and the Super...

Missed the first leg of the pick 4 unfortunately...

Here are our sheets for the race...not bad if I may say so myself.

**JayTris07** · 05-02-15, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by vegasreaper

Oh well 2 hours pre race, on my own I guess. Taking AP 20-40-40 and a 5 tribox 3,8,10,18GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE

Very nice Vegas.

**rkelly110** · 05-02-15, 08:10 PM

Nice hit vegas. I won $.80.

Like I said earlier, I bet the highest earning 3-4 horses to show. 2 of them were
in the money. Only had $18 in my account or would've bet/ won more.

**vegasreaper** · 05-03-15, 12:59 AM

I don't understand all that chart stuff BG new to racing I just do derby, preakness, Belmont actually. But why not show that before the race not after just saying you said you were putting picks up last night and kept looking but never saw anything then next I heard from you was that chart after race???? Just asking

**buddha** · 05-03-15, 01:25 AM

Originally posted by vegasreaper

I don't understand all that chart stuff BG new to racing I just do derby, preakness, Belmont actually. But why not show that before the race not after just saying you said you were putting picks up last night and kept looking but never saw anything then next I heard from you was that chart after race???? Just asking

Especially intriguing as the last breakdown we got had Firing Line as a "C" horse beneath Carpe Diem and Bathaahij (whatever) at "B" and "A" respectively, ranked above Firing Line. One might conclude that new info was uncovered that made more Rosy the perception of this horse? #10 Firing Line?

**StackinGreen** · 05-03-15, 09:30 AM

Vegas how is that 800? Good pick on AP but the tri was 18-10-8

**BGboothA** · 05-03-15, 10:31 AM

Originally posted by buddha

Especially intriguing as the last breakdown we got had Firing Line as a "C" horse beneath Carpe Diem and Bathaahij (whatever) at "B" and "A" respectively, ranked above Firing Line. One might conclude that new info was uncovered that made more Rosy the perception of this horse? #10 Firing Line?

Really...LOL.

The Chart stuff has been on our site since Wednesday of this week. I did bet Mubtaahij, but my keys were my A horses. That is the very definition of an A horse.

I didn't win every bet I made on the Derby, but here is what I had...(i know its after, but I was at EMD early yesterday and didn't come on here to post)

($25) 18/2,6,8,15,10/2,6,8,15,10,20 - Winner
($10)6,8/18/2,6,8,15,10,20 Tri - LOSER
($10)6,8/2,6,8,15,10,20/18 - LOSER

($25) 8/2,6,15,10,18/2,6,8,15,10,20 - LOSER
($10) 6,18/8/2,6,15,10,18,20 - LOSER
($10) 6,18/2,6,15,10,18,20/8 - WINNER

Also made a $0.20 Superbet
($48) - 8,18/2,6,8,10,15,18,20/2,6,8,10,15,18,20/2,6,8,10,15,18,20

Now none of them paid as much as I would have hoped...

I also had the same string of Trifecta's with Mubtaahij as the key that all lost.