how would you guys break down this race?

[chaka]

the answer to "why this race"(cheap claimer) is because I have a very small interest in one of the entries,
though its not the distance the trainer wanted for the horse at this time but still have to try to pay the bills and the horse needs a race

several of you are pretty good handicappers and I am hoping to learn how to better analyze the pp's when such little info is available
I realize this is passable race to many here but I am optimistic a few of you will be willing to chime in.

thanks to those that do

[chaka]

Amame, Aroseformineshaft and Mongolian Honey all come out of the same race beaten 12-16 lengths in Mdn 50-40k and now running in 25-20k. Is this really a true drop down for the horse because these horses have not been competitive at the higher levels?

One theory I've read is "class" is defined as the level at which the horse is successful. If this is true, while the claim prices are less than the 40-50k it should not make them automatic favorites at this level because of lack of competitiveness at the 40k

Arose and Amame have 6 races between them with zero winners next out from top 3 in any of their races-Both 0 for 2 at AP
Arose gets top jockey w/blinks though trainer 0 for 8 blinkers. was within 2 lengths 2nd call last out sprint

Mongolian shows two nice works and trainer has good win pct for 2nd start maidens and carrying 10 pounds less than all but 1


Bunratty first Lasix but trainer has 0 for 37 first start and 0 for 23 Debut MCL

Lake Snow first Lasix n shows 12 works with no races but must have trouble with gate 13% win rate in mdn claims but only $0.64 return

Robinsilverbadge 0 for 10 DebutMCL but trainer/jockey 2 for 6 $ 10.03

Better than Diamonds dropping from MSW with leading trainer stidham (whos cooling off from hot start) and 25% jock 3 starts on 3 surfaces Trainer MSWtoMCL 24% Jock/Trainer this year 28%. last route within 3 at 3rd call

Wishful Melody also stidham trainer with 22% 2nd start win pct runs back same level keeps J Graham 25% jock(also cooled off) Jock/trainer hitting 18% only horse that's hit board albeit 3rd....outside post not good win pct


Inside positions have faired better at AP recently

I have no knowledge on first time win pct for any sire/dams

Here's my thoughts
1 Mongolian Honey
2 Wishful Melody
3-4 BetterthanDiamonds/arose



comments, anything I missed I should figure into equation?

[chaka]

with inside post i probably would have BTD at the top

[Heppy10]

I would give Mongolian honey another shot, I think if she breaks better she will have a great shot to win

[TonyP]

I kind of like Betterthandiamonds, wishful melody

[mikemca]

I would look at the pace picture .With this race it looks like whoever gets to the lead is going to get a pretty favorable scenario considering no horse in the race has ever seen the lead at any point of call ever.

Unless one of the 1sters show speed I think it's Wishful Melody wire to wire.

[chaka]

thanks guys. I'm still learning so I appreciate the input. This rookie threw out tonalist based on post position going two turns in the Belmont. I wrongly assumed wide turns would burn too much energy to get ahead. Live and learn.i was on Curlin

Melody is the one I'm part of-only 4% but a guy has to start somewhere..
i dont like the outside 8 spot and they were hoping to find a 6.5-7F race. apparently there was one in the overnight conditions but it didnt get used. I am hoping she doesnt get claimed but I hear not many maidens do. I 'd like to see her be able to run the longer distance.


I did go to Arlington Park for her first race-that place is the bomb! I couldn't believe its kept spotless. Makes Canterbury look like dump.

Pretty cool getting licensed and fingerprinted, stand in the stall during saddling-just an awesome & exciting new experience...Next morning I went over to the barn by myself(buddy stayed in room) and shyly asked if i could see Melody and the assistant trainer says "yeah sure give me a minute and we will bring her out for you" I said "really I'm just 4% owner"- She said "you're still an owner and we need more of you to keep this sport alive"

The groom took some video and pics and actually let me hold the horse.It was awesome but I was pretty nervous though because I had no clue what I would have done if she bolted lol

I happened to get there just prior to the daily viewing of about 20 of the horses in Stidhams stable- saw Ground Transport- who just won a couple 100k races at different tracks. Was able to watch the vet look over the horses and them lightly jog down and back.
There were a couple of monster horses- one filly was bigger than many of the males. Beautiful horse that had a foot injury. It was so odd to see a horse walk on just the tip of her hoof. Wish I knew who the big filly was. She towered over my horse.


My buddy had never been to the races before so I told him just wait until you hear the thunder of the horses coming down the stretch-its awesome..unfortunately I discovered running on polytrack is like running on pillows.
Only mild disappointment of the trip

Shooting for Saratoga this summer

[TonyP]

I like the outside post for Wishful Melody , think that gives her an advantage to get up and clear the field and never look back or get up pressure whoever else wants the lead then take over late in the race.

Thats pretty cool geting to do all the exciting things an owner gets to do.

Good luck

[str]

I wish you nothing but good luck today .

With added speed, the box(outside post) can be where she can be in complete control of the race right out of the gate. But... that all rides on her breaking and being a neck to half a length in front before the far turn. On paper, there is no clear cut speed so that may happen or maybe not. Not to say that she can't win without the lead but 5 1/2 can be weird sometimes. Time will tell.

Hope she has a safe run and comes back well.

[chaka]

melody finished well beaten 8 length 4th pretty dull performance i was hoping for improvement off last race
2 of the 3 top finishers were drop downs from the 50-40k race and paid $71 for exacta. i boxed my top 3 picks and fittingly left off the winner lol my 4th pick.

despite my horses race, this race was good learning experience from handicapping perspective. take even non competitive droppers seriously, especially with vulnerable fav, (which i indicated i had doubts about my own horse)




aroseformineshaft nipped mongolian by a nose charging up late. mongolian galloped out well past everyone

lake snow lead most of the way so all those works i guess are not always a bad sign..

i supposed a drop is on the docket for melody even if its the longer distance next time. wonder if they will try to put her on turf?

[chaka]

well they are shipping my girl to Canterbury to run on the dirt..now its only a short 3 hr drive.

[chaka]

[chaka]

Saratoga Valley pp Thurs 8/7 Saratoga Turf 1M

[chaka]

Wishful Melody Thurs 8/7 pp Canterbury Turf 7.5F

[chaka]

Packers poster

[chaka]

Click Photo or Visit https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b5AmkyHW0mY

[chaka]

DecoratedSoldier

OnTheList

[chaka]

Valley injury

kicked by another horse

[chaka]

saratoga valley dropping again tomorrow at laurel park hopefully she will be competitive

[mrginandtonic]

saratoga valley dropping again tomorrow at laurel park hopefully she will be competitive

Are you the owner of Saratoga Valley?? Looking at the form, I like her chances of breaking maiden. There so many unknowns in this race. Horses going sprint to route, turf to dirt, MSW dropping to claiming, etc. ML is set at 5-1, GL to ya. I think I will put a few $ for her win tomorrow and exacta 2,6 box.

[chaka]

Are you the owner of Saratoga Valley?? Looking at the form, I like her chances of breaking maiden. There so many unknowns in this race. Horses going sprint to route, turf to dirt, MSW dropping to claiming, etc. ML is set at 5-1, GL to ya. I think I will put a few $ for her win tomorrow and exacta 2,6 box.

thx mr G&T. im a 6% share in this one im glad trying off the turf
good luck

[chaka]

stumbled badly out of the break and though i doubted the manager saying she hit her nose into the ground..a closer look at the reply shows she in fact did ..at least she didnt quit and made up dozen lengths and got to 3rd despite small field. another furlong and she wouldve got past the place horse but no chance catching the winner

sounds like running same level same distance next out
race on you tube if u search race 3 laurel park sept 18

[chaka]

Saratoga valley entered for sat oct 4 at laurel again mile and 1/16 on dirt 16k claimer

With a Clean break she could possibly get this one.

[cutchemist42]

Good luck!

[chaka]

thanks chemist
laurel,didnt bring race back so entered sat at delaware but potential weather expected may scratch

[str]

thanks chemist
laurel,didnt bring race back so entered sat at delaware but potential weather expected may scratch

Why would they want to scratch if it came off the turf ?

[Jeffie]

thanks chemist
laurel,didnt bring race back so entered sat at delaware but potential weather expected may scratch

Good luck Chaka, Going to the track to see your horse compete is the most exciting thing ever.
Whats even better is being able to go in that winners circle!

[chaka]

Why would they want to scratch if it came off the turf ?

they are entering main track only and want it to rain so it gets moved to dirt

[chaka]

Good luck Chaka, Going to the track to see your horse compete is the most exciting thing ever.
Whats even better is being able to go in that winners circle!

thanks jeffie. i love the races
ive seen one race live as an owner, the very first race as owner ,but now they are running too far away to attend but one day i will get to the circle when i am there and it will be greatest thing ever

. the one day i was there it was an awesome experience. Arlington Park is the bomb

after roughly 14 months into syndicate partnerships :
one 2 yr old filly, the second burst, is recovering from a chip removal and couple months from resuming training
one low level claimer ,wishful melody, was given away after 4 declining performances and chronic issues
,saratoga valley a 3yr ny bred filly who hasnt show anything at levels she wasnt qualified to be in has 4 starts w/ 1 show and

my yearling No Lie is a few months from starting to train for Eclipse Thoroughbreds under wayne catalano.
all small % investments 4-6% range

while waiting for horses to get over nagging injuries i tried the claim game with DAS but no wins there yet either
couple seconds, a third and couple fifths. with Moe Man and Indy Tune- both won race we claimed them from and both have won since claimed away

waiting for latest claim NF's Destiny to run anytime now( ran 2nd in race we claimed)

hard to believe a guy can invest in a horse by replying via text now lol but thats how DAS does it.


thanks to STR and all the guys in the horse forums - i've learned a ton from you all this past year

[chaka]

Down to 6 horse field after race 4 pulled off turf to a sloppy Delaware main track. Hopefully she's a mudder lol

[chaka]

Another well beaten third for saratoga
She had a good break and first half but had nothing to keep up with leaders as they pulled away
Think she needs another class drop

[chaka]

Dropping down to 8k maiden end of October

[str]

Dropping down to 8k maiden end of October

Glad to hear that.

Oct. 29th and Nov. 13th at Laurel.

These days they are writing both Maiden 8-7 and Maiden 12.5-10.5 going long on the same day.

The idea is that one will fill by being able to have trainers "if" their horses from one race to another. You never know but for both to fill, that would be incredible. Seen stranger things though.

What that means is they enter for md. 8 but "if" that race does not go, ( fill ) , they can "if" enter to the other race. Key here is to enter EARLY , around 9-9:30 AM. The racing office will start to push the lesser of the 2 fields over to the other race around 10:30 or 11 AM. Like if one race has 6 entries and the other has 4 entries, they start getting on the phone and persuading trainers to move the entry over to the other race. Because it will probably be the 1st, 2nd or last race, they want at least 8 or 9 horses for the Daily double or 9 or 10 for the Super of they can get it. If they get less, like 7 or 8, it will probably be the 3rd or 4th race. A lot of this depends on the size of the other fields that the secretary has to deal with.

For the most part the horses will be the same BUT typically there will be one or two horses that do not want to drop down to 8K. So... the 12.5 might be tougher than the 8k would be. Not by much, but she needs any help she can get.

Hopefully they enter for the bottom number and get the 4 lbs. off from 122 to 118 lbs. Again, help her all they can right?

[chaka]

Last race she carried 111 lbs so I am guessing they will try the apprentice again. I'll take all the help she can get

you predicted long ago 8-10k was where she should be running. She took the long route to get there lol

Baby steps- as much as I want to be there when the winners circle finally calls, getting that first "W" will mean a lot -even at this lower level

[chaka]

My Drawing Away Stable horse NF's Destiny running 6f in race 6 @ belmont as a coupled entry.... Gelding likes to be out front from pp's though have not seen any races