Mixed Emotions About The Derby

**CaptainBodgit** · 05-03-14, 05:48 PM

i was impressed as a fan but disappointed as gambler ..

**MoneylineExpress** · 05-03-14, 05:57 PM

Hit the turn for home and it was all but over. California Chrome got a great trip and is the most talented horse, so it was an easy win. One of the chalkiest years I can remember for oaks and derby day.

**str** · 05-03-14, 07:54 PM

I want to see the charts before I fully comment but I was watching closers and the timer. After a 1/4 I was ok with things but after a 1/2 in 47 and change I knew my plays were done so I watched the TV and the leaders. CC was sitting 3rd to a duel with his right eye clear. That continued until I saw 3/4s in 111 and change and too me,the race was over as to who was going to win. He got a very clean trip and was the best horse going in with front running favoring fractions. That equals winner more times than not.

Make no mistake, good horses can certainly create good , clean right eye trips for themselves and I am sure this horse did that. But if they had rattled off 45 and change or 46 and a couple it would have been a different story I promise you.

Pace ALWAYS has and always will make the race in races like these so the kind front end fractions worked well today for CC.

And please make no mistake, the fact that I chose a bunch of closers and the pace did not work out has no bearing whatsoever on any opinion of the winner. He won the friggin Derby for Christs sake, but.. he was able to because of the clean trip that he had a hand in getting because of his ability but slower than normal fractions that allowed him to shine. They finished up rather slowly which is a cause to wonder as well. Charts are not up yet which is unreal too me but the chart caller will have them up by tomorrow morning and I will recap what I see them.

Do be impressed but a reserved impressed Rob. A lot of things went his way today, some of which he had a hand in, and some of which he is thankful for.

Hope that helps somewhat.

**robmpink** · 05-03-14, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by str

I want to see the charts before I fully comment but I was watching closers and the timer. After a 1/4 I was ok with things but after a 1/2 in 47 and change I knew my plays were done so I watched the TV and the leaders. CC was sitting 3rd to a duel with his right eye clear. That continued until I saw 3/4s in 111 and change and too me,the race was over as to who was going to win. He got a very clean trip and was the best horse going in with front running favoring fractions. That equals winner more times than not.

Make no mistake, good horses can certainly create good , clean right eye trips for themselves and I am sure this horse did that. But if they had rattled off 45 and change or 46 and a couple it would have been a different story I promise you.

Pace ALWAYS has and always will make the race in races like these so the kind front end fractions worked well today for CC.

And please make no mistake, the fact that I chose a bunch of closers and the pace did not work out has no bearing whatsoever on any opinion of the winner. He won the friggin Derby for Christs sake, but.. he was able to because of the clean trip that he had a hand in getting because of his ability but slower than normal fractions that allowed him to shine. They finished up rather slowly which is a cause to wonder as well. Charts are not up yet which is unreal too me but the chart caller will have them up by tomorrow morning and I will recap what I see them.

Do be impressed but a reserved impressed Rob. A lot of things went his way today, some of which he had a hand in, and some of which he is thankful for.

Hope that helps somewhat.

Thanks for the reply, STR!

**str** · 05-03-14, 08:09 PM

Originally posted by robmpink

Thanks for the reply, STR!

It's my pleasure Rob.

You da man !

**unusialsusp5** · 05-04-14, 10:54 AM

don't you suspect str that the sport absolutely needs a triple crown winner and everyone associated with sport wants and needs it to happen. yes this horse is better than the others and it has to happen this year to save racing from declining even more than it has. i'm just saying that it doesn't seem like the others actually went after him with any great zeal or effort. maybe none of them are good enough or maybe they know what a triple crown winner would mean to the sport. will be shocked if this horse fails to win the triple crown as difficult as that is to pull off. people will come out in droves if he wins preakness for the belmont and later in the season if he is a triple crown winner giving the sport the major boost it needs.

**chaka** · 05-04-14, 02:13 PM

...

**str** · 05-04-14, 02:48 PM

Originally posted by unusialsusp5

don't you suspect str that the sport absolutely needs a triple crown winner and everyone associated with sport wants and needs it to happen. yes this horse is better than the others and it has to happen this year to save racing from declining even more than it has. i'm just saying that it doesn't seem like the others actually went after him with any great zeal or effort. maybe none of them are good enough or maybe they know what a triple crown winner would mean to the sport. will be shocked if this horse fails to win the triple crown as difficult as that is to pull off. people will come out in droves if he wins preakness for the belmont and later in the season if he is a triple crown winner giving the sport the major boost it needs.

Well , you are absolutely right about the sport needing a triple crown shot in the arm. It would be great for the sport. But don't think for a minute that the other riders and trainers are not trying to beat him. They will try him in the Preakness and a whole new wave will try in the Belmont.

I remember Birdstone's owner actually apologizing for beating Smarty Jones in the Belmont. Everyone wanted to see him win for the sport as well as the horse but the other riders and trainers owe it , if not to the bettors that bet on them, and if not to themselves, then to the horse they ride or train, to give every effort possible. And almost to a person, that is what they would say, I am sure.

While racing is a fraternity and everyone bands together when a disaster strikes like the tornado that hit Churchill or Garden State burning down or when a single barn burns down and a trainer or two is put out of business. When a rider gets hurt, or a trainers child is injured or killed, we all would band together to help out. But the spirit of the game has a fierce competition within it, that many never fully get the chance to see but it is alive and well .

I remember being so upset driving home after the last race one night from Pimlico and I come up on the trainer that had not only claimed my horse in the last race but beat me a nose with another horse of his in the same race. We had a bit of a rivalry going on at the time claiming back and forth. Quite frankly, I hated him at the time. There he is on the side of the road in a rough part of Balt. I stopped, not sure why, when I did. Flat tire and no jack. I had a jack, and changed the tire for him. He was an older guy and I was young. All that stuff went out the window because he was a backside guy. So that's kind of how it works.

As for the track owners putting pressure on you possibly? They would not have the balls to do so for fear of being caught and they would have to get to every trainer and rider in the race . As much as trainers and riders detest most track management, that would never be considered IMO.

**chaka** · 05-04-14, 06:31 PM

Originally posted by str

I want to see the charts before I fully comment but I was watching closers and the timer. After a 1/4 I was ok with things but after a 1/2 in 47 and change I knew my plays were done so I watched the TV and the leaders. CC was sitting 3rd to a duel with his right eye clear. That continued until I saw 3/4s in 111 and change and too me,the race was over as to who was going to win. He got a very clean trip and was the best horse going in with front running favoring fractions. That equals winner more times than not.

Make no mistake, good horses can certainly create good , clean right eye trips for themselves and I am sure this horse did that. But if they had rattled off 45 and change or 46 and a couple it would have been a different story I promise you.

Pace ALWAYS has and always will make the race in races like these so the kind front end fractions worked well today for CC.

And please make no mistake, the fact that I chose a bunch of closers and the pace did not work out has no bearing whatsoever on any opinion of the winner. He won the friggin Derby for Christs sake, but.. he was able to because of the clean trip that he had a hand in getting because of his ability but slower than normal fractions that allowed him to shine. They finished up rather slowly which is a cause to wonder as well. Charts are not up yet which is unreal too me but the chart caller will have them up by tomorrow morning and I will recap what I see them.

Do be impressed but a reserved impressed Rob. A lot of things went his way today, some of which he had a hand in, and some of which he is thankful for.

Hope that helps somewhat.

i knew my pick was toast the minute i heard it out of hammerin hanks mouth as his winner
hank ". intense holiday"

me : "shit"
lol

**Swift Thinking** · 05-04-14, 06:38 PM

Chrome got the trip of a lifetime
My horse made a nice middle move but might be better off as a Miler
Wise Dan held on by skin of his teeth
Good day overall but mostly chalky and no balloons

Midnight Lucky is a BEAST . That horse is going to be best horse in country no time soon

**sandyw123** · 05-05-14, 12:14 AM

I just now looked at the Derby Charts. It was a great closing effort by Commanding Curve heading in to the stretch from 9th to 2nd, though it wasn't enough. I saw that he's headed to the Preakness. Danza seemed to run out of gas at the very end, but put up a good fight. I guess he's not running in the Preakness, kind of surprised about that. Ride on Curlin and Wicked Strong looked like Belmont contenders to me (didn't lose ground and looked to need a little more distance). I saw that Wicked Strong is skipping the Preakness, but Ride on Curlin will be in it. Hoping there won't be a jockey switch now from Calvin Borel to Mike Smith.

**trytrytry** · 05-05-14, 12:01 PM

I was at churchill downs WEd through Satruday. there was one mid pack closer and no deep closers in 4 days on dirt that won. it was an incredible track bias. (interesting Tuesday at the track the rail and speed was miserable) but then the rain and wetness dried out.

Several hoses actually rerallied on the rail to win as well. for the most part if you were not in top 3 (sprints and routes) you had no shot past 4 days. which made handicapping super easy $$$

so MUCH respect to the closers in the Derby that did pass the speed horses and picked up a share of the pot..

Belmont will be most interesting

Chrome will win Preakness by a couple lenghts unless his race is over at the start with a bad break of course.

**nvrlose37** · 05-05-14, 03:08 PM

Originally posted by sandyw123

I just now looked at the Derby Charts. It was a great closing effort by Commanding Curve heading in to the stretch from 9th to 2nd, though it wasn't enough. I saw that he's headed to the Preakness. Danza seemed to run out of gas at the very end, but put up a good fight. I guess he's not running in the Preakness, kind of surprised about that. Ride on Curlin and Wicked Strong looked like Belmont contenders to me (didn't lose ground and looked to need a little more distance). I saw that Wicked Strong is skipping the Preakness, but Ride on Curlin will be in it. Hoping there won't be a jockey switch now from Calvin Borel to Mike Smith.

This is a classic viewers mistake to think a closer in the Derby can automatically place in the Belmont because of the extra distance. Recent closers in the Belmont like MTB, Ice box, Animal Kingdom, Dullahan failed to do anything with that extra distance.

Wicked Strong and Commanding Curve would likely fall into that category. I would give Ride On Curlin a game shot out of that category though based on pedigree alone (already seen a Curlin colt win the race last year)

RoC was way too far behind in the Derby too, could not run into a 1:11 pace like that.

**TonyP** · 05-05-14, 05:21 PM

can someone look at the charts to see if CC ever had a bad break on a speed favoring highway and how many lengths out of it he was at start then were did he finish?

**trytrytry** · 05-05-14, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by TonyP

can someone look at the charts to see if CC ever had a bad break on a speed favoring highway and how many lengths out of it he was at start then were did he finish?

not 100% sure what you are looking for but you can watch all of his races and sort it out if you like

5. California Chrome
Pedigree: Lucky Pulpit/Love The Chase (Not For Love)
Dosage: 3.40
TrueNicks Grade: B+
Jockey: Victor Espinoza
Trainer: Art Sherman
Past Performances
Best Beyer/BRIS: 108/106

Race Replays:
4/5/14 Santa Anita Derby (G1)
3/8/14 San Felipe S. (G2)
1/25/14 California Cup Derby (R)
12/22/13 King Glorious S. (R)
11/1/13 Golden State Juvenile S. (R)
9/4/13 Del Mar Futurity S. (G1)
7/31/13 Graduation S. (R)
6/15/13 Procter Memorial S.
5/17/13 BHP MSW
4/26/13 BHP MSW

**TonyP** · 05-05-14, 06:22 PM

He never realy got that far back. IT looks like when he is asked to go he takes off.

**unusialsusp5** · 05-05-14, 10:06 PM

yes, str the triple crown seems to be a major focal point to renew interest in horse racing and to increase wagering handles. having this horse fail in the belmont is not what the horse race industry would want. it looks like the horse is either good enough or the competition is weak to get it done. to say trainers won't try isn't accurate but many may think about saving their horse for the july-nov races. you will see a short field for the belmont if CC wins the preakness.