preakness saturday

**BGboothA** · 05-14-13, 09:09 AM

The only problem is that Departing may be the 2nd choice and may not provide the value I am looking for either.

Goldencents is one I will be looking at, the Derby was a horrible run and doesn't represent this horse at all. Since he is coming back to the preakness we can rule out any injury.

Governer Charlie should give the field a nice pace to run at and Goldencents may get first stab at the pace.

**DennisT** · 05-14-13, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by BGboothA

The only problem is that Departing may be the 2nd choice and may not provide the value I am looking for either.

Goldencents is one I will be looking at, the Derby was a horrible run and doesn't represent this horse at all. Since he is coming back to the preakness we can rule out any injury.

Governer Charlie should give the field a nice pace to run at and Goldencents may get first stab at the pace.

Maybe the value is a Tri Box ORB DEPARTING and GOLDENSENSE?

**Jotoole0821** · 05-14-13, 11:29 AM

GC had 3 career starts...i really cant see this horse hitting the board at all

**nvrlose37** · 05-14-13, 12:43 PM

Is Departing a front runner or would he be where Orb is near the back? I know there is going to be plenty of speed in this one and that probably will not help front runners.

Even if Orb is to win, the race can pay nicely. Afleet Alex in 05 was the fave and a $700 trifecta paid out, 2nd choice coming in third.

**mikemca** · 05-14-13, 01:05 PM

I think Departing is a Grade 2 horse at best right now.He beat 20-1+ For Dubai and Siete de Oros who already proved he wasn't on Vyjack's level and he beat them by rallying wide from off the pace on a track that favored off the pace runners rallying wide.On top of that he is likely only going to be 4 or 5-1.It also says something that Stall took him to Hawthorne instead of running in the Derby.That being said that is just my visual opinion, all the #s information comes out tomorrow and maybe his figs will change my opinion but I doubt it.

I'm in the camp that likes Will Take Charge but disagree that the majority of the public will have any clue what kind of trip he had in the Derby.It seems to me it is all about beyer numbers and finish position to the 3 time a year bettor.Will Take Charge 12 or 15-1 vs Departing 4 or 5-1 is no contest imo.

Mylute,Itsmyluckyday, and Goldencents are the others I have to figure out what to do with but if you have Orb on top you better put together an efficient bet if you want to make money.Like Orb over WTC cold exacta or Orb over WTC over the other 3 TRI.

**mikemca** · 05-14-13, 01:15 PM

I don't play there anymore but I read that Bovada has the Preakness field over/under at 11 1/2 and under looks like free money.

**mrginandtonic** · 05-14-13, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by nvrlose37

Is Departing a front runner or would he be where Orb is near the back? I know there is going to be plenty of speed in this one and that probably will not help front runners.

Even if Orb is to win, the race can pay nicely. Afleet Alex in 05 was the fave and a $700 trifecta paid out, 2nd choice coming in third.

Afleet Alex wasn't a heavy favorite which I think Orb will be heavily favored. Also, looks like it will be small field, so I doubt we will get that kind of trifecta payout if Orb wins. if Orb comes in third, with two long shots on top; then we have a different story. Like the Belmont in 1999, with Charismatic ( $2 tri paid over $5K).

**Rbyrne** · 05-14-13, 01:53 PM

Orb wins so stop the bs....a winner is a winner. Fuk all this value talk cuz there's no value in a 10-1 horse that finishes 5th or 6th

**nvrlose37** · 05-14-13, 02:01 PM

Originally posted by mrginandtonic

Afleet Alex wasn't a heavy favorite which I think Orb will be heavily favored. Also, looks like it will be small field, so I doubt we will get that kind of trifecta payout if Orb wins. if Orb comes in third, with two long shots on top; then we have a different story. Like the Belmont in 1999, with Charismatic ( $2 tri paid over $5K).

Belmont always has insane prices in Triple Crown opportunities. Only one that didnt pay well was Funny Cide's six horse field year.

**DennisT** · 05-14-13, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by Rbyrne

Orb wins so stop the bs....a winner is a winner. Fuk all this value talk cuz there's no value in a 10-1 horse that finishes 5th or 6th

I don,t believe Orb winning is the issue.We are trying to find value plays under him. Thoughts?

**Jotoole0821** · 05-14-13, 03:19 PM

you could argue that stall sent him to hawthrone because he wanted the money departing will get. he run in the LA derby wasnt the greatest (watching it again as we speak) but he was right there. if its another blistering pace, i think departing can sit and pounce like in the illinois derby.

also, there are 9 confirmed starters...why is bovada having it at 11.5???

**DennisT** · 05-14-13, 03:33 PM

Giving serious consideration to Departing in this race. Goldensense was eased,extremely smart move

by Kevin. This appears logical Tri box.

**pulledclear** · 05-14-13, 03:35 PM

Departing WONT hit the board and Orb will be 7-5 or better.

**pulledclear** · 05-14-13, 03:36 PM

Sorry meant 7-5 or LESS.

**DennisT** · 05-14-13, 04:17 PM

I will stand my Tri box and let the chips fall where they may. Luck to all that wager!!

**mikemca** · 05-14-13, 04:36 PM

Originally posted by Jotoole0821

you could argue that stall sent him to hawthrone because he wanted the money departing will get. he run in the LA derby wasnt the greatest (watching it again as we speak) but he was right there. if its another blistering pace, i think departing can sit and pounce like in the illinois derby.

also, there are 9 confirmed starters...why is bovada having it at 11.5???

Yeah he sent him because he knew he wasn't going to threaten in Kentucky so might as well get the check.You could be right though a few other people I respect seem to think he has a shot also.I just disagree because I'm very skeptical of the Illinois Derby and how he won it but it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong.

Don't know why Bovada has that line but I read it today.If its still up it has to have absurd juice by now.I guess its not impossible a few more local horses enter just to run.

**Jotoole0821** · 05-15-13, 01:36 PM

Hes a big powerful horse. Hes fresh. I bet creative cause.last year like an idiot so im hoping BH has departing relaxed and use that turn of foot he has

**skw12354** · 05-15-13, 04:36 PM

After looking at workouts, I might go with Orb, Governor Charlie, It's My Lucky Day, and Indy Charge in a box. Yet Goldencents didn't have a workout, so it's hard to get an idea about how well he likes the track. I'm really not sure about using the workouts this week as criteria. It's just something new for me.

**homerbush** · 05-15-13, 04:59 PM

I think Orb loses. No such thing as a sure thing remember 1-5 F. Pegasus losing to red bullet or RIP Barbaro. None of these horses seem heads and shoulders above anybody else. Sorry orb's derby run did not impress me everybody else can drink the kook aid and settle for 2-5 or 1-2.

**mikemca** · 05-15-13, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by homerbush

I think Orb loses. No such thing as a sure thing remember 1-5 F. Pegasus losing to red bullet or RIP Barbaro. None of these horses seem heads and shoulders above anybody else. Sorry orb's derby run did not impress me everybody else can drink the kook aid and settle for 2-5 or 1-2.

You are far from the minority on this.There is a lot of history Orb will have to buck in order to win the Preakness.

**JBEX** · 05-15-13, 09:12 PM

cumulative lengths behind quarter mile to stretch call (fewest) in Derby and running
in the Preakness

14 ox
20 ni

considering fast pace could be meaningful

**Jotoole0821** · 05-15-13, 09:53 PM

Preakness Stakes
Purse: $1 million; 1 3/16 miles; Grade 1

PP, Horse, Trainer, Jockey, Odds
1. Orb, Shug McGaughey, Joel Rosario, 1-1
2. Goldencents, Doug O’Neill, Kevin Krigger, 5-1
3. Titletown Five, D. Wayne Lukas, Julien Leparoux, 20-1
4. Departing, Al Stall Jr., Brian Hernandez Jr., 6-1
5. Mylute, Tom Amoss, Rosie Napravnik, 10-1
6. Oxbow, D. Wayne Lukas, Gary Stevens, 15-1
7. Will Take Charge, D. Wayne Lukas, Mike Smith, 10-1
8. Govenor Charlie, Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia, 15-1
9. Itsmyluckyday, Eddie Plesa Jr., John Velazquez, 10-1

**skw12354** · 05-15-13, 09:56 PM

After looking at the past performances with post positions, I have to change my picks. I think I'll box Orb, Mylute, Departing, and Governor Charlie. It's not looking like the others can be there when the dust clears. If neither Revolutionary and Normandy Invasion had been in the Kentucky Derby, Mylute would have finished 3rd. Neither of them are in this race. Departing is a well rested horse with speed and running next to Mylute (who he finished right behind in a previous race). Governor Charlie is also well rested, and his speed has increased with each race. He's also coming off a fast 1:10 6 furlong workout. And there always seems to be 1 longshot horse in the mix. Any thoughts?

**BGboothA** · 05-15-13, 11:41 PM

My first real glance at the PP's.

Toss'em
WillTakeCharge
Titletown Five

I originally really liked Goldencents but the more I look at things the more I am really skeptical of this one. Throw out his Derby run and he should be in the mix, but if you are take into account the horrible run in the Derby and the complete lack of a workout. I just don't see how he comes out swinging.

**floridagolfer** · 05-16-13, 06:09 AM

I'll have about $100 in trifectas and Orb won't be on top in any of them. The last half-mile of the Derby was atrociously slow and that won't convince me to play an even-money favorite.

**nvrlose37** · 05-16-13, 10:49 AM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

I'll have about $100 in trifectas and Orb won't be on top in any of them. The last half-mile of the Derby was atrociously slow and that won't convince me to play an even-money favorite.

That was after blistering 6F fractions, what the hell did you expect in the slop?

**JBEX** · 05-16-13, 09:35 PM

2013 PREAKNESS BOTTOM LINE With a relatively small field and a few horses with some early speed this year’s Preakness figures to be truly run, with post position and running style not major factors. Govenor Charlie and Departing may take enough money to make the race bettable—the only three we would use are Orb, Itsmyluckyday, and Mylute. Obviously we would use Orb more heavily

Thorograph .. Downloaded Preakness as it's the free race of the week

**pulledclear** · 05-16-13, 09:38 PM

Departing will draw a lot of SUCKER money.

**JBEX** · 05-16-13, 09:55 PM

Thought Itsmyluckyday looked by far the best of the rest on the Thorograph Sheets (besides Orb)

**harthebar** · 05-16-13, 10:01 PM

I expect goldenscents to lay off the pace about two lengths . when he first started to race , he was very hard to rate, but he has him rating real nice, I think he bounces back from the derby and makes his move like the santa anita derby , winning by 2 1/2 with orb and mylute coming ............lol why not.

Originally posted by BGboothA

The only problem is that Departing may be the 2nd choice and may not provide the value I am looking for either.

Goldencents is one I will be looking at, the Derby was a horrible run and doesn't represent this horse at all. Since he is coming back to the preakness we can rule out any injury.

Governer Charlie should give the field a nice pace to run at and Goldencents may get first stab at the pace.

Originally posted by mikemca

Yeah he sent him because he knew he wasn't going to threaten in Kentucky so might as well get the check.You could be right though a few other people I respect seem to think he has a shot also.I just disagree because I'm very skeptical of the Illinois Derby and how he won it but it wouldn't be the first time I was wrong.

Don't know why Bovada has that line but I read it today.If its still up it has to have absurd juice by now.I guess its not impossible a few more local horses enter just to run.

**pulledclear** · 05-16-13, 11:26 PM

Looking at the undercard for both days. WOW!!!!! What incredible fields. There are going to be some MONSTER payouts over the next 2 days at PIM. AVOID THE CHALK!!!! Go long. Trust me.

**BGboothA** · 05-17-13, 12:11 AM

Originally posted by pulledclear

Looking at the undercard for both days. WOW!!!!! What incredible fields. There are going to be some MONSTER payouts over the next 2 days at PIM. AVOID THE CHALK!!!! Go long. Trust me.

I agree! I am putting together some tickets for tomorrow, and I see some prices coming hopefully.

**pulledclear** · 05-17-13, 12:50 AM

Absolutely!!!!

**mrginandtonic** · 05-17-13, 12:52 AM

Originally posted by BGboothA

I agree! I am putting together some tickets for tomorrow, and I see some prices coming hopefully.

Will you guys be sharing your picks??