yall knew i was gonna make a thread about this...just getting it warmed up since we're still days away. i will update as soon as i learn the field and post positions. 
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ALSO!!! whoever johnny v picks for the derby...is your derby winner. im sorry but the field is really weak this year and whoever johnny rides will winComment -
He's out for 3 weeks he said. Orb or verrazano will win the derbyComment -
Wouldn't bank on that.Think he would be wise to ride Pletcher no matter what he thinks of who is better between Verrazano and Orb.You could argue Castellano's decision is more meaningful between Revolutionary and Normandy Invasion.Regardless though it's far to early to make solid opinions.What if Johnny V rides Orb and he draws 20 or he picks Verrazano and he draws 1.Comment -
i just think whoever he rides will win. both horses are extremely talented but i feel more confident if the jock has a good feel with the horse. i read rosario will ride orb if johnny rides verrazano...which would be interesting since rosario is riding high right nowComment -
field for the blue grass
1 Dynamic Sky, J. Rosario, 10-1
2 My Name is Michael, S. Bridgmohan, 15-1
3 Undrafted, C. Nakatani, 10-1
4 Java’s War, J. Leparoux, 4-1
5 Palace Malice, G. Gomez, 8-1
6 Channel Isle, J. Rocco Jr., 30-1
7 Uncaptured, M. Mena, 7-2
8 Charming Kitten, J. Bravo, 10-1
9 Tesseron, A. Garcia, 50-1
10 Footbridge, C. Lanerie, 20-1
11 Balance the Books, J. Castellano, 15-1
12 West Hills Giant, J. Espinoza, 20-1
13 Rydilluc, E. Prado, 4-1
14 Fear the Kitten, R. Napravnik, 30-1
15(ae) Divine Ambition, J. Graham, 50-1
great looking field!!!Comment -
also The Arkansas Derby field from the rail out, with riders: Carve, Ricardo Santana Jr.; War Academy; Divine Ambition, Brian Hernandez Jr.; Falling Sky; Den’s Legacy, Robby Albarado; Heaven’s Runway, Israel Ocampo; Texas Bling, Calvin Borel; Frac Daddy, Victor Lebron; Overanalyze; OxbowComment -
Looks like Rydilluc in the Blue Grass and War Academy in the Arkansas Derby to me.Price horses to put underneath would be Undrafted 10-1 in Blue Grass and Falling Sky 10-1 in Arkansas.
Rydilluc may be the best turf/poly 3 year old of his class if he handles poly like he does turf.Think he can dominate the 3 yr old turf stakes like Silver Max did last year.Comment -
Jockey Javier Castellano has committed to ride Fox Hill Farms' Wood Memorial (gr. I) runner-up Normandy Invasion in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands (gr. I), leaving Louisiana Derby (gr. II) winner Revolutionary open, agent Matt Muzikar confirmed April 11.
Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...#ixzz2QAhIiHrQ
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mikemca,,,,what your opinion on West Hills Giant, and Uncaptured in the Blue Grass
Oxbow and Overanalyze in the Ark Derby
mike enjoy reading your comments always makes me go back to the pp and take a better look and see what I missed or didnt see before, agree or diagree with your pics you make me look !! in another light thanks and good luckComment -
the blue grass is going to be a fun race to watch and bet. im expecting bomber city! as for the arkansas...a little challenge to handicap but im leaning oxbow as of right nowComment -
I'm against Uncaptured as the favorite.He gained a big reputation by beating a bunch of mediocre fields.His 30 points likely puts him on the bubble for the Derby even if he misses the board Saturday.I think it would be unwise to run him in the Derby unless he proves me wrong and runs a huge improvement in the Blue Grass.He would probably be a big favorite in Canada's triple crown the Queen's Plate,Prince Of Wales, and Breeder's Stakes .
I'm a fan of West Hills Giant.Would be more bullish on him in this spot if not for the respiratory infection he got that caused him to miss the Wood.Because of that it's hard to say how he is doing but if I knew he was going to fire his best I would make him a contender.As it is I'll use him with Rydilluc but wouldn't be surprised if he spits the bit halfway.
Oxbow is the other one I would use in Arkansas with Falling Sky but I think War Academy is sitting on a big one.May just bet War Academy to win depending on price and/or box those 3 in Exacta.Definitely against Overanalyze .If it weren't Pletcher/Repole/Bejarano this horse would be 20-1.If he somehow wins I wouldn't be mad at all because at his likely price he is a big underlay.
Yeah I thought he ran great as a two year old and was excited when C Brown said he was giving him a chance to make the Derby.I just can't find any excuse for his Spiral effort and if they think it was because he didn't handle the Turfway surface well Keeneland is just about the same surface.I wouldn't be that surprised if he runs well but I just can't back him until he shows it was a fluke.Comment -
thanks for replyingComment -
NP and wanted to say thx for the kind words in my earlier post but got into my analysis and forgot.
Another thing about Uncaptured is that Tesseron isn't much behind him in ability and one is 7-2 and the other 50-1.If you like Uncaptured you have to love Tesseron.50-1 is a big price on a horse that was just favored vs Black Onyx and Crop report.Comment -
Blue Grass
13 Rydilluc
1 Dynamic Sky
7 Uncaptured
3 Undrafted
I really like Rydilluc and Dynamic Sky here, I think they can come strong here, Undrafted also seems to be pointing in the right direction.
Arkansas
6 Heaven's Runway
5 Den's Legacy
4 Falling sky
10 Oxbow
I think Oxbow stretches out and loses this race down the stretch to Heaven's Runway or Den's Legacy. I don't see the hype for War ACademy but I look forward to see this.
HBD's BlueGrass and Arkansas SheetsComment -
No love for Java's War in the BG? You guys must've not see him close in TB against Verrazano. Horse is gonna close like a shot in this one at least placing. My name is Michael is getting blinkers too so I always like to pick horses first time wearing them.Comment -
Rimmo,
Thanks for the kind words.....Just a little history on the site and the sheets. The sheets are the product of a computer program created by myself and two other horse guys. I use the sheets quite a bit and with a great deal of success. However, I still put in my own $0.02 when it comes to my money. Just like any good sheets, I never would recommend blindly following anything without putting your own thought into it.
Think about it this way....one of my buddy's who helped create the site and the formula's behind the sheets love's JAVA's WAR today. The other one just sent me a ticket and he is playing our picks in a keyed trifecta using Palice Malice keyed with the other 3 and Rydullic.
Arletta,
I can't discount Undrafted, our sheets have pulled some craziness and he is ramping up and should improve upon his last couple of numbers (indicated by the ++ on the bottom section). Undrafted could easily be in there, I am just not sure the pace model sets up for him very well. In my Personal opinion.
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Seems virtually impossible to win a race on the front end this Keenland meeting.Comment -
I guess I have to eat crow on Overanalyze.Ran like 7-2 was a gift ,I just can't figure Pletcher.Comment -
Nah you won't see him on dirt , he will go back to turf with eyes on the 3 year old turf GI's and think having to gun for the lead from post 13 was his downfall.
As for Arkansas that was some BS with War Academy.They backed him out of the gate then let him run anyway and he pulls up halfway through.Comment
