Santa Anita/Thoro-Graph Race of the Week 1/19/2013

[daoilman]

This week the Thoro-Graph race of the week is the PALOS VERDES S. Grade II (6f).

The write up is very interesting in that it highlights an unlikely candidate for the win.
I would be interested in opinions with regards towards this race.

Can either Apriority or Justin Phillip get the win? Are we looking at a cold, juicy exacta?

[BGboothA]

I think #6 PRIVATE ZONE can wire this field, should be able to get the lead, but the outside post may be a problem with #5 COMMA TO THE TOP just on his inside. These will be the first two out of the gate and pressing forward. I think the #1 APRIORITY, could get a perfect trip here rating right behind a dueling #6 and #5 early.

What would worry me is that if no one jumps out to pressure #6 PRIVATE ZONE, then they could easy walk to a finish here without pressure. I don't like #7 JUSTIN PHILLIP, he is going to come out of the gate and drop to the rail and more than likley have to pass all the other horses coming around the final turn / stretch to get a win. The ground loss could be ugly, unless someone gives him the rail.

Trifecta partial Key
1 w/ 3,6,7 w/ ALL
6 w/ 1,3,7 w/ ALL

$30

[daoilman]

Trifecta partial Key
1 w/ 3,6,7 w/ ALL
6 w/ 1,3,7 w/ ALL

$30

That's interesting bet, for myself though it has to be the super(1$ copy), 1 over 67, over 67, over 2345.

8$ a ticket, good luck to both of us.

[str]

I am surprised that the logic of figures moving forward does not take into consideration a 3 year old turning 4. It is the norm for figures to move forward when turning 4. Without it, 3 year olds come crashing down in value, which plenty do . Gaining the strength and maturity that exists around the fall-winter of a 3 year olds year and when they turn 4, this is a given even if they are cut out to be a nice horse. Similar to JV and varsity when in high school.

As for the race, if Private Zone gets his head in front of Comma by the 1/4 pole, and assuming he does not have to work his heart out to do so, which you would not think he would have to do, he should draw clear through the lane and have enough to hold off the closers.( Would be nice to see him win a race in the US by now though.) Also, with that head in front, Comma will be forced to check from the rail as he tries to drift through the lane. Not pinning him though, could make for a tough trip as Zone could easily be floated out and a closer come up the fence.

Without knowing if closers have much chance there , as many times they are vs. the speed bias, making a call on the race would be a guess. So I would say if the track favors speed, I would probably bite on Zone unless he was over bet from the program odds. If the track was rail or even, I would look further and try and find the inside closer at a price and look for that rail trip. Can't imagine that track would ever favor closers but if it did, I would increase my play using only closers in exotics and hope for a duel and a bias to fatten up exotic payouts.

[mrginandtonic]

I don't think Zone is gonna have an easy lead. Comma is gonna keep him honest. I really don't understand why THOR would pick the 1-Apriority ML8-1 and he is 9-2 now. Honestly, I would pick 2-Drill over Apriority. Drill has tactical speed and his last race was off 6 months layoff and he had slow start. Not saying Apriority won't win, but I just don't understand it.

[Easy-Rider 66]

The longest shot on the board #4 won.

[str]

Race was run pretty much to script.

Zone seems to have a case of seconditis.

The jock did exactly what he needed to do by getting the head in front at the 1/4 pole but although finishing fairly well, could not hold them all off.

has the track and does the track allow closers to win with frequency this meet?

[JakeLc]

I don't think Zone is gonna have an easy lead. Comma is gonna keep him honest. I really don't understand why THOR would pick the 1-Apriority ML8-1 and he is 9-2 now. Honestly, I would pick 2-Drill over Apriority. Drill has tactical speed and his last race was off 6 months layoff and he had slow start. Not saying Apriority won't win, but I just don't understand it.

from the Thorograph analysis regarding Drill:

....Drill is the slowest horse coming into the race.........Drill could run a new top and still finish out of the money......tough to take at a short price

[JakeLc]

Race was run pretty much to script.

Zone seems to have a case of seconditis.

The jock did exactly what he needed to do by getting the head in front at the 1/4 pole but although finishing fairly well, could not hold them all off.

has the track and does the track allow closers to win with frequency this meet?

Overall the dirt sprints have been a little speedy which is typical but betting the top Fr3 horse has produced a positive ROI so far this meet. So you can close and win and when it happens you get paid for it.

[str]

Overall the dirt sprints have been a little speedy which is typical but betting the top Fr3 horse has produced a positive ROI so far this meet. So you can close and win and when it happens you get paid for it.

Thanks Jake.

At least you have somewhat of a chance to close and win but I have to think that if you get solo and relax during any portion of the race, your chances of winning go way up. By that I mean, much further than if you were running at Saratoga , Belmont, won't say Gulfstream, but you get my drift.

Just seeing if things had changed much from when I was around. Doesn't seem as though it has.

[BGboothA]

Race was run pretty much to script.

Zone seems to have a case of seconditis.

The jock did exactly what he needed to do by getting the head in front at the 1/4 pole but although finishing fairly well, could not hold them all off.

has the track and does the track allow closers to win with frequency this meet?

Closers have had some success at SA recently but not much. The race went according to script I just never thought the 4 would have been the one to pick off the pacers.

[str]

Closers have had some success at SA recently but not much. The race went according to script I just never thought the 4 would have been the one to pick off the pacers.

Agree. Off since June and solid but not a standout off prior form, makes it real tough, thus the 45.00 mutual. Was a bit surprised though when watching TVG when someone commented after he won that he " did not even have a great race before the layoff". What the heck was that! The horse ran certainly OK and was off 7 months. The things I hear some of those people say are mind boggling although others say very solid things. That must make it tough on people trying to capture info. No way to filter out the solid stuff from the ridiculous.

Thanks for the response.

[JakeLc]

Hollendorfer is under the radar for a guy that wins 20% of his starts. One thing of note is Hollendorfer with a morning line price over 10/1 he is 8% with a healthy positive ROI.
Compare that to trainers such as Baffert 4%,Assmussen 3%,Ellis 3% Bruce Levine 4% Chad Brown 3% etc.

[str]

Hollendorfer is under the radar for a guy that wins 20% of his starts. One thing of note is Hollendorfer with a morning line price over 10/1 he is 8% with a healthy positive ROI.
Compare that to trainers such as Baffert 4%,Assmussen 3%,Ellis 3% Bruce Levine 4% Chad Brown 3% etc.

Jake, Hollendorfer has been a monster out there for years as you well know.

I have as much or more respect for what he accomplishes with what he has than ANY Calif. horseman out there ever since the Bald Eagle and Mr. Frankel shipped to Heaven Downs.

Always a pleasure Jake.

[JakeLc]

str

[mrginandtonic]

from the Thorograph analysis regarding Drill:

....Drill is the slowest horse coming into the race.........Drill could run a new top and still finish out of the money......tough to take at a short price

Yes, Thorograph said that Drill was the slowest.... . I by no means meant that Drill will win, I'm just saying I would take Drill over Apriority who was 1 for 10 at 6f and off long layoff any time. Drill was the other hand was 2nd off layoff and he had shown that he can compete at this level. Looking at the replay, I don't think Drill is the same horse since the layoff. Just my two cents.

[JakeLc]

Thorograph analysis basically is what is a horse capable of running and what can be expected today at what price.
The rail horse had run more than a couple of races that were faster than any race Drill had ever run. Add to that the fact it moved into Baffert's barn and the morning line price and it would be something that would garner their interest.
Thorograph had Drill's last race as a lifetime best and the data I use had the same thing.