[str]

hey str

wanted to throw a race scenario at you and see what you think ..a mile race with a lone speed horse ..pace is 2-3 lengths slow.. legit favorite stalks about 2 lengths off clear of the rest or at least running outside of 3rd place horse.. pulls alongside leader at 1/4 pole and takes 6-8 seconds to pass because leader was resilient due to the slow fractions..now another from further back is closing
and he has to find more to hold him off in the last 100 yards and does by a length ..assume the track is playing fair.. is this a better than it looks win under these circumstances?

Hi JBEX,

It sounds like a solid effort and a good win. I'm not sure it is "better than it looks" though. Sounds like the early speed set slow fractions and had a clear lead. The favorite, who is the winner and who we are talking about, was alone in 2nd and no pressure whatsoever until it was time to engage. So the favorite had just as easy a trip as anyone. That is not taking anything away from the favorite . But because of that, it is hard to give the winner more credit than winning does. That winning favorite should have had enough to get by the lone pacesetter, which it did, and because of the great early position, should have had and did have enough to fend off a late closer.
Sounds like the winning favorite ran fine but I would not categorize it as an exceptional effort. The horse got the job done, but in my mind, no extra kudos are deserving.
I am assuming it was a 2 or 3 turn mile. Answer might be a little different if its a one turn mile.

Hope that helps.

[str]

also you think this is too soon to make your move under these conditions ..maybe more like 3/16 pole ?

No. Seems like the rider moved when he/she should have. To wait longer risks the leader becoming braver and the favorite the rider was on possibly losing more energy while waiting. I like going after solo speed a little earlier than normal. I had many good to great to HOF riders tell me that. Not many disagreed.
Many a faint hearted type speed horse will gain a lot of courage if given a solo run well into the stretch. But hook them just before the stretch starts and that courage level, or lack thereof, if in question, will usually show up.
Not to say the leader was like that but speed horses can dig real deep late in a race with things their own way for most of the race. Hooking them while still in the turn, albeit only for a few more seconds, can really make a difference.
From your description, it sounds like the rider did everything right. Again, assuming a 2 or 3 turn race.

[JBEX]

No. Seems like the rider moved when he/she should have. To wait longer risks the leader becoming braver and the favorite the rider was on possibly losing more energy while waiting. I like going after solo speed a little earlier than normal. I had many good to great to HOF riders tell me that. Not many disagreed.
Many a faint hearted type speed horse will gain a lot of courage if given a solo run well into the stretch. But hook them just before the stretch starts and that courage level, or lack thereof, if in question, will usually show up.
Not to say the leader was like that but speed horses can dig real deep late in a race with things their own way for most of the race. Hooking them while still in the turn, albeit only for a few more seconds, can really make a difference.
From your description, it sounds like the rider did everything right. Again, assuming a 2 or 3 turn race.

actually it was just a made up situation but one that surely happens quite a bit.. just wanted to get your take on what the strategy would be for the favorite or I guess any horse sitting that trip.. if the lead horse was able to dig down and open up another length when the stalker got within a length on the turn is this sometimes disheartening to the stalker? if the lead horse can discourage the stalker for a few seconds and manage a brief breather (assuming other gives up) into the stretch could he possibly carry on well.. guess what I'm asking more or less is if that's something that occurs or once the lead horse speeds up well into the turn it would be tough to gear him down for a few seconds so he has something left for the final eigth ?

[str]

actually it was just a made up situation but one that surely happens quite a bit.. just wanted to get your take on what the strategy would be for the favorite or I guess any horse sitting that trip.. if the lead horse was able to dig down and open up another length when the stalker got within a length on the turn is this sometimes disheartening to the stalker? if the lead horse can discourage the stalker for a few seconds and manage a brief breather (assuming other gives up) into the stretch could he possibly carry on well.. guess what I'm asking more or less is if that's something that occurs or once the lead horse speeds up well into the turn it would be tough to gear him down for a few seconds so he has something left for the final eigtht?

Q. if the lead horse was able to dig down and open up another length when the stalker got within a length on the turn is this sometimes disheartening to the stalker?

A. Absolutely.

Q. if the lead horse can discourage the stalker for a few seconds and manage a brief breather (assuming other gives up) into the stretch could he possibly carry on well.

A. At that point the speed horse most always finishes up very well.

Q. guess what I'm asking more or less is if that's something that occurs or once the lead horse speeds up well into the turn it would be tough to gear him down for a few seconds so he has something left for the final eigtht?

A. Yes, it is almost impossible to gear that scenario down after say 15 seconds, for about 10 more seconds and fire back up. But you are only talking about 12-13 more seconds and the horse is firing hard. That is tough to catch especially when the confidence factor is way up as it would be for a speed horse who has been caught and run by more than it hasn't in it's career.
Most of those type scenarios has the speed horse winning the race.
Again, 2 or 3 turn mile not necessarily a 1 turn mile.

[JBEX]

Q. if the lead horse was able to dig down and open up another length when the stalker got within a length on the turn is this sometimes disheartening to the stalker?

A. Absolutely.

Q. if the lead horse can discourage the stalker for a few seconds and manage a brief breather (assuming other gives up) into the stretch could he possibly carry on well.

A. At that point the speed horse most always finishes up very well.

Q. guess what I'm asking more or less is if that's something that occurs or once the lead horse speeds up well into the turn it would be tough to gear him down for a few seconds so he has something left for the final eigtht?

A. Yes, it is almost impossible to gear that scenario down after say 15 seconds, for about 10 more seconds and fire back up. But you are only talking about 12-13 more seconds and the horse is firing hard. That is tough to catch especially when the confidence factor is way up as it would be for a speed horse who has been caught and run by more than it hasn't in it's career.
Most of those type scenarios has the speed horse winning the race.
Again, 2 or 3 turn mile not necessarily a 1 turn mile.

ok str.. the point you made earlier about these horses getting brave if they can make it well into the stretch without being challenged interesting too especially coming from the riders perspective..the one turn mile difference I'm not sure I get.. if I had to guess they're traveling faster on a less sharp turn so you want to wait a little longer? no rush if you're busy and maybe you could explain another time.. thanks again

[str]

ok str.. the point you made earlier about these horses getting brave if they can make it well into the stretch without being challenged interesting too especially coming from the riders perspective..the one turn mile difference I'm not sure I get.. if I had to guess they're traveling faster on a less sharp turn so you want to wait a little longer? no rush if you're busy and maybe you could explain another time.. thanks again

Q. .the one turn mile difference I'm not sure I get.

A. A one turn mile is a sprint race. Just a long one. But it is a sprint.

The mind set of the sprinter speed horse is not to be hooked around the turn , it is getting hooked at the 1/8th pole. That is where they are used to being challenged for the win.
Not so with a 2 turn or 3 turn mile. The name of that game is relax, not so much in sprints. Of course, you need that with sprinters as well but everything is seemingly in slower motion in relaxed distance type races. You want to go after a distance solo speed earlier. The closing stamina is also very different with the 2 different groups. I hope that makes sense.
I know that some players might shrug off the horse mind set stuff but they really should not. Why does a distance speed horse cut identical fractions and when hooked around the turn , quit but if solo until the 1/8th pole, hang in? While the relax is part of it, it's the mental side quite a bit, that is why.
And this might seem to be over thought or hard for weekend warrior players to grasp but it is not. It is right there for all to see in the form. By understanding WHAT you are seeing in the pp's in association with what we just talked about, many a player will spot this scenario both hang in and surrender from the same horse and hopefully better understand what they see in the pp's. I hope so. It can really help understand what transpires out on the track.
Great question and I hope it helped plenty of players.
Thanks JBEX.

Who do you guys like in the Derby?

[JBEX]

Q. .the one turn mile difference I'm not sure I get.

A. A one turn mile is a sprint race. Just a long one. But it is a sprint.

The mind set of the sprinter speed horse is not to be hooked around the turn , it is getting hooked at the 1/8th pole. That is where they are used to being challenged for the win.
Not so with a 2 turn or 3 turn mile. The name of that game is relax, not so much in sprints. Of course, you need that with sprinters as well but everything is seemingly in slower motion in relaxed distance type races. You want to go after a distance solo speed earlier. The closing stamina is also very different with the 2 different groups. I hope that makes sense.
I know that some players might shrug off the horse mind set stuff but they really should not. Why does a distance speed horse cut identical fractions and when hooked around the turn , quit but if solo until the 1/8th pole, hang in? While the relax is part of it, it's the mental side quite a bit, that is why.
And this might seem to be over thought or hard for weekend warrior players to grasp but it is not. It is right there for all to see in the form. By understanding WHAT you are seeing in the pp's in association with what we just talked about, many a player will spot this scenario both hang in and surrender from the same horse and hopefully better understand what they see in the pp's. I hope so. It can really help understand what transpires out on the track.
Great question and I hope it helped plenty of players.
Thanks JBEX.

Who do you guys like in the Derby?

amazing 10's of thousands of races I've watched really haven't thought about that as much as I should have..that is the way they unfold most of the time though.. routes the leader is challenged middle to late far turn and sprinters around the eighth pole.. one turn miles are essentially long sprints and run like them.. either can get brave if they are not challenged soon enough at their respective distances.. great stuff to be aware of and thanks again for explaining that


far as the derby I like practical joke but reserve the right to change my mind between now and the big day.. not just talking about the post draw but handicapping reasons

[JBEX]

maybe a better way to explain this is if a speed horse can stay clear long enough he'll get a psychological boost to take it all the way..if average stretch is say 1000 feet (which is probaby not far off) a speed router would do well to stay clear for at least 150 feet whereas the speed sprinter more like 350 feet..at these points (if i'm in the ballpark) he'll start to sense he can get it done and may give it the extra push that's necessary..by the same token
the stalkers need to attack before these points and if they are successful they will get a boost that they can get it done in that particular race...am I close with this str ?

[str]

maybe a better way to explain this is if a speed horse can stay clear long enough he'll get a psychological boost to take it all the way..if average stretch is say 1000 feet (which is probaby not far off) a speed router would do well to stay clear for at least 150 feet whereas the speed sprinter more like 350 feet..at these points (if i'm in the ballpark) he'll start to sense he can get it done and may give it the extra push that's necessary..by the same token
the stalkers need to attack before these points and if they are successful they will get a boost that they can get it done in that particular race...am I close with this str ?

Yes. I guess that sounds right.

That said, a large part of what makes all we have discussed happen is at least two other things that I must bring up.

First, distance races are typically more strung out in lengths from front to back than sprints are. So it's not necessarily waiting until the 1/8th pole in sprints to go by, that is just what you typically see. If we see a speed horse in a sprint only run to the 3/8ths pole we all agree that the effort was pathetic, right? So we assume speed will carry further in a sprint even if we feel the speed will fade. Hope that makes sense.

Second, and really important is that in a lot of cases, jocks don't get to move exactly when they want to . The ones with a controlling position do, but not horses inside that need to go to keep from getting covered up into the far turn or those inside that will have to check if they don't move prematurely due to the outside horse getting ready to lean on them into the turn.
So some jocks in almost every race are driven to move when they do based on the horses around them , therefore other jocks. Horses that respond when asked in these situations make jocks look good. Horses that don't make jocks look bad. Riders can screw up a winning mount for sure. But horses can screw up a winning ride as well by not being there or being willing to go when a rider needs them to. Many don't have 10 seconds to get going. Most have about 3-5 seconds. So often enough, the other riders in the race end up making decisions for your horse. And a lot of those decisions work out fine but plenty don't. That is why understanding what you are seeing and watching replays is HUGE if you are able to.
Being a guy that was doing this before simulcasting this was easy. Follow one track and be better than your opposition. But in today's world, playing multiple tracks puts players at a disadvantage but only to those that more closely follow a circuit than the player does. And because the old school way is dying off, that disadvantage slowly becomes less and less.
Again, that is why I stress players being able to understand as much as they can when watching a race. The more you see, the smarter you are in the parimutuel pool of players you are competing against.

One last thing,if you notice, often times when closers run by stubborn speed horses that are hanging around or show on paper that they might, they will run by them staying fairly tight to them. And once clear, move over slightly to throw dirt in their face. Staying well away from a horse you are running by through the lane, when it's just the 2 of you, allows the speed horse to not be as discouraged as it would be with dirt smacking it in the face. Next time you see a speed horse come back and catch a closer that was 2 lengths clear, see if the speed horse was clear of dirt in it's face. If so, in my mind, that is all on the rider of the closing horse. Again, it was good, great, and HOF riders that taught me that . And it is so true.

[str]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iFdkHwkpGg

Hopefully you can watch the race and follow the comments at the same time.

This youtube link will show the running of the grade 2 Azeri stakes race at Oaklawn last month in which Irad Ortiz rode Terra Promessa, a 1-5 favorite terribly. Questions about his losing on purpose were floated around which I see as ridiculous but that is just my opinion.
These are the types of things you want to be able to see and understand when watching a replay.

Follow along the timelines and see if you can see what I am talking about.


They break at 41 on the tape. At 43 he looks over to see where, if and who any pressure might come from. His long hold tells me that if he does not make a solo lead he feels he will not be crossed over on, otherwise, the hands would have been further up the neck than his crotch to make sure he was not, if that was what he was told.
At 46 he takes a 2nd look . At 47 his hands stay back but he still thinks he can slide into the turn and not be crossed over on. ( An assumption but that's what I see).
At 51 things have changed. He realizes he will be shut off and knows he must get off heels before they switch leads. At that point he needs to be another length back from his current spot or risk getting dropped.
At this point, let's give credit where credit is due. The rider of the 4 knows EXACTLY what he is doing and knows that his best shot to win is to force the favorite to check and eat dirt on the fence.
What is getting lost in this is the 2 gets rank when her rider grabs her to get away from heels. That happens a lot with speed types or temperamental horses that don't really care for that type of ride.
From 54 to 1:27 she is fighting the rider and wasting valuable energy. She finally resettles starting at about 127.
As miserable as it is to watch by 147 of the race I am saying to myself, ok, you are 1-5 , show it. She still has some run in her I am fairly confident. She has relaxed the last 20 seconds and gotten her composure back.
It looks like the rider is ok with her starting to move from in between horses around the turn at about 148-153 but then she gets steadied again between horses.
As a side note, and speaking in general terms, not knowing this exact horse, speed when they are the best horse can get outrun early and still win but when they are pinned virtually the entire race and their right eye covered up for just about every step, more times than not, that type of running style horse will say, screw it, I'm done.
Having a clean right eye ( no pressure towards the outside eye any closer than a neck behind), allows a speed horse or a type that is not a solid stalker/closer, to at least feel halfway comfortable even though they much prefer to be in front( with a clean right eye and not in an eyeball to eyeball duel). This goes for just about every speed horse at any track.

At 156 the rider is asking for all she might have and she actually gives him something . She is trying and he is asking. At 207 his last chance is to angle out away from dirt and clear and hope that no dirt spray will help. He switches sticks to his left hand and shoots for an open run to his right. But as he starts to try and gain that spot, the 5 outside of him angles inward to keep the 2 down inside, thus driving the favorite back down behind the 6 horse . That ends any run from the 2 . The horse is mentally defeated and physically tired.
I see no evidence of the rider shutting the ride down until he is a well beaten 5th at about 221.

A couple of observations as a handicapper:
When I see 9-6-0-1, I wonder how much heart when things go wrong does that horse have.
The form shows her rate off horses with outside posts where see was controlling the horses inside of her but the one time she is inside and wins from off the pace, she is rank, which she was when pinned in this race.
I see 2 races where she was looked in the eye and stopped. One was the Oaks so no problem understanding that but the other race she was even money. So whats up with that? My guess is she is a very talented horse but needs certain things her own way to get her best effort. And today those things did not go her way. She did show effort today., but was also very rank and tough to get to settle for about 3/8ths to 1/2 a mile of the race.

If I am the trainer, I am pissed. But, if he told the rider to "see what happens leaving there", which I hear a lot these days, well, that is exactly what the rider did. If there was no firm " make the lead" or take back and get outside, or whatever, then the trainer left it up to the rider AND the other riders to set the race up for his horse. Can't bitch about that . He had to know that was a possibility.
Also, I don't follow this rider but if a speed rider was needed and this guy is not necessarily a speed rider, why did he get the mount?
I know I am dating myself but when I had a speed horse and wanted the lead or position I did not get the best rider in the room in Vincent Bracciale, I got Leroy Moyers or Bobbie Gilbert. I didn't get Jo Jo Ladner for that speed horse, I got Joe Rocco. I didn't get Mark Johnston for that speed horse, I got Larry Saumell.
My job was tough enough with the riders who's styles fit my horses. The last thing I needed was Jimbo clamping down Tor's Baby until the veins in his arms popped when I could have Tony Agnello shooting ducks on her.
And again, Jimbo was the best rider in that room. But IMHO, not on certain horses. And I didn't need Kindest Cut laying 4th inside. I wanted him on the damn lead, and that is where Larry put him.

So without knowing what was said by the trainer, much is left for speculation. But next time out, you will know exactly what was said, because the same rider will be back on her if the trainer is ok with the results, or Santana will be back up. Or, a speed type rider if Santana is not available or she runs at a different track. And yes, post position will be big just as it was in this race.

If the 2 and the 4 had switched post positions, I don't think we would be having this discussion. She could have and probably would have been fine a 1/2 a length off the inside horse and with a clean right eye down the backside. She would have moved at that point whenever pressure got closer than a neck to her right or if that never came, would have leaned on the 4 inside her around the turn and most likely drawn off turning for home.
And I am sorry to not agree with those that think the rider wanted to mess with the show pool. Quite honestly, customers assume that the goal they have in mind when they come to the track is a goal chased by everyone there. That is just not true.
A rider like that, in a race like this, for a trainer like that, with a career full of big paydays in front of him would not think in those terms. No way .

There is my honest input on this race.

Hope all this has helped.

[JBEX]

I guess if I had to sum up what you said in the last 2 posts it would be no matter how good a jock you are
the running style and versatility of the horse you are riding
will always come into play.. and even when you have a horse with a versatile style and solid pilot things still have to break your way a bit especially in a big field to get to the winners circle.. for instance having a jock who can see where he needs to be to avoid trouble but not having a horse who can respond quick enough to get there..you could see how bothered that horse was running behind others in the backstretch and wouldn't settle.. then getting steadied on the turn and the hole closing up top of the stretch too much to overcome.. makes you really appreciate the horses who can settle and have push button acceleration when they need it.. they should definitely be given extra credit as to how much ability they have

the example I started with (when to attack a lone speed with a lone or little bothered stalker) is really a very simple one...all these other things that go on typically much more relevant in understanding trips and the challenges of race riding in general ..no mafter what your handicapping ability there's lots of things that have to go right that aren't in your control to cash that ticket

[str]

I guess if I had to sum up what you said in the last 2 posts it would be no matter how good a jock you are
the running style and versatility of the horse you are riding
will always come into play.. and even when you have a horse with a versatile style and solid pilot things still have to break your way a bit especially in a big field to get to the winners circle.. for instance having a jock who can see where he needs to be to avoid trouble but not having a horse who can respond quick enough to get there..you could see how bothered that horse was running behind others in the backstretch and wouldn't settle.. then getting steadied on the turn and the hole closing up top of the stretch too much to overcome.. makes you really appreciate the horses who can settle and have push button acceleration when they need it.. they should definitely be given extra credit as to how much ability they have

the example I started with (when to attack a lone speed with a lone or little bothered stalker) is really a very simple one...all these other things that go on typically much more relevant in understanding trips and the challenges of race riding in general ..no mafter what your handicapping ability there's lots of things that have to go right that aren't in your control to cash that ticket

Q. I guess if I had to sum up what you said in the last 2 posts it would be no matter how good a jock you are
the running style and versatility of the horse you are riding
will always come into play.. and even when you have a horse with a versatile style and solid pilot things still have to break your way a bit especially in a big field to get to the winners circle.. for instance having a jock who can see where he needs to be to avoid trouble but not having a horse who can respond quick enough to get there.

A. absolutely.

Q. makes you really appreciate the horses who can settle and have push button acceleration when they need it.. they should definitely be given extra credit as to how much ability they have

A. That is what makes them better in many cases.

Q. the example I started with (when to attack a lone speed with a lone or little bothered stalker) is really a very simple one...all these other things that go on typically much more relevant in understanding trips and the challenges of race riding in general ..no mafter what your handicapping ability there's lots of things that have to go right that aren't in your control to cash that ticket

A. That,s why it is never EASY to win a horse race . It might look it sometimes, but nothing is easy in this game.

[JBEX]

with belmont fast approaching wanted to ask you this question.. it's a little kinder to grinders lol because of the sweeping turns I believe..if a horse does lose momentum behind others on the turn is it easier to recover than on smaller tracks or does the bank have no effect on that? I would guess the former but sure that's an easy one for you

[JBEX]

hey str..just figured I'd pass on "thebigfundamental" (6-5) is running in R1 @ belmont tomorrow (#6)...I like chad brown's (#7) ..see how he goes 2nd out

[str]

with belmont fast approaching wanted to ask you this question.. it's a little kinder to grinders lol because of the sweeping turns I believe..if a horse does lose momentum behind others on the turn is it easier to recover than on smaller tracks or does the bank have no effect on that? I would guess the former but sure that's an easy one for you

I think that when a horse loses momentum , no matter the track, the horses size and athleticism determines how quickly they recover. That's not a handicapping tool so a player has to hope it doesn't happen. That's where the rider, race set up and post position can help raise or drop the possibility of it happening.
The tough thing about NY racing and getting trapped inside is the fact that the riders ride tighter there because they are all around better and getting out of being trapped is much harder. At tracks other than maybe the top 5-8 in the USA, a rider can get out 90% of the time due to the inability of the riding colony as a whole to ride tight enough to keep a horse and rider buried all the way home.

[JBEX]

I think that when a horse loses momentum , no matter the track, the horses size and athleticism determines how quickly they recover. That's not a handicapping tool so a player has to hope it doesn't happen. That's where the rider, race set up and post position can help raise or drop the possibility of it happening.
The tough thing about NY racing and getting trapped inside is the fact that the riders ride tighter there because they are all around better and getting out of being trapped is much harder. At tracks other than maybe the top 5-8 in the USA, a rider can get out 90% of the time due to the inability of the riding colony as a whole to ride tight enough to keep a horse and rider buried all the way home.

not surprised that riders at top tracks know how to play defense (if that's a good analogy) better than their smaller track counterparts..admittedly I wouldn't have guessed that on my own so good to know..when these top jocks on occasion move back to a middle level track they really should improve their game I imagine...think you've discussed this at some point in this thread

[str]

not surprised that riders at top tracks know how to play defense (if that's a good analogy) better than their smaller track counterparts..admittedly I wouldn't have guessed that on my own so good to know..when these top jocks on occasion move back to a middle level track they really should improve their game I imagine...think you've discussed this at some point in this thread

Yes, they do improve their game. But not really, it's the competition that makes them stand out. And that's not a bad thing, it is what it is. Some riders are just right on the edge of top notch. Nothing wrong with that at all. We all need to find our level in life. It's what you do with your level that is important, right?

[JBEX]

Yes, they do improve their game. But not really, it's the competition that makes them stand out. And that's not a bad thing, it is what it is. Some riders are just right on the edge of top notch. Nothing wrong with that at all. We all need to find our level in life. It's what you do with your level that is important, right?

agreed. a jockey like edgar prado a recent good example..a star in maryland as you know who actually at his peak became an above average (at least) in NY.. as he got older and possibly an injury along the way his ability was compromised.. I noticed in the past year or two he was back in maryland and possibly gulfstream park west and doing real well.. at these venues he is top notch and rather be getting good mounts there than bad ones up north

[str]

agreed. a jockey like edgar prado a recent good example..a star in maryland as you know who actually at his peak became an above average (at least) in NY.. as he got older and possibly an injury along the way his ability was compromised.. I noticed in the past year or two he was back in maryland and possibly gulfstream park west and doing real well.. at these venues he is top notch and rather be getting good mounts there than bad ones up north

Your example and comments of Edgar could not have been better suited within this conversation.

What a great guy he is.

[JBEX]

Your example and comments of Edgar could not have been better suited within this conversation.

What a great guy he is.

looked at his wiki page..won venezia award in 2006
and involved with a charity called "anna house" which is a daycare center for children of backstretch workers at belmont...sounds like a good man

[JBEX]

hey str...wanted your opinion on a horse who ran at CD earlier today..it's R6 #7..I'm gonna take a guess that the horse has to run that way and it's just a question if he can get through which he couldn't here..it was a below average jock aboard and do you think a top or at least above average jockey could have made a difference on that horse? also any impressions on the derby...do you think the rail was good? I saw (watching trakus) lookin at lee was on the rail almost all the way around and of course always dreaming was there most of the way also ..have a hunch it's gonna be a big field for the preakness

[str]

hey str...wanted your opinion on a horse who ran at CD earlier today..it's R6 #7..I'm gonna take a guess that the horse has to run that way and it's just a question if he can get through which he couldn't here..it was a below average jock aboard and do you think a top or at least above average jockey could have made a difference on that horse? also any impressions on the derby...do you think the rail was good? I saw (watching trakus) lookin at lee was on the rail almost all the way around and of course always dreaming was there most of the way also ..have a hunch it's gonna be a big field for the preakness

Hi JBEX,

Sorry for the delay in responding.

Q. wanted your opinion on a horse who ran at CD earlier today..it's R6 #7..I'm gonna take a guess that the horse has to run that way and it's just a question if he can get through which he couldn't here..it was a below average jock aboard and do you think a top or at least above average jockey could have made a difference on that horse?

A. Sometimes a below average jock can try too hard. They want to save ground but get caught inside. Maybe that was the case, I don't know.
It's hard to tell the effects of that without knowing the horse a bit more.
Maybe if it runs back and can drop down a little, ( if that is offered), The horse can get the services of a higher % jock. That is often times a path to success. Or, if not that, a trip that gives the horse the room to show what it can or cannot do.

Q. also any impressions on the derby...do you think the rail was good? I saw (watching trakus) lookin at lee was on the rail almost all the way around and of course always dreaming was there most of the way also

A. The rail was somewhat of an advantage. It was a bigger advantage on Thursday and IMO a little less but still an solid advantage on Friday. The track was undoubtedly graded before the 3 rain day that started on Wed. night/Thursday morning so with Wed. the last dry day, That was the only chance before the Ky. Derby. ( Can't grade mud).
I don't think it made the winner win though. That horse ran a super clean, easy trip of a race. No knock, but he did. Irish War Cry tried to get to his right eye and put the needed pressure on him but was not good enough to do so.
I was surprised that they came home the last 1/2 mile in 53 and change and the winner was drawing off. I thought that was incredible. But watching the replay a few times, you could see that some of the key closer's were all seemingly getting bumped around and finding trouble.
Again, no knock on the winner . But it was a problem for some of those. Lookin At Lee saved all the ground and where typically would have been getting stopped , he never did. An odd run race but that's the game.
If any of those closers were indeed compromised, especially those that CAN lay a little closer if needed ( Classic Empire comes to mind), it will show in the Preakness, providing there is any pace at all. We shall see.
Let's be sure and talk after the pp's come out for this Saturday.

[JBEX]

no problem str.. there's one more level down (clm 5000) and believe without looking they have beaten claimers which he may qualify for at some point.. I'll keep an eye out for next run just for the fun of it.. interesting that you don't think the rail was a "big" advantage and that it was more a lot of bad trips by the others that aided the place horse.. could see as you said with less horses and tactical speed which classical empire does possess he could step up a lot in the preakness... thanks for responding and we'll touch base thursday or friday

[str]

no problem str.. there's one more level down (clm 5000) and believe without looking they have beaten claimers which he may qualify for at some point.. I'll keep an eye out for next run just for the fun of it.. interesting that you don't think the rail was a "big" advantage and that it was more a lot of bad trips by the others that aided the place horse.. could see as you said with less horses and tactical speed which classical empire does possess he could step up a lot in the preakness... thanks for responding and we'll touch base thursday or friday

I did hear about people saying the rail was GREAT!! I just did not see it. I saw horses close outside, not close while inside . It was an advantage to be inside but not as much as Thursday was and probably about the same as Friday was or slightly less.
That's my opinion. It doesn't have to be right. But I was looking for it because of the weather and recent Churchill Downs history with wet days leading up to the Derby . Obviously with the rain , I watched both Thursdays and Fridays cards before diving into the Sat. Card.

As for the horse you will watch, a beaten 5k if eligible would be sweet,but if not, open 5k( might wait 30 days if that makes the horse eligible).
Have to think he gets his choice of rider ( leading rider) and wins that race. That is exactly how you win races with cheap horses.

[harthebar]

hey str , what you doing , hope all is good,
well preakness , do you know that track well ..ha ha ....im just curious ..your thoughts........a horse like looking at lee ...was my derby pick.....he loves coming from behind....im not sure if i would of liked him as much if he wasnt the 1 but he did what i thought, always a mile behind...so i knew he would just stay close to the rail, i think going wide at CD its your dome the turns are so wide there........so the derby is a mile and quarter...how does a horse like this help his situation with a shorter distance....how will that play out...or how will he run, does the shorter distance hurt him...or could it help him . im thinking it forces him to stay closer ..like his other races

[JBEX]

I did hear about people saying the rail was GREAT!! I just did not see it. I saw horses close outside, not close while inside . It was an advantage to be inside but not as much as Thursday was and probably about the same as Friday was or slightly less.
That's my opinion. It doesn't have to be right. But I was looking for it because of the weather and recent Churchill Downs history with wet days leading up to the Derby . Obviously with the rain , I watched both Thursdays and Fridays cards before diving into the Sat. Card.

As for the horse you will watch, a beaten 5k if eligible would be sweet,but if not, open 5k( might wait 30 days if that makes the horse eligible).
Have to think he gets his choice of rider ( leading rider) and wins that race. That is exactly how you win races with cheap horses.

there are no clm n1y or 2y races there...only 1 open 5000 and 7500 race at a sprint distance in mid may
so this guy probably going to get a breather till june..churchill meet runs till the end of June so maybe he'll resurface then..they go to ellis park in July and they have 4k n1y but of course money a lot less ..see what happens

[str]

there are no clm n1y or 2y races there...only 1 open 5000 and 7500 race at a sprint distance in mid may
so this guy probably going to get a breather till june..churchill meet runs till the end of June so maybe he'll resurface then..they go to ellis park in July and they have 4k n1y but of course money a lot less ..see what happens

With that being the case, the horse becomes a very possible claim if he runs for open 5k. Exactly what I would always look for.

Why? Because it's a win, win proposition. If he can win for open 5k @ Churchill the day you claim him, he is worth 5k all day, especially at a lesser venue. If he loses, you wait 30 days, fix any teeth, shoes, blood, whatever he might need work on, and point for the beaten 4k. Get a solid rider and he is a probable winner. And with any luck, winning gets the horse high on himself and HE wants to win again. That makes things a lot easier.
Man, I used to do that all the time.

[str]

hey str , what you doing , hope all is good,
well preakness , do you know that track well ..ha ha ....im just curious ..your thoughts........a horse like looking at lee ...was my derby pick.....he loves coming from behind....im not sure if i would of liked him as much if he wasnt the 1 but he did what i thought, always a mile behind...so i knew he would just stay close to the rail, i think going wide at CD its your dome the turns are so wide there........so the derby is a mile and quarter...how does a horse like this help his situation with a shorter distance....how will that play out...or how will he run, does the shorter distance hurt him...or could it help him . im thinking it forces him to stay closer ..like his other races

Hi Har,

Great to hear from you.

Have to go to my jobs now but will respond asap.

Thanks for understanding.

[harthebar]

Hi Abe,
The first thing to remember about chart callers is that they are all individuals that might very well see things differently.One guy might say "ridden out" the next guy "hand ridden" and so on.If there is one track in particular or should I say one circuit( by that I mean in for instance in Maryland,Laurel and Pimlico would be done by the same guy) getting to know what he sees is important.If you have access to replays , take the time to watch some and see what the chart caller saw . That might help bring clarity to his meaning.Like umpires strike zones, there is no exact to it. Some calls will be more accurate than others.It is hard to rate the calls in order of winning dominance but the best calls are probably, Easily, In hand,as the rider pleased,much the best,handily,etc.They are obviously top notch comments.Ridden out is also very solid.Some horses need a rider to stay active on them or they will tend to loaf ,ease up or lose interest.This usually means that the stick was put away and the horse won fairly easily.Driving is winning with the jock having to work to do so.Hung, means that the horse had the momentum to win but eased up and did not finish like he or she should have.That can be problematic if the horse has a habit of finishing 2nd .Blinkers on will hopefully fix that but not necessarily.Bad comments are faded,stopped,bore in or bore out(erratic running), and a host of others.If there was no apparent reason to stop or fade,well that is not good.However,if replays can show a reason why, then the set up of the next race might be more to the horses liking. There are too many others to list but if you have some that you don't understand ,let me know.
3/8s and 1/2 mile works are primarily sharpeners.They are used mostly to put a horse on there toes 2-4 days before a race.5/8 and further works are conditioning workouts to get or keep the horse fit.The trainer probably feels as though the horse needs that length of work to be able to get the distance they are shooting for. The problem with depending on workouts of say 5/8s is this. If they went 22.2,45.2,100.2., that means they went the last 1/8 in 15.That is not good at all.But if they went 24,47.2,100.2 that means they finished up in 13. That is very solid.It is a 10 length difference from the 1/8th pole home between the two finishes but the time is the same.You also do not know if they were in company or by themselves.With all these unknowns, it is best to not acknowledge the workout as anything from a handicapping standpoint.Don't pay much attention to them.When I try to figure out a race I pretty much ignore them.
And because of my answer, you are wondering about 1st time starters.Simple . Don't bet them. Only possible exception is if the sire and more importantly the Dam throw a lot of 1st time winners.Also, the trainer might be very good with firsters.Maybe take a flier on one once in a blue moon but if you always throw them out you will be right 90+% of the time.Most times the Pletchers of the world are bet down too much anyway.Remember, Secretariat got beat in his first start.
Reading charts is a great way to learn.If you take your time, the chart should allow you to reconstruct the race in your mind or on paper.You can see the way the race took shape and if a horse got a perfect trip .Like layed 3rd by himself behind a fast dual in front and was never bothered by another horse,simply waited and moved past the front 2 when they tired out or if a horse was pinned down inside and overcame much traffic and still finished strong . Any horse can win with a perfect trip.It's the ones that overcome adversity and run well that make for solid play backs in there next race.
Again, if you have access to replays ,you will see more and more each time you watch them.That is one of the best tools you can get.
Hope this helped.Let me know if you have any other questions.

str

Very nice. Str. .you know I'm a big believer in replays .imo I think if you have the time. You should watch every horse last race ... I think it's tell way more. . The truth ..I mean I know the conditions. Are important to know...I just get so much more watching replays ........sometime s you can tell if th horse in the right claimer condition....or even better. If he is in the wrong class. ..it's just as important tossing a horse out of a race ....than trying to find the winner ... you can tell if a horse is in a 20 c. And he had a great race. Did his very best. But it was just to much.

Am I explaining that right .ha ha

[str]

hey str , what you doing , hope all is good,
well preakness , do you know that track well ..ha ha ....im just curious ..your thoughts........a horse like looking at lee ...was my derby pick.....he loves coming from behind....im not sure if i would of liked him as much if he wasnt the 1 but he did what i thought, always a mile behind...so i knew he would just stay close to the rail, i think going wide at CD its your dome the turns are so wide there........so the derby is a mile and quarter...how does a horse like this help his situation with a shorter distance....how will that play out...or how will he run, does the shorter distance hurt him...or could it help him . im thinking it forces him to stay closer ..like his other races

Q. well preakness , do you know that track well ..ha ha .

A. I spent many a day there. That's for sure.

Q. .a horse like looking at lee ...was my derby pick.....he loves coming from behind....im not sure if i would of liked him as much if he wasnt the 1 but he did what i thought, always a mile behind...so i knew he would just stay close to the rail, i think going wide at CD its your dome the turns are so wide there........so the derby is a mile and quarter...how does a horse like this help his situation with a shorter distance....how will that play out...or how will he run, does the shorter distance hurt him...or could it help him . im thinking it forces him to stay closer ..like his other races

A. When a horse drops out of a race like he does, he has no effect on the race until the last 3/8ths of a mile. And no effect on the leaders until the last 1/8th of a mile. Instead, the race has an effect on him. Why? Because he is at the mercy of the pace. If they go too slow early, he has very little chance of running well. But if they run fast early, that is very good for him to run well. So the race is not as up to him as it is others.
In this race, the rider will be able to allow him to settle without having to take back in hand early because the post position won't have him running straight towards the inside fence leaving the gate this time and there will be 10 or so less horses to deal with. That will be of some help to him.
The 1/16th shorter distance won't make much difference in my opinion. I mean, he was not gaining ground on the winner the last 1/16th in the Derby. So I would not consider that. Too me, it's all about the early pace and if the race comes back to him at all.
Laying closer can be tricky. You have to let a horse gather itself and run within itself. Rush them too early and they are out of sync . I have to think they allow him to settle early and hope he has a nice early pace in front of him and a clear path to rally like he had last time. That's all they can do is hope for those things . His running style gives him no opportunity to control that.
All that said, he certainly has a chance but needs several things to happen for him to have a chance to show if he is good enough.
That's my take.

[str]

Very nice. Str. .you know I'm a big believer in replays .imo I think if you have the time. You should watch every horse last race ... I think it's tell way more. . The truth ..I mean I know the conditions. Are important to know...I just get so much more watching replays ........sometime s you can tell if th horse in the right claimer condition....or even better. If he is in the wrong class. ..it's just as important tossing a horse out of a race ....than trying to find the winner ... you can tell if a horse is in a 20 c. And he had a great race. Did his very best. But it was just to much.

Am I explaining that right .ha ha

You are explaining it right. All those things are important pieces to the puzzle . In my opinion, watching replays is as important as any if customers have the time to do so. They are a great benefit as you well know.
Har, I wrote that like 5 years ago or something like that. That's crazy. But that is exactly what I would write today if asked the same question.
Keep up the good handicapping Har. You guys do a great job !

[Pmaynard19]

Hello,

I'm new to this but I have had a great experience so far. I've had some great advice and help given to me from Hart, JBEX and others. I have been trying to read through a lot of threads and doing searches to get some of the answers on my own but I have a couple of questions that I'm not finding clarity on. Forgive me if these are covered in other threads, I have looked but cant seem to find them.

1. I've read a lot about horses "Bouncing". The way I understand it is when a horse peaks speed wise in back to back races, there is a good possibility that it will post slower figures... Is this a correct explanation? Is this a real factor that should be considered when Handicapping? Just with my little bit of experience so far, I definitely see some kind of cyclical pattern with horses speed. Some are even in a curve....

2. Overlay... I'm not so sure about Overlay. I think I get the concept and why it's important to look at but could really use some clarification.

3. When to wager strait Win, Place, Show and when to do a W/P or W/P/S on the same horse. Any rules of thumb? I've been dong mostly W/P on horses that are 3/1 or better (that's another thing...does Better odds mean 4/1 is better than 3/1 or opposite? and is higher odds vs. lower odds 4/1 is higher that 3/1? confused....)

Sorry if this is wordy. Thanks in advance for any help.

[harthebar]

You are explaining it right. All those things are important pieces to the puzzle . In my opinion, watching replays is as important as any if customers have the time to do so. They are a great benefit as you well know.
Har, I wrote that like 5 years ago or something like that. That's crazy. But that is exactly what I would write today if asked the same question.
Keep up the good handicapping Har. You guys do a great job !

thanks, that means a lot coming from,....and thanks for the info.....very helpful as always....

[str]

Hello,

I'm new to this but I have had a great experience so far. I've had some great advice and help given to me from Hart, JBEX and others. I have been trying to read through a lot of threads and doing searches to get some of the answers on my own but I have a couple of questions that I'm not finding clarity on. Forgive me if these are covered in other threads, I have looked but cant seem to find them.

1. I've read a lot about horses "Bouncing". The way I understand it is when a horse peaks speed wise in back to back races, there is a good possibility that it will post slower figures... Is this a correct explanation? Is this a real factor that should be considered when Handicapping? Just with my little bit of experience so far, I definitely see some kind of cyclical pattern with horses speed. Some are even in a curve....

2. Overlay... I'm not so sure about Overlay. I think I get the concept and why it's important to look at but could really use some clarification.

3. When to wager strait Win, Place, Show and when to do a W/P or W/P/S on the same horse. Any rules of thumb? I've been dong mostly W/P on horses that are 3/1 or better (that's another thing...does Better odds mean 4/1 is better than 3/1 or opposite? and is higher odds vs. lower odds 4/1 is higher that 3/1? confused....)

Sorry if this is wordy. Thanks in advance for any help.

Not wordy at all. Welcome to the horse forum. These guys in here are the best. They are very good handicappers, are happy to help others and just really good people to learn from. I am not a true handicapper like they are. I was a horse trainer for a long time. My take is a little different but between all of us, we make a pretty solid group.
Feel free to ask any of us anytime. If I am late in responding, let me apologize now, but no hidden meaning, I am just real busy sometimes doing my thing these days which are not horse related and teaching my son everything I can about by business.
That said, let's get to it.

Q. 1. I've read a lot about horses "Bouncing". The way I understand it is when a horse peaks speed wise in back to back races, there is a good possibility that it will post slower figures... Is this a correct explanation? Is this a real factor that should be considered when Handicapping? Just with my little bit of experience so far, I definitely see some kind of cyclical pattern with horses speed. Some are even in a curve....

A. GREAT question. Horses can and do run cyclical form cycles. Not always but often enough to note. Bounces can be 2 efforts or one huge "seemingly much more than normal" effort according to Beyers, figures or whatever.
While during my time training horses I did see this , it was about 5 or 10% of the time that others would want to call it that. I could write a thousand words on this but the bottom line you need to look at is "WHY" did that horse run so well that day when it seemingly could not do that other days. Was it a bias? Was it an off track? Was it solo speed? Was it a fast early pace and the horse was a closer that caught exhausted horses?
It could be a hundred things. Maybe it was easy for the horse to do this because of the circumstance. Or maybe the horse DID just run one super effort. But there is always a reason. Often times and usually overlooked is the simple fact that the horse was asked to run against better horses and they were better than that particular horse. As a result, they ran a poorer race. Not a bounce, just reality hitting them in the butt. Case in point. I am kicking everyone's butt in basketball and I am the man. I play Labron and he crushes me. Did I BOUNCE? Hell no. I was over matched. That's my point. Was it a bounce or was it over matched. That is not easy to learn to figure out so don't worry about that crap now. Most people see that super effort and say "bounce" is coming. Why? Because they either cant figure out why it happened or it is a built in excuse if the horse loses next time out.
All of that is silly. There is ALWAYS a reason for everything that happens in a race. I know this thread is terribly long but I encourage you to try and find time over weeks or months to read it all. Skip over the blah blah about things or people in the game that don't pertain if you want but I did cover this somewhat and learning TRIPS and understanding how horses think and their likes and dislikes will really help you start to understand what you are witnessing when you watch a race. I promise you it will be more than just some horses with numbers running around and trying to guess the order of finish.

Q. Overlay... I'm not so sure about Overlay. I think I get the concept and why it's important to look at but could really use some clarification.

A. Simply put, an overlay is a horse that is maybe 5-1 when it should be 3-1, meaning a horse that is better and higher odds than it should be in your mind. Remember about overlays and underlays, it's all in YOUR mind as to what the odds should really be. That is quite an advanced way of thinking in handicapping terms and I would recommend not worrying about those yet. I would however, look AFTER the fact, when reading the charts of the races or watching replays of races you bet on and look and see if AFTER the fact, maybe you think the favorite maybe should NOT have been a favorite or maybe someone else should. But all that takes months if not years so don't focus too much on that now. But DO try and learn about it after that fact for now . Before that fact later, like next year.

Q. When to wager strait Win, Place, Show and when to do a W/P or W/P/S on the same horse. Any rules of thumb? I've been dong mostly W/P on horses that are 3/1 or better (that's another thing...does Better odds mean 4/1 is better than 3/1 or opposite? and is higher odds vs. lower odds 4/1 is higher that 3/1? confused....)

A. There are varying opinions on this. My take is don't bet to show and bet 2 dollars a race as often as you want to just to get races under your belt. Also, early on , you need to feel you got something right so betting to place isn't terrible but I would say that instead of risking 4 dollars per race, you bet one dollar to win and one dollar to place. It allows you to cash tickets. BUT, I do think you will eventually realize as the confidence strengthens that betting to place on less than 10-1 or maybe higher is just not much of a return on investment. It's more a confidence thing. As you gain that confidence, you will be able to lose 4 out of 5 bets and do just fine with a + ROI ( return on investment) or even lose 9 out of 10 and make money. All of that can and will happen if you work at it, listen to the people in here and just make it fun knowing full well that if you stay after it, you will know more than 90% of all horse players. That's a big goal, but it is very achievable, especially in this forum and as long as the time you put in is a hobby and enjoyable.

Simply put, 3-1 means bet 1 get back 3 + the one you bet. 4-1 means bet 1, get back 4 plus the one you bet. Watch the payouts and look at the daily racing form charts( just google it, they will come up). Understanding odds is a key and one of many reasons I want you to bet only 2 dollars a race for the next few months. No exactas or triples yet. Go one step at a time. This is a time to learn NOT win and make a ton of money. Everything you put in, you will get out but it's not easy. Very few things worth while are. But you will get there, if you want to really get good at this.

Lastly, do not listen to guys like JJ who knock the game and say everyone loses or it's fixed or it's for insiders. Bull crap! I am YOUR insider. And everyone else's on this board as are those people in here that are pretty darn good . All that is is an excuse to allow him to justify his shortcomings. Gamblers like that need to stick to favorite or underdog. Not us.

[Pmaynard19]

Not wordy at all. Welcome to the horse forum. These guys in here are the best. They are very good handicappers, are happy to help others and just really good people to learn from. I am not a true handicapper like they are. I was a horse trainer for a long time. My take is a little different but between all of us, we make a pretty solid group.
Feel free to ask any of us anytime. If I am late in responding, let me apologize now, but no hidden meaning, I am just real busy sometimes doing my thing these days which are not horse related and teaching my son everything I can about by business.
That said, let's get to it.

Q. 1. I've read a lot about horses "Bouncing". The way I understand it is when a horse peaks speed wise in back to back races, there is a good possibility that it will post slower figures... Is this a correct explanation? Is this a real factor that should be considered when Handicapping? Just with my little bit of experience so far, I definitely see some kind of cyclical pattern with horses speed. Some are even in a curve....

A. GREAT question. Horses can and do run cyclical form cycles. Not always but often enough to note. Bounces can be 2 efforts or one huge "seemingly much more than normal" effort according to Beyers, figures or whatever.
While during my time training horses I did see this , it was about 5 or 10% of the time that others would want to call it that. I could write a thousand words on this but the bottom line you need to look at is "WHY" did that horse run so well that day when it seemingly could not do that other days. Was it a bias? Was it an off track? Was it solo speed? Was it a fast early pace and the horse was a closer that caught exhausted horses?
It could be a hundred things. Maybe it was easy for the horse to do this because of the circumstance. Or maybe the horse DID just run one super effort. But there is always a reason. Often times and usually overlooked is the simple fact that the horse was asked to run against better horses and they were better than that particular horse. As a result, they ran a poorer race. Not a bounce, just reality hitting them in the butt. Case in point. I am kicking everyone's butt in basketball and I am the man. I play Labron and he crushes me. Did I BOUNCE? Hell no. I was over matched. That's my point. Was it a bounce or was it over matched. That is not easy to learn to figure out so don't worry about that crap now. Most people see that super effort and say "bounce" is coming. Why? Because they either cant figure out why it happened or it is a built in excuse if the horse loses next time out.
All of that is silly. There is ALWAYS a reason for everything that happens in a race. I know this thread is terribly long but I encourage you to try and find time over weeks or months to read it all. Skip over the blah blah about things or people in the game that don't pertain if you want but I did cover this somewhat and learning TRIPS and understanding how horses think and their likes and dislikes will really help you start to understand what you are witnessing when you watch a race. I promise you it will be more than just some horses with numbers running around and trying to guess the order of finish.

Q. Overlay... I'm not so sure about Overlay. I think I get the concept and why it's important to look at but could really use some clarification.

A. Simply put, an overlay is a horse that is maybe 5-1 when it should be 3-1, meaning a horse that is better and higher odds than it should be in your mind. Remember about overlays and underlays, it's all in YOUR mind as to what the odds should really be. That is quite an advanced way of thinking in handicapping terms and I would recommend not worrying about those yet. I would however, look AFTER the fact, when reading the charts of the races or watching replays of races you bet on and look and see if AFTER the fact, maybe you think the favorite maybe should NOT have been a favorite or maybe someone else should. But all that takes months if not years so don't focus too much on that now. But DO try and learn about it after that fact for now . Before that fact later, like next year.

Q. When to wager strait Win, Place, Show and when to do a W/P or W/P/S on the same horse. Any rules of thumb? I've been dong mostly W/P on horses that are 3/1 or better (that's another thing...does Better odds mean 4/1 is better than 3/1 or opposite? and is higher odds vs. lower odds 4/1 is higher that 3/1? confused....)

A. There are varying opinions on this. My take is don't bet to show and bet 2 dollars a race as often as you want to just to get races under your belt. Also, early on , you need to feel you got something right so betting to place isn't terrible but I would say that instead of risking 4 dollars per race, you bet one dollar to win and one dollar to place. It allows you to cash tickets. BUT, I do think you will eventually realize as the confidence strengthens that betting to place on less than 10-1 or maybe higher is just not much of a return on investment. It's more a confidence thing. As you gain that confidence, you will be able to lose 4 out of 5 bets and do just fine with a + ROI ( return on investment) or even lose 9 out of 10 and make money. All of that can and will happen if you work at it, listen to the people in here and just make it fun knowing full well that if you stay after it, you will know more than 90% of all horse players. That's a big goal, but it is very achievable, especially in this forum and as long as the time you put in is a hobby and enjoyable.

Simply put, 3-1 means bet 1 get back 3 + the one you bet. 4-1 means bet 1, get back 4 plus the one you bet. Watch the payouts and look at the daily racing form charts( just google it, they will come up). Understanding odds is a key and one of many reasons I want you to bet only 2 dollars a race for the next few months. No exactas or triples yet. Go one step at a time. This is a time to learn NOT win and make a ton of money. Everything you put in, you will get out but it's not easy. Very few things worth while are. But you will get there, if you want to really get good at this.

Lastly, do not listen to guys like JJ who knock the game and say everyone loses or it's fixed or it's for insiders. Bull crap! I am YOUR insider. And everyone else's on this board as are those people in here that are pretty darn good . All that is is an excuse to allow him to justify his shortcomings. Gamblers like that need to stick to favorite or underdog. Not us.

Wow! Thank you so much for your advice and information. I truly appreciate it. All this makes sense to me and I think I can follow. I do have one follow up questuon.

When a horse moves up in class or down in class for a race is this a good thing or bad thing? Is moving up good and moving down bad or reverse? I suppose it would depend on the circumstances but is there a general rule to follow? Thanks again str!