BGBoothA's Exacta Experiment

[BGboothA]

If you follow my other thread, we have over 740 race database that grows every weekend. We have looked at over 2000 races since this project began, but have only recently really started keeping solid numbers.

Our numbers point us in one direction, using our data to make exacta bets. And this is the first weekend I am going to try.

Rules for qualifying exacta bet:
1. Must be on a Dirt or Poly surface, rated Fast. (ie. no turf, no sloppy)
2. Must be on a race shorter than 8.0f
3. Must have atleast one of our top 3 horses with a ML greater than 6-1
4. HBD Confidence Rating of a C or better.
5. Field must be greater than 7 or more horses.

We ran 10 tracks for tomorrow. And will be making $18 exacta bets using a 1,2,3/1,2,3,4 model on the following races.

CRC 1 = 3,4,6/2,3,4,6

CT 1 = 1,3,6/1,3,4,6
CT 5 = 1,3,7/1,3,7,12

FL 1 = 2,3,5/2,3,5,6
FL 6 = 2,3,5/2,3,4,5
FL 7 = 3,5,7/1,3,5,7

HAW 2 = 1,2,7/1,2,7,8
HAW 4 = 3,6,7/3,4,6,7

KEE 8 = 1,5,9/1,5,7,9
KEE 10 = 1,4,7/1,4,7,12

MNR 6 = 5,6,7/5,6,7,8
MNR 8 = 4,5,7/3,4,5,7
MNR 9 = 1,6,7/1,4,6,7

PEN 2 = 4,9,10/3,4,9,10
PEN 6 = 1,2,12/1,2,7,12
PEN 8 = 3,4,8/3,4,8,10
PEN 9 = 2,3,11/1,2,3,11

SA 6 = 2,3,8/2,3,7,8
SA 8 = 5,6,10/2,5,6,10


19 races at $18 a pop = $342 out!!!

[BGboothA]

If you follow my other thread, we have over 740 race database that grows every weekend. We have looked at over 2000 races since this project began, but have only recently really started keeping solid numbers.

Our numbers point us in one direction, using our data to make exacta bets. And this is the first weekend I am going to try.

Rules for qualifying exacta bet:
1. Must be on a Dirt or Poly surface, rated Fast. (ie. no turf, no sloppy)
2. Must be on a race shorter than 8.0f
3. Must have atleast one of our top 3 horses with a ML greater than 6-1
4. HBD Confidence Rating of a C or better.
5. Field must be greater than 7 or more horses.

We ran 10 tracks for tomorrow. And will be making $18 exacta bets using a 1,2,3/1,2,3,4 model on the following races.

CRC 1 = 3,4,6/2,3,4,6 Finished 2-3 (-18)

CT 1 = 1,3,6/1,3,4,6 Finished 7-3 (-18)
CT 5 = 1,3,7/1,3,7,12

FL 1 = 2,3,5/2,3,5,6 Finished 7-3 (-18)
FL 6 = 2,3,5/2,3,4,5 Finished 4-3 (-18)
FL 7 = 3,5,7/1,3,5,7 Finished 4-8 (-18)

HAW 2 = 1,2,7/1,2,7,8 Finished 1-2 (-8)
HAW 4 = 3,6,7/3,4,6,7 Finished 1-8 (-18)

KEE 8 = 1,5,9/1,5,7,9 Finished 8-1 (-18)
KEE 10 = 1,4,7/1,4,7,12 Finished 12-7 (-18)

MNR 6 = 5,6,7/5,6,7,8
MNR 8 = 4,5,7/3,4,5,7
MNR 9 = 1,6,7/1,4,6,7

PEN 2 = 4,9,10/3,4,9,10 Finished 4-10 (-4)
PEN 6 = 1,2,12/1,2,7,12
PEN 8 = 3,4,8/3,4,8,10
PEN 9 = 2,3,11/1,2,3,11

SA 6 = 2,3,8/2,3,7,8 Finished 8-1 (-18)
SA 8 = 5,6,10/2,5,6,10 )Finished 6-10 (-3(


19 races at $18 a pop = $342 out!!!

I am hoping no one tailed me on this.....

[gembo12]

I did, but reversed the top to the bottom. Hit a few.

[unusialsusp5]

you are onto something here but serious adjustments need to be made in your qualifying rules. no reason why turf races should be excluded. also distances should include routes (why not?) forget about the ML rule, base it on actual odds 1 minute before post (agreeing that one horse should be at least 6-1 or higher.) confidence level? not necessary with the kind of spread you propose 3 by 4 too great a spread. chews up money. 12/1234 for only 12.00 (only 6.00) for 1.00 exactas to start with for lower budget players. field size must be 8 or more to maximize payouts. 7 horse fields or lower just don't get it done. and rule 6 which is the key to success with this (the favorite must be thrown out unconditionally) you want to get the money that players lose betting favorites in exactas. so throw them out. if you can't pass the race. just about every exacta is a halfway decent overlay with the favorite out. to prove this multiply the win price x the place price of the 2nd horse. this almost always should give you what the exacta should pay. (vegas uses this principal for their house quinellas (dividing the result by 2 for the quinella payoff of course) ok now we are ready to go. this is all about bankroll management. i say if you have short money try your first 5 plays at 6.00 a race. if you get one home you can expand to 2.00 exacta's 12.00 a race and hopefully go to 3.00 and upwards from there. i do this and rarely miss in my first 5 plays but when i do i double up for the next 5 so a 90.00 loss for 10 races that qualify is all that i'm out for the day. but you have to be a inept handicapper not to get an exacta using a 12/1234 spread.

[brucedenton]

you are onto something here but serious adjustments need to be made in your qualifying rules. no reason why turf races should be excluded. also distances should include routes (why not?) forget about the ML rule, base it on actual odds 1 minute before post (agreeing that one horse should be at least 6-1 or higher.) confidence level? not necessary with the kind of spread you propose 3 by 4 too great a spread. chews up money. 12/1234 for only 12.00 (only 6.00) for 1.00 exactas to start with for lower budget players. field size must be 8 or more to maximize payouts. 7 horse fields or lower just don't get it done. and rule 6 which is the key to success with this (the favorite must be thrown out unconditionally) you want to get the money that players lose betting favorites in exactas. so throw them out. if you can't pass the race. just about every exacta is a halfway decent overlay with the favorite out. to prove this multiply the win price x the place price of the 2nd horse. this almost always should give you what the exacta should pay. (vegas uses this principal for their house quinellas (dividing the result by 2 for the quinella payoff of course) ok now we are ready to go. this is all about bankroll management. i say if you have short money try your first 5 plays at 6.00 a race. if you get one home you can expand to 2.00 exacta's 12.00 a race and hopefully go to 3.00 and upwards from there. i do this and rarely miss in my first 5 plays but when i do i double up for the next 5 so a 90.00 loss for 10 races that qualify is all that i'm out for the day. but you have to be a inept handicapper not to get an exacta using a 12/1234 spread.

Very well said unusial!!

[BGboothA]

Unusial, haven't seen you around, but I love the response....

So today, I am going to narrow it down a lttle more...

As far as the turf goes, my numbers show me very palinly that I am not a skilled handicapper on turf. So thus I am staying away from turf.
But I like the bump to 8 horses, and I like the idea of the favorite having to be out of the mix.

THat being said....today's plays...

CT 1 = 3,5,6/2,3,5,6
CT 6 = 3,6,8/3,6,8,12
CT 9 = 7,10,11/4,7,10,11

FL 2 = 1,3,8/1,3,5,8
FL 5 = 6,9,12/2,6,9,12

HAW 3 = 2,3,4/2,3,4,6
HAW 5 = 4,6,8/2,4,6,8
HAW 7 = 1,5,13/1,5,13,8

KEE 8 = 1,3,4/1,2,3,4

MNR 3 = 2,6,8/2,5,6,8
MNR 4 = 2,3,4/2,3,4,9

PARX 2 = 5,7,8/3,5,7,8
PARX 3 = 1,2,7/1,2,4,7
PARX 4 = 3,4,9/3,4,6,9

PEN 9 = 2,3,10/2,3,4,10

SA 2 = 3,8,10/3,7,8,10
SA 7 = 1,6,9/1,6,9,10

[unusialsusp5]

you grabbed one at parx so far but you are still using that 3/4 costly spread. turf can be much easier to predict if you just stick to horses that have run on it.

[Arletta]

Gotta single some.... NO way will the above method ever be profitable.

[unusialsusp5]

agree, plus he shouldn't be playing all those junk track such as CT (bullring)FL(notorius for games) MNR (has slipped in stature considerably last 5 years)PARX(high takeout and home for crippled horses)KEE (although quality, too many shippers)PENN(good luck there) stick to major circuits and pare your spread down to have a halfway decent chance. 18.00 a race can be better distributed by maybe 3 4.00 exacta's and 2 3.00 ones somehow. also playing them all in advance non-advisable due to late scratches and changes. strongly support vertical wagering as opposed to horizontal (pik 3's, pik 4's etc.) where you are forced to play races in sequential order at the tracks discretion, but his system needs fine tuning.

[BGboothA]

System absolutely needs fine tuning, thats what I am doing. I am not playing all of them blindly. This is just some ideas I am throwing around. I am on to something, this just wasn't it.