Insane goal scoring in the NHL

maniac0201 · 10-16-08, 09:26 PM

Here are the numbers coming into today.

2007-08: 5.57 goals/game
2008-09: 5.96 goals/game

Power play percentage
2007-08: 17.75% (1871 for 10541)
2008-09: 17.93% (90 for 502)

So the question is whether or not this is just a small sample size, or if scoring is actually up. However, the numbers don't indicate the new "faceoff in attacking zone on penalties" rule has anything to do with it.

Crayzee · 10-16-08, 09:28 PM

been pounding em since season started!
fvk the sides!

6-1 overs tonight looks like(need 1 more goal in colo game)

Brady2Moss · 10-16-08, 09:35 PM

no, dont count power play percentage, that has nothing to do with how many goals are scored...

If there are 2 power plays in the whole game compared to 30, percentage doesnt mean anything.

Brady2Moss · 10-16-08, 09:36 PM

I also have the COL/PHI over 5.5, I got screwed on TB/NYI Under... Learned my lesson betting unders in the NHL.

NHL = No Unders League

Brady2Moss · 10-16-08, 09:37 PM

YAY 4-2, Over and its only in the 2nd period. AHHAHAHA

maniac0201 · 10-16-08, 09:40 PM

If this new rule for penalties causing more scoring, wouldn't PP% be higher?

EDIT: I just looked it up. There is almost 1.2 more penalties per game this year compared to last. So that might explain the higher scoring. Not sure how much can be attributed to the new rule.

maniac0201 · 10-16-08, 09:45 PM

Originally posted by Brady2Moss

NHL = No Unders League

NUL?

starboots · 10-16-08, 09:54 PM

Yeah I have been betting Over all season, not one Under bet yet.

Brady2Moss · 10-16-08, 09:55 PM

Well PP% is slightly higher, but amount of power plays is also higher so that doesnt mean the percent has to be higher, goals will be...

Im not sure if this is just a fluke or if the NHL is going to be higher scoring because of this... 48 games is not enough to tell for sure, but this is certainly a trend to look out for.

element1286 · 10-16-08, 10:07 PM

Since the lockout.

2005-2006 6.17
2006-2007 5.89
2007-2008 5.57
2008-2009 6.04

EaglesPhan36 · 10-16-08, 11:41 PM

I too have been abusing the OVERs in pucks. Couldn't pick a side to save my life, but the totals seem as you've said to be lagging in adjusting to the early scoring parade. The two totals set at 5 tonight were ridiculous for MIN/FLA and DAL/STL.

Miser · 10-17-08, 10:13 AM

If I see an over 5 anywhere with good team with a good offense I take it. Here is why. You guys are right about the lines not setting themselves correctly yet. Also the leauge wants more goals the refs are calling more stuff. Also the new rules such as face off locations(did you know if a forward rings it off the crossbar out of play the puck is dropped in the offensive zone now, it used to be the neutral zone)

With a 5 over any hot team can score 5+ goals themselves, two good teams can score 5+ in a game, even in a 4-1 or 3-2 game you still push or the losing team will pull their goalie and there is a good chance for an empty neter, or a goal in OT with 4 on 4.

So with a 5 over we have a few chances to win or push.

A hot goalie will ruin things but that is gambling!

Those are my thoughts on the matter

Mic Lowrey · 10-17-08, 10:55 AM

seriously....this is my first year betting on hockey since i have time inbetween the weekends for football and basketball doesnt start for another 2 weeks....

but one thing i was telling my friend is that there is a lot of goal scoring and the lines still keep staying about the same...

Crayzee · 10-17-08, 07:57 PM

rolling rolling rolling again tonite!!

god damm!!

dyosh808 · 10-18-08, 12:21 AM

Another first timer here. I've noticed the o/u this year are always 5 or 5.5 Is that where lines have historically been? I've been following the past few days and, like you guys mentioned, have been amazed at the percentage of games that go over. Do you think the books will start moving lines up or this is just some random fluke early in the year?

Brady2Moss · 10-18-08, 11:19 AM

Pinny started stacking up more juice on the overs... I do think that scoring will be up this year, but this scoring spree is a bit of a fluke and should settle in once the teams settle in. Hit the overs while they are hot though!!!

element1286 · 10-18-08, 02:18 PM

Originally posted by dyosh808

Another first timer here. I've noticed the o/u this year are always 5 or 5.5 Is that where lines have historically been? I've been following the past few days and, like you guys mentioned, have been amazed at the percentage of games that go over. Do you think the books will start moving lines up or this is just some random fluke early in the year?

They will move the lines up. If this keeps up, which I think it will, the books will move the lines up to 6, 6.5, or 7.

One think I looked at though.

years goals game goals per game first half october
2008-2009 6.04 6.040
2007-2008 5.57 5.682
2006-2007 5.89 5.900
2005-2006 6.17 6.146
2003-2004 5.14 4.719

Seems like after 100 games or so you will be able to determine what type of year it will be as far as goal scoring.

Brady2Moss · 10-19-08, 03:15 AM

No, the books will never move the lines to 6.5, scoring is up for sure but I dont think it will stay like this. Id say most lines will be in the 5.5-6 range with the rare 5 plays