Betting Every Underdog All Year...

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 10-06-08, 01:21 AM

thats alot of bets!

**LT Profits** · 10-06-08, 05:01 AM

I usually do well playing ROAD underdogs and UNDER the first two months of the season. That said, would I recommend playing every one? Absolutely not!

Will you show a profit if you blindly played every NHL Road Underdog until December 31? Quite possibly.

**sweetpete57@** · 10-06-08, 08:48 AM

I figure I'd HAVE to play every game for the 'experiment' to work. It just seems like hockey is the safest sport to take underogs to win outright. Maybe I'll juts bet $30-50 per game

**smitch124** · 10-06-08, 11:31 AM

you can certainly back test your theory for the last couple of seasons, I certainly would do at least that before I started to blindly bet it.

**pavyracer** · 10-06-08, 11:33 AM

My advice to you sweetpete57 is to bet on the team that you think has the most chance to win a game regardless of being the dog or the fav.

**jjgold** · 10-06-08, 12:13 PM

You might get lucky for a while and turn a profit but eventually like anything else you will lose. There is no such thing as a great system, systems run hot and cold.

**fiveteamer** · 10-06-08, 12:17 PM

Pick winners, that is the only system that works.

**daggerkobe** · 10-06-08, 12:18 PM

If I didn't have a massive migraine, I'd probably backtrack at least this season to see how many dogs won outright.

**ryanXL977** · 10-06-08, 12:27 PM

there is nothing that pays like ncaaf dogs
i win +200's and +150's multiple times every weekend

also, taking good dogs, like the steelers+230, will never fail
if you can get skins, eagles, steelers, teams that are top tier but not glamour like dallas or indy, you willwin

**Nicky Santoro** · 10-06-08, 01:17 PM

if You Bet Every Dog In Every Sport, You Will Go Broke

if You Bet Every Fav In Every Sport, You Will Go Broke

if You Bet Every Over In Every Sport, You Will Go Broke

if You Bet Every Under In Every Sport, You Will Go Broke

the Only Way You Can Make Money In This Business Is To Always Bet Only Weak Lines.. And That's It.. There's No System.. There's No Other Way

**SlickFazzer** · 10-06-08, 01:21 PM

Its a sickness nicky. A damn sickness.

**Panic** · 10-06-08, 01:22 PM

Wish I would have bet against the Yankees all year.

**etothep** · 10-06-08, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by Nicky Santauro

if You Bet Every Dog In Every Sport, You Will Go Broke

if You Bet Every Fav In Every Sport, You Will Go Broke

if You Bet Every Over In Every Sport, You Will Go Broke

if You Bet Every Under In Every Sport, You Will Go Broke

the Only Way You Can Make Money In This Business Is To Always Bet Only Weak Lines.. And That's It.. There's No System.. There's No Other Way

Good advice. I'm sure he'll keep it in mind if he starts asking about taking dogs in every sport and not just 1

**Nicky Santoro** · 10-06-08, 02:13 PM

etter,

i have a feeling you were being sarcastic with me.. etter, i don't like wiseasses... etter, i didn't explain why he would go broke in every sport.. not because they all lose, but because the vig (the juice) would beat you no matter which side you're on.. and the only way to avoid this issue, is to bet the best # on each game.. and you will overcome the juice.. etter, it doesn't matter what you bet, whether it's dog or fav, over or under, just beat the closing line consistenly, and you will win at the end. etter, by just blindly betting every dog like this guy wants to do, he will go broke..

**etothep** · 10-06-08, 03:30 PM

Originally posted by Nicky Santauro

etter,

i have a feeling you were being sarcastic with me.. etter, i don't like wiseasses... etter, i didn't explain why he would go broke in every sport.. not because they all lose, but because the vig (the juice) would beat you no matter which side you're on.. and the only way to avoid this issue, is to bet the best # on each game.. and you will overcome the juice.. etter, it doesn't matter what you bet, whether it's dog or fav, over or under, just beat the closing line consistenly, and you will win at the end. etter, by just blindly betting every dog like this guy wants to do, he will go broke..

yeh, sarcasm doesn't come across well enough online, more smilies would help us out with this conundrum i do believe

**Lippsman** · 10-07-08, 11:18 AM

Actually there is a dog strategy that does work a great deal in the NHL. That's to take the "dog of the day" That's taking the biggest dog that's at least +150 or more, although I have used +140 some in the past.

**Mr. Progression** · 10-07-08, 03:38 PM

i just made a post about this, in the "think tank".

if you do these things, you will make money.

1. Play Only ML Dogs In Pro-Sports
2. Play every ML dog with equal or same record (as opponent)
3. Risk the same amount on every play
4. Wait until 25% of the season has been played

over thousands of wagers, the breakeven point is just over (42%), the average payback on winners is (+1.37), the system will hit at just over a (45%) clip, you should profit about (+7 units) for every 100 wagers.

Mr. Progression

**Nicky Santoro** · 10-07-08, 04:07 PM

Originally posted by Mr. Progression

i just made a post about this, in the "think tank".

if you do these things, you will make money.

1. Play Only ML Dogs In Pro-Sports
2. Play every ML dog with equal or same record (as opponent)
3. Risk the same amount on every play
4. Wait until 25% of the season has been played

over thousands of wagers, the breakeven point is just over (42%), the average payback on winners is (+1.37), the system will hit at just over a (45%) clip, you should profit about (+7 units) for every 100 wagers.

Mr. Progression

who is the genius that came up with this theory? #3 was the funniest one.. so basically, if you have a dog at +155, but some book has it at +180, then you should bet the same amount on that game as your other dogs? lol..

who are these kids making up these so called rules of betting dogs.. it's all wrong.. You should ALWAYS bet more if the price you are getting is better than usual.. you must maximize your profits. your return will be much better if you bet more on better prices..

**Mr. Progression** · 10-07-08, 04:14 PM

im merely showing you something that will work over a very large number of plays.

most people can not figure their "win expetcancy", so therefore they need to flat bet the wagers.

this is a simple system that is very easy for anyone to follow, you need no one to post the plays.

if you do not believe this, track it?

and if you know which dogs will win and which will lose, then obviously bet more on the winners.

Mr. Progression

**Nicky Santoro** · 10-07-08, 04:31 PM

progy,

i won't argue with you about your dogs system.. but ask any gambler... if you bet a game at +160, and another book has this same line at +185.. you should NOT bet the same 500 on it.. you should bet about 30% more than your usual bet, if not more.... you must maximize your profits as much as you can..

it's like flipping a coin.. lets say we flipped coins for 100 a pop.. even money.. but lets say i told you that on the next flip, i'll give you +130 on it.. IF you bet only 100, it's not smart, becuase your return would be much higher at +130, so you should raise your bet to maximize your % return.

progy, just ask anyone here that understands gambling, and you will see i am right..

**LT Profits** · 10-07-08, 04:44 PM

Progression's numbers are based on flat betting all plays at either market price or at lines from a single book, and a 7% ROI doing that is actually quite good. BUT, if you could could find off-market numbers on these very same plays and Kelly them as Nicky suggests, the ROI may climb to double-digits.

**DavidCopper** · 10-07-08, 05:26 PM

Op is a retard

**Mr. Progression** · 10-07-08, 06:03 PM

ok, nicky i get what your saying but LT is saying exactly what i tried to say.

my system is based on flat betting and does not include line shopping. throw that in and im sure the ROI will go higher.

Mr. Progression

**Lippsman** · 10-08-08, 12:01 PM

If you have enough books under your belt you usually can find one of them off on the ML a few times during the week. I have seen up to a .30 difference on some games. Usually I will find a reason to take it.