-
Comment -
So am I understanding it right that if my (A) bet = $10 @ 1.50 and it loses then my (B) bet would be $15 (the $10 I lost + the $5 profit i would have gotten if A won)?If your team wins the first bet ((A) bet)), the series is over. If it loses, you will proceed to a (B) bet, wagering the amount you lost in (A) plus whatever profit you were trying to achieve in (A). If (B) bet loses, your (C) bet will be losses from (A) + (B) + profit. If (C) loses, the series is over and we take a loss.
This would mean that if the B bet was @ 1.50 then I would win $22.50 but factoring in my losses in A plus my bet in B I would actually be 22.5-15-10 = -$2.50.
So will we always lose money on B and C bets? Maybe I am misuderstanding something? Sorry if you have already answered a question like this but this thread is too long to fully read through.
Thanks WallcoComment -
Using your amounts. You're betting TO WIN $5 on your A bet @ -200.I don't use European odds, but it looks like -150 to me.Anyway, A loses and you lose $10. If the profit you wish is $5, then your next wager will be $15 TO WIN, which will cover A bet loss ($10) and your profit. If B loses (again say -200), your C Bet will be loss from A ($10), loss from B ($15 @ -200=$30), plus the profit you desire, $5. Your C bet TO WIN will be $45. Always play TO WIN, NOT to risk. Hope that helps.Last edited by BuckeyeKaptn; 11-20-13, 08:28 AM. Reason: Adjusted to correct US odds and dlinx's correct profitComment -
I'll Answer your question correctly for you as my odds are in dollars as Im based in Australia.
If your "A" Bet was for $10 @ odds of $1.50 than you will win $5 if "A" bet wins, if "A" bet loses than "B" bet would be $10 you lost on "A" bet + $5 you want to win, so "B" bet would be $30, if "B" bet wins you collect $15 profit, this will make up your $10 you lost on "A" bet so you will be $5 up, if "B" bet happens to lose also, your "C" bet would be $10 you lost on "A" bet + $30 you lost on "B" bet + $5 you want to win, so you have to bet to win $45, you have to risk $90 on "C" bet to make an overall profit of $5, so following this, this is based at odds being at $1.50 each game, you have to allow yourself $130 per series to win $5 profit, but I can tell you that you would be lucky if you get P/L all at $1.50, more like $1.30 to $1.40 in most cases. At the end of the day, the system has an excellent strike rate, but if all odds were to be around the $1.30 you would be risking any where near $400 a series.Comment -
I found an odds converter and 1.5 is -200 for us US odds players...fixed my post #3223 for US players.Last edited by BuckeyeKaptn; 11-20-13, 08:29 AM.Comment -
BuckeyeKaptn may not be talking in European odds, but his post seems a lot more accurate than yours, which seems odd because the opening line of your post reads: "I'll Answer your question correctly for you...". In your example, you describe a bet system that in fact plays to RISK one unit amount and not WIN one unit per series. This is not how the system is designed, and in fact, destroys the whole premise of "the unit". If he was to bet it this way, his unit count would be lucky to be one half of the actual unit count of the system. Always play to WIN one unit in this system. If the bet loses, you lose your target amount plus whatever juice was added above and beyond your target amount, you wouldn't just lose your target amount.
Example: $10 units @ (-300) odds (which equates to approx 1.33 European). Assuming all three bets are same odds.
A Bet: Bet to WIN $10 @ 1.33 = -$30 on a loss /+$10 on a win
B bet: Bet to WIN $40 @ 1.33 ($30 from bet (A) loss + $10 unit win) = -$120 on a loss /+$10 on a win
C bet: Bet to WIN $160 @ 1.33 ($30 (A) loss + $120 (B) loss + $10 unit win) = -$480 on a loss / +$10 on a win.
Total Loss: -$630 (or 63 units).
In your example, you are showing a total loss of $400 to a total possible win of only $5, and that will only hold true if the odds remain the exactly way you have them listed, since you are betting on the risk amount. This equates to -80 units on a series loss. I realize you are using a slightly higher odds (-1.30 which is (-333) American), but I can say that you will very rarely see the puckline over -320, and almost never ALL three games. Only twice EVER has the system gone over -30 units on a single system series loss, with the highest loss this system has ever taken in the eight year backtest being -32.32 units (in 2005-06), which only equates to an average of (-228) per game or 1.43 European, not 1.30. This pretty much shows that the -63 units in my example is pretty inflated, and the example in your post is way out of line. True, anything is possible, but an 80 unit loss in this system is highly unlikely.
You may know how to bet European odds, but I don't think you fully understand how to bet this system.Last edited by Wallco99; 11-20-13, 09:01 AM.Comment -
Golden Rule For "Unit" Wagering:
If the wager you are placing is a negative odds bet (-110,-200, 1.80 E, 1.33 E, etc....) then place the bet to WIN your unit amount.
It the wager you are placing is a +money bet (+180, +200, 2.2 E, 2.4 E, etc....) then place the bet to RISK your unit amount.Comment -
******Comment -
Wallco NHL GOLD
2013-14 System to date: 53-1 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +40.19 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 3 (-5.72 units)
(11/19/13):
#55 Detroit (M/L) v2 (A) - Loss
#56 Colorado (+1½) v2 (A) - Win
#57 Tampa Bay (+1½) v1 (A) - Loss
v1 Fades
(A) 33-9
(B) 7-1
(C) 1-0
Losses: None
v2 Plays
(A) 7-8
(B) 2-4
(C) 3-1
Losses: DET (-12.81 u)
Games for (11/20/13):
#54 New Jersey @ Anaheim (M/L) v2 (B) (10:05 pm EST)
#55 Resumes v2 (B) on 11/21/13
#57 Resumes v1 (B) on 11/21/13
#58 Pittsburgh (M/L) @ Washington v1 (A) (8:05 pm EST)
Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the team we are betting on, regardless of v1 or v2. If you play the closer line games too early, you may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and games when the line is (-110/-110) or (-105/-105), and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #2446 & #2447.Comment -
You have layed it out well, you are correct in what you are saying, but if you work odds at $1.30 like I have you will end up with the same amount as I hae also.
Keep the good work up.Comment -
I was wondering if you could elaborate on why you chose Pittsburgh. Washingtons on tare right now especially at home and Pittsburgh is pretty middle of the pack when it comes to road games.Comment -
-
It's always the tommy gun...And also because I was at the Sabres last night...didn't go well -_-Comment -
..If...you're not a Sabres fan?Comment -
Oh well then in that case, no...It never goes well for us =PComment -
****Comment -
Wallco NHL GOLD
2013-14 System to date: 54-1 (fin. series)
System profit/loss: +41.19 units (fin. series)
Current open series: 3 (-10.34 units)
(11/20/13):
#54 Anaheim (M/L) v2 (B) - Loss
#58 Pittsburgh (M/L) v1 (A) - Win
v1 Fades
(A) 34-9
(B) 7-1
(C) 1-0
Losses: None
v2 Plays
(A) 7-8
(B) 2-5
(C) 3-1
Losses: DET (-12.81 u)
Games for (11/21/13):
#54 Resumes v2 (C) on 11/22/13
#55 Carolina @ Detroit (M/L) v2 (B) (7:35 pm EST)
#57 New Jersey (+1½) @ L.A. Kings v1 (B) (10:35 pm EST)
#59 N.Y. Rangers (+1½) @ Dallas v1 (A) (8:35 pm EST)
Do not place any wagers on teams unless you are sure your team is the dog or favorite. The team underlined and highlighted blue is the team we are betting on, regardless of v1 or v2. If you play the closer line games too early, you may be overpaying for a loss if you play the P/L and should have been on the M/L, or lose a game that you would have won had you been on the (+1½) instead of the M/L. We will always play the M/L on favorites and games when the line is (-110/-110) or (-105/-105), and always play the (+1½) if the team we are betting on is a dog. ALL results will be based on this principle. If it is a close line game, you may want to wait til closer to game time to place your wager so you know whether or not we are on the (+1½) or the (M/L). All lines and standings are based on FINAL lines from ScoresandOdds.com/. If one of the teams we are playing switches from a favorite to a dog, or vice versa, after my initial post, make sure you get the appropriate line if it differs from what I have posted. The wins and losses will be based on who is the dog team on ScoresandOdds.com/ final lines.
System rules and backtest can be found in posts #2446 & #2447.Comment -
Detroit is play # 55Comment -
Wallco not that it's that big of a deal but Detroit is vs Carolina.Comment -
Screw that choke job last night by the Ducks.... Oh well to another day!Comment -
Only win more than 1 unit when your team is a +money bet. For example: betting the M/L when your team is a dog, or playing the -1 1/2 runline or puckline. All plays in this system are negative odds bets, so you will always be betting to WIN 1 unit in this system. That was just a basic rule of thumb for Chase systems in general. The +money bets will be more common when placing baseball wagers or betting dog teams in other sports. But for NHL Gold, we are always betting to WIN one unit since ALL of our wagers are negative odds bets because we are playing M/L on favorites and +1 1/2 on dogs.
However, there is that rare bet in this system when a team is such a big dog that even after buying the +1 1/2 goals, they are still a +money bet. In these rare cases I ALWAYS play to RISK my units, because if the bet wins you will win more than a unit and the most you can lose is a unit.Comment -
Holy Juice Rangers......-325 and we are close to puck drop. Would hate to see a C bet in this series lets get it done tonight Rangers!Comment -
the old line change after the event closes
-bonhammerComment -
That must be some kind of a record - NJ was outshot 2-14 in the 1st, 3-13 in the 2nd, yet still won. Goalie the hero.Last edited by ridersonthestorm; 11-22-13, 02:19 AM.Comment -
******Comment
