AS odds/win percentage system thread
Howdy. As I stated with my earlier post, I don't know a thing about hockey which makes it difficult to bet on it. So while I'm learning the swing of things, I'm going to see how this old system works. I saw it tried a few years ago with baseball and it seemed successful.
It's pretty simple. You take the implied win % from the Vegas ML odds and you compare that number to the win % prediction from the AccuScore system. If the win % prediction is 5% higher (random number filter I'm applying), the ML bet is a play. I'll be using the opening ML odds on the sbrodds page as the number to go off of since any line movement after that is public influence and not the Vegas implied odds.
And if you don't know how to get implied win % out of the ML odds, it's simple:
For the faves, it's Line/(Line+100) ....so for a -135 odds, it would be 135/235... Vegas basically expects them to win 57% of the time.
For dogs, it's 100/(Line+100) ....a +120 payout is 100/220 ...Vegas is saying they should win 45% of the time.
If this thing tanks hard early on, I'll drop it. But it should be fun to see how it does for a week or so.
And there's already a play for today, incidentally it's the team I already bet on earlier.
Canucks -135 odds (57% win)/ AS (62% win) - 5%
Phoenix -115 odds (53% win) / AS (55% win) - 2%
Colorado -120 odds (55% win) / AS (55% win) -0%
Record: 0-0
It's pretty simple. You take the implied win % from the Vegas ML odds and you compare that number to the win % prediction from the AccuScore system. If the win % prediction is 5% higher (random number filter I'm applying), the ML bet is a play. I'll be using the opening ML odds on the sbrodds page as the number to go off of since any line movement after that is public influence and not the Vegas implied odds.
And if you don't know how to get implied win % out of the ML odds, it's simple:
For the faves, it's Line/(Line+100) ....so for a -135 odds, it would be 135/235... Vegas basically expects them to win 57% of the time.
For dogs, it's 100/(Line+100) ....a +120 payout is 100/220 ...Vegas is saying they should win 45% of the time.
If this thing tanks hard early on, I'll drop it. But it should be fun to see how it does for a week or so.
And there's already a play for today, incidentally it's the team I already bet on earlier.
Canucks -135 odds (57% win)/ AS (62% win) - 5%
Phoenix -115 odds (53% win) / AS (55% win) - 2%
Colorado -120 odds (55% win) / AS (55% win) -0%
Record: 0-0