vassman's 2010-2011 NHL Campaign

[vassman86]

Some early leans for today's games.

Los Angeles Kings
The Senators have been struggling on both ends of the ice lately. Over their last five games, they've managed to win one game. It seems that the Sens are having trouble finding the back of the net as they've only scored a total of six times in that five game stretch. Defensively, their woes are terrible. Ottawa has been outscored 23-6 over their last five games. I think their troubles will continue tonight when the Kings take the ice. LA was one of the best teams last season in non-conference games. This season, it looks like the trend is continuing as the Kings have gone 6-1-0 against the East so far. I think LA-backers are getting a bargain here as they've seemingly struggled over their last four games.

As bad as Dallas has been lately, I think they'll beat my hometown Leafs tonight. Dallas is a stellar 5-1-0 against the East, and I know for a fact that the Leafs haven't fared too well against the West dating back to last season.

I'll ponder about these two games and a couple others before I lock in the plays. Keep checking back.

[vassman86]

Washington Capitals
The Capitals outmatch the Devils in every possible category. As a dog, New Jersey is a miserable 2-8 straight-up. Meanwhile, as a favourite, the Capitals have amassed a 14-6 record. More over, the Devils are playing like diarrhea: they stink and they're sloppy. I'd be generous if I said the Devils were a work in progress. But they're not. There is something seriously wrong with that team and until a major change takes place, I can't see them improving whatsoever.

[vassman86]

Plays for Monday November 22nd, 2010:

Los Angeles Kings -110: Risking $110 to win $100

Dallas Stars -108: Risking $108 to win $100

Washington Capitals -0.5 RT -113: Risking $113 to win $100


Write-ups can be found above. As you may or may not know, I was out of town for the weekend. It was a short trip, but I did not get my daily fix of sports for two days. To me, that's a big deal. In the past, whenever I'd go on vacation (which is normally for 5+ days), I feel really out of tune with the handicapping aspect of NHL. So, although this was a short trip for me, I'll be using today as, more or less, a warm-up day.

If you haven't done so yet, please take a look at posts #100 and #103 of my thread. They're my two most favourite posts ever

Post #100
I give a thorough breakdown of all of my plays so far this season, which was very helpful for myself. I was able to find my strengths and weaknesses of betting this season, how well I was sizing my units, and where I made and lost the most money. I even go as far as breaking down which teams I've been profiting and losing from.

Post #103
For anyone interested in understanding why I bet games using the -0.5 RT instead of on the ML and whether or not it works, have a read and you'll see the method to the madness. The proof is in the pudding, and the pudding tastes delicious. Go get some!

[BallerBoy]

Im on Dallas ML

GL

[vassman86]

Im on Dallas ML

GL

Thanks! You too. Early last week, when I implemented the Chase system on the Leafs, I had it perfectly pegged. I bet for them to win against Nashville that night, and was very fortunate that they pulled through. But if they lost, I already knew when I'd be betting on or against them. I'd have taken the Leafs to win against New Jersey (which I actually bet on as well). I'd have taken the Leafs to lose to Montreal. And if I was somehow wrong on all of those plays, I'd have bet for Dallas to win tonight.

[ScamArtist]

GL tonight, get em!

[vassman86]

GL tonight, get em!

You too! The only feeling that's better than having a winning week, is the feeling of starting a week on a winning note.

[vassman86]

WARNING! Follow my play on the Capitals at your own risk. Just discovered that Holtby will be starting in net. I was under the impression that Neuvirth was getting the start, but it seems that there's been a change. The line for the Caps dropped from -165 to -145. I don't like Holtby one bit, but I do like the Caps offense.

[lolguy999]

Very generous of you to share and break down some of your past experiences. I think since i missed some good plays at 7 imma pass the rest... ottawa is too random, but expect a clean good game from them and the kings. Have fun if you're watching

[Just Enough]

hey vassman, just started reading your thread. very good stuff, love the write-ups. this my second year wagering on nhl as well. check my sig and you can see how well i'm doing. i mostly chase, so i'm confident i'll bounce back. anyway, i really had bad experiances with -0.5 lines. i just couldn't stand the team i wagered on winning and me losing cash. so i swore off of it. now when the juice gets high or my chase amount gets high, i play the -1 line. it's just as cheap if not cheaper. just wondering if you ever considered that? at least you have a chance for a push. it bailed me out quite a few times. that's just my 2 cents, take it for what it's worth. i'm one of the worst in the forums right now. just trying to help another out. GL to you bro.

[lolguy999]

lol had a feeling LA/OT was gonna come down to a flip..

[vassman86]

hey vassman, just started reading your thread. very good stuff, love the write-ups. this my second year wagering on nhl as well. check my sig and you can see how well i'm doing. i mostly chase, so i'm confident i'll bounce back. anyway, i really had bad experiances with -0.5 lines. i just couldn't stand the team i wagered on winning and me losing cash. so i swore off of it. now when the juice gets high or my chase amount gets high, i play the -1 line. it's just as cheap if not cheaper. just wondering if you ever considered that? at least you have a chance for a push. it bailed me out quite a few times. that's just my 2 cents, take it for what it's worth. i'm one of the worst in the forums right now. just trying to help another out. GL to you bro.

In short, I have considered the -1 lines before. So far in the season, I've amassed a 10-8 +$421 record by using the -0.5 RT lines. Eight of those wins came by two or more goals. If I'd play those games on the -1 RT line (I don't have the exact numbers), but my record would be something along the lines of 8-8-2. The two games that resulted in a push, are games where I would've won $100, and $300 if I'd used the -0.5 RT line. So, I'd actually think that both profit margins would be roughly the same with the -1 and -0.5 RT lines.

[vassman86]

Summary for November 22nd, 2010:

0-3 -$331

A rough way to start the week. You know I'll be back at it tomorrow though. There's only one game on the board tomorrow and I'm not sure whether I'll make a play on it or not.

[lolguy999]

Summary for November 22nd, 2010: 0-3 -$331 A rough way to start the week. You know I'll be back at it tomorrow though. There's only one game on the board tomorrow and I'm not sure whether I'll make a play on it or not.

sry bout the night vass, hope the 2 plays available tmr can bring some luck ill try and give a play here tomorrow too

[vassman86]

After awakening from my slumber, I pondered long and hard about whether I'd make a play on Phoenix today. And I'm leaning toward playing the Coyotes -0.5 RT, but that's yet to be official. Before I placed my bet, I'd want to make sure of several things. More importantly, who's starting for each team? It looks as though Dubnyk will square off against Bryzgalov.

So by following hockey pretty closely since last season, I already knew that after the Islanders, the Oilers are the worst road team in the league, and have been that way since last season. For instance, dating back to last season, Edmonton's road record is a disgraceful 12-33-7. That's a lot of losing. Compare that to the way Phoenix has been doing at home over the last two seasons: 33-12-5. Their records fall on opposite ends of the spectrum.

Back to the goalies. I said this sometime last year: "Dubnyk doesn't deserve to be a starting goalie in the NHL." Although his stats from this season have improved, it's overshadowed by his sheer suckiness from last season. On the road, Dubnyk is a ghost in net. His career stats on the road (which only go back to last season), are an Oileresque 2-6-3 with a 4.46 GAA. It definitely helps that his record got a much needed padding from their win against Anaheim on Sunday.

Moving over to Bryzgalov's stats, we begin to see the big picture. On one end, we have a goaltender that is seemingly uncomfortable in net, and on the other end, we have a proven goaltender, that's on an entirely different level than his counter-part. Since last season, Bryzgalov has a home record of 31-9-4 with a 2.27 GAA. During that stretch, against the Oilers he's gone 4-1-0 with a 2.80 GAA. Dubnyk's lone start against the Coyotes was earlier this season in a 4-3 OTL at home.

Let's break down how each team has been performing over their last ten games. Phoenix is on a six-game winning streak, with a 7-1-2 record over their L10 games while outscoring their opposition 34-30. Five wins came by one goal (including a SO win), one loss came in OT, another came via SO. Phoenix' PK was not the best, as they allowed 9 goals on 33 chances; 73% efficiency. Their PP was better, as they scored on 8 of 35 attempts for a 23% efficiency.

The Oilers' last ten games look something like this: 2-7-1, with six of those losses coming by two or more goals, and four of those losses coming by four or more. Defensive woes indeed. The Oilers were outscored 21-44 by their opponents. Their PK allowed 12 goals on 35 attempts, 64% efficiency. Their PP went 4 for 33, scoring at a 12% efficiency.

So what does this all mean? After researching all these stats, I'm actually more compelled to make a play on the Coyotes -0.5 RT. They got off to a slow start against the Oilers in their last outing as they were down 3-0 midway through the second period, and only managed to tie it with 35 seconds left in the game. I think tonight we'll see a different story. I expect the Coyotes to get off to a much better start, continue their winning streak, and for the Oilers to do what they do best: choke to death.

Check back before game-time and I'll have a decision on the play.

[vassman86]

Play for Tuesday November 23rd, 2010:

Phoenix Coyotes -0.5 RT -123: Risking $246 to win $200

[Just Enough]

good luck tonight vass, i'm on the yotes -1.

[vassman86]

good luck tonight vass, i'm on the yotes -1.

Thanks! When there are limited games to choose from, I tend to take a night off. I learned the hard way, particularly in NBA: nights when there were three or fewer games on the board, I felt that the lines were very tight. The same principle should apply to NHL as well. But I've had this play on my mind since I woke up today, and I can't see the Coyotes losing to the Oilers. Not only do both teams home vs away stats compel me, Phoenix has managed to win five of their last six meetings against the Oilers. Let's hope the Oilers lay down and die tonight.

[lolguy999]

Thanks! When there are limited games to choose from, I tend to take a night off. I learned the hard way, particularly in NBA: nights when there were three or fewer games on the board, I felt that the lines were very tight. The same principle should apply to NHL as well. But I've had this play on my mind since I woke up today, and I can't see the Coyotes losing to the Oilers. Not only do both teams home vs away stats compel me, Phoenix has managed to win five of their last six meetings against the Oilers. Let's hope the Oilers lay down and die tonight.

I learned this way with SBR points But ya... im chickening right now... Let's hope for some rested teams and a BIG FAT OVER tomorrow!!
Goo-luck on your play!

[vassman86]

I was a little apprehensive to make a play tonight, but the more I think about it, the better I feel about the Coyotes winning tonight. The line has dropped from Phoenix -192 to -179. Before game-time, when I'm sure of both starting goalies, I might even lay some more on Phoenix.

[vassman86]

Summary for November 23rd, 2010:

1-0 +$200

[vassman86]

The Islanders have some serious issues. After starting the season at the top of their division, they've slowly sunk to the bottom. It doesn't look like they can get anything going for them. The Islanders have lost thirteen straight games. and the trend doesn't seem to be ending. Everyone gets to stomp the Islanders. When a team's losing this badly, it affects the player's morale: why try when you know your entire team is so bad? We saw this last year in several teams that had lengthy struggles. Last season Edmonton, Calgary, even Columbus went on long losing streaks. They're not easy to stop.

On the other hand, the Blue Jackets have been the talk of the league. Winners of four straight, Columbus is getting contributions from every aspect of their team. Goaltending does not seem to be a problem, and defense is tight. The chemistry is just right. Not to mention, the Blue Jackets are owners of the best road record in the league. They'll look to improve on their 7-1-0 road record tonight. Against the East, they're an impressive 3-0-0.

I'll have the play up by game-time.

[vassman86]

Some other games that I'll be considering for tonight:

Montreal Canadiens -115
Nashville Predators -107

Write-ups will ensue.

[ochenta y cinco]

Friendly advice: be cautious with Canadiens ML bets when a Quebecois goalie comes into town. It leads more often than not to a Habs loss.

Bernier should be no exception to that rule.

[vassman86]

Friendly advice: be cautious with Canadiens ML bets when a Quebecois goalie comes into town. It leads more often than not to a Habs loss.

Bernier should be no exception to that rule.

Thanks for the comment. I appreciate the insight. I haven't looked into that game yet, so it's yet to be official.

[vassman86]

Plays for Wednesday November 24th, 2010:

Columbus Blue Jackets -0.5 RT +122: Risking $200 to win $244
You can't deny it: the Blue Jackets are playing some textbook hockey. All cylinders are firing and things just seem to be going their way. Both goaltenders have been dominant in net recently, and team morale is flying high. Sadly, the same cannot be said about the Islanders. If the Blue Jackets win tonight, they'll make sure to do it in regulation time.

Nashville Predators -107: Risking $214 to win $200
For whatever reasons, the Blues were favoured on the ML, but only for a little while. The ML shifted to where it sits now, with Nashville as the slight favourite. Historically, the Predators have dominated the Blues. No jokes. The Predators are 6-1 SU in their last seven games against the Blues, and 15-5 over their last 20 games played in Music City. Why are the Predators so dominant? I can't be 100% certain, but taking a look at each team's stats vs the Central division last season, you quickly see the Blues were a subpar 10-11-3, while the Preds were 14-8-2. As long as Nashville can lock down on defense, they will get the job done tonight. The Blues are not a deep team offensively, and as we saw in the post-season, the Predators' defense can give the best offensive teams the fits.

Montreal Canadiens -115: Risking $230 to win $200
I know it's been a long time since the 1993 Canadiens won the Stanley Cup. But, they still seem to be haunting the Kings franchise. Over their last 10 meetings in Montreal, the Habs have won nine games. Although the Kings were one of the best non-conference teams last season, they've lost two of their last three games to the East. The Kings have also lost four of their last five games. Tonight, they'll be on the tail end of an East coast road trip, playing their fourth game in six nights.

[vassman86]

Summary for November 24th, 2010:

1-2 -$214

Ahh, sometimes you just can't catch a break. I admit, I got greedy with the Blue Jackets and took them in regulation time, which proved to be my downfall tonight. No complaints about Nashville; it was just a duel between the goalies. St. Louis scores 9 seconds into the game, have a total of 15 shots, but the Preds just couldn't finish them. Sometimes things just go like that.

[vassman86]

Thought I'd add this interesting fact: out of the thirteen games last night, ten ML favourites won. Six of those favourites won by two or more. Betting every favourite on the -1.5 PL would result in 6.97 units of profit.

[vassman86]

Only one game on the board tonight. I'm very tempted to continue betting against Edmonton. There are several variables that'll make or break my decision. With Edmonton's offense already struggling, it surely won't help if Hemsky sits this one out.

More importantly, Martin Gerber will be getting the start for the Oilers tonight. For a goaltender that hasn't played a game since April 2009, this is a big deal. I think he'll fall on either side of the extreme spectrum: really sharp, or terribly bad. I'm leaning toward the latter, mostly because Edmonton's defense has more holes than a homeless man's favourite shirt.

The Avs don't fare well against their own division, which coincidentally, they share with the Oilers. However, this is the tale of two opposites. Colorado sits atop the Northwest division as they stare down and see the Oilers, curled up into a fetal ball. After watching the EDM/PHX game the other night, I saw some offensive spark from the Oilers' squad, but nothing materialized of it. Bryzgalov saw every shot coming. I think their problem is that their key players are trying to do too much single-handedly, which results in costly turnovers. Sloppy line changes also led to scoring opportunities for the Coyotes.

A more pressing matter for the Oilers would be their horrid defence. They just aren't getting to the puck, they can't clear the zone. And they're just not motivated.

Freebie points are everyone's favourite. I don't think Colorado will let this one slip away. Stay tuned, there may be a play on the Avs tonight.

[vassman86]

Play for Turkey Day November 25th, 2010:

Colorado Avalanche -119: Risking $357 to win $300
I didn't want to wait this one out. The line is good enough where it is right now, and I'd imagine it'd get a little pricier before game-time. I actually expect the Oilers to come out strong, but I don't think it's anything that the Avs won't be prepared for.

[lolguy999]

Play for Turkey Day November 25th, 2010: Colorado Avalanche -119: Risking $357 to win $300 I didn't want to wait this one out. The line is good enough where it is right now, and I'd imagine it'd get a little pricier before game-time. I actually expect the Oilers to come out strong, but I don't think it's anything that the Avs won't be prepared for.

oo 3 unit play alright ill tail

[vassman86]

oo 3 unit play alright ill tail

Sorry homie. Sometimes plays just don't work out. I just about never regret any play I make. If there's a sense of regret before I make the play, then I just won't make it at all. As for last night, Colorado did what they came to do: outshot the Oilers for the game, outshot them badly during the first two periods, and had their chances. Gerber played well tonight and made some critical saves. If the Avs were able to take it to OT, I think they'd have won.

Summary for November 25th, 2010:

0-1 -$357

[vassman86]

Early plays for Black Friday, November 26th, 2010:

GAME STARTS AT 1PM

Philadelphia Flyers -1.5 PL +150: Risking $133 to win $200
Philadelphia Flyers -0.5 RT -125: Risking $375 to win $300

If anyone hasn’t noticed, the Flyers are a wrecking machine. They give new meaning to the term “offensive potency”. Calgary has once again returned to their usual strugaloid norms. Of their last four losses, they scored one goal in three of those games. Against the East, the Flames are 0-3-1 this season. Calgary is also on the fourth game of an East coast road trip. Anyone tired? Let’s see if they can keep pace with the Flyers tonight. Not to mention, the Flames have scored two goals in their last two games; both of which have come against back-up goalies. Good luck getting one by Bobrovsky.

NOTE: If money is lost against the Flames, I'll be loading up on Pittsburgh tomorrow.

[lolguy999]

Early plays for Black Friday, November 26th, 2010: GAME STARTS AT 1PM Philadelphia Flyers -1.5 PL +150: Risking $133 to win $200 Philadelphia Flyers -0.5 RT -125: Risking $375 to win $300 If anyone hasn’t noticed, the Flyers are a wrecking machine. They give new meaning to the term “offensive potency”. Calgary has once again returned to their usual strugaloid norms. Of their last four losses, they scored one goal in three of those games. Against the East, the Flames are 0-3-1 this season. Calgary is also on the fourth game of an East coast road trip. Anyone tired? Let’s see if they can keep pace with the Flyers tonight. Not to mention, the Flames have scored two goals in their last two games; both of which have come against back-up goalies. Good luck getting one by Bobrovsky. NOTE: If money is lost against the Flames, I'll be loading up on Pittsburgh tomorrow.

Thanks for pointing this out mate! Tailing

[vassman86]

Very disappointed that the Flyers couldn't get the job done. Getting ready to load up on the Penguins tomorrow. Calgary will be on the fifth game of a five game East coast road trip. This will be their fifth game in seven days.