Guarantee Me 45 wins!!

CapsFan · 09-30-10, 10:43 PM

I like these picks for 45 wins. Some others to consider are New Jersey, Chicago, and Phoenix

Eleven · 10-01-10, 03:53 AM

Id go with Washington.

ochenta y cinco · 10-01-10, 12:29 PM

Every team the OP mentioned should get anywhere between 45 and 50 wins.

I would add Boston, NJ and perhaps even LA to the list.

thefonzo · 10-01-10, 05:43 PM

Thanks guys, I had all the other teams you guys mentioned in my next 5. Just wanted to know the 5 teams you experts are most confident in.

MrZ · 10-02-10, 12:18 AM

They all look good man, I would add NJ, LA and PHX

Castorinho · 10-02-10, 01:59 AM

Solid picks, I think all those teams have the potential to reach 50. GL

majestece · 10-02-10, 02:23 AM

I would go with Sharks and Capitals

ochenta y cinco · 10-02-10, 03:00 AM

The Bruins will be so damn good and steady. That's a nice little team Claude Julien has under his hand, and this coming from a Habs fan.

I'd be shocked if the B's don't win 45 games this season. They play under a good system, have good offensive depth, a future Vezina candidate between the pipes, and a d-core that, without being spectacular, gets the job done.

If I had money to bet on a future prop bet, that'd be one I'd be tremendously confident in. For now, all they need is Savard to get healthy so he can feed Nathan Horton, who is long overdue for a true breakout season.

Eleven · 10-02-10, 03:42 AM

Thanks for the points fonzo

thefonzo · 10-02-10, 01:01 PM

So let's look at the other end of the spectrum. Who finishes the season with the fewest wins? Edmonton seems like the popular choice. Florida, Columbus, and NYI also appear to be in the mix.

If I had to pick one, it would definitely be Edmonton, IMO. I'm torn between Florida and Columbus for second worst (just because Florida may sneak out a few more W's against a weaker Eastern Conference).

BTW, I'm looking into this with the thoughts of trying a very conservative Labouchere-type system. Anyone want to scream at me to stop before I start

?

jose21_us · 10-03-10, 09:55 AM

I think Florida makes the playoffs this year as the 8th seed. They have Dale Tallon from the blackhawks and he isnt taking shit down here from no one. Love the attitude and expect alot of upsets throughout the season with this team.

ochenta y cinco · 10-03-10, 04:47 PM

I think there's no way the Islanders don't end up in the bottom-3 of the league. They were already a basement team before learning the loss of their #1 guy on D (Mark Streit) and their #1 winger (Kyle Okposo, 2-3- months) to long-term injuries. In Streit's case, he could miss up to 6 months...

There's no depth, no top-end talent on their defence. Goaltending is shaky, and offence is average at best.

14th-15th in the East is what's awaiting the Isles.

thefonzo · 10-03-10, 06:55 PM

Thanks for the input guys. Look forward to following along with the action here.

jose21_us · 10-03-10, 10:21 PM

thank for the points and looking forward to another rewarding nhl season!!

D3 Mighty Ducks · 10-04-10, 12:04 PM

5 teams that will come close to 45 wins...

Buffalo, Washington, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Los Angeles.

The Sabres are a very underrated team IMO.

Soxsfan9 · 10-04-10, 06:35 PM

I think that New Jersey hits the 45 win mark. With Marty back and now with Kovi up front I think team hits 45 wins!

ochenta y cinco · 10-04-10, 06:47 PM

Originally posted by D3 Mighty Ducks

5 teams that will come close to 45 wins...

Buffalo, Washington, Pittsburgh, San Jose, Los Angeles.

The Sabres are a very underrated team IMO.

Sabres' defence represents a huge question mark. Myers-Rivet-Leopold-Butler-Sekera-Montador as a top 6? Unless Myers takes another step towards stardom, this D core will be outmatched badly againt some of the stacked offences in the East...

rkelly110 · 10-05-10, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by thefonzo

So let's look at the other end of the spectrum. Who finishes the season with the fewest wins? Edmonton seems like the popular choice. Florida, Columbus, and NYI also appear to be in the mix.

If I had to pick one, it would definitely be Edmonton, IMO. I'm torn between Florida and Columbus for second worst (just because Florida may sneak out a few more W's against a weaker Eastern Conference).

BTW, I'm looking into this with the thoughts of trying a very conservative Labouchere-type system. Anyone want to scream at me to stop before I start

?

So what's your plan? Because if you have one, I need one.

Are you doing a seperate labby for each team? For winners and against
lossers?

Some of the winners are going to have high juice, are you going to bet
PL?

thefonzo · 10-05-10, 10:26 PM

Sorry this got so lengthy, but I thought I should put it all down.

I look at it as a modified Labby because I will try to regain my losses over future bets. I don't look at it as a chase because I'm not doubling down. I'll be betting money line on the same team every game throughout the year (I know, here comes the screaming from the experts).

I've done it with baseball, and I think it will work in NHL. There are 2 keys: you have to do your research and pick the right team(s), and you have to be VERY conservative with your bets.

So let's say the team I want to use is Vancouver. We can be fairly certain that they will win at least 45 games this year, so I'm going to make 40 units my goal. Each unit is .5% of my bankroll, so the goal is that Vancouver will increase my roll by 20%.

Let's say my bankroll is $2000, making each unit $10. I have a spreadsheet with a row of $10's, like this

10,10,10,..... the row is 45 long, one for each win I plan Vancouver to have.

So their first game comes along, and I bet them on the moneyline to win $10. If they win it's simple, we cross out the first 10, leaving 44 wins to go. We'll bet to win $10 on their next game.

There's several ways to go if they lose. I don't double down, because a losing streak gets dicey in a hurry, and even the best teams are prone to a bad stretch. Here's 3 suggested methods:

Method 1. "The 5 Game Method" Take the $$ you lost and spread it out over the first five 10's remaining on the spreadsheet. Let's say I had bet $20 to win $10, so I would add $4 to the first five 10's

14, 14, 14, 14, 14, 10, 10,.......

So we bet the next game to win $14. Let's say we win, crossing out the first 14

14, 14, 14, 14, 10, 10, ........

So we bet to win $14 again. Let's say we risk $25 and lose. We add $5 to the first 5 numbers.

19, 19, 19, 19, 15, 10, ......

Method 2. "Modified 5 game method" It makes your five number list a little more front heavy (Two and three game win streaks keep the wagers at very reasonable levels and recoup losses nicely). We'll start at the 14, 14, 14, 14, 14

Let's risk $25 to win the $14, and we lose. Now, instead of adding $5 to each one, we'll cross out the first 14, and add another 10 at the end of our list (we still expect 44 more wins). We have the 25 that we lost, and 4 left over from the crossed out 14, giving us $29 to spread out: I'll go 6, 6, 6, 6, 5:

20, 20, 20, 20, 16, 10, .... is our new list. Next game we risk 30 to win 20, and we lose again. We cross out the first 20, and add a ten at the end once again. We have $40 to spread out now (30 we lost and 10 left over from the crossed out 20), and we'll add 8's

28, 28, 28, 24, 18, 10, ... is our new list. It allows a short winning streak to wipe out more losses than the first method.

Method 3. I have no name for this, other than maybe a modified Martingale? We spread out the losses based on how many losses we've had in a row.

1st loss - Spread losses over next 2 games
2nd loss (in a row) - Spread losses over next three games
3rd loss - Spread losses over next 4 games

And so on.

All three of these, especially the last, can be modified or adjusted based on one's comfort level.

It worked for baseball when picking a team to win 45 or more home games, and betting all home games.

For NHL, you'd bet all games. Now, obviously you'll be paying pretty good juice at home, while not so much on the road (may even be +even money). But, that team should win about 2/3 of those juiced home games, while going about .500 on the road.

Any thoughts, suggestions, etc. are certainly welcome. I've never done this with NHL before, and I am definitely not an expert sportsbetter. I'm a math teacher, so I crunch numbers in my spare time.

I've created a separate bankroll for this, which I can afford to lose if it goes to hell. I'll still be tailing other, well respected posters with their picks in NHL and other sports with my "other" roll (best of luck in NHL D.G. I'm following!)

rkelly110 · 10-06-10, 10:01 AM

Sounds good, are you going to have 10 teams, 45 @ $10 each?

5 teams that won 45 games (for) and 5 teams that lost 45 games? (against)

You could win $4500?

How did baseball go? Did you bet 5 and 5 @ 45 home games each?