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First team to score tracking thread
continues on a discussion from HTT. even though this thread is intended to potentially expose this derivative nhl market as wildly inefficient, i strongly suggest no SBR member places any real money on any of the following:
to score first, odds from fox bet, welcome to PA!!
clb -150
mon +105
chi +130
buf +130
min +100 - math likes this one a lot
van -125
Just edit to say I now see what the heck you were talking about. Found a thread in think tank, etc. My post was off on what you were discussing.
Last edited by hehfest; 01-18-20 at 09:55 PM.
apologies for that Heh, i should have included the link first time around, but felt short on time.
HTT Thread Here
a 6-0 start is a clear sign to shut this ish down as we have exceeded my talent level. end it here and walk away a winner.
still trying to determine strike price, the following were, by my calculations, 15 cents or more off, with NYR being the furthest from my numbers. and need to refine my process before we start firing out bets:
bos +100
chi 111
nyr 118
NOTE OF CAUTION, DO NOT PUT REAL MONEY DOWN YET.
9-0 start... wow why you tell us not to put money lol
Probably because he just figured this out and doesn't want you to lose all the games in one day or something. Dude is looking out for you. Just be happy he is sharing this with us in the first place because he might be on to something.Originally Posted by Menahem777
You may have found something worth taking advantage of. I appreciate you posting your findings but in my honest opinion you should delete this post ASAP. You should message whoever wants the plays (me included), but posting a flaw in their system is going to cause attention. Attention that they may adjust once more and more people take advantage of it.
However, this is a very small sample size.
Last edited by FyouPayMe; 01-20-20 at 07:37 AM.
right, this is where not posting the picks that happened before the official tracking warps impressions. it is indeed a small sample size. the part everyone else missed was the 1-4 start i had, and sat at 5-5 10 games in (this would be the reason all were cautioned to not place down real cash on this thing until we are 60+ plays in, which HEH pointed out). this little 9-0 run was extremely fortunate timing. over all it has hit 11 straight, sitting at 16-5. which is still impressive, but in my mind just as likely to go 2-8 on the next ten. just way to early to draw any conclusions.
official (unofficial) records
9-0 (16-5)
min 105
you can't be serious
i'm not too worried about it. the smart people setting the lines and the smart ones betting into them are using much more complex models than i am. my little probability calc is not going to redefine a market.
for example, i have listed Col listed at -335 to score first, line is actually -212. there will never be a day where a team is favored by 300 to score first. my numbers are getting closer to matching more posted lines, which is a good sign somewhat. when i get one like this though, it is clear my rudimentary approach is lacking something important to produce a line that is 123 cents off.
as we continue to track, and the overall record trends down into the hopefully 53%-55% range, we can start drawing better conclusions as to the merit of my approach.
My fifth grader response would be: "yeah, and we were here first so we still get the picks". There is some truth to his statement. I can recall a friend (who also had a service) and an interesting way of capping. He was very successful and then suddenly the whole rug was pulled out from under him. Whatever he did for decades was crushed.
I really believe he just told too many people his ideas on how to bet and then they told people, etc. Then, there was no more edge. This is still in the early stages and perhaps he will decide some things once it works over a continual period.
Hence why I didn't respond to that comment. If you know, you know.
Being 123 cents off definitely probably means something needs to be added to the mix. However, sometimes in the money line world the line IS off by that much. Detroit was a dog to TB on the road I think TB was near -400 though so maybe this game line is about right....
I'm actually shocked it's that high. It makes for Det a juicy dog value that I may not be able to resist.
Major Line Movement in this game.
Let's hold this lead bayyybayyy
Is this thread more on the goal in the first period?
"OK SBR forum has a strategy....notice to all books, be aware of the plays in EMT's thread, we're going to go broke" come on guys really? This is a red alert to all sports books...lol
Sorry EMT for posting in your productive thread, I won't respond any more to that subject.
you know i'm a fan Oil, you guys just got off on the wrong foot.
we're all in this together. fyoupayme does have a somewhat valid point, that this things could start small and explode. not to Dr. Bob level where he proved successful and then shared his approach in his write-ups, effectively improving the books' lines. let's all play nice fellas.
bos 133 - not a fan of this one
nyr 115
chi 115
phi +105 - huge fan of this one
having posted those and commenting on being a fan, this might prove to be nothing more than a starting point that pulls out some lines worthy of a second look.
EMT is back baby. And we all believe. Hey look, EMT, I'll sign up right now to be part of some sort of team like the MIT blackjack team. You just count me in please.
just thought of this one, potential huge missing piece.
historical H:H data for divisional foes. who gives a crap who scores first when EDM and PIT only play each other twice a year?
but when they play PHI 4 times a year and possibly 11 (although i'd argue playoffs are a different animal and that first goal is raised to being the end all be all so team switch up their play). short of a coaching and/or goaltender change, might be something to consider.
also might want to think about factoring in records when scoring first and when being scored on first...
Whatever Gretzzzzzzsky. Just keep your nose up like you always have (double-double pun intended)
Last edited by hehfest; 01-21-20 at 04:53 PM.
i don't quite envision that level of success.
i just look to find my lane, win a few units and move on.
I started trying to set an actual line based on total points by teams including then also both teams scoring first and opp. scoring on them first. So far, it is a whopping 2-0. With line movement in the Colorado game it actually had me taking Colorado to win but Detroit to score first.
Last edited by hehfest; 01-21-20 at 04:54 PM.
2-0 is a start!
no plays tonight
i should go back and total up the units piece of this thread. good long break to do so.
got 10-4 + 5.92 units for these posted plays. again, no one should wager hard earned dollars until we hit the 60 game. and that's a conservative statement.
also, my approach is always risk one Unit, whether it is a fave or a dog. so -115 fave brings .87 Units.
you'll see the same approach in my 2020 mlb options thread.
Oil, if you're around, i'm thinking that mlb one is going to be a 20 for 20, ripping off espn style. hit that mark, shut it down for the year, but continue to track.
mon +100
ott 118
van +100
sj 125
Ott is the biggest mismatch on the board based on H/A splits, with Ott scoring 1st 58% H and NJ scoring 1st 28% A.
at this point depends on your perspective. you either think NJ will slowly regress to the mean and move closer to the 43% for Away teams, or you think the 28% is an accurate reflection of their ability.
will be fun to watch rest of the season i suppose.
after watching Brown take a double minor leading to NJ scoring first i have very large concern that there is way too much randomness for this to prove profitable.
buf -145
st l and cal is basically a coin flip, but currently sits at blues +100. however, with blues on 2nd of b2b, might just let this one slide unless it climbs to the +110 range
12-6
5.72 U
gosh dang-it, completely forgot to post last night. apologies for that. 3-2 on the night, but since was never posted, will not be included in record. will be tracked as part of my solo efforts and available upon request.
buf +100
nsh line matches my number exactly. the ari line is a bit lower than mine, but still too high to back given the recent rash of early PP goals that have just been killin me. exact reason we need a very large sample size prior to making any real cash moves.
gl
13 - 7
5.72
pit 137
car 120
ott +135
bos 137
edm +100
ana +120
😬 rough night bro. Get back on track today
sho nuff was. CLEAR EXAMPLE OF WHY NO ONE SHOULD BE PLAYING WITH REAL CASH AT THIS POINT.
adding in the prob num, this thing needs seriously refined, but not too much, right? don't want to mimic the line development books are using, then we'd be every bit as flawed. having said that, churning in historical data based on faves and 1st goal.
anyway
nj +120 61%
phi +115 58.5%
win +115 52.1%
ari 125 68.8%
veg +105 54.3%
edm +120 53%
la 120 64.2%
sj +125 58.8%
think it is obvious that i need to work fave and 1st goal in there somehow. tb big favorite to win, winning team scores 1st 67% of the time. but if we are just talking actual H/A splits for this season, tb is good on the road, but sj is even better at home getting that 1st goal.
14-12
1.72
GL
wsh 125
car 137
mon 125
19-15
4.52
20-17
3.32
nyr +105
fla +125
det +135
nyr slightly over league avg, dal under league avg.
fla, tor, phi and det all equally bad in the H/A splits, reducing my probs to a dang near coin flip.
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