Consider betting against Canada winning gold on Pinnacle

[yisman]

Olympic Winter Games Men

Tue 2/23Will Canada Win the Gold Medal? 12:00 PM101 Yes+221 102 No-243 Tue 2/23Will Russia Win the Gold Medal? 12:00 PM103 Yes+322 104 No-360 Tue 2/23Will Sweden Win the Gold Medal? 12:00 PM105 Yes+500 106 No


I think Canada and Russia are about even in terms of talent.

Now consider that even if Canada wins as expected tomorrow, they have to play a back to back against Russia, and Russia will have the advantage of seeing them the previous day.

The odds are out of whack, considering the difficult position Canada is in. Even if they beat both Germany and Russia, they'd likely draw Sweden, and then the Czechs, the Americans, or the Finns.

A parlay of beating: Germany, Russia, Sweden, and the US? +221 is a terrible payoff for that.

[Regul8er]

Not Really yisman. There the most talented country in the world. Why are people seeing this as such an impossible accomplishment?
Sure Canada hasn't played great, but I think last nights game will wake them up. Expect an insane amount of energy and focus. The hometown crowd will lift the boys up.

[yisman]

Did I say it was impossible? Nay, merely unlikely.

Of course Canada can still win gold, but they have to win four games, and three of them will be against elite competition.

You want to bet on that? I wouldn't.

I thought maybe this would be a spot to bet Canada, but wow, they kept the odds way too short.

[Regul8er]

+221 is tremendous value in my opinion. I was thinking around +160 or +170.

When this competition began, Canada was about EVEN at most books. A preliminary round loss causes them to play one additional game vs Germany. In order to win Gold, they would have had to beaten these teams anyways??? +221 is tremendous value yisman.

[yisman]

Incorrect. It's not just the extra game. It's that they got stuck in a brutal bracket.

Had they beaten Team USA, they wouldn't have had to beat Russia and Sweden just to get to the gold medal game.

[PuckOff]

Not Really yisman. There the most talented country in the world. Why are people seeing this as such an impossible accomplishment?
Sure Canada hasn't played great, but I think last nights game will wake them up. Expect an insane amount of energy and focus. The hometown crowd will lift the boys up.

If they couldn't bring their AAA game last night then I have doubts they can bring their AAAAAAA game against the Russians.

[Regul8er]

yisman, I'll explain once more. In order to win the gold medal, you have to beat the best of the best regardless. Whether you have to play Russia in the finals, semis or quarters, you still have to beat them.

yisman, this is how you need look at this. If Canada gets by Germany and Russia, what do you think the odds become?? EVEN, -110, something along those lines. If that's the case, then essentially the books have them as almost 2 to 1 dogs against Russia, because the Germany game is a practice. There is no way Canada is underdog against Russia. Last I checked, Russia hasn't looked too impressive to date.

Like I already said, +221 is a gift from the books. I would recommend taking that gift yisman.

[PuckOff]

I'm Canadian and I don't think we can win a medal right now. I hope I'm wrong, but Canada is just not playing well. Me tinks Iginla and Perry are injured.

[Regul8er]

If they couldn't bring their AAA game last night then I have doubts they can bring their AAAAAAA game against the Russians.

Guys.......we need not focus so much on last nights PRELIMINARY GAME.
It's like saying "oh the Lakers don't have a chance to win the Championship because they lost a regular season game to the Clippers."

World class steps up to the challenge when their backs are on the ropes. I'm very interested to see how Canada responds. I believe with Luongo now between the pipes, Canada will prove to the world once again, that hockey is Canada's sport.

[yisman]

yisman, I'll explain once more. In order to win the gold medal, you have to beat the best of the best regardless.

You keep missing the point.

They have not played well thus far, and now they get handed an extra game as well as a much tougher bracket than they would have had.

Of course they're capable of beating any team. But beating Russia on the backend of a B2B followed by beating Sweden and the US or another top team? How is +221 close to fair value? If Canada reaches the finals, I can assure you that betting them each round would be far, far better than betting them now to win gold.

If they had beaten Team USA, they would have only had to beat one elite team, not three in a row.

Considering that I think it's pretty likely USA will make the finals, I think there's value on them.

[Regul8er]

Puckoff....here is my question to you. If Miller pays average last night, and Canada wins the game 7-4, would you still have the same attitude?

[yisman]

if you're that confident in Team Canada, then like I indicated, put a bunch of money on them winning each game SU.

You can put $2000 on Canada to beat Germany in regulation.

$2100 on them beating Russia (where they might even be slight underdogs), then all of that in the game against Sweden, etc.

[Regul8er]

You keep missing the point.

They have not played well thus far, and now they get handed an extra game as well as a much tougher bracket than they would have had.

Of course they're capable of beating any team. But beating Russia on the backend of a B2B followed by beating Sweden and the US or another top team? How is +221 close to fair value? If Canada reaches the finals, I can assure you that betting them each round would be far, far better than betting them now to win gold.

If they had beaten Team USA, they would have only had to beat one elite team, not three in a row.

Considering that I think it's pretty likely USA will make the finals, I think there's value on them.

Your telling me US will only have to play one elite team to win a Gold Medal???? Assuming US gets past the Swiss in the Q-Finals and make the S-Finals, Finland or Slovakia aren't world class teams?

[PuckOff]

Puckoff....here is my question to you. If Miller pays average last night, and Canada wins the game 7-4, would you still have the same attitude?

Yes I would have the same attitude. Our D of Pronger and Niedermayer are old and slow. In fact only Doughty and Weber are playing well for us. The 2 BHawks are invisible.

Iginlas is injured (not making excuses) and Stall, Bergeron, Moorrow, Perry are invisible.

I know we competed, but we aren;t getting it done. We hardly beat the friggin Swiss for frig sakes.

[Regul8er]

I don't have any money. If I did, I'd be riding Canada's back all the way to the gold.

[yisman]

Your telling me US will only have to play one elite team to win a Gold Medal???? Assuming US gets past the Swiss in the Q-Finals and make the S-Finals, Finland or Slovakia aren't world class teams?

They are not elite teams.

The four elite teams are Canada, Russia, Sweden, and Team USA.

Finland and Slovakia have talent, but they are not "world class" or "elite".

Just look at the odds on them, if you want more proof.

[yisman]

I don't have any money.

Why am I not surprised?


Anyway, I think you'd have to be crazy to bet +221 on Canada considering that they've played poorly this Olympics and they have a tougher road than anyone.

[Regul8er]

I'll agree, Pronger and Niedermayer are struggling a bit.

I do think Stall and Perry have played pretty well. There making alot of noise, just not getting rewarded for the most part. Whats up with Bergeron, I expect much out of him.

[Regul8er]

They are not elite teams.

The four elite teams are Canada, Russia, Sweden, and Team USA.

Finland and Slovakia have talent, but they are not "world class" or "elite".

Just look at the odds on them, if you want more proof.

You don't follow hockey, I get that that's ok, you've shown me with your comments. I know this by you stating USA is elite, and Czech, Slovakia and Finland aren't??

Odds are HEAVILY HEAVILY INFLATED, considering probably 90-95% of the action taken by sportsbooks are Americans. A lot of Americans watched last night, got really excited, think they are the class of the world, and will be dropping wagers. Oddsmakers are laughing right now!

[yisman]

You don't follow hockey, I get that that's ok, you've shown me with your comments.

Thanks for playing.

[yisman]

I'll agree, Pronger and Niedermayer are struggling a bit.

I do think Stall [sic] and Perry have played pretty well. There [sic] making alot [sic] of noise, just not getting rewarded for the most part. Whats [sic] up with Bergeron, I expect much out of him.

It's Staal. Maybe you should try watching once in a while.

But I guess that's expecting too much of someone who hasn't even bothered to learn English before communicating on a messageboard.

[Regul8er]

Your welcome boss. Goodluck with your USA play!

[yisman]

I said I think there's value on them.

I hate betting a team to win a title/medal with several games to go (or more, like betting a team will win the Super Bowl in the preseason). It's typically -EV. But for people who do make these bets, I think betting USA to win and Canada not to win has some value.

[bruceBRUCEbruce]

There the most talented country in the world.

no.

Russia is.

[KingKolzig]

Canada should be +175 to win gold. This is the games they have to win:

Germany -3500
Russia -190
Sweden -325
USA/Czech -350

this +228 line is gravy, USA got dominated and was lucky. Only russia can beat canada without major luck. And they will be about a full goal underdog. ppl dont understand how good this Canada team

[KingKolzig]

and Canada has a significant home advantage over everyone except USA

[yisman]

Canada should be +175 to win gold. This is the games they have to win:

Germany -3500
Russia -190
Sweden -325
USA/Czech -350

Those lines are way off. They will not be -190 against Russia or -325 against Sweden, and you won't be seeing a -350 line in the gold medal game.

more realistically would be something like:

-3000
-130
-175
-225

A parlay on those lines would be +315.

[yisman]

I'll offer a bet to anyone interested:

I'll bet as many points as you want that Canada will not be over -160 ML on Pinnacle vs. Team Russia.

[KingKolzig]

If you make that -150 we have a deal.................for 135 sbr points

[yisman]

compromise: -155

I say Canada won't be over -155


we can send the points to a third party like MexicanStallion, and the winner will get it after the lines are out.

We'll go by the line at noon EST on Wednesday.

[KingKolzig]

-150 was my compromise. and im not familiar with pinnacle. id like to use thegreek at noon wednesday..........and im taking in the most risk that canada goes 3-1 vs germany

[yisman]

-150 was my compromise. and im not familiar with pinnacle. id like to use thegreek at noon wednesday..........and im taking in the most risk that canada goes 3-1 vs germany

3-1?

[KingKolzig]

i mean if canada gets tested by germany then that would seriously effect the line vs russia

[yisman]

right, and I'm risking that Canada looks really good and it inflates the line.

[KingKolzig]

right, and I'm risking that Canada looks really good and it inflates the line.

lol thats true as well. its going to be right around -150 for sure..............so what do you think. ill compromise to pinnacle if you go -150?