Ralphie Halves, week of 12/31

Ralphie Halves · 01-02-10, 01:55 PM

No New Years Day picks. Anyone betting on the outdoor game has balls even bigger than us.

8 min until the Vancouver game, so stats will wait until tomorrow.

VAN -106
PIT -155
WAS -117
COL +119
CHI -135
NJ -117

3 units

Ralphie Halves · 01-03-10, 02:42 PM

Yesterday 4-2, 66%, +5.16 units
Week 6-3, 66%, +5.55 units
Overall 36-18, 66%, +8.04 units

Like the value on the remaining faves today (yes, there's value on CHI at -250)

2 units each

CHI - ml -250
PIT - ml -133
BUF -ml -111

Just about back to where we were at the end of week 1. Whew! % needs to go up though.

GL!

Ralphie Halves · 01-05-10, 03:34 PM

Sunday 2-1, +.6 units
Week 8-4, 66% +6.15 units
Overall 38-19, 66%, +8.64 units

3 units each tonight

WSH -ml -200
PIT - ml -187
NJ - ml -165
VAN - ml -200
DET - ml -115

Chalk heavy again. We know quite a few locals that bet almost all faves, and most of them lose badly. It's all aboot picking the right spots with us, and taking a dog or a total here and there when there's real (not hopeful) value on them. We like these tonight.

Ralphie Halves · 01-06-10, 02:57 PM

Yesterday, 4-1, +3.42 units
Week 12-5, 71% +9.57 units
Overall 42-20, 68%, +12.06 units

BUF - ml -190
COL - ml -160
SJ - ml -220
CGY - ml -102

3 units each.

GL!

Sawyer · 01-06-10, 04:16 PM

It's very to make money on long run with these odds?

Ralphie Halves · 01-06-10, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by Sawyer

It's very to make money on long run with these odds?

Not sure what your question is, looks like you left a word or two out.

What I think you were getting at is whether or not it's profitable long term to bet the way we do. The answer is a definitive "yes", we've been doing it for years and the majority of us now do this full time. A few of us have kept our regular jobs (mostly for the benefits), but we realized long ago that we can make our units high and in turn our returns very profitable because even with the occasional downturn, it's a consistent winning strategy that we employ. Since we've been documenting, it's shown, though not quite at the rate we expect. Part of that was my fault, making every play 1 unit that first week instead of the 2-3 we bet ourselves. Those overall units would be over +20 right now, but we're not going to even worry about that. Over time, you should see how it keeps going up and where we end up after certain periods of time.

Our methods drew some criticism when we first started documenting (and still do in some forums). It's a different approach, and one that people thought would be catastrophic even though they've never tried it themselves. These are the same people that want to come into a thread to get some hot picks for the day, and cash out big. These are textbook losing gamblers. The small % of us that can actually make money off Vegas use a disciplined, strategic approach that takes advantage of the wins, and keeps their losses managable, and doesn't stray from their methods when they string a few bad days together.

We don't do write-ups because we like to keep our methods private, but I will say this much. When you see a hockey line in the -200 to -350 range, it doesn't necessarily make it a bad bet. What makes Vegas their money on NHL, even though they're generally a lot weaker at setting NHL lines compared to football and basketball, is how they keep the public away from very good bets by placing a line that isn't very enticing, and won't produce that bang-for-the-buck instant gratification wad-blow that the squares look for, so they take the side with the lesser value, in many cases the dog. This being said, there isn't always value on the fave either. What takes up most of our day is finding the right spots with the right value, whether it be fave, dog or total. As time has gone on, we've strengthened and streamlined our system to where we just keep getting better and better. We're stupid for not having documented earlier.

I'm not superstitious, but last time I talked us up, we went into the red for a bit, so I'll stop now. BOL everyone!