Islanders sure suck on the road, 9 wins altogether last season, and lost all road games so far during preseason this year. But at what odds are their opponents usually at ML? Maybe a chase system would be a good idea here? Islanders winning three straight games on the road, I think not?
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I'd rather bet NYI +1.5 on the road trip.Originally posted by JosuComment -
exactly, a much better bet imo. And one where youll be paying minimal juice as opposed to playing the big -200 favourite.Originally posted by keyboarding
I do think the isles will suck again this year though, they havnt shown me much of anything, but theyll be priced accordingly.Comment -
Colorado on the road may be another team to fade. I don't know about a chase system but nice spot betting will probably be profitable.Comment -
I don't think betting road teams to lose is a good idea. Home team odds in hockey are pretty awful, and against weak opponents can be a quick way to take some big hits.Comment -
I know it's preseason, but just as an example using last night, 7 games, the road team won 3 outright, 3 were 1 goal losses (covering +1.5). The only loss would have been DET beating PIT 4-1 in DET with no Crosby. Again, I know it's preseason and only one night of data, but just throwing it out there.Comment -
2008-2009:
Fading on ML on road trips of 3 or more games (first 3 games, not including last 3 of a 6-game road series)
Colorado
Nov 12 (lost in game 3)
Dec 1 (lost in game 2)
Dec 15 (lost in game 2)
Feb 7 (lost in game 1)
Feb 20 (lost in game 2)
Mar 14 (lost in game 2) = +6 untis
Chasing the +1.5 PL (on the home team) would have gone to GM 2 only once!
Islanders
Nov 21 (lost in game 1)
Dec 8 (lost in game 1)
Jan 2 (lost in game 1)
March 10 (lost in game 1 = +4 units
Phoenix
Oct 12 (lost in game 2)
Nov 21 (lost in game 1)
Dec 6 (lost in game 1)
Dec 22 (lost in game 1)
Jan 13 (lost in game 1)
Feb 21 (lost in game 2)
March 5 (lost in game 2) = +7 units
Chasing the Reverse Home +1.5 PL would have eliminated some of those GM 2's
Throw in Atlanta and you get much of the same (when using the +1.5 RPL ... never went past a GM2) -- although Atlanta did sweep a 3-game road series on the ML last year. Although, Atlanta might be decievengly better this year.Comment -
NHL.com schedules is the best way to view this in a flash. You can look at results of a single team BY SEASON and quickly break it down to the road trips of 3 or more games.Comment -
That's one of my approaches. Bad teams on the road on the PL are usually good for it. I have a few others I used last year to make solid money.Originally posted by PanekkkkComment -
I meant chasing the Reverse PL on the home team, which would make the odds skyrocket (+1.5 for the Home Team). But still as you can see, with two of the worst road teams you would have reached a GM2 only once (1 year of data only, data mining, retrospective etc. etc.).
Again these stats are based on 3 teams we knew to be terrible last year, but nothing tells me that they won't be terrible this year. Combined, these teams are 1-7-3 on the road in the preseason so far as well.
I'm fairly confident that Col and the NYL will be two of the worst road teams. I'd throw in Phoenix as well. With all their woes they should be decent fade material.Comment -
Made some edits above check them out.Comment -
If you were to combine this with a chase on home teams playing in 3 or more consecutive games at home and chase the +1.5 PL you could probably generate 30 units on the season (start this latter system in Nov to see which teams are performing well at home).Comment -
That's dangerous with those odds. While it makes a world of sense if for whatever reason a road team gets hot or home teams get cold, you could take a beating that would take you the rest of the season to recover from, right?Originally posted by PanekkkkComment -
Of course, that's the risk. One loss would eliminate all profit and then some. I don't like chase systems to begin with, but on the surface this system seems fairly solid. Do you really think the league's worst road teams will win on the road 3 times in a row by more than 2 goals? That to me sounds like an impossibility, one that I would put money on. I don't have the time to go back and check out other years right now, but this of course depends on you "guessing" which teams will be the worst road teams. Last year, this system never went passed a GM2, but you're right that the odds would be astronomical (probably upwards of -500 or more for some of these games) so I doubt I'd actually do this.Originally posted by keyboarding
This year I would propose that Colorado, NY Islanders and Phoenix will be the worst road teams.Comment -
Just tossing this out there as food for thought, ATL and CO should be better than what people presume this season.Comment -
This type of thinking, taking a bad team +1.5 (1') goals against a good team, is worth mining and/or tracking (if not done already). At times the 'good' team will rest a quality player or two, knowing they can/should get by the poorer one(s). Again, just my two cents on the subject.Originally posted by keyboarding
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I mined it from last season, still need to confirm my findings, but taking a "bad" team (TB last year was ideal) on road trips of 3+ games on the +1.5 until they won a game (at which point you stop betting) is profitable.Originally posted by TodaysActionThis type of thinking, taking a bad team +1.5 (1') goals against a good team, is worth mining and/or tracking (if not done already). At times the 'good' team will rest a quality player or two, knowing they can/should get by the poorer one(s). Again, just my two cents on the subject.Comment -
*Ahem* yes it has but I would use caution if just doing this "blind".Originally posted by keyboarding
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Dont Autobet anything = profit...Comment -
I agree with you on Atlanta but I'm not sold on Colorado.Originally posted by TodaysAction
Other teams to keep in mind:
Columbus will be one of the best defensive teams in the league. It's funny that they are rarely in such a discussion but I think heads are finally starting to turn. Over the last few years they have turned Norenna, Leclaire and Mason into apparent all-star goalies. Not to take anything away from Mason, but much talk is being made of their defensive systems. Might be a good under team or solid home team on the ML.
Teams definitely rest good players, particularly goalies when playing supposed weaker teams. Taking the road +1.5 will certainly prove profitable if you can find key times to bet. Too bad goaliepost.com now charges, but much of their information can be found from rotoworld and local media sources.Comment -
the islanders had most of those 9 wins at the end of the season so if you do it all year long and forget the last .25 of the season. but watch them screw you up if you try it this time. no such thing as a n autofade and all that crap. spot betting in nhl can be very profitable.Comment -
Colorado on the road AND at home will be a good team to fade.Originally posted by Panekkkk
They are bottom 3 in the league for sure.Comment -
I'm with all of you on NYI, COL, and PHX being terrible teams. I'll fade them a bit throughout the season.
But that brings a question to my mind..If 2 of these 3 teams face each other, and are doing as bad as presumed, would you guys either lay off it, stay with the +1.5 of one of the teams, or take the favorite?Comment -
Im excited to bet on the the avs on thurs!!!!
See the money pour in on the sharks.Comment -
Top Fav/biggest dog daily data mined for the past two yearsOriginally posted by TodaysActionThis type of thinking, taking a bad team +1.5 (1') goals against a good team, is worth mining and/or tracking (if not done already). At times the 'good' team will rest a quality player or two, knowing they can/should get by the poorer one(s). Again, just my two cents on the subject.
Taking dog at +1.5 is 117-67 in 08/09 and 135-70 in 07/08.
It had a 7 game chase and 2 4 game chases in 07/08.
It had a 6 game chase, 2 5 game and 2 4 games in 08/09.
Not exactly what you are looking for but it does shed some light on how often a bad team on the road covers the +1.5PL against a good home team. About 95%+ top favs were home teams.Comment -
isles had a shitload of injuries a good part of the year....I was surprised even with the inj they played relatively well and actually have some decent young talent...so beware until you see how they start off the year....think they lost already one of their prize talents to injury in the preseasonComment
