22-18
4.92
clb 125
nj +105
nyi 120
veg +125
lak +145
ott 111
st l 133
ari 118
4.92
clb 125
nj +105
nyi 120
veg +125
lak +145
ott 111
st l 133
ari 118
-
Comment -
bob killed me last night with that performance, and Sens failing on a 4 min PP didn't feel too great.
nothing today
27-21
6.9Comment -
fla +100
mtl 137
tb 137
min 118
ari +100
nsh 105
edm 137Comment -
ana +145
32-23
8.94Comment -
wpg 143
clb +115
fla +100
mon +105
st l 143
van 125
32-24
7.94Comment -
36-26
9.29
buf 118
la +120
win 110Comment -
0-3 night capped off with jets giving up 1st goal 15 seconds into the game. painful.
mon 125
phi 120
clb +120
sj 105
36-29 6.29
unofficial tracker (ie the games that never got posted here) is up to 85 games. will report when it hits 100 games this week and wax poetic about possible outcomes drawn.Comment -
nj +105 coin toss
nyi 120 math on ours side, but nervous based on the emotional caps game last night
ari +130 both teams are terrible in this scenario
min +110 another coin toss
dal 125 dallas with a very distinct edge
edm 118 same as above
ana +115 and yet another coin toss
37-32
4.09Comment -
thanks heh, just one of those nights when things went well. we'll have some go the opposite way during our trip.
la +110
van 125
43-32
10.00
be interesting moving forward to see if i just had some lucky timing during a down turn for favorites, or if it is indeed a long term trend, but as it is now, being a favorite is not an indicator of 1st goal success. at least not until we start crossing over the -190 limitComment -
buf +100
fla 118
ott +110
col 120
ana 105
st l +115
44-33
9.80Comment -
the grind is getting to me fellas
not liking these 3 all that much, but math is math
clb 125
pit 143
win 125
that does remind me, i'll probably never play anything at 150 or higher, just too much can go wrong and i'm a conservative bettor by nature.
47-36
9.88
for the season now, including un-posted plays, is 62 - 41. so there just might be something to this thing.
glComment -
The regular season is grind for sure. I attempt not to bet much regular season unless I have to meet a rollover or something and I still had money from playoffs. I sat out over a week, and might play small here and there. I really don't want to bet much until NHL playoffs.Comment -
I had Sj (didn't wager/or post) but didn't post and the Nyr tonite. That was opposite of your picks to score. I'm trying to find some sort of combination that would be close to a lock level....I almost was going to just wait on the Nyr to bet them assuming Clb scores first, etc. but I bet them before game anyway.Comment -
stl 120
min 143 might be favorite play in entire thread...and you know what that means....sharks score 12 seconds in
mon +105
ari +110
nyi +130
48 - 38
8.58
i'll try to circle back later to reply heh, stupid busy saturday. thanks
glComment -
glad my play didn't prevent your play. having written that i have no idea who even won the Rangers game, i usually tune out once i see the 1st goal. hope you cashed. i did see sharks 6-0 though.
reading through your post i think one thing missing is i don't do anything to consider current form, or if a team is trending one way or another. at the same time, i want to avoid handicapping too much beyond the math. reason being that it is clear, to me at least, that the 1st goal wager is a derivative of the game line. for instance, i usually run the numbers the night before the games and i never check the lines first. but seeing caps at 50% 1st G A and 'yotes 62% 1st G H, i already know i'll be playing Ari because caps will be favored to win the game, and thus, favored to score 1st. ari kinda tanking right, losing 12 of 15 or some such nonsense, but i don't care and the math doesn't care.
finally building out even more numbers so i can look to refine the formula over the summer. up to 129 games at this point. so continuing with wsh v ari game, i can say over the last 129 games:
favorites are 64-65 scoring the 1st goal, not much of an indicator as to 1st goal success.
throw in 56% home team scores 1st, and ari higher than this.
so i'm fine with caps being favored, they should be, ari lost 7 of last 8 vs East.
not fine with this automatically making the caps favored to score 1st goal. that first team to score talk is overrated. yes, teams that score first win 67% of the time. however, until i see that broken down across faves, dogs, home, away, etc, it is a meaningless stat. the only stats i care about are actual 1st goal stats:
wsh away 50%
ari home 62%
home teams 56%
underdogs 50%Comment -
friggin jones was a stone wall last night. first SO of the year.
nyr +110
van 125
nj +110
ott +115
50 - 41
7.73Comment -
who is getting nervous and who has just given up? this is why we have yet to bet real money gentlemen
ari 125 - distinct ari advantage
ana +125 - coin flip
sj +110 - very distinct sj advantage
wsh +105 - coin flip
50-45
3.73
how about dem bruins, scoring 1st goal off of trouba's glove on a pin balling puck in front of the net....good timesComment -
added to prob formula today. think it made things worse. if anyone is playing for real money, fukkin stop it. just trying to see what sticks to the wall.
phi 133 - phi real good at home 1st goal, clb slightly under league avg for A
tor +110 - leafs are backwards to every other team, terrible 1st G at home, best 1st G on the road, pens a tick above avg
det +140 - both teams terrible in this situation, darn near coin flip, habs -106 on my formula
nsh 120 - more of a car fade as they are garbage in this situation
la +125 - coin toss, wpg below avg H and LA above avg A
52-47
3.78
favorites are 74-79 1st goal L153 games
GLComment -
col 133
van 120
roasting the wings, ouch.
if the data keeps trending the way it is, i'm just going to start betting every dog to score first, as long as the game line is -180 or lower. those favorites are 59-66 scoring first the L125 games. i keep waiting for that number to trend the other way, hard.
54-50
2.76Comment -
clb 118
nj 118
pit +100
st l 150
tb 110
55-51
2.51Comment -
switched up the formula and numbers coming closer in line with posted. alter one piece and added a piece for home teams. if favorites prove to be an indicator, will consider adding it. still only playing numbers 20 or more cents off what i calculate them at.
bos 125
edm 111
58-53
2.94
going back and forth on rather or not to consider regression to mean in the formula in some fashionComment -
nj +130
phi 133
buf +138
nyr 137
ari +125
fla +135
59-54
2.84Comment -
apologies in advance heh
det +138
min +100
ana +120
la +115
64-55
7.34Comment -
Lol....I'm not betting these yet. You just said days ago don't do it yet. It's your show.
Note: I sure wish I would've last night though.........shoulda, coulda, woulda!Comment -
right on Heh, i just thought you were opposed to even just the principal of supporting the wings.
woulda given most it back last night.
nothing today.
bit of a correction yesterday as every favorite scored first. finally over .500 for the nearly 200 games i've been tracking it.
64-59
3.34Comment -
car 111
mon 125
nyi 125
tor +125
win +135
st l 150
ari 120
ana +115Comment -
la +125
edm +130
68-63
2.79Comment -
mon 120
bos 150
det +138
ott +115
st l 143
sj 125
69-64
3.04Comment -
No. I mean they are a really bad team (Wings). Can't really say they are tanking because they are 20+ points in last place. I watched them in a game last week they don't move their feet which leads them to "reach" with their stick for the player/puck. This means I saw laziness. Bad teams can't afford to have a lazy side to them. It's easy to bag on a bad team I get it, but the effort was clearly lacking.Comment -
exactly everything you wrote is what i witnessed watching the 1st period last night. i took it as clear signs they have packed it in for the season. at the same time, betting against them to score 1st might prove dangerous because one of these games they just might decided to play for pride. bottom line: avoiding games involving detroit the rest of the season.
pretty clear i need to start accounting for the game line, but only when it creeps up into the -150 or higher area. small tweak this off season and we should be ready to roll next year
in the meantime, few more losers to post:
clb 120
phi 137
ana +125 this one i'm ready to put real money on
buf +145 this one makes me nervous only because the road team vs a huge home favorite, but couldn't pass it up
71-68
1.03Comment -
la 120
mon 111
col +105
van +125
buf +130
st l 133
sj +120
73-70
1.73Comment -
nyr +100
clb 125
ana 125
min +105
la +163
77-73
3.18Comment
