Thursday NHL Pick - With Reasoning!

[Vapas]

Hello All,

2015-16 NHL Season Record: 28-31 (all dogs), Avg Wager +134, 11% Return on Total Money at Risk.

Last Night: Buffalo +131 Win
Montreal's free fall continues, even with Condon as the late announced goalie. Sabres showed grit coming from behind in the 3rd and put a boot on the throat of a desperate team.

Thursday:

Anaheim +130
With the Pacific wide open, I see the Ducks surging in the 2nd Half. Since Dec 22, they've been 11-3-2 allowing 1.9 goals per game. This team dramatically improved their season PP/PK rating (already 9.3% above league median) in January, to the tune of an 8.7% upward bump. Their PK was the best in the league in January at 94.9% and is first in the league overall at 89.8. Gibson has won 7 of 10 games with a 1.85 GAA in that stretch, while maintaining a median SV%. They've only faced each other once this season, a very close 3-2 loss. The Kings have seen their PP/PK rating dip 3.35% in January, while having trouble stringing wins together. The Kings head out on a 7 game, 11 day East Coast road trip next Tuesday, so I would expect they are looking forward to the long weekend. The Ducks have a big road trip in front of them too, but they have a game tomorrow against Arizona and leave on Sunday/Monday for a game in Pittsburgh. For what is essentially a home game for both teams, I'm seeing this line as overvaluing the Kings, in what should be a physical battle for who is actually in charge in the Pacific.

Good Luck.

[blackberry_juice]

Great use of stats/ analytics. However, don't assume both teams will feel at home. These games tend to draw roughly 70-75% Kings fans minimum regardless if it's played in LA or Anaheim. Probably a higher % since it's at Staples. I'm a Kings fan so I'm obviously biased, but having been to plenty of these games at both venues that's usually the ratio. That said, you're right about the Kings not playing a consistent brand of hockey lately. I'm personally staying away, but I wish you the best. GKG.

[Vapas]

Very true on fan %. I was looking at both being "home" from the perspective of travel. Good Luck.

[mrginandtonic]

Nice write ups. Think I will have to go against you today. I think the break did the Kings good, and the way that they play against PHO, ( a little rusty at first, then.... ) I don't think the Ducks have a chance tonight. Then, again, this is coming from a Kings fan. GL.

Anyways, I do like a few dogs tonight and see what your thoughts are. Really like Buffalo again tonight, confidence is high and they have won two in a row while the BOS has lost two in a row. Sabres are back home from a short trip and with everyone on Boston, +150 seems very tempting.

Also, like Minnesota, think they are desperate and the Rangers have not been consistent. And I believe Nash is out tonight. Line keeps going down.

And PHI has been playing well lately, beating WAS and killed MON. Think +140 is worth a shot.

Thoughts??

[Vapas]

Fair Enough, that's why they have to drop the puck.

I can tell you why I passed on the three you mentioned:

Buffalo: Back to Back Game with travel between. That's it. I totally agree that they are playing tough and have young, fast talent, but Boston isn't Montreal.
Minnesota: I was tempted on this one, mostly because the Rangers are almost always overvalued, but passed because the Wild have lost 7 of 9 and seen their PP totally tank in January. I'd probably have to see them at +150 or more to consider it, last I looked they were at barely over even money, falling from +130 to start the day.
Philly: Also one that I looked hard at. In the end, the Preds and Rinne have been super stingy with giving up goals (5 in 5 games!) and they seemed really really pissed to lose to the Blues 1-0 last night.

For one reason or another, all three didn't feel like underdogs playing in true 50/50 games.

Good Luck

[mrginandtonic]

Tks for your input. GL to you as well.

[mrginandtonic]

Looks like Quick made a quick exit today.......

[blackberry_juice]

Nice play Vapas. It was clear one team came to play...