NHL Edges - Jan 14

Rich Boy · 01-14-16, 04:08 AM

Car +149
I feel Stl is consistently overvalued at home by books. They have the 5th worst home offense at 2.33 goals/game and a weak +0.08 goal differential/game. Those kinds of stats dont justify a +145/-169 line against a decent Carolina team. +149 feels like good value for this dog, fair price ~+140

Det/Ari OVER 5 -126
Arizona home games average 6.15 goals/game, highest in the NHL. Detroit only averages 4.9 which is why this line is a 5. High probability of a 2-2 game given the moneyline, feels like a no risk wager here. Fair price -135

Rich Boy · 01-14-16, 04:17 AM

Win -113
Nashville is another team I feel is consistently overvalued. Nashville has only won 31.8% of its road games this year and scores only 2 goals/game on the road, good for 3rd worst in the league. Their road defense is also poor giving up 3.18/game. Their goal differential on the road is -1.18/game, 2nd worst in the league. Winnipeg is stout at home scoring 2.89 goals/game with a +0.32 differential. Jets should be at least -125 favorites in this game.

Ari +105
Arizona is playing good hockey right now and are solid at home. They edge Det in home/road differential at +0.35 vs -0.2 goals/game. This could be a tough game for Detroit as they are ending a long road trip and looked gased in the 3rd period against LAK. Getting plus money at home in this game is good value. Fair price at least a pick em, closer to -115

RollinDo · 01-14-16, 08:52 AM

I'm on Carolina +1.5 (-200)...Feel this is a gift to get a goal...possible empty-net, but I like odds for game to be tied in reg. if not Canes with a goal lead.

RollinDo · 01-14-16, 08:54 AM

Any idea why NYR - Isles lune is just -105 for U 5.5?
Would think it should be about -120 to -125.

Jones10 · 01-14-16, 08:56 AM

Originally posted by Rich Boy

Win -113
Nashville is another team I feel is consistently overvalued. Nashville has only won 31.8% of its road games this year and scores only 2 goals/game on the road, good for 3rd worst in the league. Their road defense is also poor giving up 3.18/game. Their goal differential on the road is -1.18/game, 2nd worst in the league. Winnipeg is stout at home scoring 2.89 goals/game with a +0.32 differential. Jets should be at least -125 favorites in this game.

Ari +105
Arizona is playing good hockey right now and are solid at home. They edge Det in home/road differential at +0.35 vs -0.2 goals/game. This could be a tough game for Detroit as they are ending a long road trip and looked gased in the 3rd period against LAK. Getting plus money at home in this game is good value. Fair price at least a pick em, closer to -115

Totally on board with both of these tn

Rich Boy · 01-14-16, 11:53 AM

Originally posted by RollinDo

Any idea why NYR - Isles lune is just -105 for U 5.5?
Would think it should be about -120 to -125.

I agree. And so does the market as the line has dropped. Personally not a fan of NYR unders as I've been burned too many times in the past.

Rich Boy · 01-14-16, 12:17 PM

Edm/SJ UNDER 1.5 1st Period -109
I felt the opening line was correct with UNDER -125, line has come up since then most likely due to square action
These teams are only averaging 5.26 goals/game home/road which is roughly 57% UNDER 5.5 on stats only. I would peg this around 54-55% based on recent play and trends.

BankrollMafia · 01-14-16, 06:57 PM

Goodluck tonight -- i actually took Blues ML in one of my 2 leg parlay, but I ended up tailing Carolina ML just in case the parlay fails heh

slapshot · 01-15-16, 08:13 AM

real solid plays here.