NHL Edges - Jan 11

[Rich Boy]

Bos/NYR OVER 5 -135

Another line I'm surprised didnt open at 5.5
These teams are averaging 5.69 goals/game
Fair price at least -150




YTD: 26-12, +17.02 units

[RollinDo]

Yeah, I see the game Over hitting - will be on the 1P Under though.
Like Bruins to steal this one too, but should be a close one...probably decided in OT.

I'll be on Detroit TT (U 2.5) until quick slows down...and Detroit starts scoring more on the road.

[RollinDo]

Really surpised not many responses to your daily "edges" threads...not many on here to follow and make $.
Your style is not like mine, so it's hard for me to tail if it doesn't align with a lean of mine.

[italianbandit]

Really surpised not many responses to your daily "edges" threads...not many on here to follow and make $.
Your style is not like mine, so it's hard for me to tail if it doesn't align with a lean of mine.

I'm fan of this thread. Great work, Rich, thanks for sharing. Rollin, this is how you want it, low key, smart people around.

Good luck.

[Rich Boy]

Yep that's why I don't post in players talk. Too many squares and degenerates over there. I like to think the hockey section is for sharp players

[Slipknot26]

Nicely done
Fully agree , both top 5 scoring teams
Best of luck to you

[RollinDo]

I'm fan of this thread. Great work, Rich, thanks for sharing. Rollin, this is how you want it, low key, smart people around.

Good luck.

Yeah - I like it like this...and then you've got other threads with lots more traffic for posters who are not doing well...you can count me as one of those not doing well, but just suffering some bad beats lately.

[italianbandit]

Historically, the baseball thread is pretty good too. Some good value players.

[italianbandit]

On the subject of overs, this is a good fast read. Probably old news for some of you but anyway:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nhl-coaches-are-pulling-goalies-earlier-than-ever/

[Rich Boy]

Good read bandit. I looked into the stats of this and found something interesting.

Although coaches are pulling goalies earlier and in 3 goal deficits. Overall goals/game has decreased compared to last year. Despite the NHLs attempts to increase scoring

[Rich Boy]

I think the new coaching strategy provides excellent live betting opportunities. For example most 2-2 games after 2 periods have OVER 5.5 priced between -135 and -160 (for average/low total games). While 3-1 games are priced slightly lower. I find 3-1 games might provide excellent value betting over given 2 factors.

1. Game pace will be higher than a 2-2 game. More chances taken by the team losing instead of 2 teams "coasting" to an extra point.

2. Any 1 goal scored likely results in an empty net situation depending on the coach and 4-1 empty net is usually much sooner than 3-2

Just my 2 cents

[italianbandit]

Glad you liked it. It's interesting that scoring has actually decreased. I'll keep me eye out for those 3-1 spots. In general, I've found live betting (across many sports) to be very profitable. If you are disciplined, have pre game positions, and watch the game, there often arises many positive EV opportunities. Frankly, it's not very efficient-- hence the limits.

[italianbandit]

Yeah - I like it like this...and then you've got other threads with lots more traffic for posters who are not doing well...you can count me as one of those not doing well, but just suffering some bad beats lately.

I've always found playing less plays during downward turns helps. Good luck moving forward.

[whareouttogetme]

Glad you liked it. It's interesting that scoring has actually decreased. I'll keep me eye out for those 3-1 spots. In general, I've found live betting (across many sports) to be very profitable. If you are disciplined, have pre game positions, and watch the game, there often arises many positive EV opportunities. Frankly, it's not very efficient-- hence the limits.

Yeah live betting football and hockey usually works out pretty nicely for me. Not Basketball though, I find it way too unpredictable.

[Hudini]

Lots of people track this thread. I was thinking on VAN game under 5,5

[larco15]

YTD: 26-12, +17.02 units

Excellent result.

[juicername]

No love for the Flames today?

[Rich Boy]

No love for the Flames today?

I think they might have some value at the current price of +110. Will look into it further.

[briancosart]

I'm on the Flames +105 at home, Sharks will be brought down to earth after that 7-0 win.

[whareouttogetme]

I think the over is the best bet in the flames sharks game

[RollinDo]

I'm on the Flames +105 at home, Sharks will be brought down to earth after that 7-0 win.

Not sure what to think of Sharks...they play much tougher on the road.
Gonna play it safer with the Under 5.5 since I'm undecided on the side...Sharks stingy on the road and Calgary has been hitting Unders consistently at home.

[Rich Boy]

Cal line seems pretty sharp to me. I wouldnt have them favored in this matchup. Would want at least +120 to lay Calgary at the moment.

[Rich Boy]

Det +0.5 in regulation +116

This line felt a bit high when it opened and has moved even more. I feel comfortable in Detroit being able to keep this game tight and should be low scoring.

Kings have been held to 2 goals or less in the past 4 games and only scored once against the lowly Blues after playing back to back.
Getting plus money for this wager especially at +116 feels like a bargain. Fair odds around +105 IMO

[RollinDo]

Det +0.5 in regulation +116

This line felt a bit high when it opened and has moved even more. I feel comfortable in Detroit being able to keep this game tight and should be low scoring.

Kings have been held to 2 goals or less in the past 4 games and only scored once against the lowly Blues after playing back to back.
Getting plus money for this wager especially at +116 feels like a bargain. Fair odds around +105 IMO

I sure wouldn't mess with going against Detroit the way they've shown up on the road. I kind of like this.
I know it's juicy, but I have Detroit TT (U 2.5) @ -160.
It could be 1-1 or 2-2 at end of regulation.

I know people here would not do this, but Detroit +2.5 is at just -340...I would play it, but just slightly worried that on a b2b with Kings off a loss could be dangerous if it's like 2-0 or 3-1 late...though I don't see that happening, but would hate to lose with that juice.
Blues were playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and ended up tying LAK last game.

[BankrollMafia]

Im seeing detroit in regulation for +295. Am i looking at something wrong. You are taking detroit to win in regulation am i right ?

[Rich Boy]

That would be Detroit -0.5 in regulation.
I'm taking Det +0.5 so Detroit or draw in regulation

[Rich Boy]

Fla/Van UNDER 5.5 -191

Not a fan of under 5 lines so I will pay the juice on this game. I like Luongo and Markstrom playing their former teams and Fla playing back to back road games. Should be a low scoring game.

[mrginandtonic]

I think they might have some value at the current price of +110. Will look into it further.

Just want to say thank you for helping us out. Any insight in this Sharks/Calgary game?? Line has to move so much that SJS is -121 now. I see quite a few posters here liking CAL. Personally I am leaning SJS. But the line is over what I would play. What's your take?

[Rich Boy]

Just want to say thank you for helping us out. Any insight in this Sharks/Calgary game?? Line has to move so much that SJS is -121 now. I see quite a few posters here liking CAL. Personally I am leaning SJS. But the line is over what I would play. What's your take?

Line looks correct to me. Wouldnt back Calgary unless I was getting +120 or better like I mentioned. Staying away from this game.

[RollinDo]

Line looks correct to me. Wouldnt back Calgary unless I was getting +120 or better like I mentioned. Staying away from this game.

Agreed...only thing I feel halfway comfy with is Under 5.5, but who knows - maybe empty netter bumps it to 6.

[Rich Boy]

SJ/Cal OVER 5.5 +117

Have been watching this line since it opened and has dropped down more than I thought. +117 is too good a price to pass up for 2 teams averaging 5.74 goals/game (home/road) and 5.59/game overall good for ~50% OVER 5.5

Factor in that Calgary has played more unders of late and I feel it could be a bit lower but the current price justifies this play.

[doubledime]

RB

Like the Bost over and could make a case for all 3. GL on your card tonight.

DD

[Slipknot26]

Good luck to you
Very good detail and info

[BankrollMafia]

Darn, looks like the Bruins/Rangers game going under...

[Rich Boy]

Yep not looking good. Oh well can't win em all...