Rangers @ Blackhawks (-165)

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  • ploben
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 01-09-09
    • 527

    #1
    Rangers @ Blackhawks (-165)
    This game grabbed my attention right away when I saw the line this morning at -165 (Bookmaker). On paper these 2 teams looks almost identical. Taking a closer look I think there is value taking CHI tonight.

    NYR:
    13-9 on the road scoring 2.7 goals/game.
    CHI:
    14-6 @ home scoring 4.0 goals/game.

    NYR:
    Goalie SV% on the road; 91.7% (Lundqvist) & 91.8% (Valiquette)
    CHI:
    Both starting goalies have home SV% better than 91%.
    94% (Khabibulin) & 92% (Huet)

    NYR:
    Opp. team power ranking: 2.97
    CHI:
    Opp. team power ranking: 3.24

    NYR has 56pts and CHI has 55pts. Seems to me that the Rangers' record might be a little inflated to the fact that they haven't been challenged, compared to the Blackhawks schedule.

    I like CHI -165. What do you think?
  • BuffaloBettor
    SBR Sharp
    • 12-15-08
    • 445

    #2
    I bet the over 5.5. The Black Hawks @ home can score some goals...I think it will be a 4 (maybe 5)-2 Chicago win. GL on your wager!!
    Comment
    • ploben
      SBR Wise Guy
      • 01-09-09
      • 527

      #3
      CHI ML moved to -170
      Comment
      • POTVINSUX
        SBR MVP
        • 10-14-08
        • 2423

        #4
        I'm all over NYR+140
        Comment
        • ploben
          SBR Wise Guy
          • 01-09-09
          • 527

          #5
          Originally posted by POTVINSUX
          I'm all over NYR+140
          Any reason why?
          Comment
          • element1286
            Restricted User
            • 02-25-08
            • 3370

            #6
            Good value on Chicago.
            Comment
            • TheBud
              SBR Rookie
              • 06-28-08
              • 14

              #7
              I really like Chitown on the puckline tonight... I know I know I don't ever take PL's either...

              but...

              CHI 24-17 ATS... NYR is 18-27 ATS...

              CHI 16-4 ATS at home...



              Chicago as a home fav 3.94 goals for avg. 1.67 goals against avg.... that ='s alotta 2 goal wins mang
              Comment
              • ploben
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 01-09-09
                • 527

                #8
                Originally posted by TheBud
                I really like Chitown on the puckline tonight... I know I know I don't ever take PL's either...

                but...

                CHI 24-17 ATS... NYR is 18-27 ATS...

                CHI 16-4 ATS at home...



                Chicago as a home fav 3.94 goals for avg. 1.67 goals against avg.... that ='s alotta 2 goal wins mang
                I do agree with CHI winning but NYR are 26-19 ATS this season. I don't think there is any value in the PL in this game.
                Comment
                • rawkstarr
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 10-14-08
                  • 387

                  #9
                  Chicago will SMOKE the Rangers tonight at home. Not sure about the over/under 5.5 , both goalies, when tested, can be red hot. Chitown's Kane, Toewes will light the lamp tonight and prove to be too much for the Rangers D.
                  Comment
                  • TheBud
                    SBR Rookie
                    • 06-28-08
                    • 14

                    #10
                    ATS Records

                    NY RANGERS Overall 18-27
                    Home 5-19
                    Away 13-8

                    Thats a major conflict in numbers...whats your source?
                    Comment
                    • ploben
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 01-09-09
                      • 527

                      #11
                      Statfox.com...

                      Something doesn't seem right. Still like CHI ML.

                      What site you getting it from?
                      Comment
                      • ploben
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 01-09-09
                        • 527

                        #12
                        I think I am getting bad data on the ATS record. 26-19-4 is their SU record.

                        EDIT: covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nhl/matchups/g2_atsoverall_15.html

                        I am clearly getting bad data on ATS records and I appologize.

                        NYI do have trouble covering but @ only +180 this is waaay lower than it should be. Take a look at every other NHL fav. tonight giving -1.5 and none of them are below +210.
                        Comment
                        • TheBud
                          SBR Rookie
                          • 06-28-08
                          • 14

                          #13
                          I was just about to say that I was getting bad data from "blankets" I went back thru the sched and added the numbers for Rangers ATS quickly I came up with 15W-30L ATS I think what I posted is the correct ATS record for NYR tho... at 18-27
                          Comment
                          • BigTuna
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 12-08-08
                            • 640

                            #14
                            Hawks play well at home and usually score goals in bunches.... however, Duncan Keith might be out due to a concussion he suffered agains buffalo on Wed. He leads the Hawks defense in minutes and should be an all star.... but anyway... The hawks played with a lot of passion against Buffalo after hit on Keith in the 2nd Period on Wednesday. Can the defense step up again if he is out with the same passion???
                            Comment
                            • BigTuna
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 12-08-08
                              • 640

                              #15
                              FYI, Chicago Radio just reported DUNCAN KEITH IS OUT....
                              Comment
                              • ploben
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 01-09-09
                                • 527

                                #16
                                Keith is not expected to play tonight but I don't see this hurting CHI.

                                3-2 CHI. NYR will score a late 3rd period goal to pull within 1. 4-2 if CHI gets an empty netter.
                                Comment
                                • TheBud
                                  SBR Rookie
                                  • 06-28-08
                                  • 14

                                  #17
                                  Damn that hurts the Chitown D forsure, hope they step it up tonight....

                                  Rangers 11 of 15 losses have been by more than a goal.... BUT...

                                  Just noticed Rangers have only lost one game as a dog by more than one goal.....

                                  ohwell hoping for Hawks to pound em tonight...
                                  Comment
                                  • ploben
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 01-09-09
                                    • 527

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by TheBud
                                    Damn that hurts the Chitown D forsure, hope they step it up tonight....

                                    Rangers 11 of 15 losses have been by more than a goal.... BUT...

                                    Just noticed Rangers have only lost one game as a dog by more than one goal.....

                                    ohwell hoping for Hawks to pound em tonight...
                                    You already lock in the PL?
                                    Comment
                                    • BigTuna
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 12-08-08
                                      • 640

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by ploben
                                      Keith is not expected to play tonight but I don't see this hurting CHI.

                                      3-2 CHI. NYR will score a late 3rd period goal to pull within 1. 4-2 if CHI gets an empty netter.

                                      The do have a lot of guys like Wisnewksi and Burrish to step up..... hmmmm.... Keith is the heart of defense though!

                                      I am torn on something that was a sure bet earlier
                                      Comment
                                      • TheBud
                                        SBR Rookie
                                        • 06-28-08
                                        • 14

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by ploben
                                        You already lock in the PL?
                                        Yes +186 7 Units... I never do PL's and am sure I'll be reminded why tonight...

                                        I'm rather new here, been at many other sites for a while now but do not like any of their NHL Forums...
                                        Comment
                                        • ploben
                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                          • 01-09-09
                                          • 527

                                          #21
                                          I got burned by the BOS PL last night. I will almost never play them again. Just too many factors that can screw the PL.
                                          Comment
                                          • ploben
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 01-09-09
                                            • 527

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by BigTuna
                                            The do have a lot of guys like Wisnewksi and Burrish to step up..... hmmmm.... Keith is the heart of defense though!

                                            I am torn on something that was a sure bet earlier
                                            I feel like it might not be as good as a value as before. These lines makers are pros so they might have seen this coming and set the line low because of this news.

                                            What still grabs me about this play is Vegas set the PL way to low for CHI and -170 seems like a lot of chalk for 2 good teams in the NHL. It's like the want NYR money, enticing people to play the NYR to trap them.

                                            I think the value has deflated a bit but still is a good play. Scale of 1 to 10 this morning on value was an 8.5, now more like a 6.5. Still above avg. value.

                                            Plus the fact I can't flip-flop on my play. That would be cowardly
                                            Comment
                                            • POTVINSUX
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 10-14-08
                                              • 2423

                                              #23
                                              Ploben i like the value on NYR. Only meeting this yr. NYR won 4-2 at the Garden. The Rangers D has been great the last few games. King Henrik has picked up his game and he'll be playing at top notch tonight fellas. Although there PP has been awful i look for them to get in going. Eighteen of the players fathers will also be making this trip to Chi-town to watch there boys. Rangers win 3-2
                                              Comment
                                              • BuffaloBettor
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 12-15-08
                                                • 445

                                                #24
                                                With Duncan Keith out, my OVER 5.5 (+110) looks like a lock!!...GL everyone...
                                                Comment
                                                • ploben
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 01-09-09
                                                  • 527

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by POTVINSUX
                                                  Ploben i like the value on NYR. Only meeting this yr. NYR won 4-2 at the Garden. The Rangers D has been great the last few games. King Henrik has picked up his game and he'll be playing at top notch tonight fellas. Although there PP has been awful i look for them to get in going. Eighteen of the players fathers will also be making this trip to Chi-town to watch there boys. Rangers win 3-2
                                                  We wouldn't be a little biased would we? I checked out your SBR page

                                                  I respect your post but I just can't agree with you on the "value" of the NYR ML. I am sure you would like to see them win and they very well might win but @+155 I don't think you are getting paid enough if they do win.

                                                  I might just put a small bet on the tie @ +315

                                                  UPDATE: The line just went to CHI ML -175 while I was posting this.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • POTVINSUX
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 10-14-08
                                                    • 2423

                                                    #26
                                                    Iv'e watched every NYR gm past 15 yrs. Maybe missed a few. Biased? Yes, you could say so. It's not going to sway your bet as youv'e said you already placed it. On the other hand maybe you should. BOL man. In my eyes Rangers win. Thank me later.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ploben
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 01-09-09
                                                      • 527

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by POTVINSUX
                                                      Iv'e watched every NYR gm past 15 yrs. Maybe missed a few. Biased? Yes, you could say so. It's not going to sway your bet as youv'e said you already placed it. On the other hand maybe you should. BOL man. In my eyes Rangers win. Thank me later.
                                                      If they win I won't be thanking you, I will be cursing your name up and down for losing the bet lol...obviously kidding.

                                                      I wish we could both win, alas, impossible. I think this game will be closer then it was this morning...if that makes any sense.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Euphoria38
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 09-04-08
                                                        • 1188

                                                        #28
                                                        Problem with the rangers is this: they cant score, and they have one of the worst PP i have ever seen. The hawks can and will score goals. Hawks going for 3 in a row. LETS GO HAWKS!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • TheBud
                                                          SBR Rookie
                                                          • 06-28-08
                                                          • 14

                                                          #29
                                                          Five 5-on-3's for the Hawks and they lose..

                                                          Unders went 5-1 tonight.. loving the overs tomorrow
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Hip Hip Huet
                                                            SBR Rookie
                                                            • 01-14-09
                                                            • 12

                                                            #30
                                                            Curse Drury and his clutchness
                                                            Comment
                                                            • ploben
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 01-09-09
                                                              • 527

                                                              #31
                                                              Just like BOS, they did not take advantage of their oppertunities. The Bruins happened to pull out a win but CHI could not hold on.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • POTVINSUX
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 10-14-08
                                                                • 2423

                                                                #32
                                                                Wow the NHL really needs to consider sitting those refs for good. Like i said 3-2 NYR win.
                                                                Comment
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