My Hockey Formula

[DennisGreen]

So I have developed a formula to pick the winners in NHL games. Not sure how accurate it will be, but will share it with you guys. Anyways, I use 10 categories in which 1 point max is awarded to one of the two teams competing. So for each category for example, offence is a category, I award either EV (which is a tie), 0.5, or 1 point to a team. I repeat this for the 10 categories.

Anyways I did this for the for games tonight and this is what it looks like:

VAN @ MIN Line: MIN 4.5
EDM @ LA Line: LA 2
COL @ DAL Line: COL 2
CAL @ STL Line: CAL 1

So according to my formula, Minnesota over Vancouver should be the play of the day. (As a Canucks fan this sucks to know lol)

Anyways I'll keep a running tally and see how this system works.

[demize21]

BOL

[HabsAllDaWay]

not too sure of the system...
maybe add some points for the home team also...
i'm curious to see how it works out!

[losturmarbles]

maybe rate the team using a scale of 1-5 or 1-10 in each category, then add up numbers
then team A will have a total and team B will have a total
and using the difference, come up with a % chance each team has of winning and convert that to a moneyline number.
then you can compare what you capped the game at compared to the market line and find your value.

[DennisGreen]

Here is the template and 10 scoring categories I used. Let me know what you guys think, what is good and what is missing etc.

[MAKAVELI 96]

a lot of those stats that you have there heavily depend on the type of teams a particular team has played in the past ... you have to account for the strength of the opposition that a team has beaten or lost to ..

a really simple way to do this is to look at the power rankings on statfox and looking at what category of opposition a team has beaten ... you have your top tier NHL group with teams like sj, boston, detroit, pitt, etc ... you have the bottom feeders like tbay, atl, nyi, carolina, etc ... and then you have the middle of the pack teams like was, clb, nsh, ott, etc ...

[DennisGreen]

That is true, good point Makaveli. The system should be more accurate once the season is half way in so that would explain the inaccuracy of it right now. Cool site, I've never heard of that. Thanks

[DennisGreen]

Formula goes 1-3 in it's debut.


Only had time to do a few for tomorrow here they are:

EDM/SJ SJ 6.5
BOS/FLA BOS 4
NJ/MTL MTL 3.5
MIN/NAS MIN 3.5
PIT/OTT OTT 0.5

The Pens/Sens is too close to call. I'd personally go with the Pens in this one.

[EmceeDusty]

Formula goes 1-3 in it's debut.

You are who we thought you were.

[element1286]

Creating power rankings is a good idea. When you get enough data you will be able to set your own lines.

I have found Goal differential to be a very critical stat.

[losturmarbles]

You are who we thought you were.

classic

[DennisGreen]

classic

LOL yeah that's my buddy. He used that line when he beat me in fantasy football non-stop and it pissed me off bad. Once I saw where he got that stupid quote from I loved Dennis Green.