Originally Posted by
Art Vandeleigh
Instead of spending so much time writing here, why don't you take an hour or so and conduct a straightforward, super simple simulation.
Give yourself a mythical bankroll of $10,000.
Take a coin.
Call heads or tails.
Flip coin. Bet 1% of your original bankroll, i.e. $100.
If you call it correctly, add $110 to your bankroll.
If you are incorrect, subtract $100.
Do this 100 times. See what your bankroll is after 100 flips
Now do it again. This time, before each flip, use the Kelly calculator to calculate what your optimal bet size is (actually since advantage is the same on each flip you just need to multiply this Kelly percentage times your bankroll size before each flip).
Do this, meticulously, for 100 flips (subtract what you bet if you lose, add 1.1 times your bet if you win).
See what you get at the end of this trial.
Repeat this trial 5 times.
Then come back here and report your findings.