anybody knows the math on soccer?

[Dark Horse]

Soccer requires plenty of math if you play futures. I always find that the most fun during the Euro and World Cup.

The action on the pitch is mostly about matchups. You need to know the teams. This is different than spread betting in American sports, where you can let your numbers zero in on the spread. Possible exceptions are sports/leagues where the line is not sharp, such as college football (especially first few weeks). No coincidence that deep knowledge of college teams is a big key there. In the NFL, where lines are very sharp, you don't really need to know the teams. Whatever special knowledge is available about the teams is already translated into the spread. But because the spread is so sharp, your numbers can 'bounce off' it in a more reliable way. Interesting dynamic, when you think about it.

For soccer totals I've focused in the past on the 1H, specifically O/U 1 goal in low scoring leagues. That results in a lot of pushes, but it gives you an extra cushion - against errors. Errors play a big role in soccer, as they do in football, and therefore luck factors in more heavily in the short term (unless you can predict errors). By comparison errors play a far smaller role in, for instance, baseball. And I believe baseball is the undisputed king of math-based approaches. As Cruyff said: 'soccer is a game of errors, and the team that makes the fewest wins the game.'

[Pokerjoe]

You guys are still confusing the math of choosing between bet offers, which is what OP asked, and the math of rating teams.

Whether to bet a team on the 3-way line, or +.5 goals with ML of x, +.75 goals with moneyline of y, or +1 goal with moneyline of z, is a MATH question.

And not a hard one: OP, there's a free soccer-odds database somewhere on the internet from which, with a little work, you can set up an excel sheet that will judge between bet-types on a game's offers.

I agree that soccer is un-baseball, but that isn't what the OP was asking about.

[subs]

how accurate do u think pinny's drop downs are? i use them often... which got me thinking...

i wonder if its possible that they could they be leaning with the vig 1 way on the ML and another on the AH because of historical betting patterns?

some1 probably knows the answer?

[blackf1re]

You guys are still confusing the math of choosing between bet offers, which is what OP asked, and the math of rating teams.

Whether to bet a team on the 3-way line, or +.5 goals with ML of x, +.75 goals with moneyline of y, or +1 goal with moneyline of z, is a MATH question.

I posted a link in my first post which answers all that.

[CHUBNUT]

I posted a link in my first post which answers all that.

are'nt those figures related to the specific total printed eg supremacy 0 total 2.31. a total of 2.7 would give a different set of prices.

[Pokerjoe]

If you see a +EV opportunity (based on information that is available RIGHT NOW) you take it. Who cares if the line moves against you or in your favour (you seem to ignore that possibility btw)?

The BTCL guys are crazy results-oriented around here, and won't understand your point, but I agree with you (seriously, they say things like "if the line moves against you after you bet, you're wrong no matter how the game turns out; and they think they're being the opposite of results-oriented with that thinking, too).

Anyway, now that I've seen the chart, I wish I had my old excel soccer sheet to compare it. And I still think OP should do his own work rather than rely on anyone else's, and an excel sheet seems easier to me to use. It hardly takes anything more than getting the frequency of a game falling on 1 goal win for the fave in games in which a team is favored by about that. Then some algebra.

Still a useful chart if the work behind it is solid. But the totals themselves can't work right there. I think at best it would show you how to adjust your totals by the game disparity. Soccer totals are very sensitive to disparity between the teams.

Thanks for the link.

[subs]

http://www.onlinecasinohelp.com/compare2.htm

Read it like that: If SBObet's no-vig line (which we assume is the sharp line most of the time) in the AH -1 market is 2.11 then the same team should be 1.65 to win the game. So if you can get 1.75 for that at some Euro bookmaker you have a value bet. AH and totals are linked (for example if the favourite gets backed then then more goals are expected in the game) but you should only use this as a rough guide as many factors are ignored e.g one team always sits back after taking the lead whereas another team completely collapses once they concede.

It's useful for determining all the derivatives from the Asian lines, though. For example a goal supremacy of 0.9 and a total of 2.72 means that team A is expected to score 1.81 goals and team B 0.91 goals. With poisson distribution you can then calculate how likely team A is to score a certain amount of goals and therefore all correct score as well as all over/under markets.

thanks

[Dark Horse]

Compared to American sports soccer stats are very undeveloped.

'Time of possession, corners, shots on goal'. lol There is a way to break down the sport into far more detail. For instance, time of possession on opponent's half, number of 'final' passes that put a player one-on-one before the goalie, number of quality chances (even if not resulting in a shot) and quality shots, fast breaks, and so on. We could even start it out here. Agree on a grid of factors, and spread the word so that recording of games follows that grid. Plenty of people watching soccer, so an army of observers is not the problem. You want to get it to a point where you can read an upcoming game from the stats, similar to horse racing.

[pavyracer]

The way I see it in soccer totals when I cap a soccer game, the game is either going to have 2 goals or less if I capped the game as under or 3 goals or more if I capped the game as over. So for under I prefer to take the U2 line that pays +odds and take the over 3 line that also pays + odds. There is no advantage of taking any line between 2 and 3 and paying juice. This is of course in terms of the whole year betting more than 250 games at least (long term).

[durito]

You are still paying juice when you bet at +120

[CHUBNUT]

Compared to American sports soccer stats are very undeveloped.

'Time of possession, corners, shots on goal'. lol There is a way to break down the sport into far more detail. For instance, time of possession on opponent's half, number of 'final' passes that put a player one-on-one before the goalie, number of quality chances (even if not resulting in a shot) and quality shots, fast breaks, and so on. We could even start it out here. Agree on a grid of factors, and spread the word so that recording of games follows that grid. Plenty of people watching soccer, so an army of observers is not the problem. You want to get it to a point where you can read an upcoming game from the stats, similar to horse racing.

If you dont understand soccer just admit it rather than post nonsense like time of possession.

[CHUBNUT]

You are still paying juice when you bet at +120

Sorry amigo he isnt. While the vig is normally on the dog in other sports, books tend to put it on the fav in soccer totals

[That Foreign Guy]

There is no need to place a bet 2 days ahead of time just because it looks too good to be true. There is huge line movement in soccer in the 45 minutes before kick off. And it has nothing to do with stats. If you don't understand the importance of starting line-ups, formations and coache's tactics before kickoff you shouldn't be betting lines that are too good to be true 2 days ahead of kickoff in soccer.

Um, really?

Let's say today you find Arsenal as a +300 dog at home to Swansea next week. You really don't think that's worth betting?

[wiffle]

Sorry amigo he isnt. While the vig is normally on the dog in other sports, books tend to put it on the fav in soccer totals

lolwat

[blackf1re]

lolwat

I was about to write a lengthy response but 'lolwat' captures perfectly my first, second and even last thought on his post so let's leave it at that.

[CHUBNUT]

I was about to write a lengthy response but 'lolwat' captures perfectly my first, second and even last thought on his post so let's leave it at that.

I'm sure you have nothing else to do so enlighten me.

[Sawyer]

There were good points about live soccer betting in Justin7's book btw. (Conquering risk)

[durito]

Sorry amigo he isnt. While the vig is normally on the dog in other sports, books tend to put it on the fav in soccer totals

Books know the fair line of every game or just the totals?

[pavyracer]

Well if you are betting a line +120 U2 and U2.5 line at -150 (assuming these were the actual lines for a particular game) and the game has 3 goals or more if you take the +120 line you lose 1 unit but if you take the -150 you lose 1.5 units so you paid extra juice for a losing bet that would have lost with either line. So by betting the juicy -150 line you risk more and in the span of a year or 250 games it adds up.

Also if the game ends up with just one goal you won 1.2 units with U2 +120 but only 1 unit with U2.5 -150.

[CHUBNUT]

Books know the fair line of every game or just the totals?

I'm saying I agree with pavyracers points and you are wrong about the vig.

[Pokerjoe]

For those laughing at Chubnut here: say you have a clientele which will overwhelming bet the fave, and without much regard for the price.

You (or the market) make the fair line +120. You'll be dealing a 20 cent spread.

What do you make the line?

You wouldn't even consider making it +120/-140?

And if you did, wouldn't it be fair to say the dog bettor isn't paying the juice?

On any game, the vig-free line is somewhere between the (broadly-accessible) market's highest dog and lowest fave prices. But to say where it is, in that width, is a little pompous, and to deny that it might be closer to the bottom, and maybe even at the bottom, is to deny marketplace realities.

[durito]

He isn´t saying it might be close to the bottom. He is saying it is at the bottom on every game.

[CHUBNUT]

Thank you pokerjoe for explaining. with 8500 shops in the UK the larger books like ladbrokes know exactly what they're going to get, Liverpool and Newcastle are especially the case and there's no point in them moving the odds. All this puts pressure on the asian books even when they are possibly taking more cash in on a game. As pointed out here constantly, European books do not take big bets from anyone other than squares so its not as if they can be pressed into changing their minds.

[pavyracer]

On major soccer teams the juice is adjusted to favor the square play on totals. This is a well known fact.

[skrtelfan]

Math is hard let's go shopping.