Calculating Edge in 3-way Soccer lines

**whatagoal1** · 03-21-11, 06:21 PM

look at it this way lets say all 3 outcomes had equal chance so odds are +200 +200 +200 with no vig

I think what chubnut is saying is that books would offer +175 +175 (+200 draw)

because the books expect stakes to be split perhaps 40% 40% and only maybe (20% the draw)

**CHUBNUT** · 03-22-11, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by whatagoal1

look at it this way lets say all 3 outcomes had equal chance so odds are +200 +200 +200 with no vig

I think what chubnut is saying is that books would offer +175 +175 (+200 draw)

because the books expect stakes to be split perhaps 40% 40% and only maybe (20% the draw)

thats exactly it when dealing with an asian line of pick. It has to be remembered that old fashioned bookmaking which is still alive in britain with the big multiples always had the vig on home and away teams and had the draw as their clean out result. With sharper bettors and competative books, the interest on the draw odds has vastly risen where the asian h'cap involves it.

I didnt realize these games arent being played this weekend but i'll carry on when theyre due.

**sharpcat** · 03-22-11, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by CHUBNUT

thats exactly it when dealing with an asian line of pick. It has to be remembered that old fashioned bookmaking which is still alive in britain with the big multiples always had the vig on home and away teams and had the draw as their clean out result. With sharper bettors and competative books, the interest on the draw odds has vastly risen where the asian h'cap involves it.

I didnt realize these games arent being played this weekend but i'll carry on when theyre due.

This is the worst theory I have ever heard in my life

Do you have historical data to support this nonsense?

**whatagoal1** · 03-22-11, 11:41 AM

it may be "worst theory I have ever heard in my life", it is also true

If you want to check the theory study the 3 way corner markets on a euro soccer match, the stats will show that the odds for the exact will be very close to no vig and the bookies will take the vig off of people betting on the over, and to a lesser extent the unders.

**donjuan** · 03-22-11, 12:15 PM

Originally posted by whatagoal1

it may be "worst theory I have ever heard in my life", it is also true

If you want to check the theory study the 3 way corner markets on a euro soccer match, the stats will show that the odds for the exact will be very close to no vig and the bookies will take the vig off of people betting on the over, and to a lesser extent the unders.

This thread isn't about obscure markets like corners.

**donjuan** · 03-22-11, 12:18 PM

Here's a line for Saturday:

West Ham United +0.5 +108
Manchester United -0.5 -117

West Ham United +375
Manchester United -117
Draw +270

Feel free to explain CHUBNUT.

**CHUBNUT** · 03-22-11, 01:58 PM

dear don,
my original post was to underline that not all vig is equally distributed especially 3 way soccer. As I stated the only sure one is an asian line pick. the game you have picked is an example where its impossible to know exactly where the vig is, my own view would be that the scumbags is the no vig line due to competitiveness leaving room for manoever on the others. Being out a couple of ticks on the estimation is not a big deal until your trading on betfair at 5k plus a pop then every tick is critical. As per norm I have the scumbags at a bigger price but thats where the king canute mentality has to be put aside and concentrate on other games where perceived edges are more in line with reality. stats and models are all well and good for ballpark probability but theres no stats on perception, thats what your brain's for and if its not up to the task then ultimately you end up a loser.
Of course I dont need to tell you all this, your a successful pro like many on here. feel free to put your learned opinion forward, we can all something new.

**donjuan** · 03-22-11, 06:18 PM

Please repost when it's intelligible in English.

**whatagoal1** · 03-23-11, 07:46 AM

donjuan, where can I bet manchester at -117?

**CHUBNUT** · 03-23-11, 08:09 AM

Originally posted by whatagoal1

donjuan, where can I bet manchester at -117?

pinny has it at -117. no good asking donjuan for any info, he is an internet bot programed to reveal zero.

**katstale** · 03-23-11, 09:39 AM

This thread is a reminder to me why I seldom venture into this area.

**CHUBNUT** · 03-23-11, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by katstale

This thread is a reminder to me why I seldom venture into this area.

your not missed

**CHUBNUT** · 03-23-11, 11:29 AM

thats 3 know alls now that HAS ventured in to this thread and HAVE gone out of their way to post derogatorily. yet none of them have put forward any contribution as to why they think this. I havent a problem with people saying I'm wrong, betting is all about opinions but at least put forward some positive input.

**jgilmartin** · 03-23-11, 12:01 PM

Chub,
An oddsmaker isn't going to post no-vig odds on anything; think about how easy it would be to bury them on the 'draw' bet. If you are betting into X% juice lines now, your line on the game has to differ from the no-vig line by more than the juice in order to have an edge. If you're betting into no-vig lines, X = 0.

Think of regular -110 lines; the no vig line is +100; they would basically be giving you 2.38% of extra edge.

**CHUBNUT** · 03-23-11, 01:48 PM

gil,
I know from your other posts that you know your football betting and what you say is very true but the draw nowadays is dictated(especially on pick games) by what happens to the other two options. If both are weak in the market because of confidence then the draw price is going to contract regardless of public opinion. Knowing that its highly unlikely that will happen in a pick game, the books can afford to lay a no vig price the draw.
this is beginning to become a bit of a tennis match so i'll call it a day and let people decide for themselves.

**durito** · 03-23-11, 02:54 PM

I can't tell what is wrong with your ideas because you don't express them in coherent English.

**CHUBNUT** · 03-23-11, 03:48 PM

Originally posted by durito

I can't tell what is wrong with your ideas because you don't express them in coherent English.

there's nothing wrong with my IDEA

what I'm saying is common knowledge amongst the more sharper football bettors. Its pretty obvious that the vig on a 3 way football game is not going to be equally distributed and as I said earlier it need not be a problem to your selection unless your trading on markets like betfair or trying to find an edge on the asian h'cap.

I'm sorry that I dont back my knowledge up with stats or mathematical equations or even with coherent english but I have been doing this for a long time and I'm just trying to stop people going down silly paths leading to depressing futility. Stats have a significant place in betting as does sensible betting but intuition and experience is a major part seldom spoke about on forums.

Funnily enough I found some recent podcasts of Alan Boston, presumably a sharp on college basketball very endearing as a voice of what professional betting really is like, hard work, totally boring and medically dangerous.

**CHUBNUT** · 03-23-11, 04:35 PM

Sorry about the constant posting but I'm trying to aquire enough points to get 2 pairs of SBR knickers to help with my masturbation problem

DURITO or others, feel free to relieve me

**trixtrix** · 03-23-11, 05:44 PM

well, much like your ideas, you seem to misunderstand basic principles such as you're only credited for max of one post per day

**Tomato** · 03-24-11, 01:44 AM

Try this

Attached Files

Edge Calculator.xls (46.0 KB, 244 views)

**George7904** · 03-28-11, 01:33 PM

Thanks Tomato,

That is exactly what I wanted.

**That Foreign Guy** · 03-29-11, 09:47 AM

The concept of there being just 1 line is leading this discussion down fruitless paths.

How and if a bookie "distributes" vig among options doesn't matter when there are 70 other bookies with slightly different prices.

It also doesn't matter if the bookie is distributing vig or has a different model. The price is all that matters, not how they arrive at it.

**danshan11** · 10-02-18, 08:22 AM

I know this is a super old thread but I am still not understanding how they calculate it, the pinnacle margin calculator puts most of the vig on the favorite which I think that cant be true, does anyone know the no vig price of this scenario and if you do can you please tell me how you got there
+713 1
+416 X
-250 2

**LT Profits** · 10-02-18, 12:10 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

I know this is a super old thread but I am still not understanding how they calculate it, the pinnacle margin calculator puts most of the vig on the favorite which I think that cant be true, does anyone know the no vig price of this scenario and if you do can you please tell me how you got there
+713 1
+416 X
-250 2

Vigged:
1: +713 = 1/8.13 = 12.30%
2: +416 = 1/5.16 = 19.38%
3: -250 = 2.5/3.5 = 71.43%
Overround Sum = 103.11%, so Vig = 3.11%

For No Vig, simply divide Vigged by 1.0311

1: 11.93%
2: 18.80%
3: 69.28%

**danshan11** · 10-02-18, 01:52 PM

it does not work like that, they use fave longshot bias

**LT Profits** · 10-02-18, 02:37 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

it does not work like that, they use fave longshot bias

It is as close as you will get, estimate does not need to be perfect. It gets you in the ballpark.

**danshan11** · 10-02-18, 02:41 PM

but that is way way off and that is the problem for me as you know I live on the "edge", literally LOL

**LT Profits** · 10-02-18, 02:41 PM

And FYI, my post above was the procedure from Ganchrow's post.

**LT Profits** · 10-02-18, 02:43 PM

Originally posted by danshan11

but that is way way off and that is the problem for me as you know I live on the "edge", literally LOL

But it is not "way way" off, you will never be precise without knowing Pinny's exact shading. If you are that worried about it, just increase required edge to make a play.

**LT Profits** · 10-02-18, 02:52 PM

Or if you are feeling BOLD, you can distribute the vig 50-25-25 or however you see fit. At least the TOTAL vig is exact.

**danshan11** · 10-02-18, 03:28 PM

the total vig is exact but the issue is using my mad science formula from Joe B, I get

Approx fair	Approx fair	Approx fair
Home	Draw	Away
775	445	-236

**cincinnatikid513** · 10-03-18, 12:15 AM

if u can beat the 3 way line in soccer u are a sharp

**Gaze73** · 10-03-18, 02:40 AM

Originally posted by cincinnatikid513

if u can beat the 3 way line in soccer u are a sharp

I can beat the 3 way line but not the 2 way line, it drives me nuts but I'll get to the bottom of it. So far my theory is "if you're not confident the dog will win straight up, don't take the handicap" and that includes AH +0. Also this thread is almost as old as the pyramids.

**danshan11** · 10-03-18, 07:45 AM

yes a very interesting thing is the 3 way market and the weird vig distribution, I have read a million times how the fave longshot bias works but I still really dont get a good grasp on it.

**Gaze73** · 10-03-18, 10:24 AM

The fav longshot bias is a myth. They say the market is overestimating the chances of dogs winning, but the issue is that books put extra juice on dogs. E.g. a true 9/1 dog becomes 7.5/1 due to juice, so of course they're going to win only 10% of games.