Correlated Parlays in Baseball

[dynamite140]

I am not talking about taking a favorite -1.5 and the over parlay or the underdog +1.5 and the under parlay because those bets are not allowed. I read something along the lines of if the home team wins, it usually goes under. If the road team wins, it goes over. Is there any truth to this? Because most games i see in baseball more often than not does end this way. If the home team wins, usually the game will go under since they have 3 less at bats. If road team wins, home team gets an additional 3 at bats while they are down for them to produce some runs since they are losing.

Now i know it would be bad when the favorite wins but they go over but does anyone know the stats of favorites winning and under along with dogs winning and the over?

I would think betting this be a better alternative than say if you wanted to take a favorite on the runline? If you can get a home favorite on the runline for +120, wouldn't it be a better idea to take the Home Team ML and parlay them with the Under? Usually the payout is going to be at least +180 for parlaying the home team with the under and that is assuming the home team is a good size favorite. If the underdog is a big underdog, it would be a better payout. I recalled the Royals were at home against the yankees and +200 dogs. Well taking the Royals the home team with the under gave you +500. And if you take an away team with them being an underdog and going over usually gives usually +300 payout as well.

Also, does anyone have a stat this year on what are the number of games that end in

Road Team Win/Over
Road Team Win/Under
Home Team Win/Over
Home Team Win/Under


I would have to just assume the combination that hits the most is something like

Home Team Win/Under
Road Team Win/Over
Home Team Win/Over
Road Team Win/Under

I know this is not new stuff because i read something about this in a forum. But if you just blindly take 3 parlays and take 3 home teams whether they are favorite or not and the under parlayed or take 3 parlays and take 3 road teams and the over parlayed, you would show a profit with hitting 1 of the parlays.

Anyone have any thoughts on this or info?

[Pokerjoe]

Questions like this are not matters of opinion. So you're asking whether anyone will respond with DB research.

The problem with that is that if they say yes, such bets work, you don't know the quality of their methodology, and if they say no, such bets don't work, you don't know that they aren't trying to misdirect you to protect their knowledge of the market error.

IOW, I honestly don't think there's any getting around doing your own work on this. Good luck.

[mminkovski]

Those parlays work but you need to have good odds with your bookie, lot's of research and high limits. I've been cut to $1 bet in 2 places for parlaying baseball.

[Wrecktangle]

Depending on the sport (yeah, I know we're talking bases here) but trends (large angles) like these are are work in most all sports, but not enough to overcome the vig, typically. A rule of thumb: if they do work for one year, it typically smoothes out the next since the market is very efficient in spotting these trends and taking them away. i.e. easily spottable trends, easily vanish.

[dinaro7]

no thats not true

[Toples]

there's something to it
last 7 seasons
Home team won - 4592-4075 for under (1% UNDER ROI)
Away team won - 3674-3522 for over (negative ROI for OVER)

[dynamite140]

Anyone else can chime in on this?

[dynamite140]

Anyone else?

[LegitBet]

I have made it one of my three/four areas to really 'specialize' in, that being seeking out correlations where noone has thought to look.
( as far as I can tell).
Although still in it's gestation period with me, I am highly confident there's gold en them thar hills.
You have to be super outside the box, and
Look at data that most would consider irrelevant, and rightfully so, until you get that lightbulb moment.

[HoulihansTX]

Find a book that will let you parlay the RL w/ the total.

If you live in Vegas, then go to a Coast casino.

+1.5, and under
-1.5, and over

[gamblinggoose]

is there anybody who has data to prove this? I am thinking about doing -1.5 Favorites with the Over in cases of 7.5 and 9.5 (as i read somewhere that those are good numbers). Anybody have any data to support this play? my bookie allows it...

[d2bets]

is there anybody who has data to prove this? I am thinking about doing -1.5 Favorites with the Over in cases of 7.5 and 9.5 (as i read somewhere that those are good numbers). Anybody have any data to support this play? my bookie allows it...

But wouldn't this be much better with road teams also? So Road -1.5/Over or Home +1.5/under.

The problem with this is the juice on totals can be higher and trying to find a book that has a competitive number on both sides you want could be tough.

[RickySteve]

I predict you lose money.

[Arilou]

Toples, find yourself some reduced juice! You clearly need it.

The correlation is real and obvious. It's easy to identify the causal mechanism here, if the home team wins there is some portion of a half inning that goes unplayed so there's no reason to be skeptical of the data that bears this out. Any simulation, even one that isn't trying that hard to be accurate, will create this correlation automatically.

Is it big enough for blind bets, or betting both sides? No, not at current cost to parlay. However, if you like one of the bets, and don't mind the other, adding the second one in the form of a parlay at reduced juice is good; you can pay -105 here with confidence, although not -110. If you like both bets, combining them in a parlay is a gimme, and this should be automatic so long as you are sufficiently small that the book or books in question don't mind you doing this. Eventually if you're doing well you will want to play for sufficient size that parlays lose out to straight bets in marginal spots.

[Gus Fring]

My book I can parlay fav -1.5/ over. Hasn't been profitable for me so far though

[raiders72001]

My book I can parlay fav -1.5/ over. Hasn't been profitable for me so far though

what book?

[diybookie]

You can't just blindly bet it and make money.