1. #1
    Spektre
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    Second round conditional probabilities

    So, this is a brain teaser I should be able to figure out, but I am stuck.

    thepowerrank.com gives probabilities for each team through the tournament at each round.

    But now we know the results of the first round. With that new information, we should be able to update the original probabilities for the second round. Does anyone know the conditional probability formula for this situation?

    25 bet points to the first to give me the maths.
    Last edited by Spektre; 03-20-21 at 11:54 PM.
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  2. #2
    KVB
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    They gave Colgate a whopping 23.6% chance to get to the finals and 33.6% chance to reach the final four?

    Those are huge percentages for the 14 seeded Colgate.

    $20
    Angelman
    donation 02/15/2021


  3. #3
    Spektre
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    He explained in the text Colgate's numbers were off due to them having only played 5 teams.

  4. #4
    Spektre
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    Hmm so looking at just a 4 team portion of the bracket:

    Team 1 plays Team 2
    Team 3 plays Team 4

    The winners play each other in the next round.

    A is the event that Team 1 wins Game 2
    B is the event that Team 4 wins Game 1

    P(A|B) = (P(B|A) * P(A)) / P(B)

    P(A), and P(B) are known from the original probabilities, but I don't know how to get P(B|A)

  5. #5
    TheGoldenGoose
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    P(b|a) = fac

  6. #6
    Spektre
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    What?

  7. #7
    Spektre
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    Hmm. In the old days the Think Tank would take on math problems...

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