1. #1
    Pricetopher
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    Mlb betting system

    For starters, trust me when I say I fully understand the eye roll when seeing anything regarding a "system" - but for the past 8 seasons I have turned a substantial profit every season (and have been dropped by three local books) by simply exploiting the unpredictability and ML's used in MLB betting.

    While I have sold the system on a few occasions, I didn't want to hop on the forum claiming I had this great system and everyone should throw money at it - I'm against sounding anything like a tout. For a few years I would give my plays on The Dan Dakich Show and JMV via ESPN Radio here in Indiana - I used the moniker 59Theorem based off of a football system I created. I have always given my plays out for free - my thought is if someone claims they're as good as they're professing, why would they need your money?!

    That said, this is a bit different given the fact that it doesn't entail handicapping games as I did in both football and basketball - as I said before, it simply uses math and unpredictability of the MLB season. Of course there is some weeding out of a daily slate of games in order to come up with the right plays, but that is all explained in full detail in the presentation I created for it.

    I guess what I am asking my fellow SBR members is what would be the best way to monetize the system in your mind? Being sports bettors, you assuredly have a better understanding and feel for what I am asking than normal people who aren't involved in the sports betting industry.

    I was thinking of first posting the plays here each day, for free of course, and keeping a running tally for about a month or so until it has the proven results I have come to expect from it - honestly supplementing my income throughout the summer (the system doesn't use MLB playoff games).

    While I am sure the trolls will have a great time with this post, if anyone has anything they want to add, I would be more than happy to hear it and would appreciate the input. Thanks again!
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    Last edited by Pricetopher; 04-12-19 at 11:43 AM. Reason: Adding content

  2. #2
    danshan11
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    What is the expected ROI based on the bet line to the closing line and actual ROI since you backtested it? what is the avg line bet at? when is it safe to bet after limits rise or when? how many records do you have to support it (T score type stuff)?

  3. #3
    Pricetopher
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    What is the expected ROI based on the bet line to the closing line and actual ROI since you backtested it? what is the avg line bet at? when is it safe to bet after limits rise or when? how many records do you have to support it (T score type stuff)?
    I began keeping records of it a few seasons back simply on an Excel spreadsheet, knowing people are more visual in learning - also the reason I put together a full presentation a few seasons ago, even if it was going to only be for my closest friends who also sports bet.

    As far as the lines go, it is based off of the opening line ONLY and regardless of deviation due to public movement, it doesn't change your play. That said, I always try to get the opening line simply due to the fact that its the truest line.

    You set the limits you want and feel comfortable with for each game, it's all relative - but do not change them once the season begins. Like I said, it's strictly math and in order to capitalize, every play needs to be for the same risked amount for the entirety of the season, there is no weight on given plays, all are equal.

    For the past few seasons the ROI has steadied just under 164% with last season being one of the 'worst' (I use that term loosely) finishing at 146% ROI. As far as records go, I had only kept them for myself loosely but wouldn't be opposed to starting something public for everyone to access and use until the results from the past 8-10 years start to rear their head, which I have no doubt they will. I would be more than happy and willing to show proven results before anything else.

  4. #4
    Stallion
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    So what are your picks??

  5. #5
    Pricetopher
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    Quote Originally Posted by Stallion View Post
    So what are your picks??
    It'll begin Monday.

  6. #6
    JacketFan81
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    146% ROI? This is gonna be one epic thread.

  7. #7
    Pricetopher
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    Quote Originally Posted by JacketFan81 View Post
    146% ROI? This is gonna be one epic thread.
    I'd feel the same way seeing someone post it myself, which is why I have no problem posting plays for a week or two for everyone to follow. #tryitbeforeyoubuyit

  8. #8
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pricetopher View Post
    I began keeping records of it a few seasons back simply on an Excel spreadsheet, knowing people are more visual in learning - also the reason I put together a full presentation a few seasons ago, even if it was going to only be for my closest friends who also sports bet.

    As far as the lines go, it is based off of the opening line ONLY and regardless of deviation due to public movement, it doesn't change your play. That said, I always try to get the opening line simply due to the fact that its the truest line.

    You set the limits you want and feel comfortable with for each game, it's all relative - but do not change them once the season begins. Like I said, it's strictly math and in order to capitalize, every play needs to be for the same risked amount for the entirety of the season, there is no weight on given plays, all are equal.

    For the past few seasons the ROI has steadied just under 164% with last season being one of the 'worst' (I use that term loosely) finishing at 146% ROI. As far as records go, I had only kept them for myself loosely but wouldn't be opposed to starting something public for everyone to access and use until the results from the past 8-10 years start to rear their head, which I have no doubt they will. I would be more than happy and willing to show proven results before anything else.
    when does the bet ripen to actually bet it at opening line 250 limits or after first pitch last game when limits are up? what can a person get down on each game assuming using just pinny or fairlay?

  9. #9
    Pricetopher
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    when does the bet ripen to actually bet it at opening line 250 limits or after first pitch last game when limits are up? what can a person get down on each game assuming using just pinny or fairlay?
    I go by the opening line via 5Dimes but used to use the consensus via VegasInsider.com. Whatever you decide to make your original per-play amount will be the most you can lose on any given game since it uses only dogs, never paying a vig.

  10. #10
    Barrakuda
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    If you think a month of documentation is going to establish anything, think again...

    https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-...HJ2HSEAMWSY89K

    Create an acct at PickMonitor or somewhere similar and track your perf for a few years; then you can point to a third-party track record.

  11. #11
    Barrakuda
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pricetopher View Post
    since it uses only dogs, never paying a vig.
    You just outed yourself as a novice. Vig is paid on both sides of a moneyline.

  12. #12
    danshan11
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    come on Kuda read the whole thing, you think the vig was the clue, that was 1 of 30 clues

  13. #13
    Pricetopher
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    I'm not here to prove anything to anyone, just legitimately thought I would try to help promote the system I've used for years. My God, you guys are the most disrespectful trolls everywhere, doubting anyone and everyone who claims they're actually good at doing this. I was also said to be full of sh*t about the $32k payout from 5Dimes a few months ago... until I showed screen shots. And now this?!

    Why didn't you discredit the ESPN Radio shows I was featured on for a few years? Seriously... if anyone would like a peek at the system, which I've stated before uses math not 'handicapping expertise' to actually make substantial profits in MLB betting, feel free to get in touch. I legitimately don't have time to try to prove myself to people who just want to sit back, troll and doubt anyone and everyone who comes along.

    Kuda and Dan, in the meantime you can both kindly kiss my ass - blocking and ignoring any further communication from you children.

  14. #14
    danshan11
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    sorry to offend you Price, I just did not see things adding up, again sorry if you want to answer some questions, I would be glad to ask them!

  15. #15
    Pricetopher
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    sorry to offend you Price, I just did not see things adding up, again sorry if you want to answer some questions, I would be glad to ask them!
    I AM NOT ASKING ANYTHING FROM ANYONE - I WOULD GIVE THE PLAYS OUT ALL SEASON LONG FOR NOTHING!

    I have been using it for several years and finally thought there could possibly be a way to monetize it in the long run outside of simply using it. However, based off of Kuda's response, I'm sure an entire season wouldn't be good enough and I have been attempting to answer each one of your questions, just to be called a novice because I used a term wrong.

    To say yours (and most other sports bettor's) holier-than-thou attitudes are disrespectful is an understatement - but to be perfectly honest, it's just par for the course any time I look to have a decent conversation with people whom I feel I can help supplement their income all while using a favorite hobby to do so.

    The last thing I need too is someone sending me a link talking about 'unskilled betting' - seriously, Kuda... who in the hell do you think you are?! If it is just a trend, then how about I put $10k of my own money up to just $5k of yours that my ROI will be well over 50% after the first month. You've got enough balls to shoot links over to people, now man-up or do everyone a favor and shut up. IN NO WAY am I a novice to sports betting... none.

    I've given you enough unwarranted time and attention... so unless you would like to take me up on the offer, kindly shut the f*ck up.

    If anyone else would like to find out more about this ABSOLUTELY FREE PLAYS I'm giving out in order to possibly make money off of the system I've used for years (coming up on 10, to be exact), feel free to contact me in a troll-free way. I swear, some of you guys either need hugs, punched in the throat or both.

    It's not everyone else's fault mommy didn't love you... Christ.

    "Haters will see you walk on water and say it's because you can't swim."
    Last edited by Pricetopher; 04-12-19 at 11:42 PM.

  16. #16
    nash13
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    In this field of interest a lot of scepticism comes around. if you are giving away things for free, people will claim that you are doing this to gain customers. if you are willing to discuss and be supportive, you are a know it all. you can not please them all.

  17. #17
    COYLO
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    im all ears price

  18. #18
    Pricetopher
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    april 13, 2019

    pit (+112)

    nym (+116)

  19. #19
    Barrakuda
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    Guy has no third-party track record, wants to sell picks, becomes unhinged when people suggest he will need to create a track record to sell.

    Where have I seen this before?

  20. #20
    deltgen
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    I'm interested to see what you have Pricetopher. Underdogs in baseball are the only way I make money, but in the early goings this season I'm getting crushed so you caught me at a good time. I don't have any sort of system or math-based formula--I just know and enjoy the sport and thus follow a bit more closely than most. Good luck to you.

  21. #21
    Pricetopher
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    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    In this field of interest a lot of scepticism comes around. if you are giving away things for free, people will claim that you are doing this to gain customers. if you are willing to discuss and be supportive, you are a know it all. you can not please them all.
    Amen.

  22. #22
    Pricetopher
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    Quote Originally Posted by COYLO View Post
    im all ears price
    Then let’s get it!

  23. #23
    Pricetopher
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    Quote Originally Posted by deltgen View Post
    I'm interested to see what you have Pricetopher. Underdogs in baseball are the only way I make money, but in the early goings this season I'm getting crushed so you caught me at a good time. I don't have any sort of system or math-based formula--I just know and enjoy the sport and thus follow a bit more closely than most. Good luck to you.
    Well, let’s hope that gets changed around a bit thanks to some mathematics! Remember, starting from today, make the same risked wager amount you’d be comfortable with for EVERY play posted (usually 4 to 8 on a daily slate, but obviously this varies).

    And screw the negativity, it’s gets no more of my energy... g’luck, brotha!

  24. #24
    tsty
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    scum

  25. #25
    danshan11
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    he has the same ROI as you tsty!

  26. #26
    vicshap
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pricetopher View Post
    Well, letís hope that gets changed around a bit thanks to some mathematics! Remember, starting from today, make the same risked wager amount youíd be comfortable with for EVERY play posted (usually 4 to 8 on a daily slate, but obviously this varies).

    And screw the negativity, itís gets no more of my energy... gíluck, brotha!
    very much appreciated sir, locked in, thanks.

  27. #27
    Pricetopher
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    Quote Originally Posted by vicshap View Post
    very much appreciated sir, locked in, thanks.
    You got it, brother... g'luck to us all!

  28. #28
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pricetopher View Post
    That said, I always try to get the opening line simply due to the fact that its the truest line.

    You set the limits you want and feel comfortable with for each game

    For the past few seasons the ROI has steadied just under 164% with last season being one of the 'worst' (I use that term loosely) finishing at 146% ROI.
    what do you mean the truest line?
    How do I set the limits?
    146%ROI can you tell me how you are calculating that, I have never seen even the loudest touts claim that?

  29. #29
    danshan11
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pricetopher View Post
    april 13, 2019

    pit (+112)

    nym (+116)
    according to your system is it good or bad the Mets went from +116 when you issued it to now being at +136? would this updated line change your opinion on the Mets?

  30. #30
    Pricetopher
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    Quote Originally Posted by danshan11 View Post
    according to your system is it good or bad the Mets went from +116 when you issued it to now being at +136? would this updated line change your opinion on the Mets?
    Set your limits with whatever you're comfortable with, keeping in mind that on some days there will be 7 or 8 plays all on one slate. And by 'truest line' I mean lines set by Vegas, not pertaining to public movement. So, NYM opening at (+116) and moving to (+136) is sort of a bonus in this case, given no pitching changes caused the line shift.

    I try to get the line close to when they're posted... usually the night before.

  31. #31
    JacketFan81
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    Being as we're in the Think-tank, I'd be very curious to know exactly what sort of mathematics your system employs.

  32. #32
    vicshap
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    Even if it's 0-2 today, it's just the beginning of hopefully winning.

  33. #33
    vicshap
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    Often happens. Someone starts a new thread, and the first day is bad. No biggie.

  34. #34
    Believe_EMT
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pricetopher View Post
    And by 'truest line' I mean lines set by Vegas, not pertaining to public movement. So, NYM opening at (+116) and moving to (+136) is sort of a bonus in this case, given no pitching changes caused the line shift.
    in the spirit of a civil of discourse, just a few questions or observations

    the opening line is by far the least efficient. do you agree?

    more information comes in as the line matures, increasing the accuracy of the line. do you agree?

    i believe those first two points which leaves me confounded as to how you view a line move 20 cents against your play a bonus? you are clearly on the wrong side of that play. (wrong side meaning the closing line is efficient, but when we say it is efficient it should be understood by bettor that it is in the context of this same contest being played an infinite number of times. given this, if you accepted +116 when it closed at +136 an infinite number of times, your losses would be exponentially larger than a guy dropping a play on the mets just before close. he would lose as well, not just as much as you.)


    this does bring back memories of when i used to follow this system and post it across the street. only looked to win 20 units a year and then shut it down. did not end well.

  35. #35
    AsianmanSports
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    Quote Originally Posted by Believe_EMT View Post
    if you accepted +116 when it closed at +136 an infinite number of times, your losses would be exponentially larger than a guy dropping a play on the mets just before close. he would lose as well, not just as much as you.)
    Thats not true, just because the Line moved against a Team doesnt mean you cant find value near close.

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