Originally Posted by
Bsims
The issue here is the definition of edge. danshan11 defines it as how well his computed line compares to the closing line, hence can't use Kelly until the game starts.
HeeeHAWWWW uses the most common definition , "Edge is decimal odds * probability, so 100/105 +1 * 0.53 =1.035". Both of these numbers are available throughout the day, hence he can use Kelly.
danshan11 did make a couple of interesting observations. "I guess my true argument is why add another variable to our job of trying to minimize and account for variables, less variables we have as bettors the clloser we get to winning". Kelly does add another variable to the betting experience which can be good or bad.
Also, his bet sizing approach (fixing the to win amount) is a bit unusual. It actually has some Kelly like properties.