1. #1
    nash13
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    Simple MLB system

    If the total line in the current game is lower by 0.5 or 1 than the previous one take the UNDER.
    2861-2412
    with 260 Units Profit in the last 4 years.
    if you know any filters to redefine let me know.
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  2. #2
    nash13
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    it gets even better if this is the same opponent as in the game before = SG > 1

  3. #3
    Marco30
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    baseball is a grind u have to stay patient with a system.....

  4. #4
    nash13
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    i think 5 years running is ok, but you have to play every selection to win by volume.

  5. #5
    nemisis12
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    What's your monthly profits running this system?

  6. #6
    Bsims
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    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    If the total line in the current game is lower by 0.5 or 1 than the previous one take the UNDER.
    If different opponents from previous games, does total have to be below both previous totals?

  7. #7
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bsims View Post
    If different opponents from previous games, does total have to be below both previous totals?
    no only 1 is the condition as minimum.

  8. #8
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by nemisis12 View Post
    What's your monthly profits running this system?
    games SU
    W - L (marg, %win)
    Avg Line o:Avg Line $ On $ Against OU
    W - L- P (marg, %over)
    Avg Total $ Over $ Under SDQL
    1423 716-707 (0.02, 50.3%) -106.8 -106.6 -$2,795 -$4,290 617-746-60 (0.13, 45.3%) 8.5 -$19,935 +$7,095 season = 2009
    1367 683-684 (0.01, 50.0%) -108.4 -106.0 -$4,530 -$2,790 595-701-71 (0.31, 45.9%) 8.1 -$17,390 +$4,530 season = 2010
    1352 683-669 (0.01, 50.5%) -106.6 -105.8 -$2,117 -$4,946 640-630-82 (0.25, 50.4%) 7.8 -$5,035 -$7,455 season = 2011
    1416 701-715 (-0.05, 49.5%) -106.8 -105.8 -$5,841 -$1,257 644-710-62 (0.44, 47.6%) 7.9 -$13,065 +$360 season = 2012
    1429 734-695 (0.08, 51.4%) -106.7 -105.7 +$1,116 -$7,892 596-770-63 (0.09, 43.6%) 7.7 -$25,115 +$11,850 season = 2013
    1379 674-705 (-0.10, 48.9%) -106.1 -105.7 -$6,695 +$365 578-725-76 (0.12, 44.4%) 7.5 -$21,645 +$9,745 season = 2014
    1381 691-690 (-0.04, 50.0%) -105.3 -106.3 -$3,301 -$3,022 614-688-79 (0.35, 47.2%) 7.4 -$15,067 +$2,360 season = 2015
    1365 675-690 (-0.07, 49.5%) -105.7 -106.7 -$5,223 -$1,333 614-699-52 (0.26, 46.8%) 8.0 -$15,280 +$2,997 season = 2016
    1424 702-722 (-0.06, 49.3%) -105.9 -106.6 -$6,138 -$739 606-749-69 (0.09, 44.7%) 8.6 -$20,850 +$10,942 season = 2017
    1 loosing year out of 9.

  9. #9
    turbobets
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    Yesterday
    Team A vs Team B = 7.0ou
    Team C vs Team D = 8.0ou

    Today
    Team A vs Team C = 7.5ou bet it?

  10. #10
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by turbobets View Post
    Yesterday
    Team A vs Team B = 7.0ou
    Team C vs Team D = 8.0ou

    Today
    Team A vs Team C = 7.5ou bet it?
    No i only looked at the condition when both teams dropped in the Unders.
    Last edited by nash13; 03-02-18 at 01:21 AM.

  11. #11
    nash13
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    0.5 <= p:total - total <= 1 and season > 2008 and SG = 1 and op:total - o:total
    shows

    games OU
    W - L- P (marg, %over)
    Avg Total $ Over $ Under SDQL
    1 0-0-1 (0.00, 0.0%) 12.0 $0 $0 op:total - o:total = -5.5
    4 1-3-0 (-1.50, 25.0%) 10.5 -$220 +$200 op:total - o:total = -4.0
    7 4-3-0 (1.50, 57.1%) 10.4 +$60 -$125 op:total - o:total = -3.5
    10 7-2-1 (2.10, 77.8%) 10.3 +$475 -$560 op:total - o:total = -3.0
    19 9-8-2 (1.18, 52.9%) 9.8 -$12 -$160 op:total - o:total = -2.5
    43 17-21-5 (0.42, 44.7%) 9.0 -$570 +$195 op:total - o:total = -2.0
    136 71-60-5 (0.61, 54.2%) 8.7 +$503 -$1,810 op:total - o:total = -1.5
    317 149-153-15 (0.47, 49.3%) 8.4 -$1,782 -$1,069 op:total - o:total = -1.0
    537 237-271-29 (0.14, 46.7%) 8.2 -$5,777 +$969 op:total - o:total = -0.5
    809 390-389-30 (0.72, 50.1%) 8.0 -$3,227 -$3,686 op:total - o:total = 0.0
    855 369-439-47 (0.21, 45.7%) 7.8 -$11,038 +$3,411 op:total - o:total = 0.5
    613 257-341-15 (-0.11, 43.0%) 7.6 -$11,728 +$5,799 op:total - o:total = 1.0
    345 162-168-15 (0.62, 49.1%) 7.5 -$2,287 -$769 op:total - o:total = 1.5
    193 88-98-7 (0.13, 47.3%) 7.4 -$1,920 +$238 op:total - o:total = 2.0
    76 36-36-4 (0.88, 50.0%) 7.2 -$335 -$310 op:total - o:total = 2.5
    45 24-17-4 (1.40, 58.5%) 7.0 +$570 -$950 op:total - o:total = 3.0
    23 10-13-0 (-0.24, 43.5%) 7.1 -$443 +$280 op:total - o:total = 3.5
    14 3-10-1 (-0.79, 23.1%) 7.3 -$780 +$652 op:total - o:total = 4.0
    6 3-3-0 (1.58, 50.0%) 7.1 -$45 -$20 op:total - o:total = 4.5
    4 1-3-0 (-0.62, 25.0%) 7.1 -$250 +$205 op:total - o:total = 5.0

  12. #12
    nash13
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    So this will be the query for daily results
    H and 0.5 <= p:total - total <= 1 and 0.5 <= op:total - o:total <= 1 and season > 2008

    games OU
    W - L- P (marg, %over)
    Avg Total $ Over $ Under SDQL
    566 247-295-24 (0.17, 45.6%) 8.5 -$7,600 +$2,560 season = 2009
    530 228-273-29 (0.28, 45.5%) 8.1 -$7,115 +$2,150 season = 2010
    535 252-251-32 (0.19, 50.1%) 7.8 -$2,385 -$2,640 season = 2011
    560 249-287-24 (0.38, 46.5%) 7.8 -$6,440 +$1,380 season = 2012
    569 228-316-25 (0.01, 41.9%) 7.6 -$12,030 +$6,760 season = 2013
    541 221-287-33 (0.01, 43.5%) 7.4 -$9,380 +$4,720 season = 2014
    546 241-275-30 (0.26, 46.7%) 7.4 -$6,571 +$1,400 season = 2015
    548 241-286-21 (0.09, 45.7%) 8.0 -$7,348 +$2,290 season = 2016
    572 237-306-29 (0.00, 43.6%) 8.6 -$9,562 +$5,762 season = 2017

    2576 - 2144
    243 Units Profit

  13. #13
    nash13
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    Complementary to that there is an Over system once the total line increased by exactly 1.
    H and p:total - total = -1.0 and op:total - o:total = -1.0 and season > 2008 and season

    games OU
    W - L- P (marg, %over)
    Avg Total $ Over $ Under SDQL
    199 103-85-11 (0.67, 54.8%) 9.4 +$1,145 -$2,830 season = 2009
    209 104-97-8 (0.59, 51.7%) 8.9 -$10 -$1,890 season = 2010
    188 89-82-17 (0.97, 52.0%) 8.6 +$100 -$1,700 season = 2011
    192 92-90-10 (0.57, 50.5%) 8.7 -$460 -$1,355 season = 2012
    189 97-88-4 (0.62, 52.4%) 8.4 +$220 -$1,985 season = 2013
    150 78-70-2 (0.30, 52.7%) 8.3 +$345 -$1,635 season = 2014
    164 91-64-9 (1.12, 58.7%) 8.2 +$2,115 -$3,752 season = 2015
    213 122-82-9 (1.24, 59.8%) 9.0 +$3,311 -$5,306 season = 2016
    178 100-73-5 (1.17, 57.8%) 9.4 +$2,255 -$3,697 season = 2017

    +176 Units in the last 3 Years
    Both Systems togehter +176
    1 Units in the last 3 Years. But it is a Volume Betting System with nearly 800 Picks per year.
    Last edited by nash13; 03-02-18 at 02:16 AM.

  14. #14
    VeggieDog
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    [QUOTE=nash13;27625978]Complementary to that there is an Over system once the total line increased by exactly 1.
    H and p:total - total = -1.0 and op:total - o:total = -1.0 and season > 2008 and season

    games OU
    W - L- P (marg, %over)
    Avg Total $ Over $ Under SDQL
    199 103-85-11 (0.67, 54.8%) 9.4 +$1,145 -$2,830 season = 2009
    209 104-97-8 (0.59, 51.7%) 8.9 -$10 -$1,890 season = 2010
    188 89-82-17 (0.97, 52.0%) 8.6 +$100 -$1,700 season = 2011
    192 92-90-10 (0.57, 50.5%) 8.7 -$460 -$1,355 season = 2012
    189 97-88-4 (0.62, 52.4%) 8.4 +$220 -$1,985 season = 2013
    150 78-70-2 (0.30, 52.7%) 8.3 +$345 -$1,635 season = 2014
    164 91-64-9 (1.12, 58.7%) 8.2 +$2,115 -$3,752 season = 2015
    213 122-82-9 (1.24, 59.8%) 9.0 +$3,311 -$5,306 season = 2016
    178 100-73-5 (1.17, 57.8%) 9.4 +$2,255 -$3,697 season = 2017

    +76 Units in the last 3 Years
    Both Systems togehter +176
    1 Units in the last 3 Years. But it is a Volume Betting System with nearly 800 Picks per year.[/QUOTE]


    Holy crap. 2400 picks and you're only up 76 units? A dartboard would be better.

  15. #15
    nash13
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    [QUOTE=VeggieDog;27625986]
    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    Complementary to that there is an Over system once the total line increased by exactly 1.
    H and p:total - total = -1.0 and op:total - o:total = -1.0 and season > 2008 and season

    games OU
    W - L- P (marg, %over)
    Avg Total $ Over $ Under SDQL
    199 103-85-11 (0.67, 54.8%) 9.4 +$1,145 -$2,830 season = 2009
    209 104-97-8 (0.59, 51.7%) 8.9 -$10 -$1,890 season = 2010
    188 89-82-17 (0.97, 52.0%) 8.6 +$100 -$1,700 season = 2011
    192 92-90-10 (0.57, 50.5%) 8.7 -$460 -$1,355 season = 2012
    189 97-88-4 (0.62, 52.4%) 8.4 +$220 -$1,985 season = 2013
    150 78-70-2 (0.30, 52.7%) 8.3 +$345 -$1,635 season = 2014
    164 91-64-9 (1.12, 58.7%) 8.2 +$2,115 -$3,752 season = 2015
    213 122-82-9 (1.24, 59.8%) 9.0 +$3,311 -$5,306 season = 2016
    178 100-73-5 (1.17, 57.8%) 9.4 +$2,255 -$3,697 season = 2017

    +76 Units in the last 3 Years
    Both Systems togehter +176
    1 Units in the last 3 Years. But it is a Volume Betting System with nearly 800 Picks per year.[/QUOTE]

    Holy crap. 2400 picks and you're only up 76 units? A dartboard would be better.
    I guess you are not reading it the right way.
    176 Units Profit in 3 years with 7.7% Yield 2221 Picks.
    If 7% Yield is not enough in 2000+ selections then nobody can help you.
    I typed 76 instead of 176. but you get the numbers.

  16. #16
    VeggieDog
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    Ok. Best of luck to you.

  17. #17
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by VeggieDog View Post
    Ok. Best of luck to you.
    thanks. just shared it to know if people have other conditions to look at.

  18. #18
    Bsims
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    Nash13, interesting "data mining" find. I'll certainly take a look at it in a couple of weeks when I can turn my attention back to baseball. Out of curiosity, can you think of any logical explanation as to why this might be true?

  19. #19
    Waterstpub87
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bsims View Post
    Nash13, interesting "data mining" find. I'll certainly take a look at it in a couple of weeks when I can turn my attention back to baseball. Out of curiosity, can you think of any logical explanation as to why this might be true?
    If it is actually true, it could be latency in the lines. Consider: Yankees offense is over rated. Bookmakers continuously set the total too high. Sharp betters hit the under moving it down. It takes a while for the bookmaker to adjust. Leaving opportunities in assuming that line will be continued to be bet downwards.

    I find it hard to follow these things, because they don't specify opening or closing lines on the backend, as in which one is bet to generate the results.

  20. #20
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Waterstpub87 View Post
    If it is actually true, it could be latency in the lines. Consider: Yankees offense is over rated. Bookmakers continuously set the total too high. Sharp betters hit the under moving it down. It takes a while for the bookmaker to adjust. Leaving opportunities in assuming that line will be continued to be bet downwards.

    I find it hard to follow these things, because they don't specify opening or closing lines on the backend, as in which one is bet to generate the results.
    that's the main problem with any system you take. if you choose to use metrics to determine winners then everything depends on timing and value of the bet. if you assume that the lines from sportsdatabase are actually playable, then it is value nevertheless.

  21. #21
    chilidog
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    A 6% yield doubles your money annually. With a 7.7% yield, that's a 143.55% annual return. So, a $10,000 starting bankroll in 2018 turns into $24,355 at the end of the MLB season. End of 2019 season, you have $59,316. End of 2020 season, you've turned your $10k starting roll into $144,464.

    It's the power of compounding. Sports bettors see that they'd have to grind out 800 MLB bets in a year for 3 years and ONLY make 176 units. They don't see what can really happen.

    Problem is most sports bettors are too impatient to handle the grind, so they never grow. They keep it as recreational only, and never end up making any serious money from it.



    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    I guess you are not reading it the right way.
    176 Units Profit in 3 years with 7.7% Yield 2221 Picks.
    If 7% Yield is not enough in 2000+ selections then nobody can help you.
    I typed 76 instead of 176. but you get the numbers.
    Points Awarded:

    deltgen gave chilidog 2 Betpoint(s) for this post.


  22. #22
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by chilidog View Post
    A 6% yield doubles your money annually. With a 7.7% yield, that's a 143.55% annual return. So, a $10,000 starting bankroll in 2018 turns into $24,355 at the end of the MLB season. End of 2019 season, you have $59,316. End of 2020 season, you've turned your $10k starting roll into $144,464.

    It's the power of compounding. Sports bettors see that they'd have to grind out 800 MLB bets in a year for 3 years and ONLY make 176 units. They don't see what can really happen.

    Problem is most sports bettors are too impatient to handle the grind, so they never grow. They keep it as recreational only, and never end up making any serious money from it.
    Very accurate point, you'll never know if the bookies wake up or the system may loose its edge. Betting psychology is another important factor, betting 1 unit which equals 100$ should be the same as betting 1 unit as 10000$, but it never is.
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  23. #23
    Barrakuda
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    What does SDB say it uses for its line source? Pinnacle closers?

  24. #24
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barrakuda View Post
    What does SDB say it uses for its line source? Pinnacle closers?
    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...able-sdql.html
    in the google groups there is no clear information.

  25. #25
    pilebuck13
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    So just so Iím clear because Iím dumb:
    Yankees Red Sox total 8 then next day Red Sox yankees 7 total take the under? And are you going by previous closing number or open number? And if say they yankees both play a different team the next day and the total is 1 under the previous game bet the under?

  26. #26
    Barrakuda
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    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...able-sdql.html
    in the google groups there is no clear information.
    Thanks. Unfortunate that their data has not been validated.

  27. #27
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by pilebuck13 View Post
    So just so I’m clear because I’m dumb:
    Yankees Red Sox total 8 then next day Red Sox yankees 7 total take the under? And are you going by previous closing number or open number? And if say they yankees both play a different team the next day and the total is 1 under the previous game bet the under?
    The data is not mine, i am going by the numbers sportsdatabase offers. It is easy to go there pre game and check the numbers for yesterday and today. The second question:
    Team A plays Team B the night before total was 8.0
    Next night they play again and if the total is 7.5 or 7.0, i would take the Under.
    If Team A and B go and played different teams the night before:
    Team A had night before total of 8
    Team B had 8.5
    then they meet each other in SG 1, if the total is 7.5 i take under, because both teams line dropped by 0.5 to 1.
    if the total is 8 or 7 then there is no bet for me.
    The main logic assumption here is for me that bookies are overestimating a small drop in scoring.

  28. #28
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Barrakuda View Post
    Thanks. Unfortunate that their data has not been validated.
    i take it like it is, and i have good success with what they offer. it is not perfect, far from for me, but for free you can not find anything better to start from.

  29. #29
    Barrakuda
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    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    i take it like it is, and i have good success with what they offer. it is not perfect, far from for me, but for free you can not find anything better to start from.
    In general does it seem like they are using Pinny closers?

  30. #30
    aljack
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    This system obviously works best for squares in a series of games.

    So if:
    Game 1 (Jays/Yankees) TOT = 8.5

    Game 2 TOT = 7.5
    Take the under.

    Game 3 TOT = 10
    Stay off.

    Game 4 TOT = 8.5
    take the under.

    Am I right here ??

    I am just trying to simplify.

  31. #31
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by aljack View Post
    This system obviously works best for squares in a series of games.

    So if:
    Game 1 (Jays/Yankees) TOT = 8.5

    Game 2 TOT = 7.5
    Take the under.

    Game 3 TOT = 10
    Stay off.

    Game 4 TOT = 8.5
    take the under.

    Am I right here ??

    I am just trying to simplify.
    In fact SG = 4 has no value over time. the value increases from 1 to 2 and 3. with 3 at most.

  32. #32
    aljack
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    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    In fact SG = 4 has no value over time. the value increases from 1 to 2 and 3. with 3 at most.
    Okay so, the best value in this system is in game 2 and 3 of a series.

    I like that concept alot. I will forsure test this out this season.

  33. #33
    aljack
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    Quote Originally Posted by nash13 View Post
    The data is not mine, i am going by the numbers sportsdatabase offers. It is easy to go there pre game and check the numbers for yesterday and today. The second question:
    Team A plays Team B the night before total was 8.0
    Next night they play again and if the total is 7.5 or 7.0, i would take the Under.
    If Team A and B go and played different teams the night before:
    Team A had night before total of 8
    Team B had 8.5
    then they meet each other in SG 1, if the total is 7.5 i take under, because both teams line dropped by 0.5 to 1.
    if the total is 8 or 7 then there is no bet for me.
    The main logic assumption here is for me that bookies are overestimating a small drop in scoring.
    Just to clarify

    If the logic was that the bookies are overestimating a small drop in scoring.
    Wouldn't you take the over instead ??

    I mean, I assume if you take the under - you would be counting on the bookies underestimating a large drop in scoring ??

    Just wondering. Not disagreeing.

  34. #34
    nash13
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    Quote Originally Posted by aljack View Post
    Just to clarify

    If the logic was that the bookies are overestimating a small drop in scoring.
    Wouldn't you take the over instead ??

    I mean, I assume if you take the under - you would be counting on the bookies underestimating a large drop in scoring ??

    Just wondering. Not disagreeing.
    Yes for sure, it works both ways, they are underestimating the scoring drop, they expect it to drop slowly, but it drops even more.
    I had a look of the status of the game before
    if the previous total margin was under 0 so an Under game:
    OU: 2041-2473-236 (0.10, 45.2%) avg total: 7.9 over / under: -$66,382 / +$24,289 ROI: -12.7% / +4.6%

    if the previous total margin was over 0 so an Over game:
    OU:2006-2454-247 (0.15, 45.0%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$69,949 / +$28,536 ROI: -13.4% / +5.5%

    so it did not matter if the previous game went over or under the total, the bookies or whoever makes the lines may have their reasons to decrease the totals. why? i don't really know

  35. #35
    A4K
    A4K's Avatar Become A Pro!
    Join Date: 10-08-12
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    Does baseball have the most volatile totals of the 4 major sports?

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