Simple MLB system

[nash13]

If the total line in the current game is lower by 0.5 or 1 than the previous one take the UNDER.
2861-2412
with 260 Units Profit in the last 4 years.
if you know any filters to redefine let me know.

[nash13]

it gets even better if this is the same opponent as in the game before = SG > 1

[Marco30]

baseball is a grind u have to stay patient with a system.....

[nash13]

i think 5 years running is ok, but you have to play every selection to win by volume.

[nemisis12]

What's your monthly profits running this system?

[Bsims]

If the total line in the current game is lower by 0.5 or 1 than the previous one take the UNDER.

If different opponents from previous games, does total have to be below both previous totals?

[nash13]

If different opponents from previous games, does total have to be below both previous totals?

no only 1 is the condition as minimum.

[nash13]

What's your monthly profits running this system?

1423	716-707 (0.02, 50.3%)	-106.8	-106.6	-$2,795	-$4,290	617-746-60 (0.13, 45.3%)	8.5	-$19,935	+$7,095	season = 2009
1367	683-684 (0.01, 50.0%)	-108.4	-106.0	-$4,530	-$2,790	595-701-71 (0.31, 45.9%)	8.1	-$17,390	+$4,530	season = 2010
1352	683-669 (0.01, 50.5%)	-106.6	-105.8	-$2,117	-$4,946	640-630-82 (0.25, 50.4%)	7.8	-$5,035	-$7,455	season = 2011
1416	701-715 (-0.05, 49.5%)	-106.8	-105.8	-$5,841	-$1,257	644-710-62 (0.44, 47.6%)	7.9	-$13,065	+$360	season = 2012
1429	734-695 (0.08, 51.4%)	-106.7	-105.7	+$1,116	-$7,892	596-770-63 (0.09, 43.6%)	7.7	-$25,115	+$11,850	season = 2013
1379	674-705 (-0.10, 48.9%)	-106.1	-105.7	-$6,695	+$365	578-725-76 (0.12, 44.4%)	7.5	-$21,645	+$9,745	season = 2014
1381	691-690 (-0.04, 50.0%)	-105.3	-106.3	-$3,301	-$3,022	614-688-79 (0.35, 47.2%)	7.4	-$15,067	+$2,360	season = 2015
1365	675-690 (-0.07, 49.5%)	-105.7	-106.7	-$5,223	-$1,333	614-699-52 (0.26, 46.8%)	8.0	-$15,280	+$2,997	season = 2016
1424	702-722 (-0.06, 49.3%)	-105.9	-106.6	-$6,138	-$739	606-749-69 (0.09, 44.7%)	8.6	-$20,850	+$10,942	season = 2017

1 loosing year out of 9.

[turbobets]

Yesterday
Team A vs Team B = 7.0ou
Team C vs Team D = 8.0ou

Today
Team A vs Team C = 7.5ou bet it?

[nash13]

Yesterday
Team A vs Team B = 7.0ou
Team C vs Team D = 8.0ou

Today
Team A vs Team C = 7.5ou bet it?

No i only looked at the condition when both teams dropped in the Unders.

[nash13]

0.5 <= p:total - total <= 1 and season > 2008 and SG = 1 and op:total - o:total
shows

1	0-0-1 (0.00, 0.0%)	12.0	$0	$0	op:total - o:total = -5.5
4	1-3-0 (-1.50, 25.0%)	10.5	-$220	+$200	op:total - o:total = -4.0
7	4-3-0 (1.50, 57.1%)	10.4	+$60	-$125	op:total - o:total = -3.5
10	7-2-1 (2.10, 77.8%)	10.3	+$475	-$560	op:total - o:total = -3.0
19	9-8-2 (1.18, 52.9%)	9.8	-$12	-$160	op:total - o:total = -2.5
43	17-21-5 (0.42, 44.7%)	9.0	-$570	+$195	op:total - o:total = -2.0
136	71-60-5 (0.61, 54.2%)	8.7	+$503	-$1,810	op:total - o:total = -1.5
317	149-153-15 (0.47, 49.3%)	8.4	-$1,782	-$1,069	op:total - o:total = -1.0
537	237-271-29 (0.14, 46.7%)	8.2	-$5,777	+$969	op:total - o:total = -0.5
809	390-389-30 (0.72, 50.1%)	8.0	-$3,227	-$3,686	op:total - o:total = 0.0
855	369-439-47 (0.21, 45.7%)	7.8	-$11,038	+$3,411	op:total - o:total = 0.5
613	257-341-15 (-0.11, 43.0%)	7.6	-$11,728	+$5,799	op:total - o:total = 1.0
345	162-168-15 (0.62, 49.1%)	7.5	-$2,287	-$769	op:total - o:total = 1.5
193	88-98-7 (0.13, 47.3%)	7.4	-$1,920	+$238	op:total - o:total = 2.0
76	36-36-4 (0.88, 50.0%)	7.2	-$335	-$310	op:total - o:total = 2.5
45	24-17-4 (1.40, 58.5%)	7.0	+$570	-$950	op:total - o:total = 3.0
23	10-13-0 (-0.24, 43.5%)	7.1	-$443	+$280	op:total - o:total = 3.5
14	3-10-1 (-0.79, 23.1%)	7.3	-$780	+$652	op:total - o:total = 4.0
6	3-3-0 (1.58, 50.0%)	7.1	-$45	-$20	op:total - o:total = 4.5
4	1-3-0 (-0.62, 25.0%)	7.1	-$250	+$205	op:total - o:total = 5.0

[nash13]

So this will be the query for daily results
H and 0.5 <= p:total - total <= 1 and 0.5 <= op:total - o:total <= 1 and season > 2008

566	247-295-24 (0.17, 45.6%)	8.5	-$7,600	+$2,560	season = 2009
530	228-273-29 (0.28, 45.5%)	8.1	-$7,115	+$2,150	season = 2010
535	252-251-32 (0.19, 50.1%)	7.8	-$2,385	-$2,640	season = 2011
560	249-287-24 (0.38, 46.5%)	7.8	-$6,440	+$1,380	season = 2012
569	228-316-25 (0.01, 41.9%)	7.6	-$12,030	+$6,760	season = 2013
541	221-287-33 (0.01, 43.5%)	7.4	-$9,380	+$4,720	season = 2014
546	241-275-30 (0.26, 46.7%)	7.4	-$6,571	+$1,400	season = 2015
548	241-286-21 (0.09, 45.7%)	8.0	-$7,348	+$2,290	season = 2016
572	237-306-29 (0.00, 43.6%)	8.6	-$9,562	+$5,762	season = 2017

2576 - 2144
243 Units Profit

[nash13]

Complementary to that there is an Over system once the total line increased by exactly 1.
H and p:total - total = -1.0 and op:total - o:total = -1.0 and season > 2008 and season

199	103-85-11 (0.67, 54.8%)	9.4	+$1,145	-$2,830	season = 2009
209	104-97-8 (0.59, 51.7%)	8.9	-$10	-$1,890	season = 2010
188	89-82-17 (0.97, 52.0%)	8.6	+$100	-$1,700	season = 2011
192	92-90-10 (0.57, 50.5%)	8.7	-$460	-$1,355	season = 2012
189	97-88-4 (0.62, 52.4%)	8.4	+$220	-$1,985	season = 2013
150	78-70-2 (0.30, 52.7%)	8.3	+$345	-$1,635	season = 2014
164	91-64-9 (1.12, 58.7%)	8.2	+$2,115	-$3,752	season = 2015
213	122-82-9 (1.24, 59.8%)	9.0	+$3,311	-$5,306	season = 2016
178	100-73-5 (1.17, 57.8%)	9.4	+$2,255	-$3,697	season = 2017

+176 Units in the last 3 Years
Both Systems togehter +176
1 Units in the last 3 Years. But it is a Volume Betting System with nearly 800 Picks per year.

[VeggieDog]

[QUOTE=nash13;27625978]Complementary to that there is an Over system once the total line increased by exactly 1.
H and p:total - total = -1.0 and op:total - o:total = -1.0 and season > 2008 and season

199	103-85-11 (0.67, 54.8%)	9.4	+$1,145	-$2,830	season = 2009
209	104-97-8 (0.59, 51.7%)	8.9	-$10	-$1,890	season = 2010
188	89-82-17 (0.97, 52.0%)	8.6	+$100	-$1,700	season = 2011
192	92-90-10 (0.57, 50.5%)	8.7	-$460	-$1,355	season = 2012
189	97-88-4 (0.62, 52.4%)	8.4	+$220	-$1,985	season = 2013
150	78-70-2 (0.30, 52.7%)	8.3	+$345	-$1,635	season = 2014
164	91-64-9 (1.12, 58.7%)	8.2	+$2,115	-$3,752	season = 2015
213	122-82-9 (1.24, 59.8%)	9.0	+$3,311	-$5,306	season = 2016
178	100-73-5 (1.17, 57.8%)	9.4	+$2,255	-$3,697	season = 2017

+76 Units in the last 3 Years
Both Systems togehter +176
1 Units in the last 3 Years. But it is a Volume Betting System with nearly 800 Picks per year.[/QUOTE]


Holy crap. 2400 picks and you're only up 76 units? A dartboard would be better.

[nash13]

[QUOTE=VeggieDog;27625986]

Complementary to that there is an Over system once the total line increased by exactly 1.
H and p:total - total = -1.0 and op:total - o:total = -1.0 and season > 2008 and season

199	103-85-11 (0.67, 54.8%)	9.4	+$1,145	-$2,830	season = 2009
209	104-97-8 (0.59, 51.7%)	8.9	-$10	-$1,890	season = 2010
188	89-82-17 (0.97, 52.0%)	8.6	+$100	-$1,700	season = 2011
192	92-90-10 (0.57, 50.5%)	8.7	-$460	-$1,355	season = 2012
189	97-88-4 (0.62, 52.4%)	8.4	+$220	-$1,985	season = 2013
150	78-70-2 (0.30, 52.7%)	8.3	+$345	-$1,635	season = 2014
164	91-64-9 (1.12, 58.7%)	8.2	+$2,115	-$3,752	season = 2015
213	122-82-9 (1.24, 59.8%)	9.0	+$3,311	-$5,306	season = 2016
178	100-73-5 (1.17, 57.8%)	9.4	+$2,255	-$3,697	season = 2017

+76 Units in the last 3 Years
Both Systems togehter +176
1 Units in the last 3 Years. But it is a Volume Betting System with nearly 800 Picks per year.[/QUOTE]

Holy crap. 2400 picks and you're only up 76 units? A dartboard would be better.

I guess you are not reading it the right way.
176 Units Profit in 3 years with 7.7% Yield 2221 Picks.
If 7% Yield is not enough in 2000+ selections then nobody can help you.
I typed 76 instead of 176. but you get the numbers.

[VeggieDog]

Ok. Best of luck to you.

[nash13]

Ok. Best of luck to you.

thanks. just shared it to know if people have other conditions to look at.

[Bsims]

Nash13, interesting "data mining" find. I'll certainly take a look at it in a couple of weeks when I can turn my attention back to baseball. Out of curiosity, can you think of any logical explanation as to why this might be true?

[Waterstpub87]

Nash13, interesting "data mining" find. I'll certainly take a look at it in a couple of weeks when I can turn my attention back to baseball. Out of curiosity, can you think of any logical explanation as to why this might be true?

If it is actually true, it could be latency in the lines. Consider: Yankees offense is over rated. Bookmakers continuously set the total too high. Sharp betters hit the under moving it down. It takes a while for the bookmaker to adjust. Leaving opportunities in assuming that line will be continued to be bet downwards.

I find it hard to follow these things, because they don't specify opening or closing lines on the backend, as in which one is bet to generate the results.

[nash13]

If it is actually true, it could be latency in the lines. Consider: Yankees offense is over rated. Bookmakers continuously set the total too high. Sharp betters hit the under moving it down. It takes a while for the bookmaker to adjust. Leaving opportunities in assuming that line will be continued to be bet downwards.

I find it hard to follow these things, because they don't specify opening or closing lines on the backend, as in which one is bet to generate the results.

that's the main problem with any system you take. if you choose to use metrics to determine winners then everything depends on timing and value of the bet. if you assume that the lines from sportsdatabase are actually playable, then it is value nevertheless.

[chilidog]

A 6% yield doubles your money annually. With a 7.7% yield, that's a 143.55% annual return. So, a $10,000 starting bankroll in 2018 turns into $24,355 at the end of the MLB season. End of 2019 season, you have $59,316. End of 2020 season, you've turned your $10k starting roll into $144,464.

It's the power of compounding. Sports bettors see that they'd have to grind out 800 MLB bets in a year for 3 years and ONLY make 176 units. They don't see what can really happen.

Problem is most sports bettors are too impatient to handle the grind, so they never grow. They keep it as recreational only, and never end up making any serious money from it.

I guess you are not reading it the right way.
176 Units Profit in 3 years with 7.7% Yield 2221 Picks.
If 7% Yield is not enough in 2000+ selections then nobody can help you.
I typed 76 instead of 176. but you get the numbers.

[nash13]

A 6% yield doubles your money annually. With a 7.7% yield, that's a 143.55% annual return. So, a $10,000 starting bankroll in 2018 turns into $24,355 at the end of the MLB season. End of 2019 season, you have $59,316. End of 2020 season, you've turned your $10k starting roll into $144,464.

It's the power of compounding. Sports bettors see that they'd have to grind out 800 MLB bets in a year for 3 years and ONLY make 176 units. They don't see what can really happen.

Problem is most sports bettors are too impatient to handle the grind, so they never grow. They keep it as recreational only, and never end up making any serious money from it.

Very accurate point, you'll never know if the bookies wake up or the system may loose its edge. Betting psychology is another important factor, betting 1 unit which equals 100$ should be the same as betting 1 unit as 10000$, but it never is.

[Barrakuda]

What does SDB say it uses for its line source? Pinnacle closers?

[nash13]

What does SDB say it uses for its line source? Pinnacle closers?

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/handicapper-think-tank/2179072-sportsdatabase-lines-reliable-sdql.html

in the google groups there is no clear information.

[pilebuck13]

So just so I’m clear because I’m dumb:
Yankees Red Sox total 8 then next day Red Sox yankees 7 total take the under? And are you going by previous closing number or open number? And if say they yankees both play a different team the next day and the total is 1 under the previous game bet the under?

[Barrakuda]

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/for...able-sdql.html
in the google groups there is no clear information.

Thanks. Unfortunate that their data has not been validated.

[nash13]

So just so I’m clear because I’m dumb:
Yankees Red Sox total 8 then next day Red Sox yankees 7 total take the under? And are you going by previous closing number or open number? And if say they yankees both play a different team the next day and the total is 1 under the previous game bet the under?

The data is not mine, i am going by the numbers sportsdatabase offers. It is easy to go there pre game and check the numbers for yesterday and today. The second question:
Team A plays Team B the night before total was 8.0
Next night they play again and if the total is 7.5 or 7.0, i would take the Under.
If Team A and B go and played different teams the night before:
Team A had night before total of 8
Team B had 8.5
then they meet each other in SG 1, if the total is 7.5 i take under, because both teams line dropped by 0.5 to 1.
if the total is 8 or 7 then there is no bet for me.
The main logic assumption here is for me that bookies are overestimating a small drop in scoring.

[nash13]

Thanks. Unfortunate that their data has not been validated.

i take it like it is, and i have good success with what they offer. it is not perfect, far from for me, but for free you can not find anything better to start from.

[Barrakuda]

i take it like it is, and i have good success with what they offer. it is not perfect, far from for me, but for free you can not find anything better to start from.

In general does it seem like they are using Pinny closers?

[aljack]

This system obviously works best for squares in a series of games.

So if:
Game 1 (Jays/Yankees) TOT = 8.5

Game 2 TOT = 7.5
Take the under.

Game 3 TOT = 10
Stay off.

Game 4 TOT = 8.5
take the under.

Am I right here ??

I am just trying to simplify.

[nash13]

This system obviously works best for squares in a series of games.

So if:
Game 1 (Jays/Yankees) TOT = 8.5

Game 2 TOT = 7.5
Take the under.

Game 3 TOT = 10
Stay off.

Game 4 TOT = 8.5
take the under.

Am I right here ??

I am just trying to simplify.

In fact SG = 4 has no value over time. the value increases from 1 to 2 and 3. with 3 at most.

[aljack]

In fact SG = 4 has no value over time. the value increases from 1 to 2 and 3. with 3 at most.

Okay so, the best value in this system is in game 2 and 3 of a series.

I like that concept alot. I will forsure test this out this season.

[aljack]

The data is not mine, i am going by the numbers sportsdatabase offers. It is easy to go there pre game and check the numbers for yesterday and today. The second question:
Team A plays Team B the night before total was 8.0
Next night they play again and if the total is 7.5 or 7.0, i would take the Under.
If Team A and B go and played different teams the night before:
Team A had night before total of 8
Team B had 8.5
then they meet each other in SG 1, if the total is 7.5 i take under, because both teams line dropped by 0.5 to 1.
if the total is 8 or 7 then there is no bet for me.
The main logic assumption here is for me that bookies are overestimating a small drop in scoring.

Just to clarify

If the logic was that the bookies are overestimating a small drop in scoring.
Wouldn't you take the over instead ??

I mean, I assume if you take the under - you would be counting on the bookies underestimating a large drop in scoring ??

Just wondering. Not disagreeing.

[nash13]

Just to clarify

If the logic was that the bookies are overestimating a small drop in scoring.
Wouldn't you take the over instead ??

I mean, I assume if you take the under - you would be counting on the bookies underestimating a large drop in scoring ??

Just wondering. Not disagreeing.

Yes for sure, it works both ways, they are underestimating the scoring drop, they expect it to drop slowly, but it drops even more.
I had a look of the status of the game before
if the previous total margin was under 0 so an Under game:

2041-2473-236 (0.10, 45.2%)

avg total: 7.9

over / under: -$66,382 / +$24,289

ROI: -12.7% / +4.6%

if the previous total margin was over 0 so an Over game:
OU:2006-2454-247 (0.15, 45.0%) avg total: 8.0 over / under: -$69,949 / +$28,536 ROI: -13.4% / +5.5%

so it did not matter if the previous game went over or under the total, the bookies or whoever makes the lines may have their reasons to decrease the totals. why? i don't really know

[A4K]

Does baseball have the most volatile totals of the 4 major sports?