Fundamental principles to win constantly?

**MrX** · 09-15-09, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by Unitage

this WAS looking to be a real solid thread its now turned into shat.

It was never really looking that solid, but the entertainment factor went way up when GC got here.

**20Four7** · 09-15-09, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by GELATINOUS CUBE

sorry, Karayilan. LT Profits, thanks for the picks, I use your picks some times!

Guys, I doubt we'll get an answer from RS, 24-7, or the other guy. Probably just a dick-ass comment.

I"m sorry I"m stupid..... I only hit 55%...... If you think that because a line is -215 has better value than -200 because -200 are week and -215 is strong your an idiot. I think you should put your beer googles back on and have another.

**20Four7** · 09-15-09, 07:07 PM

Originally posted by GELATINOUS CUBE

24/7, depotro, r.s. do you guys have any links to a winning record of like 67 or 70%? For a season, or even a month? Since I'm so stupid and my advice is so dumb. Where can I see your guys winning record, like the soccer guy Koboladav. And whats your answer to Rizzlas q?

I could never claim to have a record like that because the person who says he hits 67 to 70 is an idiot. He can't hit that over time. Your looking up my posted picks in the best bet forum. so I"ve posted 160 picks have a winning record and sitting 14 or so in there and i'm NFG. Post some of your own shit dude and see where you come out.

And do you think I post everything here? Some of the best cappers here don't post anything or very minimal.

I agree with MrX that this thread wasn't going to be solid but certainly got more entertaining with GC here.

**Joe Dogs** · 09-15-09, 08:53 PM

Thank's for the tip cube,I'm laying off the +170s

**Karayilan9** · 09-15-09, 09:16 PM

Being able to control your emotions, impulses and irrational behavior, these are the biggest enemy of anyone who wants to be a good capper.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 09-15-09, 09:44 PM

Entertainment should be reserved for Player's Talk. I certainly hope no one heeds the advice of GC.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 09-16-09, 01:57 PM

Please refrain from posting in the Think Tank, GC. Seriously.

**MonkeyF0cker** · 09-16-09, 02:22 PM

This isn't a subforum for posting $12 tickets. It's intended for discussing handicapping theory and strategy. Please take that stuff to the appropriate subforum(s).

**reno cool** · 09-16-09, 04:27 PM

no one's saying you can't go 50-30 or whatever. People post brilliant records like that here all the time. And in 2 weeks they get cold and you never see them again. Such is the nature of gambling and randomness. You think you can go 500-300?

**LT Profits** · 09-16-09, 07:02 PM

This thread seems to have been cut in half.

**GELATINOUS CUBE** · 09-17-09, 02:53 AM

Thanks willie bee.

FOR DELETING MY IDIOTIC STUPID CRAPPY FORMULA FOR GOING ABOUT 67% YEAR ROUND.

.

**LT Profits** · 09-17-09, 03:15 AM

It wasn't deleted Cube, all your posts are in Players Talk.

**LT Profits** · 09-17-09, 03:18 AM

Never mind

**bekkala57** · 09-17-09, 02:35 PM

Awesome advice and ideas. I think I will use the unit system. How are you making your picks? Are you doing it yourself or depending on others? My problem now is finding someone that is good enough to follow daily w/ picks w/o paying tons of money for their lousy picks. Any advice?
thanks, john

**GELATINOUS CUBE** · 09-17-09, 10:47 PM

I can't find it lt, except for your link.

IT'S PRETTY MESSED UP THAT YOU CAN'T DELETE YOUR OWN POSTS ON THIS FORUM. I ASKED POLITELY FOR THE FIRST FEW POSTS EXPLAINING MY STRATEGY TO BE DELETED. entiendo?

RE:67%: I WAS THINKING ABOUT MY FEW DAYS WHERE I GET WORKED, AND BREAK-EVEN DAYS AND I FIGURED MORE OF A 62% IN THE LAST YEAR. I DON'T NEED TO LIE ABOUT THAT CRAP.

FOR THE RECORD 62% = A VERY SMALL PROFIT CONSIDERING HOW MUCH YOU BET. SO IF YOU BET $15,000, AT 62% YOU'RE ONLY WINNING ABOUT $18,000, FOR A $3000 PROFIT. TRY IT AND SEE.

HOW TO WIN CONSISTENTLY?, CAN'T REALLY SAY ON A BOOKIE-RUN WEBSITE.

**hova24e** · 09-21-09, 05:51 PM

Some solid info here........................

**Dark Horse** · 09-21-09, 06:42 PM

- Be careful who you spend time with in the gamblers world. It's rare for winning bettors to share their secrets (online), but if one does so, hang out with him. Don't waste time with losing players. If you're not getting better, you're getting worse.

**feltball** · 09-22-09, 08:45 AM

bet sizing ftw

**SportsJuggernaut** · 09-23-09, 07:19 PM

Originally posted by bekkala57

Awesome advice and ideas. I think I will use the unit system. How are you making your picks? Are you doing it yourself or depending on others? My problem now is finding someone that is good enough to follow daily w/ picks w/o paying tons of money for their lousy picks. Any advice?
thanks, john

Hi John,

I am the actual author of the system. I was actually very surprised to see it on this forum by browsing google for scorepage.. The content is actually copyrighted, and put here without my approval. But okey, i can agree to it being posted here as long as it is not being credited to someone else and the source is stated.. So if Rizzla would be so kind to edit this, i'll be okey with it.

To your questions:

I do my own analyzing and have done so for quite some time now. All the picks i present or play are based on my own analysis and the system was developed over time as i went through my trial and error period. I have always been striving to find a loophole through the betting industry, just to realize that those get covered really quick. I then focused on developing a system that suited my way of playing so that i could have an edge. Betting is a kind of chemistry, and you simply have to find your chemistry between the many factors consisting in the betting industry. Such as the basics of understanding your theoretical chances of making any wager (instance if you play to back a team to win, you have 33,33% of succeeding), and mixing it with the current quality of the teams present performance and finally choose the value in the pick.

If you're looking to find a service providing picks, there are plenty out there. Be sure to choose someone dependable to follow by checking that they supply you with records of their performances, that they have a working support and that they have a system to follow. You should also look to see if by following the system you can earn back the cost of the service and make a profit. It is also a good thing if they offer some kind of guarantee, not the kind of guarantee that says you will win 95% of your picks. If you see something like that i'd tell you to run and never look back. Other warning signals are services that offer you sure bets. These are non-existent as anything can happen during a match, make sure to remember that! Common sense, if it looks to good to be true, it probably is.

I offer a free daily picks service at scorepage.net as well if you'd like to try it.

**bruceBRUCEbruce** · 09-23-09, 08:42 PM

Originally posted by SportsJuggernaut

The content is actually copyrighted, and put here without my approval.

Spellcheck it first next time.

**SportsJuggernaut** · 09-24-09, 07:22 AM

Originally posted by bruceBRUCEbruce

Spellcheck it first next time.

Thanks for the advice, although the most relevant thing is the content i understand that misspellings are annoying. Nevertheless, it feels kind of bitter to find ones work that is yet to be polished out like this. I have written that system for the users of my service, and if it was to be published anywhere else i think it would've been in order to ask for permission. Those who have spent time developing something on their own probably know what i mean..

**feltball** · 09-24-09, 09:46 AM

Just bet 1% of bankroll on the bets you like.

**johnnyutah20** · 09-29-09, 05:05 PM

Well we all have our theories. My formula may be considered by some to be fairly rudimentary but I have been above 50% since the beginning of the football season 2009. I would love to hear everyone's thoughts. Maybe I'm way off, but what can I say? It's working.

My strategy is based on the principle that the opening line established by bookmakers is a number to be trusted (I know about sucker lines etc., but for the most part, the opening line represents a calculated number representing the most logical out come).

Now I use betus online. I go to the site covers.com, then go to odds, and throughout the week I watch for the largest possible difference in point spreads between the opening spread and the current spread on betus. I have noticed that a 3 point difference throughout the week is usually as high as it goes (sometimes more). The difference in the poinspread reflects the public opinion of the game (who people are betting on). I simply bet against public opinion and essentially get 3 points.

Now, I find 10 games I like (each having a spread difference from the opener of 3 or more) and bet on each of them straight up. My goal is simply to win more than I lose.

Week one I was 6 for 10, week two I was 8 for ten, and week 3 I was 8 for 10.

I never parlay, and I never tease.

Not sure if this is frowned upon or not, but I'm having a ball with it.

J

**poker_dummy101** · 09-29-09, 05:25 PM

Originally posted by johnnyutah20

Well we all have our theories. My formula may be considered by some to be fairly rudimentary but I have been above 50% since the beginning of the football season 2009. I would love to hear everyone's thoughts. Maybe I'm way off, but what can I say? It's working.

My strategy is based on the principle that the opening line established by bookmakers is a number to be trusted (I know about sucker lines etc., but for the most part, the opening line represents a calculated number representing the most logical out come).

Now I use betus online. I go to the site covers.com, then go to odds, and throughout the week I watch for the largest possible difference in point spreads between the opening spread and the current spread on betus. I have noticed that a 3 point difference throughout the week is usually as high as it goes (sometimes more). The difference in the poinspread reflects the public opinion of the game (who people are betting on). I simply bet against public opinion and essentially get 3 points.

Now, I find 10 games I like (each having a spread difference from the opener of 3 or more) and bet on each of them straight up. My goal is simply to win more than I lose.

Week one I was 6 for 10, week two I was 8 for ten, and week 3 I was 8 for 10.

I never parlay, and I never tease.

Not sure if this is frowned upon or not, but I'm having a ball with it.

J

The sharpest line is the closing line. This makes no sense at all.

**poker_dummy101** · 09-29-09, 05:30 PM

Originally posted by SportsJuggernaut

Thanks for the advice, although the most relevant thing is the content i understand that misspellings are annoying. Nevertheless, it feels kind of bitter to find ones work that is yet to be polished out like this. I have written that system for the users of my service, and if it was to be published anywhere else i think it would've been in order to ask for permission. Those who have spent time developing something on their own probably know what i mean..

I didnt read it so I dont know about the content, but if he stole all that from you and claims its his own that sucks

**johnnyutah20** · 09-29-09, 05:51 PM

Yes, If you assume that the average public betting one way or another is the most accurate.

**Joe Dogs** · 09-29-09, 08:33 PM

I always thought no one actually See's true odds-maker line's,the send out is skewed toward public perception.

**johnnyutah20** · 09-29-09, 09:14 PM

But the public has no perception of it until it's public.

**GELATINOUS CUBE** · 09-29-09, 09:40 PM

please stop posting.

**Joe Dogs** · 09-30-09, 06:57 AM

Originally posted by johnnyutah20

But the public has no perception of it until it's public.

**johnnyutah20** · 09-30-09, 10:38 AM

Sorry, Let me rephrase... You Said "I always thought no one actually See's true odds-maker line's,the send out is skewed toward public perception.

What I meant to say was, How could the line be skewed toward public perception before the public has even seen the odds. Are you suggesting that the bookmakers do a study of what the public thinks about a game before posting the spread?

**poker_dummy101** · 09-30-09, 08:46 PM

It has been stated numerous times in the think tank the sharpest line is the closing line. Why do you think pro handicappers look for EARLY lines? They want to get the offlines before they get corrected.

**johnnyutah20** · 09-30-09, 10:25 PM

Thanks. I do see your point. I came to this thread for the first time a few days ago, so I missed the conversation about the closing line. The process intrigues me and I've been trying to see things from different angles. So to sum up the the process, is it fair to say that the most accurate spread is generated by the mass public and not by the original bookmaker? Not trying to beat a dead horse here...just genuinely interested.

**TGHMak** · 10-02-09, 04:13 AM

I have to agree with that money management being the most important trait of a winning better. If you look at most people win/loss percentage it's almost always around 48%-55% but most of them end up losing big and winning small.

**Thremp** · 10-02-09, 01:20 PM

48% at -110 results in lol terribad winnings. 55% shopping for the best prices and using reduced juice is sexy McSexy growth. Lumping those two win % in the same epoch is terrible.