Fundamental principles to win constantly?

[Rizzla]

I considder this as a long shot, and i dont expect any or many serious answers, especially when i think the number of people on this forum who actually make a living on gambling or is constantly winning is very small.

But if you feel that you are in the small percentage that actually survive month after month with a + on your account, then i would love to hear your thoughts on the topic.

Links to related things as good BR management etc is welcome, i do understand that there is alot of facts except to choose the right team to win is allready written

So what helps you to go around?

Rizz

[LT Profits]

For beginners, just play as many rogue lines as possible.

[20Four7]

But LT it takes work to find those lines and the books that put them out. And if you keep hitting them you will get colared. But obviously certain books are more opinionated than others.

[Rizzla]

Hmm.. not quite expected answer LT.

Aspects that i'm intressed in from experienced and foremost winning players is:

*Bankroll management
*Units/% bet's
*Goal setting / Purpose
*Handling of disciplin / bad streak handling /
*What makes a good play
The list can be long, i spent half the night by watching several of justin7's clips on different topic's. Dont think a man/woman can handle knowledge to all kind of sports except if you have no life at all.So key fundamentals thinking / aspects that's helps you out is most welcome.

[Peep]

Be prepared for losing days, weeks, months.

This is done by

1) Psychological toughness. Bad beat after bad beat? "Get over it".
2) Bankroll. You want to have 100X your max bet ideally, 50X your max bet certainly. And have this as available money.
3) Keeping records. During a bad streak, know that "this too shall pass".

Winning is a bit easier to handle lol.

[Dark Horse]

I've always found it fascinating that western education has trained people to ask questions and then expect others to do the thinking for them.

Winning starts with thinking for yourself.

For the record, there's a difference between a simple specific question and a broad range of questions that basically asks others to write the book. If you want answers, go write the book. If that's too much to ask, you're probably too lazy to succeed in this field.

[Rizzla]

I've always found it fascinating that western education has trained people to ask questions and then expect others to do the thinking for them.

Dont re-invent the wheel if it's allready exist

Winning starts with thinking for yourself.

I really like that quote, one of my first understandings within sports wagering, but never put it down to one sentence. I'm steeling it and put it up on my vision board

For the record, there's a difference between a simple specific question and a broad range of questions that basically asks others to write the book.

To get every angel on a problem, you have to attack it from any way possible. You can win a war by dropping an A-bomb or you can tie up the Al Pacino character from the Casino movie in your basement ,pointing a gun to his head and make he do all the capping, right? But is that the way to go?

Thru comunication we can solve many problems/solutions, and thats what forums and discussion boards is all about. Maybe you only use it to show off or take a piss on one or another, i dunno.

If you want answers, go write the book. If that's too much to ask, you're probably too lazy to succeed in this field.

I have only been sports wagering for a year'n a half and i have been to the bottom on many subjects thru books. I have tried to bring the subject up on local bookie places, friends & forums in my small country etc. but when you talk about to play a $2000 wager, people just look at you if you camed from another planet cause they only live on the hope that one day, they will win that $10 million jackpot by playing 13 teams parlay on european soccer for $10.

If i dont ask, i will never know how other people thinks about the same subject. Of course you can learn things the hard way, been there, lost $50K on a few weeks wich was my whole bankroll (will set up my post on units right after posting this).

I'm up at $40k now wich is 75% of an average year salury in scandinavia, and for me it is alot of money. My personal goal without putting up a time frame on it is that i one day can buy a house cash. I'm serious about this, i will reach my goal one day But i have to step the **** up, sharpen the angels up, reduce the loss and make as most profit as i can wich has to be the purpose to achive future goals, and as i said, i have noone to talk about medium/small stakes gambling with so i will continue shoot questions out there, read everything of intrest and brush ppl like you of my shoulder

But as i said in the first post:

I considder this as a long shot, and i dont expect any or many serious answers

I have plenty of time to continue writing on my book, the post was and is still a shot in the dark.

[Rizzla]

Let me know if you think about this, then i can cross one question of my list

The unit system is probably one of the best systems (if not the very best) out there.

It is a money management system that makes you money when things goes your way, and when they don't it keeps your losses down.

A common problem the majority of bettors have is the lack of a good sturdy system, also known as money management.

Usually they will go with the flow, increasing their betting stake when they win and decreasing it when they lose. That is a common sense, and is the way one would normally do when investing in any other venture as well.

It is logical to place more money when you are winning, and less when you are losing.

There is a problem though. You can never predict when you will win or lose. If you could then you'd stay out of it when knew that you were gonna lose, right?

The thing I like saying is that it is drop-dead easy to win at sports, but the real problem is not to lose while doing so.

The betting companies, or bookies, know how to make you play a certain bet. They know how people react to the adrenaline gained when you win, and they love players who have that kind of reaction.

The reason they like that reaction is that they know it will lead you to place another bet, or another series of bets.

And the more adrenaline you have, the bolder you get. You can get the feeling that you will win no matter which match you chose to play, and you increase your stake.

You may go on winning another bet or two, but eventually you go bust.

And when this happens, you get a feeling that you are being chocked, you may even feel a cold sweat. That's what I choose to call falling of the cliff.

When this happens, you can easily start disbelieving in your capability to find the good picks.

You can then start looking for any “favorite” and start chasing your loss.

If you ever find yourself in this position, I'd advice you to pull the brakes! Take a few days to cool of. Don't even look at any sports or anything associated with betting or gambling until you feel you can start all over without chasing previous losses.

To avoid all that process of getting there, you will have to equip yourself mentally.

Before you choose to place any bet you should at least have a goal to aim for.

If you have a goal to win a lot of money in a short period of time, you most likely will get broke instead of getting rich.

Making money by betting sports is a challenge in itself. As mentioned earlier, it is easy to make money but keeping them is hard, and if you don't agree with that then you will likely learn it the hard way.

This is where the Unit system comes in.

Keeping focused

One particular problem most bettors have is that they never cash out. People seems to be focused only at the amount of money in their bankroll.

This often leads to people saying to them selves “I started out with 100, now I have 200. This means I can lose 90 and still be up by 10”.

This is when those peoples adrenaline kicks in and they lose their focus.

They feel that they can “afford” losing money, so they start to bet on irrelevant events, thinking they can sacrifice a little of their winnings to make an even greater profit.

The problem is that this type of behavior often leads to a loss of money. Even if they win a game or two with this thinking, they eventually hit a loss.

Having that much over-confidence in their selections, they go against their own common sense and make a series of bad bets that leads them in the wrong direction. For every loss, they get more desperate, chasing their previous losses.

This behavior is very common, so if you could recognize yourself in this situation, you are not alone.

This often happens to players without a goal and/or proper system (money management).

For this reason it is very important that you do not do to many things at a time. Have your goals and work towards them. If you get done with them, set new ones before placing another bet.

Why should I use the system?

To eliminate the adrenaline spoiling it all, you should have a cap that you never exceed.

This cap should always stay the same, no matter which game you play or how certain you are that you will win, there are simply no higher bets then the cap, PERIOD!

By having a cap you will ensure yourself never to make a bet that you later on come to regret. Even if all the statistics points you towards a win. Or a team is the favorite in any way (better team, form, need to win etc.) you need to remember that the players are no computers or numbers, they are simply humans.

The thing is that when you bet you can reflect to your cap if the adrenalin kicks in, but the football player can't.

Everyone have triggers that makes them less focused on the important things.

When it comes to a football player it can be anything from the referee making a bad decision to anything personal off the pitch.

That player can effect the entire team with his behavior. He can commit a penalty, get a red card, do multiple decisive mistakes or anything else unexpected to lose you the match.

These things happen regularly and there is nothing we can do about it but accepting it and move on.

It is of course easier to move on knowing you don't need to chase your losses, rather then losing a larger stake that will give you poor judgement by chasing it just to even the score.

Knowing why, next question is “how does this look like when applied”?

Although you have a cap to play after, you still can be making a common error.

Because you can never know for sure when you'll win or lose your units are flucuating all the time.

This is common among all those who are betting.

When you place more then one bet you can be more certain on one game then the others.

This usually is a mistake that many suffer from. The reason they suffer is that they put too much money on that one game and too little on the others.

This can also happen to those who has a cap as well.

Let's take an example.

You have found three games to play. One is Manchester United vs Aston Villa, the other two are West Ham vs Everton and Newcastle vs Middlesborough.

You feel that Manchester is a better team and should easily win at home, so you put $300 on a win at an odds of 1,40 to win $120.

The other teams are a bit harder to predict because you feel that they will have a closer competition. Because of that you will only be playing $50 on each.

The choices you make is for West Ham and Newcastle to win, and the odds you get for them is 2,10 and 2,05.

The outcome of these matches goes as follows:

Manchester draws 2-2, after having a lead 2-0 in the first half. Their star striker got injured 10 minutes in the second half. Then after fifteen minutes in the second half Man U gets a red card and gets a penalty against them when their defender tackles the opponent brutally. This gives the opponents a goal and the moral goes sky high, now that they have a chance to get a point in Man Us home arena.

The match later ends up 2-2, and you lose $300.

Those other matches goes your way, you win by the odd goal in both and receive a win of $107.

At the end of the day you've lost $193.

So why did it go so bad?

The reason that it was such a bad result is simply that it came in an over-belief in one selection and gave less attention to those other two.

Teams have some bad days, and opponents that they can't win for many reasons.

The example above could have yielded a win of $45 if that player have had both a cap and a .base

How that could've been achieved is by applying a unit system.

A unit system is common for all professional bettors making a living betting on sports.

It makes the fluctuation less, and keeps the bettors mind sharp by having a line to follow even in bad times.

This decreases bad bets that often leads into more bad bets, and eventually to the poorhouse.

Unit System

If we return to the example stated above we can see that a $45 profit could've been made (using a 2-4 unit system). This is why Scorepages Unit System is better then many other that you might have read about.

Similar systems are available out there, but they often recommend the units to stretch from 1-10.

For me it's obvious that a system like that gives to much fluctuation and is very sensitive to losses.

You would need ten wins by 1 unit picks giving you 2,0 odds just to break even. That's insane if you ask me!

I always recommend the least possible difference between the base and the cap. Anything can happen during the 90+ minutes it takes for a football match to be played.

In fact, around 40% of the outcome ends in the favor for the underdog! 40% is a massive number!

A good handicapper has about a 56% strike rate, that's considered a great number among the cappers living on their bets.

Even if that sounds like a small number, a smart handicapper has always a way to profit from these 6% above 50 by choosing the right price and applying appropriate amount of money to invest.

An actual pro capper considers 60% strike rate to be an achievement of the year, it's that rare.

The reason is simple. A smart investor never tries to reach the stars by laying down all he's got to make him a profit, because if he loses, he's a goner.

A pro capper makes small efforts every day so that he can relax at night. He understands that there is always a day tomorrow and that he can make up for his eventual losses in time.

A savvy unit system is one that's making small wins almost everyday that adds up into a nice profit at the end of the month. Never really aiming for a big profit on a single bet makes one calm and opens ones eyes on the important factors in any competition. This also makes the whole business more pleasurable.

To avoid the fluctuation getting out of hand we are going to limit our base to 2 units, and our cap to 4 units.

This means that we never under any circumstances go above 4 units in any game and/or competition.

It also means that we never go below 2 units.

The only time we can cross these boundaries is if we play the sports exchange market (like for instance Betfair) under another system.

So how do we confirm a unit?

First let's see how we count units.

One unit represents one percent of the calculated bankroll. Let's say that you have a bankroll of $343.

To calculate one unit you take 343*0,01 which is equal 3,43. Make sure to round your numbers, in this case a unit is 3,40.

Take a pen and a piece of paper and write it down.

To make it easier for you, you should write down the following:

Units:

1 = 3,40

2 = 6,80

3 = 10,20

4 = 13,60

This will save you time and make it easier for you to remember which amount to bet.

This is how to take control of your bankroll and make it grow:

You will have to recalculate your units once a month.

If you want to go on forward with your results, you will have to update your units.

Updating them too often would have the same results as playing without a unit system, because you either win or lose more then you are used to. You have to feel comfortable when you recalculate your units and feel that you know what you are doing.

It is vital that you reward yourself each time.

After every month, when it's time to recalculate your units, you should take a percentage of your winnings as payment. Do something fun with your money and feel that your hard work has paid off.

This way you will feel that you are getting something out of your efforts and it will motivate you not to get unfocused and make any bets you don't want to.

After you've had your fun and made your recalculation, you would feel that a new month and a new challenge awaits you.

Now you would have a bigger unit, and you will feel that you have a goal when you place your bets.

Dictionary

Cap Maximum amount of money placed on a bet.

Fluctuate When results go up and down, like the stock market. Common thing in betting results is that one never knows the outcome before the game is finished.

Base Base is a staring point, or a certain point that is a foundation of something. In this case a certain amount of money least played at any bet.

Savvy Savvy is a word describing many. Examples are: apprehension, understanding, discernment, grasp, wise, etc. In general Sport Savvy is knowledge about sports. w

[Dark Horse]

You found a helluva quote writer.

The quality of the answer is determined by the precision in the question.

The quest is always the same. It starts with broad and general questions, and ultimately, through a process of trial and error, we are suddenly able to ask a very precise question. At that point the stunning answer is just around the corner.

Many no's to get to one yes. Throw it out, boil it down, and keep it simple.

[Rizzla]

You found a helluva quote writer. The quality of the answer is determined by the precision in the question. The quest is always the same. It starts with broad and general questions, and ultimately, through a process of trial and error, we are suddenly able to ask a very precise question. At that point the stunning answer is just around the corner. Many no's to get to one yes. Throw it out, boil it down, and keep it simple.

I'm a big fan of Napoleon hill, steven covey, Tony Robbins amongst others, and as you say, keep it simple is an good answer instead of brain f-cking your self.

I will try to get more accurat and precise in future questions, but i will let the word stand open on the topic, lightning can strike I give you 3 pizza points for i like the way of your thinking!

[RickySteve]

Al Pacino wasn't in Casino.

[Justin7]

For beginners, just play as many rogue lines as possible.

I wouldn't dismiss this so quickly...

[Rizzla]

Al Pacino wasn't in Casino.

My bad, Robert d.Niro it is, allways mixing them up.

I wouldn't dismiss this so quickly...

I thought i knew what rouge lines ment earlier, but now i cant define what it is due to that i'm not into Eng/U.S sports lingo.
My Norwegian/English dictionary says rogue/criminal. So what is a rouge line, criminal low odds?

[donnaq6203]

LOL @ Rizzla

[reno cool]

Don't confuse yourself with bankroll management. First, figure out how to get an edge. Often you have to discover something original to do this. Or as LT says you can look for out of whack lines.

[durito]

i disagree

don't reinvent the wheel. figure out what other people do and do it or improve on it.

[MadTiger]

Rogue lines are lines that are away from the others.

If most sportsbooks have Team A -7, and you see Team A -5 for football, that is a GIGANTIC difference. It crosses the 7-point threshold, and it is 2 full points. That would be a rogue line.

[floridagolfer]

Discipline, discipline, discipline.

[Rizzla]

LOL @ Rizzla

Yea, i'm pretty confused

Rogue lines are lines that are away from the others. If most sportsbooks have Team A -7, and you see Team A -5 for football, that is a GIGANTIC difference. It crosses the 7-point threshold, and it is 2 full points. That would be a rogue line.

Ah ok, any easy tool or web page that compares lines?

Discipline, discipline, discipline.

I have a big note saying that next to my computer Also started to use the sbr spreadsheet that also helps alot imo that i'm actually putting my head out there to show what my pk's are. Think that i think twice or even three times before placing my bet's from now on and leave the spontanius live bets behind

I see both agrees and disagrees here now, i like it, discuss

[Justin7]

One tool is right here, and free: SBR Lines.

http://www.sbrodds.com/LinesWebsite/Lines.aspx

[Rizzla]

One tool is right here, and free: SBR Lines. http://www.sbrodds.com/LinesWebsite/Lines.aspx

Really nice tool, is that SBR's own script?
Would be nice to add a few more sportbooks and sports to compare lines

[Karayilan9]

Fundamental principles to win constantly? Pick winners

Other than that in short, don't deceive yourself that this is "just a hobby", or that "I'm just doing it for fun", if you want a hobby go play sunday league soccer, play golf, go fishing or whatever hobby you find but treat capping as you would treat any other business, take it seriously, cap seriously, put in the work and effort. Write a code of conduct, a set of rules and abide the laws.

[G's pks]

do not overbet... know when to call it a night... bet on teams where you actually know something about the sport...if you do not know any players on the team...you know you deserve to lose... also betting tv games just to bet...

Adding bets onto a losing night...usually at this point you should have waited till tomorrow...

[username474]

1)You have to love what you do.
2)Working ten hours a day should not be a chore, I wake up every morning and feel blessed that I am doing what I want to do.
3)Exercise,meditation and eating healthy.
4)Be honest with yourself at all times.
5)Figure out at what time of day you are the most focused and make your most importent decisions during that window.
6)Don't watch the games you wager on. Watch them after you know the results. (TiVo)
7)Don't allow yourself many outside distractions. Pick your women carefully.
8)Get three tv's and every sports package and watch six games a day.
9)

To make it easier for you, you should write down the following:
Units:
1 = 3,40
2 = 6,80
3 = 10,20
4 = 13,60 I don't know maybe this works for Euro sports but this will get you broke betting U.S. sports. Betting 2% of your bank with a 40k BR is plenty. Move up your bet size after every 5 units gained.
10)

[username474]

10) Every team has a catalyst find out who it is. When thier playing above their mean the team follows.

[MadTiger]

Goodstuffandremindersespeciallyfromusern ame474BUMP

[Unitage]

40k BR now that would be the life my friend.

[DukeJohn]

don't reinvent the wheel. figure out what other people do and do it or improve on it.

There is your answer to success in this industry, at least in my book...

[Joe Dogs]

Always look for lowest vig possible,if your playing 20cent line in bases your paying to much.If you don't have a book with reduced juice find one that does.Definitely look into a matchbook account.Its hard enough to grind out a profit in this game,why pay more vig if you don't have to.This all affects the bottom line.........Your bankroll!

[RickySteve]

Please stop posting.

[20Four7]

Please stop posting.

I thought it was just me thinking that.. What is this crap... +170's always lose, +180 is good. That ain't even close to capping.....

[Joe Dogs]

> I like -120s. its like duh, this is gonna win, but we can't make it any more expensive. Pound Those.
>-200s are weak.
>-210 is like always a winner. -225 also,
>+180s are good, +170s always seem to lose.

[Hybris]

> I like -120s. its like duh, this is gonna win, but we can't make it any more expensive. Pound Those.
>-200s are weak.
>-210 is like always a winner. -225 also,
>+180s are good, +170s always seem to lose.

[Peeig]

"" Nerds that work for online sportsbooks. I guess for saying online books are for losers only.
I'm sure all these guys are all Justin7, but. Okay.

-200s, favorites that have their best pitcher, but crappy offense, or in Hockey are usually week. They don't cash 60-70% And then if they don't move, So -215, -225 cost a little more, but cash way more. I'm into cashing my big bets, not talking about 'unit management.'

+170 sometimes win. I'm trying to think, +175s win more though. You guys don't bet for a living, so you wouldn't know. It's not handicapping, ok. Certain money lines do better than others. Um, I guess I should start betting like everyone else, and losing like everyone else. Definitely don't look at matchups from creative angles, because you don't want to get laughed at.

You guys just keep dreaming about being a pro gambler. Oh boy, its going to be so fun, you'll have money and women, and big cigars and you can wear gay polo shirts.

When does your book come out?

[Unitage]

can a mod just delete all of this guys posts?
Its gotta be either a joke or....

this WAS looking to be a real solid thread its now turned into shat.